Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest Newspoll result finds Labor bursting into the lead, with no respite for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, despite the good press from last fortnight’s double dissolution ultimatum.

Newspoll has turned in a headline-grabbing result, with Labor taking a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, reversing the result from a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down two), 36% for Labor (up two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is down one point on approval to 38% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has been sliced from 52-21 to 48-27. Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 32%, but also up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds only 19% in favour of allowing states to levy income taxes, with 58% opposed. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1743. Full tables behind a paywall at The Australian.

Also out today was the latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which reversed a sudden surge to Labor recorded a fortnight ago. The poll has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down two to 31% and the Greens down one to 13%. Where the last poll had Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, this one has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on the respondent-allocated measure, and 51.5-48.5 going off 2013 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 3174.

UPDATE: The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is once again at 50-50, although there’s movement on the primary vote to the extent of both major parties being down a point, with the Coalition on 42% and Labor on 37%, with the Greens up a point to 10%. Other findings: Chris Bowen is now rated more trusted than Scott Morrison to handle the economy by 23%, up four since January, with Morrison’s rating unchanged at 26%; a 34%-all tie on support and opposition for granting the states income tax powers, if “it would mean Federal income tax rates would be reduced”; 64% disapproval of tax-exempt status for religious organisations, with 24% in support; improvement in perceptions of the economy since January, with 32% describing its current state as good (up four) versus 27% for poor (down four); 32% saying the economy is heading in the right direction (up two since January), versus 37% for the wrong direction (down one). The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1038, with the voting intention results supplemented by the survey from the previous week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,608 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [ A Parliamentary Budget Office report also takes into account Turnbull government plans to deregulate university course fees, which it says will be the main driver of the growing loan portfolio. ]

    So, the Libs get something costed, and it turns out that its their policy proposal that’s driving up the cost, that means they have to introduce another policy to reduce the cost??

    No, they are just going to write it off and use the apparent loss to justify the original policy thats driving the cost…….

    What does it take to separate this lot from sh$t policy??

  2. imacca
    [What does it take to separate this lot from sh$t policy??]
    I would say “an education” except it didn’t seem to work the first time around.

  3. the libs need to be dumped — replanted — too much bad blood for too long —- australia doesn’t deserve or need them — more gaffs malcolm

  4. GG

    [Despite his criminality, Nixon is rated as a much better President than average. ]

    Rated by who?

    From my recollection Hunter S Thompson is closer to the mark:

    [Richard Nixon has never been one of my favorite people, anyway. For years I have regarded his very existence as a monument to all the rancid genes and broken chromosomes that corrupt the possibility of the American dream.; he was a foul caricature of himself, a man with no soul, no inner convictions, with the integrity of a hyena and thevstyle of a poisonous toad. The Nixon I remember was absolutely humourless; I couldn’t imagine him laughing at anything except maybe a paraplegic who wanted to vote Democratic but couldn’t quite reach the lever on the voting machine.]

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