The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.
Anyone who has issues with the site design is encouraged to raise them through an email to product@crikey.com.au. They are very keen to hear from the readership, and are not going to do so if you only raise your concerns through PB threads. There are two particular issues I would encourage you to raise, as I believe there may be certain misapprehensions as to how I have these things set up, and how the readers would like them to be set up:
– Would you prefer that comments be in chronological, or reverse chronological order?
– Should Poll Bludger have nested comments threads, in which you can reply directly to specific comments, so that your own response appears directly beneath it?
Test.
Joizus! My C@tmomma looks positively psychopathic towards her kitten!!!
Which some may say is appropriate I guess. 😉
Chronological and no nesting please William 🙂
Lots of comments have just disappeared down the crikey gerbils burrow.
I wouldn’t assume that Steve Price is right about there being a Newspoll tomorrow.
Hopefully Bowen has a decent explanation to clear all this up.
Offshore detention centers are out of control!!
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-02/second-refugee-sets-themselves-alight-on-nauru/7377710
Bulletin 42 Day 42 of 103
HEAD SHOT
Bluey reckons that, unlike the targets of snipers, politicians love head shots on the TV. This morning Blueys spent some time doing his healthy mind in a healthy body routine at the local gym. The gym features seven MSM screens, all of which are visible from the rowing machine. (Bluey reminds readers that he can scull a coxless eight all by himself). Anyhoo, Bluey counted the head shots. Talking heads featured the Liberals four to one. Bluey lost count of the head shots with house journo voice-overs but these were running at around 10:1 in favour of the Coalition. Bluey reckons that the MSM is dancing to the Coalition’s tune.
REBADGE OF DISHONOUR
Bluey notes that the Coalition is continuing with its meme of rebadging old spending announcements.
INCUMBENT ADVANTAGE TURNBULL
Most of QT went to the long socks. As all QTs should.
WYMMYN
Bluey reckons that Turnbull gets wymmyn in a way that Abbot never did. Get ready for some wymmyn sop stuff in the Budget. It will be symbolic but hey, why should wymmyn leave it to men to fall for Turnbull’s sucker punches?
JOYCE DOES IDIOT
Joyce’s carp rant in QT is the worst Bluey has seen in Parliament. Bar none. The Liberal long socks were cringing. Windsor would have been chuckling.
PLIBERSEK DOES IDIOT
Bluey reckons that only an idiot on the Labor side would deliberately dredge up Rudd. Plibersek dredged up Rudd.
MORRISON DOES IDIOT
Chap can’t count to two.
ATO GUTTED, SPOOKS FATTENED
Bluey reckons that there is not much point in targeting tax cheats if there is no-one in the ATO to do the hard yards.
DISUNITY IS DEATH
Alexander and Jensen and five Labor people diss their own.
AGENDA
The Coalition has what it wants – tax as the number one agenda.
PUNISH VICTORIA
Bluey notes that Victoria gets $.8 billion and NSW gets $2.9 billion of the rebadged infrastructure spend.
POLLING
Morgan sitting on about just below evens.
Verdict for the Day: Coalition
Cumulative tally: Labor 26.5 Coalition 15.5 Greens 0
Thanks William. There was a time I’d have said yes to this, but on reflection don’t see this as enhancing comments, only adding to the chronological confusion. But I will email the Crikey mob with my input in any case.
C@Tmomma
So isn’t it the PBO costings of the Revenue raised by the increase in the Tobacco Excise that is wrong, not the Labor Party?
There is no right or wrong with forecasts or projections of revenue from increasing the tobacco tax. It depends on a range of assumptions which should, in turn be based on the best available data and ‘expert’ analysis. More importantly, the path taken by the Treasury forecast from the initial analysis up through the organisation and through the Minister’s office provides scope for the forecasts to be to be “refined” to say what the government wants it to say.
You did read the first part of my comment, right Airlines?
If you’re finding yourself shunted back to page one after leaving a comment, as I am, I have made the first comment in the post a link back to the current page (which I’ll update as necessary).
Four Corners tonight highlights that Malcolm Turnbull attacked negative gearing for rising house prices in the past. Excerpt shown on ABC News along with John Alexander and Jeff Kennett quote of Turnbull only changed on negative gearing to win an election.
WB,
It would be better if you decided how it should present based what you want and the feedback you have already recieved. On comment order, navigation and nested replies, the feedback I’ve seen seems to overwhelmingly be “how it was in the old version”.
Maybe it would, Question, but that’s not what the situation is. My comment of ten minutes ago is all about dealing with things as they actually are.
That would be why Turnbull was mocking Labor about the ciggie tax in QT today.
Oakes has done Labor a considerable favour, IMO.
I assume it is a matter for assumptions.
I did not have a lot of confidence in Labor’s figures for one simple reason: have a look around. What is happening is that there is already a large-scale shift from ciggies to nicotine patches. As ciggies go up, so will patch use.
I am fairly confident that in a very few years almost no-one at all in Australia will be smoking.
Why is it impossible to navigate to page 1 of the comments?
And where is the preview button?
Until the return of the gravatars there was one improvement. When going to a topic I was taken to the latest post and when posting it returned to the latest post. So in that respect a backwards step. Ce la vie
Why us Oh Lord?
William
Thank you for the first comment link to the Last Post. It works fine.
Cheers BW – although I will of course have to update it every time there’s a new page. When I go to sleep tomorrow morning, I might mitigate this by setting it at 100 rather than 50 comments per page.
[Offshore detention centers are out of control!!]
My department (Broader Farce Australia) that the centres are fully in control. There was a small incident today where a terrorist attack, the attention seeking terrorist you should hate instinctively, and frankly I’m disturbed it has become necessary to remind you of this.
The terrorist plot was to damage the camp with fire. The plot was averted simply by standing by and cheering as the terrorist burned … It was interrupted by a bleeding heart lefty terrorist sympathiser trying to put the fire out.
The persons trying to put out the fire and provide first aid have been dismissed for cause and put on the no flight list.
Tony Shepherd on 7.30 Report still reckons cutting company tax will drive economic growth, jobs and investment.
Dan
If you post something and submit it, the current gerbils take you straight to the top of page 1. There you will a post of Williams. If you tap on the blue text at the bottom of that first post it takes you to the last post which is more likely than note to be to be your last post.
William,
My bad. I’ll be sending off an email soon 🙂
Qanda
Tonight’s Panel
James Fallows – American writer and journalist
Laura Tingle – Political Editor, The Australian Financial Review
George Megalogenis – Author and Commentator
Iain Walker – Executive Director, The newDemocracy Foundation
Pru Goward – NSW Cabinet Minister
BW@ 1+min ago
Because we are the chosen cephalopods?
I moved to a rural area from the capital city in 2007. Back then the first thing I noticed was that almost everyone around me smoked. In the city I had to go out of my way to find a smoker.
Now however, a lot of those same smokers from my arrival here have quit or drastically cut down to the point I rarely see them smoking. It’s definitely a dying industry in developed countries, which is why Big Tobacco is targetting its efforts in developing countries.
In and of themselves worthy of a Qanda eyeball in my opinion! Forget everyone else.
WB, So we will never get comment numbers, or page navigation back? Chronilogical order and no nested comments… Like the old version. Basically when thinking how most people would prefer it “like the old version” would be a safe bet on the comment I have seen.
It would also be nice when making a comment to land back to where you where. It is tedious to spend a few minutes composing a comment which falls on a new page and then have to go back to the comments made while you were composing.
Albo was on Bolt report
Sky News Australia
38m38 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@AlboMP : We deserve credit for taking on issues such as capital gains tax and negative gearing #theboltreport
Sky News Australia
43m43 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@AlboMP won’t comment of shortfall on revenue gained from increased tobacco excise #theboltreport
Good to see Megalagenius back on tv – should be a reasonable Q+A
Well that was strange.
What do we want? Comment numbers!
When do we want it? By the time the (n+1)! comment above appears at the bottom of the first page!
Noted on Twitter last night:
Says it all that 7.30 report would have a paleo-conservative like Shepherd. Why not the Kouk, or Greg Jericho, etc etc.
[Tony Shepherd on 7.30 Report still reckons cutting company tax will drive economic growth, jobs and investment.]
You could tell where he was coming from when he kept using the ‘jobs and growth’ mantra much favoured by certain political dummies.
Ruawake
Hello. As a now fellow “Master Thief” how goes it ?
This has happened before. Psalm 130:
Out of the depths have I cried unto youse, O gerbils.
Gerbils, hear my voice: let thine ears be attentive to the voice of my supplications.
If thou, Gerbils, shouldest mark iniquities, O Gerbils, who shall stand?
But there is forgiveness with youse, that youse mayest be feared.
I wait for the Gerbils, my soul doth wait, and in their word do I hope.
My soul waiteth for the Gerbils more than they that watch for the morning: I say, more than they that watch for the morning.
Let Bludger hope in the Gerbils: for with the Gerbils there is mercy, and with them is plenteous redemption.
And the Gerbils shall redeem Bludger from all its iniquities.
If Labor’s figures are wrong on cigarette smoking on the revenue side so they will be on the expense side of health as less smoking caused cases will occur. So I don’t think the revenue problem is a huge one in that.
[AGENDA
The Coalition has what it wants – tax as the number one agenda.]
They are terrified of a tax and are going to say (mostly untrue) things about their commitment to stamping out corp tax cheating tomorrow.
Partner of Steve Price is COS to Greg Hunt. He may well be privvy to latest Newspoll
victoria,
Interesting take by Sky re Albo making no comment on the revenue issue.
He actually said he would wait for the detail as he did not trust the government ” one drop “.
Cheers.
7.30 maintains usual high standards with 20 minutes of tits & bums for the second week
What price a significant difference between PBO and Treasury calcs?
The Australian have reported on it, however, its reported as a ‘Labor faces claim of $20 billion black hole’ which can make you suspicious if its fact.
“Labor will have to find an extra $20 billion in funding after a leaked federal budget document showed a shortfall in the opposition’s expected revenue from taxing smokers.
In a document obtained by the Nine Network, Treasury forecasts the tobacco excise will raise $28.2bn over 10 years.
That’s $19.5bn less than Labor had predicted over the decade, leaving it short on funding for its spending promises – including fully funding the Gonski school model.
Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese dismissed the leak, saying it didn’t show what the government’s policy on the tobacco tax actually was.
Often what the government spins was different to reality, he said, and Labor would wait to see the detail.
“I’ve learnt not to trust government spin, let alone a drop,” he told Sky News.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/budget-2016-labor-faces-claim-of-20-billion-black-hole/news-story/de59d292bab141971a8a22e577da9c0b
A B, the thing about smoking is that even though it’s addictive, demand actually shows a certain amount of price-elasticity (much more than for chocolate, I recall reading once). So when the gummint jacks up the price, sales fall but by a smaller %age than the price has risen – so sales x excise still rises. So both national health and revenue benefit. All good, except for the poor desperates who keep smoking themselves to death at an even higher price.
Doyley
As mentioned
All ALP policies have been independently costed by @PBO_AU which liaises with @Treasury_AU on assumptions underpinning all relevant costings
Wow I have just seen Barnaby Joyce video from QT on facebook.
All I can ask is was he drunk?