Newspoll has turned in a headline-grabbing result, with Labor taking a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, reversing the result from a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down two), 36% for Labor (up two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is down one point on approval to 38% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has been sliced from 52-21 to 48-27. Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 32%, but also up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds only 19% in favour of allowing states to levy income taxes, with 58% opposed. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1743. Full tables behind a paywall at The Australian.
Also out today was the latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which reversed a sudden surge to Labor recorded a fortnight ago. The poll has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down two to 31% and the Greens down one to 13%. Where the last poll had Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, this one has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on the respondent-allocated measure, and 51.5-48.5 going off 2013 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 3174.
UPDATE: The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is once again at 50-50, although there’s movement on the primary vote to the extent of both major parties being down a point, with the Coalition on 42% and Labor on 37%, with the Greens up a point to 10%. Other findings: Chris Bowen is now rated more trusted than Scott Morrison to handle the economy by 23%, up four since January, with Morrison’s rating unchanged at 26%; a 34%-all tie on support and opposition for granting the states income tax powers, if “it would mean Federal income tax rates would be reduced”; 64% disapproval of tax-exempt status for religious organisations, with 24% in support; improvement in perceptions of the economy since January, with 32% describing its current state as good (up four) versus 27% for poor (down four); 32% saying the economy is heading in the right direction (up two since January), versus 37% for the wrong direction (down one). The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1038, with the voting intention results supplemented by the survey from the previous week.
This is a refreshing change to the Chris Pyne hour on 2
Cat 🙂
[48
imacca
If they dont get their ABCC bill through and DONT go to a July 2 DD then i reckon Turnbull may actually get knifed and replaced.]
Would you say that’s Mal’s first TEST? 😀
bemused
Here is another tragic failure of our mental health system.
[POLICE took a man who stands accused of murdering his mother to hospital for mental health treatment only hours before he allegedly stabbed her to death at Kensington Park.
The 43-year-old, who a court has heard suffers from schizophrenia, was taken by police to the Royal Adelaide Hospital following a disturbance at a Marryatville hotel about 2pm last Wednesday, The Advertiser can reveal.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/alleged-kensington-park-killer-released-from-royal-adelaide-hospital-just-hours-before-mother-stabbing/news-story/7df8fe6937502a931e681c9c01c5dfbe
For Croweater PBers, SA Health is an absolute disgrace.
guytaur, 47
To be fair to Abbott, he had an early peak at 52-48 Coalition or something, didn’t he?
Doyley
I think Turnbull can still back away from a DD should the ABCC bill still fail to pass. Though at this stage, it might be equally bad to proceed or back away, I think.
MarkDiStef: I’m sure several Labor people will be bringing up this quote tomorrow… from Turnbull’s #libspill pitch speech: https://t.co/51Y0XBQO8p
Airlines@43,
I doubt that Clive will still be around after the election.
Turnbull’s drop in net satisfaction in blows out to 48% in 4 months, just 1% short of Keating’s all-time 1993 record
[ He cannot last until the budget. He may as well go down fighting. ]
dtt….if he goes to an election before delivering a budget he has nothing to even attempt to fight with or even give the appearance of such.
Sohar, 58
He probably won’t, but I think they’ve done a blanket assumption that all non-major party incumbents will be returned, like William does.
Imacca
Given the current papers I doubt Turnbull can even make it until April 18.
It has a real sense of the hunt about it now. The monkey pods are going for the kill.
I have now pressed the button 10 times. Enough!!!!!!
Sohar@58
I can’t remember if it was here or on one of the news sites that I read something of Palmer going for a Senate seat. Don’t know if it was a rumour or just me dreaming it.
Airlines
Yeah I would have to go back to check but I think from memory now you mention it you are right.
Not that it makes much difference for Turnbull problem really 🙂
[ Would you say that’s Mal’s first TEST? 😀 ]
Wot? The last few weeks have just been mock exams?? 🙂
Who else is ready for Kevin Andrews, new Liberal PM? 🙂
imacca@60
An election called now can still see parliament sitting again in time for a budget. Of course without a Senate half-election, this will cause a headache.
imacca – well we know how much importance the MSM places on weekly “leadership tests” once leadersh*t starts 😀
Raaraa @56,
You well could be correct.
My take is Turnbull is locked into ABCC passes or DD. Mo ifs or buts.
Amy pull back from that and weakness will be the new reality. He has already backed away from too much.
Anyway, we shall see. Whatever happens will not be boring.
Cheers
Imacca
Yes, Mal will go to the election with nothing on the table at ALL, but I seriously doubt he can make it that far. It is unraveling very fast. Clearly he no longer has the numbers in causus.
He may as well go to the polls now. If he wins he has returned with some authority, if he loses well he was going to be chucked out anyway.
Good one from House of Cards on Panama Papers
HouseofCards: When the money’s coming your way, you don’t ask any questions.
Have a feeling this Newspoll will get a thrashing in the media so Mal’s going to need to msmufacture a distraction pronto. Especially with Mr Grecian 2000 breathing heavily down his neck. Who can believe that !! Better to have Tones back is the the implication.
I hope Mal’s feeling particularly agile as I need a good laugh having been spoilt lately.
Airlines
[
Who else is ready for Kevin Andrews, new Liberal PM? 🙂 ]
Every time I see his name I think of Jack the Insider’s comment about a 15 minute meeting with Andrews. “It will be the worst 2 weeks of your life”.
Dog posting on an iPhone is hopeless.
[ An election called now can still see parliament sitting again in time for a budget. ]
True.
But my point is that to go to an election without doing a Budget means Malcolm and the Libs run face first into the whole issue of trust at a time when its obvious that people have at least developed serious doubts about them, and the ALP has a serious campaign ready to roll.
I think the LIbs would lose bad under that circumstance.
Diogenes@54
Name a state where it isn’t?
Here is an important observation:
[with no respite for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, despite the good press from last fortnight’s double dissolution ultimatum.]
To repeat the core of that:
[.. despite the good press..”]
It aint gonna stay good.
Tony’s mates will make sure of that.
poroti, 73
If Kevin Andrews is the best that the Monkey Pod can serve up, then God help them.
poroti
So funny re jack the insider. 😀
Imacca
I think that if Mal is deposed and replaced with Andrews or Abbott again, the liberals will take a hiding anyway.
Malcolm may as well go to the polls now.
Airlines
Perhaps it was a sad little April First joke 🙂 Otherwise it is indeed “God help them”
[MH
Have a feeling this Newspoll will get a thrashing in the media so Mal’s going to need to msmufacture a distraction pronto.
]
Given the CPG ignore Morgan, this is the first poll to put Mal behind… so it should get good coverage… although Morgan might suddenly get a mention to soften the blow.
[
Especially with Mr Grecian 2000 breathing heavily down his neck. Who can believe that !! Better to have Tones back is the the implication.
]
To save the furniture…
TheKouk: Seems like some decent corporate tax law would cover cost of Gonski and see a budget surplus. Great #4corners
Shorten is also backing Andrews’ tilt at the Liberals leadership.
[“When Mr Andrews says he wants to run for leadership, you know the Liberal party’s in trouble,” Mr Shorten told reporters in Perth.
“Now I never thought I’d say this, but maybe the Liberal party should have a look at Kevin Andrews. He couldn’t be any worse than Malcolm Turnbull’s proven to be.”
]
That Shorten fellow seems a real stirrer.
OMG! There is a Dog!!!
Diogenes@14
Yes this is what PM ratings do for some reason. They tend to run slightly ahead of changes in the 2PP.
One observation … I thought Pyne looked almost relieved that Newspoll wasn’t worse
My Lib sources tell me Credlin is particularly enjoying this poll!
mikehilliard
The original 2007 JTI article.
[Much of what he said is still a blur to me. I do recall him asking me if I was interested in joining Opus Dei but I told him I already had a Telstra contract]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_short_history_of_time_with_kevin_andrews/
latikambourke: “We need a narrative badly” MPs respond to #Newspoll https://t.co/SrEs7htHiS https://t.co/cwtAKgR0DM
[KB,
Yes this is what PM ratings do for some reason. They tend to run slightly ahead of changes in the 2PP.
]
Good. With Turnbull still dropping that means further TPP falls are in the bank.
I hate to think of the jokes Austalia will have about it overseas.
Like who is the PM of Australia this week?
Do they draw lots for PM?
All PM stationery now is printed in batches of 100?
Austalian PMs cannot travel overseas because their tenure does not survive the flight time.
Turnbull must be feeling a bit of a dill recalling parliament right about now.
On the live within their means slogan of the LNP.
Reminds me of Let them eat Cake!
So Latika Bourke has gone in for the kill already (citing MT’s Newspoll ezcuse for tipping out Tony)
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-and-the-coalition-lose-lead-to-labor-newspoll-20160404-gnycmg.html
Libs may still win the election as things are and will b close. But even if they win then what? They have no policies other than reduce funding for services and cut taxes for big business. And unions boo. And these won’t fly with the public, so every time one is floated it DOA.
So what’s the point? They can’t actually govern in their current state. And all bc they fundamentally do not have the Australian publics interest at heart. Almost every policy inkling (which is all shallow and Ill thought) they have benefits someone other than most of us. Big business (often international), donors, themselves, rich people. Never ur average wage earner, or sick person using a public hospital, a 6 year old going to a public school, a young person paying for their university education, or heaven forbid the environment. The public may b disengaged but I think they r realising this too.
Darren Laver,
Tell your Liberal sources that Peta Credlin was the genesis of the problem for the Coalition and will never be it’s solution.
[“We need a narrative badly”… ]
And it looks like they will be channeling Thatcher. Turnbull will very quickly get bored of riffing “living within our means”… he won’t be able to resist a few improvised variations.
poroti
Stop it I’m having a aneurysm!