Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest Newspoll result finds Labor bursting into the lead, with no respite for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, despite the good press from last fortnight’s double dissolution ultimatum.

Newspoll has turned in a headline-grabbing result, with Labor taking a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, reversing the result from a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down two), 36% for Labor (up two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is down one point on approval to 38% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has been sliced from 52-21 to 48-27. Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 32%, but also up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds only 19% in favour of allowing states to levy income taxes, with 58% opposed. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1743. Full tables behind a paywall at The Australian.

Also out today was the latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which reversed a sudden surge to Labor recorded a fortnight ago. The poll has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down two to 31% and the Greens down one to 13%. Where the last poll had Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, this one has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on the respondent-allocated measure, and 51.5-48.5 going off 2013 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 3174.

UPDATE: The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is once again at 50-50, although there’s movement on the primary vote to the extent of both major parties being down a point, with the Coalition on 42% and Labor on 37%, with the Greens up a point to 10%. Other findings: Chris Bowen is now rated more trusted than Scott Morrison to handle the economy by 23%, up four since January, with Morrison’s rating unchanged at 26%; a 34%-all tie on support and opposition for granting the states income tax powers, if “it would mean Federal income tax rates would be reduced”; 64% disapproval of tax-exempt status for religious organisations, with 24% in support; improvement in perceptions of the economy since January, with 32% describing its current state as good (up four) versus 27% for poor (down four); 32% saying the economy is heading in the right direction (up two since January), versus 37% for the wrong direction (down one). The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1038, with the voting intention results supplemented by the survey from the previous week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,608 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Apologies firstly for posting a big slab of text and secondly for it’s source (Bolt) but I’m sure every Labor PB will overdose on schadenfreude reading it.

    Victims of the Abbott curse.

    The biggest victim could be the whole party in the election.

    [ Malcolm Turnbull himself has come under severe criticism and pressure, with his personal approval

    Dennis Jensen yesterday lost his preselection, and without any irony at all protested at being betrayed.

    Mal Brough has had to first resign his ministry and then from Parliament as police confirmed they were interviewing him over claims that he tried to procure personal information from a public servant about former Speaker Peter Slipper.

    Arthur Sinodinos faces renewed criticisms and allegations over what he knew about secret and unlawful donations to the Liberals.

    Teresa Gambaro is quitting Parliament.after being denied promotion.

    Ian Macfarlane is quitting Parliament after being denied the ministry position he expected from Turnbull and then being blocked from moving to the nationals.

    Phillip Ruddock is quitting Parliament after coming under severe presure in his preselection.

    Concetta Fierravanti-Wells was humiliatingly denied the top spot on the Liberals NSW Senate ticket after anger at her betrayal of Abbott.

    Scott Morrison, whose supporters switched to Turnbull, has been marginalised and belittled as Treasurer by the Prime Minister he helped to install (without actually voting for him himself).

    Bronwyn Bishop, who so outrageously betrayed Abbott, is now in danger of losing the preselection she long assumed was sewn up.

    Julie Bishop, who plotted with Turnbull and betrayed her leader, has suffered big reputational damage within the party and is now written off as a future leader. In fact, she will be unlikely to serve out another full term.

    Stuart Robert has had to resign his ministry after confusing personal interests with his job and faces investigation by police..

    Sharman Stone is quitting Parliament.

    Michael Ronaldson has quit politics after being dumped as Minister. (Ronaldson was not among the 54, but only because he arrived too late to back Turnbull.)

    Luke Simpkins has come under fire over his expenses. ]

  2. [Still, one poll does not a trend make.]

    No, but the trend started after the holidays. I can’t remember a fortnight the L-NP have done well this year.

  3. How long for the leadership challenge?

    Seriously the trend we saw keeps right on going as more voters become aware of the government dysfunction.

    When you have the likes of Greg Sheridan saying that last week was a mess and there is no denying it the LNP are in big trouble.
    It means voters are paying attention.

    This will be helped to some extent by Turnbull snubbing 2GB.
    Mr Shorten should do an interview there to drive home the point. He will not lose any votes for doing so as the questions won’t be much different from what he gets at pressers anyway.

  4. I’m no chartist, but that Labor primary plot is an outrageously bullish inverted head-and-sholders. Just saying.

  5. Question

    If you look at William’s sidebar, the Turnbull netsat trend started in November and the 2PP has followed behind.

    Turnbull has shed almost 40% in netsat since Nov.

  6. Doyley@3268

    J341983 @3259,

    Exactly. Unless he gets the ABCC legislation through he is locked in to the DD.

    Gordon Brown threatened a DD in the UK. A few bad polls and he backed away. He never recovered.

    Weakness is easy to smell.


    I’m not sure what you mean by a DD. Brown was able to call an election at any time AFAIK until the reforms that was done during the Con-LibDem coalition government that set fixed dates.

    The House of Lords of course doesn’t have elections in the usual sense.

  7. I blame ESJ for putting the mocha on turnbull late last year when he said wtte –

    [December is terminal Shorten]


  8. The LNP is now on the nose on so many fronts, is hopelessly divided ant its political strategy and tactics in pieces. I see no upside in sight.

    Once a Government gets into this kind of death spiral in an election year it’s hard to see it recovering.

  9. One thing I’m almost certain is that “live within our means” will probably last until the election… unless they find that being uninspired will get them as far as Abbott.

  10. J341983 @ 11

    No. I would expect to see the CPG double down and as usual bury their heads in the sand.
    The crush many of them have displayed for Turnbull has been so strong that it will be hard for them to move on and admit that once again they have been completely duped by a liberal leader.

  11. Shorten closing in on the netsats, too. Good to see. Turnbull’s at least as mediocre as he is 😛

  12. J341983

    The CPG obviously had the heads up on Newspoll today. The likes of MKenny, KMurphy, PCoorey all had changed their tune somewhat in their reports this afternoon. Even Ulhmann was saying wtte that the coalition could lose election.

  13. Doyley

    In the previous thread you claimed that Gordon Brown threatened a DD election in the UK.

    A DD election is where both houses of parliament are dissolved.

    Can you explain how a DD election would work in the UK when one house (Lords) is appointed and not elected?

  14. vic

    It’s pretty amazing that for a government to lose at least ten members for the next election and those were the supposed winners of the ballot.

  15. Raaraa, 18

    They’re probably doing what William does, assuming that all incumbent non-major party MHRs will remain. We all know Palmer is gone, though.

  16. Well I suspect Turnbull will go to an election immediately. What has he got to lose.

    He cannot last until the budget. He may as well go down fighting.

    [Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie has unveiled three military veterans as NSW candidates for her party’s Senate push, bringing the Jacqui Lambie Network’s field to eight.

    She has already unveiled several candidates for the JLN’s Senate push in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania, including former RAAF officer Hugh Dolan, adventure tourism operator and former army man Bob Davis, designer Matt Timson, Devonport Mayor Steve Martin and Rural Health Tasmania chief executive Robert Waterman.

    On Monday, Lambie announced two former army veterans and a navy veteran as her party’s candidates for NSW — all with ties to the Australian Peacekeeper & Peacemaker Veterans’ Association.]

  18. Kennet is excited, I think he thinks we have to “live within our means”… maybe???

    He was probably just as excited after the 2014 budget.

  19. ALP still paying $4.50

    You would have to be nuts not to back them is you were a gambler, or lived in SA as we aren’t allowed to bet on politics.

  20. I can’t be the only one who has noticed the absence of the ‘Kill Bill’ squad lately.
    They use to make their presence felt within minutes of a poll being published.
    I for one look forward to their spine implant and welcome return to the conversation.

  21. I must say though, apropos qanda which I was listening to on the car radio as I drove back from SES training tonight, that I heard Christopher Pyne essentially saying that to the government the concept of Vertical Fiscal Equalisation between the States was no longer Coalition government policy.

    Which is the upshot of the ‘Don’t bring your begging bowl to us, find the money yourselves!’ position.

    Also, I find it interesting that no one yet has called out the Coalition’s ‘Grow the pie’ rhetoric for what it really is and that is Magic Pudding Economics. You add the magic ingredients that only the Coalition can and voila! The pie/pudding gets magically bigger and able to feed all of us better than before.

    I heard it applied by Pyne tonight to the Education funding question. Apparently you can just train teachers better, have larger class sizes and no extra resources for the schools…in fact, take them away from Public Schools, and voila! you end up with a superior education for your child, disabled and able alike.

    Someone should whisper into Chris’s shell-like that the Coalition’s magic tricks have been worked out and they’re just not fooling the punters any more.

    Exhibit 1 : Newspoll

  22. Re the Subs and SA:

    I read in The Daily Telegraph today (apparently your local tyre joint gets a free copy from Rupert every day too and that was the only reason I was reading it!), that Malcolm Turnbull has decided to put off the decision about who will be granted the contract to build the Subs, and hence where they will likely be built, until after the election.

    What a gutless wonder that man is. He doesn’t possess the courage to argue the case for whatever country the government chooses to build the Subs BEFORE the election.

  23. Raaraa @15,

    Sorry, my mistake.

    I should have stated early election not DD.

    In 2007 the English press was awash with conjecture of a early election. Brown made no attempt at the time to hose down the speculation and he just let it flow. After a while perception was the reality and Brown was stuck with the early election meme.

    After a couple of not so good polls and some internal polling of marginals Brown went public with no early election.

    It was all too late.

    He never recovered and was seen after that as weak. Weakness is terminal and the voters smell it. Perception becomes reality and good night nurse.

    Turnbull has done the same and locked himself in to a early election albeit by a slightly different path.

    He will face the same fate if no ABCC and no DD.

    We shall see.


  24. dave @ 41,

    Should put some more power into Abbott’s pedaling as well.

    Yes, but the electorate has sent Tony a very clear message:

    ‘On yer bike!’ 😀

  25. vanOnselenP: Malcolm Turnbull has now dropped to the best Tony Abbott did in the polls for a full 18 months as PM. That’s a huge problem for him!

  26. For the avoidance of smug hubris i’d suggest that there will be polls to come before the election (that are not Morgan) that will show the Libs bouncing back a little. Its the nature of things. 🙂

    But on the results as they stand the contest that a lot of us thought would be such a hard ask after Turnbull took over is well and truly on and eminently winnable.

    Unless Turnbull REALLY pulls a popular rabbit out of the hat with the Budget i think they are screwed.

    Turnbull and the Budgie Smugglers have fwarked up big time and repeatedly, while Shorten and the ALP have rarely put a foot wrong, been able to herd the Libs in the direction they want (look at the release of their negative gearing / cgt policy), and been ready to exploit Lib stuff ups without going overboard ….yet…as the real campaign hasn’t started.

    I have no idea what the Libs can do to pull out of the mess they are in, but all the signs seem to be that the mess will get worse over the 18/4 – 11/5 period.

    If they dont get their ABCC bill through and DONT go to a July 2 DD then i reckon Turnbull may actually get knifed and replaced.

  27. Dio,
    “ALP still paying $4.50

    You would have to be nuts not to back them is you were a gambler, or lived in SA as we aren’t allowed to bet on politics.”

    The internet would make a mockery of a rule like that, wouldn’t it?

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