Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. William?
    First of all – love the eggshell blue, but navagating the thread, I’ll be honest – I feel like a drunk baby trying to fly a helicopter. So anyway, is there a poll tonight?

  2. FMD… Lateline has two guests in a row who think cutting corporate taxes is a grea idea. – “fair and balanced” indeed!

  3. Not complaining; it fun to watch; but do the guys doing this upgrade know that you can run a test server and a production server; and it’s very very unusual to do development on your production server.

  4. I’d doubt it, Nina. And another reminder – if you’ve posted a comment and find yourself back at page one of the thread, the thing to do is to seek out the first comment in the thread, which is a link back to this page. Hopefully we can get this problem sorted tomorrow.

  5. [Like Laura’s final point that Labor has decided it has nothing to lose so is being ‘different’]

    That is certainly true. What they still miss, although Megalo (I think) almost touched on it, is that the voters actually want politicians who stand for something; not who walk away from what they stand for. Of course, the parties have to stand for things that appeal or at least make sense to the electorate at large and, especially, to non-committed voters while keeping faith with the voters committed to their principles.

    I really think voters have had enough and want a party that shows it is ready to govern; not just tells the country that they are, while hyperventilating about the other side. Notice that Bill Shorten and Labor have not been making outlandish claims about the Government’s proposals and policies – unlike the ridiculous scare campaigns conjured up by the Government about Labor.

  6. JimmyDoyle
    [FMD… Lateline has two guests in a row who think cutting corporate taxes is a grea idea. – “fair and balanced” indeed!]
    We have:
    – people who support lower corporate taxes based on a “trickle down” theory
    – people who support lower corporate taxes based on a “trickle up” theory
    Or basically:
    – people who want lower corporate taxes and then seek a theory that supports their preference

  7. I just had to email the Poll bludger developers (product @ crikey etc) about today’s changes. Without repeating it all here, my three main points were:

    Please undo today’s change to the comment time stamp, and revert to an actual date and time.
    Please change the comment header to include a comment number.
    Please ask and then listen to William Bowe about his posters and how they are liking these changes.

    I encourage everyone here to provide feedback to the same email address.

  8. The real fun in the High Court will start tomorrow, when Mr King will be trying to argue that the Constitution requires the use of the Hare quota rather than the Droop quota for Senate elections. This is devastatingly rebutted in the Commonwealth’s submission, at http://www.hcourt.gov.au/assets/cases/s77-2016/Day_Def2-subs.pdf. Mr King’s argument that the Droop quota leaves some voter’s “unrepresented” is little more than an extension of the principle that a child’s birthday party will be a failure if one of the little guests goes home without a packet of lollies.

  9. I think the High Court is far more interested in being a trumped up Refugee Review Tribunal than being a serious constitutional court!

  10. When I provided feedback to the developers I am afraid that I suggested among other things that they talk with Musrum re: how he has got things to work in the past with the CCCP scripts.

  11. That democracy guy on #qanda said something very telling:

    It is not the 80% who support policy that count to the politicians … it’s the 1.5% of swinging voters that hold sway.

    I’ve always kinda thought that but didn’t look at it in quite the same way

  12. Jen, the way I took that is that if an issue has 80% support but isn’t a vote changer, and 20% opposition with 1% who will change their vote on that issue alone, then the opposition wins.

  13. Victoria,
    That CARP video you linked is seriously out there. Windsor must have wet himself laughing while watching that.

  14. I watched Q&A tonight for the first time in ages. The panel was pretty good, apart from Pru Goward. I think she was being too partisan for this panel, especially without an offsetting progressive politician. Having said that, I think Tony Jones was rude to her at times.

  15. It looks like we are going to see some increasingly desperate performances from the Deputy Prime Minister as his seat slips away from him.

  16. It looks like we are going to see some increasingly desperate performances from the Deputy Prime Minister as his seat slips away from him.

    I was wondering why the local supermarket had run out of popcorn.

  17. To those who are joining us this morning, we have an issue on the site, which I can only hope will be corrected shortly, where you get taken back to page one after you leave a comment. Three ways of navigating your way back after this happens:
    a) You will find that the very first comment on the first page of the post is a link back to this comment;
    b) You can get here reasonably quickly by simply going to the main page of the site and opening the post afresh, which brings up the most recent page; or
    c) You can simply click “back page” in your browser after leaving your comment, then click “refresh” to bring the page up to date.
    To mitigate this issue (I think), I’ve set it so that each page contains 100 comments rather than the usual 50.

  18. Thanks William.

    And this too shall pass.

    Surely the people responsible for this coding realise what a mess they are making with their little games?

    I would have to wonder is there anyone in charge of the sandpit?

  19. Good Morning
    QuentinDempster: It would be regrettable symbolism if ABC MD Michelle Guthrie’s first decision was to axe the Fact Checking unit. Advantage: liars/deceivers.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Martin explains again how the budget is being propped up by Abbott’s “zombie” measures from 2014.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-tony-abbotts-zombies-add-billions-to-malcolm-turnbulls-first-budget-20160502-gok2hr.html
    Will the budget attempt to blunt Labor’s policies announced earlier?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-scott-morrison-to-raise-billions-through-multinational-tax-crackdown-20160502-gok4c8.html
    The SMAH editorial describes the budget as Morrison’s delicate economic balancing act.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/scott-morrisons-delicate-economic-balancing-act-20160502-gojpsu.html
    Peter Hartcher on the broken US political system. As for introducing compulsory voting I just can’t see the Yanks accepting it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/american-voters-are-angry-with-the-system-but-mandatory-voting-could-be-the-solution-20160502-gok02k.html
    What a charming outfit is 7-Eleven!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/7eleven-worker-whose-claim-was-rejected-worked-at-stores-with-payroll-issues-20160502-gojzhs.html
    Labor continues its pursuit of Arfur over the rinsed political donations.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/scott-morrisons-delicate-economic-balancing-act-20160502-gojpsu.html
    Lawyers are set to rally against the cuts to legal aid.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-lawyers-to-rally-over-legal-aid-shortfall-20160502-gojwhj.html
    How could Starbucks make their coffee any weaker than what it is?
    http://www.goodfood.com.au/good-food/food-news/starbucks-iced-coffee-contains-too-much-ice-not-enough-coffee-lawsuit-claims-20160503-gokib4.html
    Rudd couldn’t get the gig could he?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-rudd-given-glowing-endorsement-by-lord-nicholas-stern-for-top-united-nations-job-20160502-gokiev.html
    Barnaby made a fool of himself at QT yesterday. Again!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/carping-on-and-on-a-bit-of-brouhaha-before-the-budget-whenever-that-might-be-20160502-gok430.html

  21. Section 2 . . .

    How Turnbull’s reticence to choose certain tax concessions overwhelmingly favour the to 10%.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-tax-concessions-turnbull-wont-abolish-all-overwhelmingly-favour-the-top-10,8945
    A budget preview from Urban Wronski.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/05/02/scott-morrison-a-budget-preview/
    Mark Dreyfus writes that our watchdogs should not have to fear attack.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/mark-dreyfus-au/our-watchdogs-should-not-have-to-fear-attack_b_9818540.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
    If you want to keep your breakfast down don’t read this from Peter Reith.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/an-average-budget-is-not-enough-it-must-address-australias-rising-debt-20160502-gojyf6.html
    The CBA’s approach to the Senate inquiry served to demonstrate just why we DO need a Royal Commission.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-approach-to-senate-inquiry-showed-need-for-royal-commission-into-banking-sector-20160502-gok3cl.html
    A sensible article about the submarine decision.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/myths-surface-over-australias-submarines-deal-with-france-20160501-gojpj8.html
    The outsourcing of detention centre management is more about maximising political distancing than it is about minimising costs. Google.
    opinion/refugee-centres-detention-contracts-outsource-risk-20160502-gok7tg
    More trouble for Stuart Robert. Google.
    /national-affairs/sacked-minister-stuart-robert-in-cash-scandal/news-story/c829577f220641336ef39b51aff137e2
    Threats to investigative journalism continue to mount.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/threats-to-investigative-journalism-creep-closer-with-erosion-of-source-protection-20160502-gojvco.html
    Australian Marriage Equity is set to get involved in 30 seats this election. Including my man Briggs’ Mayo.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/03/australian-marriage-equality-to-target-coalition-seats-during-election-campaign
    Stephen Koukoulas proves that Labor’s economic record is better than the Coalition’s and they must make it count.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/02/labors-economic-record-is-better-than-the-coalitions-and-they-must-make-it-count
    “View from the Street” with some advice on the naming of our new icebreaker.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/could-australia-get-its-own-boaty-mcboatface-20160501-gojj8m.html

  22. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir brings out Turnbull’s cute little ticking time bomb again.

    MUST SEE! David Pope exposes the effects of the so-called efficiency dividends on Centrelink.

    Ron Tandberg warns us of what to expect soon.

    Mark Knight with some reassurance for the Treasurer.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/365d31cb75251a32b1e7006b832e342d?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    Some levity from Jon Kudelka.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/d1e3129fbbf75ac68588776a038c1321
    David Rowe and the excitement of budget day.

    First Dog on the Moon with an open letter to the detainees on Manus and Nauru.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2016/may/02/an-open-letter-to-the-asylum-seekers-on-manus-and-nauru-from-first-dog-on-the-moon

  23. cccp v 5.29 is up.

    Number of comments per page was hard coded (and was used for Better Comment Navigation).
    Set this to 100 as a config item. When William reverts you can do the same without waiting for me.
    Also: there is an issue with getting to page 1. This is server side.

  24. [B.C.
    6 hours ago
    I watched Q&A tonight for the first time in ages. The panel was pretty good, apart from Pru Goward. I think she was being too partisan for this panel, especially without an offsetting progressive politician. Having said that, I think Tony Jones was rude to her at times.]

    I agree. Goward was frowning , sulking, saw everything from the point of NSW and herself. TJ did cut her off a couple of times when she tried to speechify like a pollie.
    But MegoGeorge and Tingle on the same panel – joy!!

  25. I took particular note of Tingle’s comment that media organisations have dispensed with their expert writers (to save money?) and the journos left are generalists. That is why they report everything in terms of winning/losing, rather than analysing policy.

  26. Musrum thanks very much.

    However the quotes box still gives me the last post on the page rather than the one I was responding to.

  27. And thanks William for the link to the last page, it is a lifeline.

    I just got a message saying that I had not posted any comment. I’ll try pressing preview first.

  28. I don’t CCCP. I submit my post. It appears. I find myself 15 hours back in time. I click on the blue bits at the bottom of William’s post and lo! I am back where I started!

    My view is that Jesus should have gone for the really evil dudes and kicked the gerbils out of the Temple.

  29. I really had hoped (trusted) that PB would be fixed before Budget Day.
    (And to think that all I ever wanted was to get rid of ‘posting too quickly’ messages.)

  30. The argument for the $80K tax cuts the Right seem to be running atm (having inflicted a couple of SKY programs upon myself) goes like this —

    1. Anyone earning less than $80k gets so many kickbacks from the government they effectively pay no tax;
    2. Therefore the entire tax burden is borne by those earning over $80k.

    Firstly, these arguments would be more convincing if they weren’t coming out of the mouths of people earning more than $80k.
    Secondly, if the entire tax burden is being carried by those earning over $80k, and we reduce their taxes, then surely that represents a drastic cut to revenue – when the same people are arguing that the budget needs to be brought back into balance.
    Thirdly (and obviously) the whole argument ignores the fact that governments raise revenue by means other than income taxes. Indirect taxes – such as the GST and petrol excise, to name a couple – impact on low income earners more.

    Worryingly, there seems to be a ‘the NDIS is an excellent policy….but can we afford it?” meme developing, coming from more than one Right wing commentator.
    To listen to them, you’d think the country was stony broke and sitting on a street corner.
    We are a rich country, and basically (within the bounds of reason) we can afford to do anything we want to do. We just have to understand that that comes at a price.

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