Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. When you are weak on the facts, pound the law.

    When you are weak on the law, pound the facts.

    When you are weak on both, pound the table.

    The Chief Justice asked an under-prepared barrister to stop pounding the table.

  2. And Page 7 is showing post #301 from Willaim, with the link to the most recent page, and Ruawake’s comment #302.

    This is seriously weird.

  3. Musrum – I’m unable to post while using CCCP, I get an “Error: please type a comment” message when I do. I’m able to post when I’ve got it turned off, though.

  4. Kevin,

    I would be very surprised if there was a newspoll tonight especially with the budget tomorrow night.

    My inclination would be to expect one following the budget which would canvass the usual good for me, not good for me etc etc questions as well as test the initial impact of the budget on voting intentions.

    Would seem to be a waste of time to have two in the one week just days apart.

    However, I well could be wrong.

    Cheers.

  5. Musrum – if you’re still around, STFU doesn’t seem to be working any more.

    Also, had to turn the latest CCCP off. I keep getting error messages when I try to post a comment!

  6. TPOF – I thought what Tingle said was absolutely excoriating of Turnbull – she said that people were very angry with Turnbull and that he was a “born-to-be-PM-in-his-mind up against a streetfighter.”

  7. William Bowe
    #349 1 min ago
    William, when I try to navigate to page 1, by clicking on the number 1, I get page 6. I can get page 2 and later, but not page 1.

    Wouldn’t this be a CCCP thing?

    Maybe you are right. I’ll try updating and see what happens. This must be so frustrating for you, William. It is not something that you should ever have to consider, it is very definitely not part of what you signed up for. My commiserations.

    And, to be frank, I have no idea whether this comment will ever appear, or if it will disappear into the great cloud in the sky, never to be seen again.

  8. [
    WWP, French CJ is one of the most courteous judges I have ever met – but he has a sharp brain and doesn’t like the Court’s time being wasted.
    ]

    Interesting to know. Don’t get me wrong I have no feelings for King, and I assume that all the comments that are hinting he isn’t up to it, ok Shellbell didn’t hint, are on the money.
    I still don’t think there is any need for the whole naughty school boy routine from the bench. I know it is endemic normalised behaviour in the courts, it is just something I object too. Mr King for all his abundant faults is entitled to appear.
    As for the valuable courts time, if this was a criminal damage (firecracker in letterbox) case, I’d fully support the magistrate keeping things ticking over, and moving, politely, the lawyers along. This isn’t a minor criminal matter. Deciding constitutional cases is one of the courts reasons for existence and the whole damn court can spare a few hours from their golf courses. It may well be the most important decision they make in the year, if not longer. If the CJ is really smart yes he doesn’t need long submissions at all, he’ll have correctly anticipated most of the submissions on both sides and only needs to stay awake to spot anything new or unexpected and persuasive, in many ways it is all just a charade, so that justice is seen to be done, surely the most important constitutional case in a long time case let the spectacle stretch out a little so the bench could avoid looking like arrogant pompous gits.

  9. Musrum, the easy quotes is not working for me. I get my last post at the moment (also the last in the thread as it now stands if that is significant) instead of the post I wanted to reply to.

  10. JD @ 344

    I thought that she felt that these people were being unfair to Mal because he was stuck with trying to sell the GST when Abbott and Hockey had not done the work. So she thought he was hard done by because he had inherited a government that had wasted two years doing nothing.

    This misses the point that when we go to the polls we do elect a party, not a president, to power and mostly the same clowns are in Turnbull’s government as were in Abbott’s government.

  11. Wow Tingle is on fire tonight – laying some of the blame on the media and journalists who cover politics as a soap opera.

  12. and now i’m getting a message that i haven t posted a comment when i post?? repeatedly but not always?? Malicious Gerbils have found a new “you are posting too fast” ????

  13. [When you are weak on the facts, pound the law.

    When you are weak on the law, pound the facts.

    When you are weak on both, pound the table.

    The Chief Justice asked an under-prepared barrister to stop pounding the table.
    ]

    I must have missed that little gem at law school, sounds like it comes from a bad movie. If the Chief Justice is as smart as I’m advised he is, he could have done whatever it is he did in a much more intelligent way.

  14. WWP, they’re letting the case stretch out for far longer than it deserves. It would be an important case if there was any substance to the arguments, but there isn’t. See Anne Twomey’s article at http://www.sydney.edu.au/law/slr/slr_38/slr38_2/SLRv38n2TwomeyBTHC.pdf If it was a special leave application rather than a case in the original jurisdiction it would have been dismissed “on the papers” as they can now do under the amended rules.

    In fact the new system will implement “directly chosen by the people” much better than the dreadful previous system with group voting tickets and preference whispering. Just remember to make your vote count as strongly as possible, whether you vote above or below the line, by numbering more than the minimum number of squares.

  15. ok.

    Yup there are probs with posting, getting bounced to the first page, but the page numbers telling me i am on the last page.

    upgraded to 5.28 cccp and got weird as at my post #349

    downgraded to 5.27 and that prob seems to have dissapeared.

  16. Latest posts on page 1 and page 1 staying 50 posts long and only relative time stamps makes keeping track of where you are nigh on impossible without rereading a whole bunch of posts. Can we go back to yesterday when pollbludger was only a bit broken? and was quite usable with cccp.

  17. TPOF – I guess from a pure policy point of view, which I think is the direction Tingle tries to take, it IS unfair to blame Turnbull for Abbott’s policy failures. However I agree with you that Turnbull is just as culpable for those policy failures.

  18. What an amazing coincidence – the person who helped devise the Coalition’s climate policy claims Labor proposal would increase power prices:

    Labor policy could increase power prices by 8% to 25%, economist says.
    Danny Price, who helped devise the Coalition’s climate policy, says Labor scheme to shut brown-coal generators would lead to higher prices.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/02/labor-policy-could-increase-power-prices-by-8-to-25-says-coalition-linked-economist

  19. [ Can we go back to yesterday when pollbludger was only a bit broken? ]

    Meh…..i kinda like the way things are developing even it we are not there yet. And many thanks to musrum for the hard work on cccp.

  20. imacca @ #350 1 min ago

    Can we go back to yesterday when pollbludger was only a bit broken?

    Meh…..i kinda like the way things are developing even it we are not there yet. And many thanks to musrum for the hard work on cccp.

    Imacca, if you like this ‘system’, you are in need of professional help.

    So am I, it is driving me crazy.

  21. “you are in need of professional help.”

    And you are not the first person to make that assertion Don.

    Although, on July 2 after Anthony (hallowed be his name) Green calls it…there will be a few RWNJobbies in the Libs need it more urgently….whatever the result. 🙂

  22. [The second problem with Senator Day’s argument is that, if it were to be accepted, it is also likely to invalidate the very system under which he was elected,21 including all Senate elections for over 30 years. Voters have had the option to express their vote above the line or below the line since this system was instituted at the 1984 election. The difficulty for Senator Day is to explain why that system was valid in 2013 when he was elected and why the recent Senate voting reforms have changed it so that it is now constitutionally invalid. ]
    I think this is the bottom line, although if the CJ is as smart as I’m told tonight he might be able to overcome this (obviously it might not help Day).
    It is, as that link shows, innately a politically issue and a politically charged issue, the whole ‘we are doing them a favour even hearing the case’ pompous legal insider routine is fundamentally out of place in this context; IMPO (in my pompous opinion).

  23. [Labor policy could increase power prices by 8% to 25%, economist says.
    Danny Price, who helped devise the Coalition’s climate policy, says Labor scheme to shut brown-coal generators would lead to higher prices.]

    If you shut all the units at the largest plant, then yeah, just maybe.

  24. Lol…….

    Outgoing Liberal MP Dennis Jensen has let fly on his party and the “faceless men and woman” who denied him another tilt at his seat.

    In a late night speech to parliament on Monday, Dr Jensen also declared the coalition the “worst economic managers”.

    The MP was dumped as the candidate for the suburban West Australian seat of Tangney after a bitter preselection battle won by Liberal state director Ben Morton.

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/02/21/59/outgoing-liberal-mp-lets-fly-at-party#O3DEBpgrTkeHx5Js.99

  25. so this poll was after subs and urban fireworks – ie after 150B ++ and no movement
    not bad – how much does a % point cost these days?

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