The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.
From all I have seen so far Mr Shorten’s budget reply speech is going to be more 2014 not 2015
Its also worth noting when the lockout starts and what time of analysis Oakes “bombshell” gets in political commentary. From what I can see from the ABC coverage its already sunk without trace.
“Under current policy settings, a pack of 25 cigarettes that costs $24.69 today will cost $29.91 in 2020. But under the changes announced by Labor, the price in 2020 would be $40.80.”
The difference is the estimated price in 2020. The tax is a percentage of the sales price.
guytaur,
Turnbull has a history of jumping in without making sure of his facts and without making sure every blow back scenario and option has been considered.
I am not that sure Turnbull and Morrison have not jumped the gun here again.
Big interest for me in the assumptions Treasury have applied to their analysis.
Cheers.
[Confessions
#198 1 min ago
Bluey reckons that only an idiot on the Labor side would deliberately dredge up Rudd. Plibersek dredged up Rudd.</blockquote?
Gawd, seriously? Total idiot move.]
It could have been worse.
Kenny starts with a jab at the ABC naturally.
Bowen on now.
BW @Psalm 130:
Amen.
[ Anyone who has issues with the site design is encouraged to raise them through an email to product@crikey.com.au. ]
Done. thankyou William.
victoria,
Exactly.
The PBO has a strict protocol and process for its analysis.
Interesting how the MSM had automatically jumped on labor being wrong and Treasury/ government correct.
Especially given the hard time the MSM has given Treasury regarding the poor budget forecasts over the last couple of years.
Very predictable.
Cheers.
Just saw Oakes report. Seems more like desperation on the part of the govt – Oaks says the supposed black hole will be tabled by the govt in tomorrow’s budget papers.
Fess
Many have asked the same question. Scary part. He is our current DPM
Bowen dealt with the black hole question well.
“PBO did labor’s modelling, I assume treasury did the govt’s modelling, I don’t know i haven’t seen the document or it’s assumptions”.
“Bottom line this is a smokescreen to hide the fact that the govt are copying labor’s policy”
Hmmmmm..re-installed cccp (on chrome), restarted browser and loggeg in again.
https://greasyfork.org/en/scripts/18677-crikeycleancommentpreview
Have gravitars, comment #’s, pages numbers….
Happy chappie.
View from the Street on the govt’s tax cuts:
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confessions,
The government better hope that in its haste to discredit labor it has not cocked this up completely.
The PBO was given plenty of time to forecast the labor policy. Treasury perhaps very limited time.
Cheers.
vic:
Joyce’s CARP, CARP, CARP
vic:
Joyce’s CARP, CARP, CARP crap was shown on the news. It didn’t look good. And JBishop in the background laughing like it was the funniest thing she’d ever heard looked even worse.
Tihs mob are filled with entitlement. They have no policies, no realistic plans for the future, nor any clue about govt. The Joyce clip just emphasised all that IMO.
Confessions
When in Opposition that query came up a number of times. Especially on a couple of occasions after a break during late sittings.
Thank goodness for social media including Twitter which can reach a wide audience. In previous years the Oakes ‘leak’ would have gone unchallenged and we would have had only the MSM to interpret the situation. Nowadays there can be rebuttals and clarifications within minutes and a lot of Twitter comments seem to end up in the MSM (if only to pad out articles).
[ The government better hope that in its haste to discredit labor it has not cocked this up completely. ]
Yup, that would be a bit of an egg meet face moment. Its entirely possible that it may be another BIS moment for ScoMo. It will all be about assumptions made in the modeling. You may find that Treasury has just applied the highest conceivable rate of smokers quitting in that model.
Anyway, we will find out since i am sure Mr Shouty Hard Man will go feral and probably over reach on this.
Doyley:
I guess we’ll see how this unfolds over the week.
Without jumping ahead of myself too much it will be interesting to see how Laurie Oaks will react if he has been dudded.
The treasury forecasting for the excise increase will take on a much more front and centre position tomorrow night.
Cheers.
In response to William’s #94, I have sent the following to product@crikey.com.au. Others might wish to confirm or disagree.
“my considered view of what the PollBludger Blog users want, based on comments over the past 2 weeks, is:
Comments in Oldest to Newest order.
Definitely NOT NOT NOT nested comment threads
Page Numbering that works (currently clicking on page 1 gives the last page, not the first, others ok)
Comment Numbering
Comment time shown explicitly not relative eg 17:24 EST 02/05/2016
Avatars showing
Comment entry boxes at top and bottom
Comment Preview available
Comment editing available, up to, say 10 minutes after posting.
square brackets interpreted as blockquote
WYSIWYG Comment entry parsing.
regards,”
For anyone interested, the transcript of today’s part of the Day v AEO for SA hearing is now up, at http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCATrans/2016/97.html King starts brilliantly with his confession that he was unaware of the requirement to file a 3-page outline (already reported by someone who was there, a few pages back). I really can’t make myself read it until I’ve had a nap (tired from today’s march) but I expect he kept up the high standard throughout. The full written submissions certainly made no sense, so why should the oral submissions?
poroti:
I have not forgotten that late Estimates sitting when we got ‘Barnaby’s Button’ thanks to Conroy and Quigley. Too funny!
Jackaranda what you have describe is price I elasticity. Elastic demand is when the percentage change in price results in a bigger percentage change demand
Yabba:
What is WYSIWYG Comment entry parsing.?
confessions
Acronym for What You See Is What You Get
Price I elastic = price inelasticity
It will also be interesting to see if some within Treasury do not appreciate being caught up in this political exercise and may be prepared to slip a bit of info especially if they are incriminated in some unrealistic forecast assumptions.
Cheers.
Fess
Agreed. They deserve to be kicked to the kerb
[Definitely NOT NOT NOT nested comment threads]
What is the thinking there, I would have gone the other way and every time a Rudd Gillard war or a green labor fight started they could follow each other down an largely unread threat?
WWP
Maybe people don’t like the Whirlpool nested thread format.
Are we back on Carp again?
As for tomorrow night, I hope Bill’s emails are more accurate than mine.
I have no corporate tax cut, but an aspiration in that direction.
I have more resources for the ATO (whether it is just putting back a little of what they’ve taken out, or something real I don’t know).
I have thin cap from 60 to 50.
All this will be drowned out by the tax cuts only to the 80k+ cohort, and if the deficit levy is to go as well to help the top bracket out a bit then they can’t win.
The super changes seem to be stuck in the flow not the pool and are likely to upset quite a few income rich but asset poor (you know knock people off the first rung of the ladder but don’t upset the really rich stuff).
Barnaby’s right about the carp, he just looked and sounded like an idiot saying it.
Thanks guytaur.
Airlines
Which is why Joyce is the star of the meme and not scientists.
Now its Four Corners time. Talk later
@JimmyDoyle, #255.
I would presume the MOE of the state level results would be quite wide so we probably can’t count many of those chickens.
From reading Jack A Randa’s post, King’s performance at the High Court today sounds like the poor bumbling Gil in the Simpsons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Wl4ZX4-ui8
FRENCH CJ: Well now, Mr King, I do not think we are really interested in hearing what I might call normative speeches. I think we need to hear your submissions in relation to the ways in which you say the impugned provisions contravene the Constitution and as I understood your first argument was that they prescribe more than one method of voting contrary to section 9 of the Constitution. It might help if we go to the nitty gritty rather than speeches which are best made outside this place
Re nesting. My view is that we should recognise that not all back and forth is Lab/Green or R/G drivel. The problem with nesting is that because people log on at highly variable times, unless they go back many pages to the beginning of a nested thread, they may never actually see it at all, because it will be buried three pages back, even thought the last reply was 5 seconds ago.
It also totally screws up comment numbering. Its adoption would require a radical relearning of the way in which they interact with the blog on the part of all who partake.
POROTI – The Joyce “Carp” speech was a truly nasty and vile attack on the labor party. I had to watch a bit of it to see that. But he was basically saying that Labor deserved to be destroyed like the ugly carp. The man really is a deranged animal.
Youse don’t get. It doesn’t matter whether Labor’s costings are accurate or not.
What matters is that the punters will just see this as yet another check-box ticked off in the Back-To-The-Future-2016-Is-The-New 2013 campaign.
“Carbon Tax”. “Boats”. “Debt & Deficit”. “Unions BOO!” And now… ” Labor’s costings wrong”.
Standard stuff, almost traditional. And boring.
The punters don’t believe the Liberals anymore. Too many lies, too many second chances. THEY’VE BEEN IN OFFICE FOR 3 YEARS AND DONE FUCK ALL.
The Australian people are like a battered wife. After the umpteenth battering, the wife doesn’t believe the hubby when he tells that THIS time he’ll get it right, for sure.
[Re nesting. My view is that we should recognise that not all back and forth is Lab/Green or R/G drivel. The problem with nesting is that because people log on at highly variable times, unless they go back many pages to the beginning of a nested thread, they may never actually see it at all, because it will be buried three pages back, even thought the last reply was 5 seconds ago.
It also totally screws up comment numbering. Its adoption would require a radical relearning of the way in which they interact with the blog on the part of all who partake]
Interesting point, and yes even a single nest (so effectively each top level comment could generate a linear thread on the topic of that thread but not a tree of threads) would probably need a ‘last 10 posts’ functionality which came and went a few years ago.
There’s no need to present threaded conversations in a nested way. All you need is a reply button for each post and an automatically generated back link at the top of your reply. You still see comments listed in time sequence, but the back link makes it easy to find your way back through who said what to who about what.
Post numbering is crazy at present.
New posts keep appearing and the last is always numbered #250.
The relative time stamps are useless. What they need are absolute time stamps and then if you really have to (in a lesser font) add the “xxx minutes ago”. But seriously, this isn’t twitter.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Perhaps the prospect of getting the royal order of the boot in the election has Barnyard a little “emotional” ? How sad.
Labor just has to say that it prefers the PBO number because it is less political. If the libs could get away with using a third-tier partisan accountancy firm in 2013 which just added up the numbers, Labor should have no trouble doing that.
And yes I’ve made all these comments to the official email address and so far received no acknowledgement.