Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest Newspoll result finds Labor bursting into the lead, with no respite for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, despite the good press from last fortnight’s double dissolution ultimatum.

Newspoll has turned in a headline-grabbing result, with Labor taking a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, reversing the result from a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down two), 36% for Labor (up two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is down one point on approval to 38% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has been sliced from 52-21 to 48-27. Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 32%, but also up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds only 19% in favour of allowing states to levy income taxes, with 58% opposed. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1743. Full tables behind a paywall at The Australian.

Also out today was the latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which reversed a sudden surge to Labor recorded a fortnight ago. The poll has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down two to 31% and the Greens down one to 13%. Where the last poll had Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, this one has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on the respondent-allocated measure, and 51.5-48.5 going off 2013 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 3174.

UPDATE: The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is once again at 50-50, although there’s movement on the primary vote to the extent of both major parties being down a point, with the Coalition on 42% and Labor on 37%, with the Greens up a point to 10%. Other findings: Chris Bowen is now rated more trusted than Scott Morrison to handle the economy by 23%, up four since January, with Morrison’s rating unchanged at 26%; a 34%-all tie on support and opposition for granting the states income tax powers, if “it would mean Federal income tax rates would be reduced”; 64% disapproval of tax-exempt status for religious organisations, with 24% in support; improvement in perceptions of the economy since January, with 32% describing its current state as good (up four) versus 27% for poor (down four); 32% saying the economy is heading in the right direction (up two since January), versus 37% for the wrong direction (down one). The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1038, with the voting intention results supplemented by the survey from the previous week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,608 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Cat

    In terms of Foreign Policy, Hilary is a warmonger. That is probably the main reason I am in the Sanders camp. I do not want WWIII.

    Any one who follows politics and still calls Putin a “tin pot dictator” should do a bit more reading.

    Putin is certainly an authoritarian personality, but he is lawfully elected and highly popular.

    He has nukes so by definition he is not “tin pot”

    He has showed skill in Syria and Crimea – mixture of dash, bravado and pull back when required. OK it is not to our advantage, but he is after all Russian and presumably acts for the benefit of Russia.

    He took the reins after Yeltsin for heaven’s sake. Tony Abbott would look good after that drunk.

    Although the price of oil is low and is hurting, Russia sits on top of massive gas fields.

    So whoever rules the USA needs to have the diplomatic skill and savvy to handle Putin without accidently starting WWIII. Kerry I must say has been doing very well.

    China is another powder keg that needs careful management.

    And yes by and large I am an appeaser. I do not despise Neville Chamberlain, because frankly Britain may well have LOST the war and we would all be saying achtung!

  2. Greensborough Growler – I engaged with you civilly, and all you can do is insult.

    I agree that Nixon had some good policy achievements, particularly around the environment, but he was also responsible for the Southern Strategy, which employed racism to flip the southern states.

    He was also President when America had a culture of bipartisan politics in Washington. Both parties cooperated to negotiate and compromise in order to implement policy. Those days are long gone.

    And so again I ask so what? How is experience and insider knowledge going to motivate radical Republicans to cooperate with Clinton?

    The answer is they won’t, no more than they cooperated with Obama.


    [Not since Monica Lewinsky has a blue dress captivated the attention of so many political pundits. However, occasional Liberal worker Tamara Candy is unapologetic of her style some call “dangerous”.
    The 27-year-old PhD student made headlines when she was photographed wearing a plunging blue sequin cocktail dress alongside former Queensland premier Campbell Newman and former Queensland MP Neil Symes last year.]

  4. GG and Jimmy

    I suspect that Kasich’s chances took a bit of a beating today. In a Northern state like Wisconsin I would have expected him to get a better vote. I somehow think he may have run out of puff.

  5. Jeebus Tony Jones can be a poor journalist at times.

    Spends all his time looking at his next question so barely listens to any answers. He got his answer several times just now and acted like it wasn’t answered.

    Really poor work.

  6. JD,

    Hillary is not Obama. You spend far too much time seeing the future as it is now.

    There are so many ways for her to clear the logjam.

    I believe she will be one of the great Presidents.

  7. [Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields 10h10 hours ago
    EXCLUSIVE: Peter Dutton confirms two children are still in detention despite saying on Sunday all had been released … ]

    This govt has more than its fair share of duds in the ministry, but Dutton tops them all. First. Class. Clown.

  8. [This govt has more than its fair share of duds in the ministry, but Dutton tops them all. First. Class. Clown.]

    You are too kind.

  9. [1557
    Greensborough Growler
    There are so many ways for her to clear the logjam.

    No there aren’t.

    The only way to clear the logjam is for the Democrats to win the House and the Senate. The Senate could flip, but the House likely will not, as it has been rigged by the Republicans.

  10. jen

    I thought it was contradictory of him to demand funding details and then dismiss the information provided because it was talking about ten years out and the PBO can’t know what’s going to happen then.

    Ellis should have said wtte of “What do you want? A note from God?”

  11. daretotread,
    Of course Putin isn’t a Tin Pot Dictator! You take things too literally sometimes. It’s why I put a 😉 next to it.

    No, Putin is your typical Russian Authoritarian crook who eliminates his enemies rather than deal with them in parliament.

    I wouldn’t exactly praise his work in the Crimea or Syria.

    Crimea was a grab for a temperate sea port. In Syria he entered the Civil War under false pretences, and instead of attacking ISIS he turned his warplanes onto the opposition to Bashar Assad.

    If that sort of behaviour gets your tick of approval then you can hardly berate Hillary Clinton.

  12. JD,

    Yeah and the US has never faced that sort of gridlock before.

    It comes down to effective use of power, negotiation skill and a universal desire to move on.

    But you hold on to your cynicism.

  13. GG

    I am not sure he has enough delegates to be kingmaker.

    I thought that given he seems sane and reasonable, he would be seen as an acceptable alternative to Trump, given that Cruz is hated by so many etc. However to be in the race I would have thought he would need to start getting votes of 25% or so. He is a long way off.

  14. Anyway, I can’t keep my eyes open any longer, let alone think of sassy things to say! 😀

    So, ‘It’s goodnight from me!’

  15. victoria:

    If you are still around I’m sure you’d be interested in this:

    [Tim Lyons ‏@Picketer 5h5 hours ago
    You couldn’t make this up: #turc sends confidential info it had to look into info leaks to the wrong people. … ]

    Why should we be surprised that the most incompetent govt in my lifetime has appointed an incompetent royal commission!

  16. GG #1550
    [Cruz won big today, stopping Drumpf’s momentum.

    If there is no clear winner by the Convention, then anything can happen.]

    Perhaps I should clarify; when I said that Kasich and Cruz don’t have a realistic path to the Nomination, what I mean is they don’t have the number of delegates necessary to clinch the nomination on the First Ballot.

    Cruz did win big, but because it took so long for the field to consolidate the Anti-Trump vote around one or two candidate/s, it means that Kasich and Cruz are too far behind in the delegate count, and thus they won’t be able to reach the amount of delegates required to become the Nominee.

    And even then, there’s still a chance for Trump to win on the first ballot. It mainly revolves a quirk in RNC delegate rules: states that award delegates by congressional district give an equal amount of delegates regardless of how many Republicans are in them. So, if enough Trump voters vote in Very Democratic Congressional Districts (usually majority-minority districts), he’ll be able to rack up lots of delegates without actually winning that many votes – think districts in New York, California, Pennsylvania etc.

    But if Trump doesn’t win enough delegates to win on the First Ballot, then, yeah – anything can happen. (maybe the Republicans could draft in Arnie? :D)

  17. dtt,

    Kasich could end up the candidate.

    The delegates are only committed on the first ballot. If that doesn’t produce a winner then they are released and can vote anyway.

    All he has to be is last man standing.

  18. JD

    Well, on that logic, it doesn’t matter which Democrat wins, they’re pretty much screwed.

    In which case, Hillary has a better chance of achieving something than Sanders.

  19. Why did LateLine have the Labor education shadow on and then ask a bunch of questions about tax policy?

    Why did she, when asked about Turnbull’s claim of increased spending not come briefed and simply explain that the current government is spending more in order to meet agreements with the states that Labor negotiated?

  20. GG – You’re being extraordinarily naive.

    For a start, no party has ever before stonewalled the President’s constitutional responsibility to put forward a Supreme Court nominee. That was an absolute shattering of previous political convention in the United States.

    The Republican party has rigged congressional districts in its favour, stacked the Supreme Court, made it harder to vote by requiring ID and cutting polling booth numbers and hours, employed poll watchers to intimidate voters, and not once but twice brought the United States, to the brink of default – the first time because Republicans kept upping the spending cuts required when Obama agreed to their previous amount, and the second because Democrats refused to defund Planned Parenthood.

    But sure, Clinton will overcome this “just because”.

  21. [1573
    Well, on that logic, it doesn’t matter which Democrat wins, they’re pretty much screwed.

    Oh I definitely agree with that.

  22. Cat

    I look at EVERY country and assume they will be acting for their OWN interests.

    As a RUSSIAN president Crimea was a stroke of genius. Crimea is an critical port to Russia – sort of like Sydney to Australia or Portsmouth to the UK. No sane Russian president would let it go without a fight. Would the USA give up Florida?

    There was a well orchestrated US/NATO plan to destabilise Ukraine, presumably to actually grab hold of Crimea amongst other things. Russia was well aware of this as those leaked tapes revealed.

    Russia grabbing Crimea so quickly was a very well thought out military move that was way, way ahead of the US and NATO in strategic thinking.

    Now given the population is Russian speaking, has had a long emotional attachement to Russia, was the location of major patriotic battles in WWII, had been handed to Ukraine as an administrative order by Kruschev, himself a Ukrainian, not Russian, had been neglected economically by Kiev and that pensions and benefits paid by Russia far exceeded those of Ukraine, Putin could be fairly confident that once he had seized Crimea, there would be no clamouring by Crimeans for a reurn to Ukraine.

    Where Putin was clever, was in the swift way he acted, before NATO or the USA could act.

    His actions in Syria showed similar STRATEGIC sense.

    Putin is probably the cleverest leader in the world today. He also must be acting with tremendously strong public support and also support from his military. I say this because of the relative lack of leaking or ionformation getting out. This ONLY happens when a country is unified eg UK after the blitz.

  23. JD,

    I suggest you save your 1580 to review over the years.

    You’ll kick your own arse for how cynical and callow you are.

    I’m a member of Labor because I think we can make a difference. If I didn’t believe that, then what’s the fucking point. Any smartarse can tell you “It’s not possible”.

    Reflect on that, comrade.

  24. 1542

    Of course I realise this. A similar set of rules applies in WA. I have been at pains to point out that while land tax is levied on titleholders, it in fact falls on tenants. I know this because I am a tenant. The income derived from tenancy is the source of the revenue used to satisfy the tax obligation.

    Land tax is in fact a tax on income….the income of tenants.

  25. GG

    I actually agreed with you about Kasich until today. However it was a pretty poor show, so I am starting to conclude he has no chance.

  26. GG @ 1572

    [Kasich could end up the candidate.]

    Anyone could be the nominee. It is not restricted to those still in the contest at Convention time. It’s unlikely to be Kasich because he simply is not close enough to the centre of the party.

  27. GG – I’ve already said that Clinton may surprise by overcoming those obstacles, and I’ll happily revise my opinion if she does. And I even agree with zoomster’s point that Clinton is more likely to do it than Sanders.

    I’m also a member of Labor, and also believe Labor makes a difference. I think a large part of the reason that it does is that Australia has a fundamentally different political system to the US. I believe ours is much more robust and better able to cope with partisan politics. We also have compulsory voting.

    America’s political system was designed to work without political parties in a system centred on compromise and negotiation. You could not have designed a better system to perpetuate obstruction by one party if you had intended to from the start.

  28. dtt,

    Wisconsin is a long way from Ohio.

    As has been said by me and a few others tonight, if Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot then no one knows who will be the Republican nominee for president.

    Maybe all Kasich has to do is hang in there.

  29. brifly

    Every single sort of tax is on income (except death duties).

    It is simply a choice between which type of income you tax.

    We have of course long had land taxes – rates being the obvious one. I used to be heavily against GST but because of tax avoidance scams it seems a better option. land tax is even better because it cannot move off shore.

    Gina and Rupert need to live in their $20 mill palaces. Moneyed people from Hong Kong and Saudi buy up waterfront apartments and commercial properties. Google and Microsoft executives live in Vaucluse. I would much rather they pay land tax which they cannot off shore to Ireland.

  30. Hmmm

    [20 years from Australian company Thiess
    Leighton: an entrenched culture of corruption?
    Top Australian businesswoman and ABC board member Dr Kirstin Ferguson failed to protect a whistleblower who personally alerted her to a corruption scandal inside the nation’s biggest mining services company.

    Instead, the whistleblower was forced out of Thiess in 2014 and a confidential internal corruption inquiry report, that included bribery claims involving Thiess and a top Indian politician, remained buried.]

  31. Kate Ellis did good tonight. Tony J kept trying gotchas on how the plan will be funded beyond the 4 year forward estimates. Bit like asking to Jo Public to guarantee their mortgage payments four years hence.

    This living within ur means line is weak.comparing a trillion dollar economy to a household budget.My credit card is currently in deficit. In fact it has been every month for the last 30 years. Am I living beyond my means?

  32. Hillary Clinton is definitely the most Nixonian candidate in the race. Reflexive attachment to bombing people in the name of demonstrating “credibility”? Check. Cavalier disregard for honesty and proper process? Check. Overweening pride coupled with deepseated insecurity? Check.

  33. [ Steely – my villians are bigger and badder than yours. They have access to much bigger buckets of money. ]

    But can you pleasure them to the same extent??

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