Newspoll has turned in a headline-grabbing result, with Labor taking a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, reversing the result from a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down two), 36% for Labor (up two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is down one point on approval to 38% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has been sliced from 52-21 to 48-27. Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 32%, but also up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds only 19% in favour of allowing states to levy income taxes, with 58% opposed. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1743. Full tables behind a paywall at The Australian.
Also out today was the latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which reversed a sudden surge to Labor recorded a fortnight ago. The poll has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down two to 31% and the Greens down one to 13%. Where the last poll had Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, this one has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on the respondent-allocated measure, and 51.5-48.5 going off 2013 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 3174.
UPDATE: The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is once again at 50-50, although there’s movement on the primary vote to the extent of both major parties being down a point, with the Coalition on 42% and Labor on 37%, with the Greens up a point to 10%. Other findings: Chris Bowen is now rated more trusted than Scott Morrison to handle the economy by 23%, up four since January, with Morrison’s rating unchanged at 26%; a 34%-all tie on support and opposition for granting the states income tax powers, if “it would mean Federal income tax rates would be reduced”; 64% disapproval of tax-exempt status for religious organisations, with 24% in support; improvement in perceptions of the economy since January, with 32% describing its current state as good (up four) versus 27% for poor (down four); 32% saying the economy is heading in the right direction (up two since January), versus 37% for the wrong direction (down one). The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1038, with the voting intention results supplemented by the survey from the previous week.
Well, I just don’t think that slip sliding away cuts it any more. I think this one is more appropriate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A
question
Without doubt not just a narrative. Some policies that voters like. Like erm cracking down on multinational companies avoiding taxes.
Its not like they vote.
Let the fighting begin
[‘Biggest mistake’: NSW minister blasts Turnbull
With an election looming, a war of words erupts between the NSW and federal education ministers]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-worst-idea-ever-piccoli-blasts-pm-on-schools-20160404-gny3gw.html
My understanding is that Dutton will be a stalking horse for Andrews this time — the timing will be interesting, but it will have to be the week they bring the Senate back.
Dutton has been promised Treasury following the eventual Andrews challenge — but he won’t vote for Andrews himself, merely let his faction support Andrews.
Only thing that is certain in all this circus is that Julie “Cockroach” “loyal gal” Bishop is to remain Deputy and retain her Foreign Affairs portfolio.
If only Wolstonecraft was part of the Wentworth electorate, the Liberals could put in a quick call to Howard to step into the breach and replace Malcolm. 😉
jeremysear: “Without raising taxes”. What’s wrong with raising taxes? We’d have another $50bn/year if we just undid the Howard/Costello tax cuts. #qanda
Darren, 104
Dutton? DUTTON? Placed in Treasury?
I’d post a few screenlengths of laughter if it wasn’t a bannable offense.
Also, why does Dutton have his own faction? One would think he’s too incompetent for that.
Catmomma
Yes, a US style “Draft Unca Howie” campaign is underway, but I think the Andrews/Dutton challenge is more likely at this stage.
Airlines … I think Darren was doing comedy
Darren Laver
Are you jesting?
jenauthor, 109
Oops, my bad 😛
It was very funny though 🙂
KB
[Yes this is what PM ratings do for some reason. They tend to run slightly ahead of changes in the 2PP.]
The obvious question is whether the phenomenom is a correlation or causation, although the lag suggests causation.
Also, is it an accepted theory in psephology?
The electorate would fall about laughing if Kevin Andrews became PM and Dutton Treasurer. 😀
I don’t have a lot of time for Graham Richardson, sick though he undoubtedly is, but his most recent column was a pretty deadly indictment of what Mr Turnbull has been up to lately. There’s a “what the hell did he think he was doing” quality about the whole double taxation debacle which is hauntingly reminiscent of the knighting of the Royal Consort.
The real stupidity, though, the Big Bertha of clangers, is the notion they seem to have that cutting education and health funding is a fight with the States and Territories. It’s not; it’s a fight with the voters.
Diogs, 112
I’d argue it’s correlation, that losing faith in the government first starts off with the leader (being the figurehead and all) and then spreads to the party.
From Phil Coorey’s article today:
“Malcolm’s people think Scott doesn’t get the detail, Scott’s people think Malcolm doesn’t get politics.”
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-and-scott-morrison-told-to-sort-out-their-relationship-20160404-gnxr2k#ixzz44rgBqNZn
Cockroach I assume relates to her ability to survive any holocaust, nuclear or otherwise.
GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Allowing States to levy income taxes: Support 19 Oppose 58 #auspol
Cat momma
Forget about drafting Howard. If Dutton were Treasurer and Andrews PM, I think I would draft my cat and an orangutang from Taronga Zoo. They would each do a better job.
c@t
Hubris writ large. They just assume they are going to win election.
[“Malcolm’s people think Scott doesn’t get the detail, Scott’s people think Malcolm doesn’t get politics.”
One theory is that there is a mutual suspicion among the pair with rumours Turnbull wants to replace Morrison with Christian Porter after the election.
In such an environment, it is little wonder such laughable propositions as Kevin Andrews not ruling out challenging for the leadership gain traction.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-and-scott-morrison-told-to-sort-out-their-relationship-20160404-gnxr2k#ixzz44rhpSxSm
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[guytaur,
Without doubt not just a narrative. Some policies that voters like. Like erm cracking down on multinational companies avoiding taxes.
Its not like they vote.]
That’s the problem with “living within our means”. It doesn’t have much scope. It’s useful if you have nothing.
But it got Kennet excited. He thinks it’s something.
[
Cockroach I assume relates to her ability to survive any holocaust, nuclear or otherwise.
]
Well yes, but more specifically, she survives any and all leadership challenges since Nelson!
An unnamed Liberal MP dubbed her that after the Abbott win, I think.
The narrative is the electorate is preparing to change the Government. T had a chance to do this and has proven utterly incapable of it. Labor will be given the job of restoring rational, modern and optimistic government for this country.
I was among an audience tonight at a town hall style meeting in Wanneroo. For two hours Bill Shorten, supported by the Labor candidate for Cowan, Anne Ali, spoke persuasively, fluently and thoughtfully about Labor’s policies and values.
He was completely relaxed and focused. At the end he was given a standing ovation by the crowd. Labor can and almost certainly will win the coming election.
[Malcolm’s people]
Who are these people? What are their names?
*with apologies to Thatcher
What a pity Bob Ellis didn’t get to see this Newspoll.
I do not think Malcolm has any people left. They are all down at police headquarters.
This on PM Live Sky show
[Bridget O’Flynn
26m26 minutes ago
Bridget O’Flynn @BridgetOFlynn
Ross Cameron: I believe Malcolm Turnbull has deliberately injured his Treasurer.
#pmlive]
[121
Question
That’s the problem with “living within our means”. It doesn’t have much scope. It’s useful if you have nothing.]
But it’s actually worse than nothing. How can Turnbull say, with a straight face, that we have to “live within our means” when there is rampant corporate tax evasion and corruption going on?
catmomma
Its a pity Ellis was not able to share his opinion on the State Income Tax Power proposal. I am sure it would have been very memorable.
daretotread,
You could replace Kevin Andrews with a bottle of Grecian 2000 and Peter Dutton with a potato and people wouldn’t notice the difference! I think they’d do a better job as well. 😀
Labor can really play on that “live within your means” slogan. They can counter with “Ordinary Australians already know how to live within their means” contrasting it with the wealth of the Panama percentage of our society.
Hardly anyone wants to see money taken out of schools and hospitals or pay more income tax so even if Turnbull did mean it as an F. U. to the states (which is doubtful) it just looks like the petty actions of a government completely incapable of doing the serious policy thing
C@tmomma@125
He would have anticipated it. 😛
guytaur,
Yes, Bob Ellis had a hearty laugh and I think you would have been able to hear it all around Australia after COAG last week, if he still had the strength.
“living within our means” is Dickensian in its gloominess. What it actually translates to is institutionalized inequality and hardship, pessimism and defeat.
Ah, now that’s a nice little result that Newspoll has gifted us. I imagine there will be some Liberal backbenchers wetting their beds tonight.
Turnbull’s netsats are a sight to behold. He’s gone from a truly ludicrous blowout on net approval to only being 10 points ahead of Shorten, and his preferred PM lead isn’t looking particularly flash either. At this rate, his net approval will probably be lower than Shorten’s by the next Newspoll, and its not out of the realm of possibility that he could start polling PPM deficits before the election as well.
Perhaps Turnbull had a plan after all?
“Injure” Morrison so he can make way for Dutton in Treasury to head off the Andrews/Dutton challenge!
You know it makes sense. It is the CPG’s “Mal’s Grand Plan”!
C@tmomma @113:
[The electorate would fall about laughing if Kevin Andrews became PM and Dutton Treasurer.]
God, I hope the Liberal party makes this happen. I mean, it would be utterly horrifying in the short term, but it would be worth it for the whopping ALP majority that such a stellar team would almost certainly deliver.
I can’t help wondering what the public service was up to in the all double taxation imbroglio. When Dr Parkinson took over at PM&C, and when all sorts of good signals were sent early about working with the public service, due Cabinet process and all that, things seemed a bit encouraging on that front.
But maybe Laura Tingle is right about the loss of policy making ability in the public service, and that this is just the latest sign of that bigger problem.
bemused,
Bob Ellis would have said that the Newspoll was still too low for Labor. 😉
Diogenes@112
Possum wrote a rather well known article about it (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2012/09/29/the-primary-dynamic/) and I’ve verified it independently. But I am not aware of any analysis of whether it is also a thing overseas.
It is not at all clear whether or how it is causative or whether PM netsat just responds faster to an underlying factor than voter intention (eg something causes voters to doubt both the leader and the party, but they disapprove of the leader first.)
Asha Leu,
As a lapsed catholic, I might even start praying again for the Andrews/Dutton team for just that reason. 😉
From memory, Kevin Andrews was the first stalking horse for Abbott in 2009. He would love a reprise. Let’s hope they attempt it. Any disturbance to the leadership will see the Liberal PV fall by 50%.
C@tmomma@139
You’re right. Thanks for the correction. 😀
Goodnight 🙂
Night all. Sweet dreams are made of these Newspolls. Enjoy them while you can, the ‘Black Ops, Yay!’ team in the Liberal Party will be preparing to get very down and dirty in the run-up to the federal election, you can count on it.
Talk of the PM undermining the Treasurer brings back memories of Gough Whitlam similarly undermining Frank Crean when he’d made up his mind that he wanted Jim Cairns (in the pre-Morosi days) in the job. And some of us remember how well that turned out.
Well, well, what a turn up. Latika on Facebook:
[Latika M Bourke
32 mins ·
“We need a narrative badly” one Government MP told me upon hearing the news.]
https://www.facebook.com/LatikaMbourkeJournalist/posts/999529240084896
A narrative? That’s what they think they need?
Recalling Parliament early: beautiful one day, blunder the next.
Airlines @107:
[Dutton? DUTTON? Placed in Treasury?]
To be fair, I doubt he could be much worse than Morrison.