Newspoll has turned in a headline-grabbing result, with Labor taking a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, reversing the result from a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down two), 36% for Labor (up two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is down one point on approval to 38% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has been sliced from 52-21 to 48-27. Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 32%, but also up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds only 19% in favour of allowing states to levy income taxes, with 58% opposed. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1743. Full tables behind a paywall at The Australian.
Also out today was the latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which reversed a sudden surge to Labor recorded a fortnight ago. The poll has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down two to 31% and the Greens down one to 13%. Where the last poll had Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, this one has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on the respondent-allocated measure, and 51.5-48.5 going off 2013 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 3174.
UPDATE: The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is once again at 50-50, although there’s movement on the primary vote to the extent of both major parties being down a point, with the Coalition on 42% and Labor on 37%, with the Greens up a point to 10%. Other findings: Chris Bowen is now rated more trusted than Scott Morrison to handle the economy by 23%, up four since January, with Morrison’s rating unchanged at 26%; a 34%-all tie on support and opposition for granting the states income tax powers, if “it would mean Federal income tax rates would be reduced”; 64% disapproval of tax-exempt status for religious organisations, with 24% in support; improvement in perceptions of the economy since January, with 32% describing its current state as good (up four) versus 27% for poor (down four); 32% saying the economy is heading in the right direction (up two since January), versus 37% for the wrong direction (down one). The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1038, with the voting intention results supplemented by the survey from the previous week.
Interestingly, Bill Shorten tonight suggested a Federal Labor Government would back WA Labor’s MetroNet rail plans. This alone could ensure Labor win a swag of extra seats in Perth and that WA Labor win 25 extra seats in the 2017 State election.
If Federal Labor back MetroNet, Labor could win Burt, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan, Moore and Pearce. Considering Stirling is also in play, WA could deliver as many as 7 new seats to Labor in the House of Reps. That would go a long way towards helping elect a Shorten Labor Government. It would also give Labor a chance of winning 6 Senate seats here too.
It is funny Libtika is a lot less Lib now that she left their ABC.
I guess she no longer needs to follow the ABC’s editorial line !
Wasn’t she moving to London in exile anyway? Or something else equally silly?
[“living within our means” is Dickensian in its gloominess]
It’s a near certain way of ensuring ordinary people will dump you at the first opportunity they get. It ranks alongside
“Let them eat cake”
and
“Life wasn’t meant to be easy”
KB
Thanks for that.
It’s also interesting how unrelated LOTO netsat was with 2PP.
It certainly fits exactly with the last 6 months.
I wonder if there is a positive feedback loop between PM netsat and 2PP which enters a death spiral.
[149
pedant
Recalling Parliament early: beautiful one day, blunder the next.]
And Mal thought he was sooooo clever, pulling that swifty on the crossbenchers.
153
Tom Hawkins
Absolutely.
My encounters with voters suggest they do not necessarily have high expectations; that sometimes they only wish for modest things. They take it very personally when they are told they will be denied even small things when they also see conspicuous waste and indulgence. In WA, this resentment is well-rooted and it’s directed against the Liberals.
Labor candidates represent a chance for voters to change the Government. This is very simple. Voters will queue up to support such candidates.
briefly – surely Pearce and Moore are beyond Labor’s reach?
MetroNet looks amazing – the plan for two loop lines, as well as the conventional radial system, is brilliant. I hope WA Labor is able to implement it.
[A narrative? That’s what they think they need?]
Likely it comes from the same place from where Andrews thinks he’d make a more effective PM.
Actually, based on what we’ve see from the coalition thus far, perhaps Andrews is justified in thinking he’d make a more effective PM than Abbott and Turnbull.
DL:
She has moved to London. Not sure what she’s doing there, but since she is no longer a member of the press gallery, she is a lot more forthcoming with her own views that’s for sure.
Asha Lau @150
[ Dutton? DUTTON? Placed in Treasury?
To be fair, I doubt he could be much worse than Morrison.]
Dutton’s head when carefully positioned can add an extra zero to the revenue number; thus putting paid to the deficit forever…
Dio@54:
[bemused
Here is another tragic failure of our mental health system.
POLICE took a man who stands accused of murdering his mother to hospital for mental health treatment only hours before he allegedly stabbed her to death at Kensington Park.
The 43-year-old, who a court has heard suffers from schizophrenia, was taken by police to the Royal Adelaide Hospital following a disturbance at a Marryatville hotel about 2pm last Wednesday, The Advertiser can reveal.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/alleged-kensington-park-killer-released-from-royal-adelaide-hospital-just-hours-before-mother-stabbing/news-story/7df8fe6937502a931e681c9c01c5dfbe
For Croweater PBers, SA Health is an absolute disgrace.]
It is not just in SA. NSW as well. We have a son with very complex and difficult mental health problems, and when he becomes paranoid (and sadly violent), we need to call the Police. The Police are great – they have our number on speed dial – but, when they take him to the Psych ward, the psychiatrists just ring me, and say “He is very sorry, he just lost it for a few moments, and is no danger to you.” I cannot tell whether they are willfully misunderstanding the danger, or are just misguided.
[Some history: Son was diagnosed with autism – non-specific but genetic – at age 7. The paediatrician (who was actually amazing) at the time told me that son could not live a normal life, but I just thought the paediatrician was not understanding how hard I would work to make sure he lived a normal life. I just thought he would “grow out of it”. He developed bipolar at ~14 yrs, although the diagnosis has now been revised to schizophrenia.]
When the psychiatrists let son go without treatment, the Police throw their hands up in horror – I know this because they tell me so – and maybe it is only 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 where it ends in disaster, but they also know they will be called to the crime scene. I will not go further, but we have friends in the Police force, the judiciary and the medical profession who have to watch the trauma caused in families by the complete lack of any mental health care in Australia at the moment.
Also, let tell you what my experience was with the much vaunted HeadSpace. Being a nice, well-educated middle class family, we quickly got son into “treatment” there. He was willing, and in a lot of mental pain, and looking for answers to help that mental pain. What was provided was a bit of Freudian analysis, but no concrete help. Son was very disappointed. Just because he has a severe mental illness does not mean he is not capable of logical thinking or insight into his condition and need for help.
When son and I asked at Headspace about how to get severely mentally ill son help to get accommodation outside the home, as the Police were worried he would kill us, we were given the address for Gumtree share accommodation.
In the end, we have taken the care of son upon ourselves. It is difficult, and we have been warned by mental health professionals that we risk ending up like the Waterlow family (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-10/coroner-recommends-mental-health-law-changes/5194846.
Nick Waterlow worked for the same institution that I do, which makes it seem a bit more real, but watching mentally ill son die on the street – and yes, we did put him on the street on the advice of health professionals, who seemed to think that mental illness does not exist- it is all bad behaviour – and once kid is on street, he will suddenly become sane.
I cannot believe I did this. I have 4 children, and the other 3 are independent high-functioning professionals, and why I just took, hook, line and sinker, that I had obviously somehow mysteriously failed in disciplining number 4, I do not know.
Unfortunately, our current Australian society no longer recognizes mental illness as a medical condition, but rather categorizes it as a moral condition.
Anyway, have bored you guys with this story before.
Fess
Odd that she is writing for Fairfax on Aussie politics from London. How quaint, how colonial!
Talk about the younger generation being hopeless monarchists!
Nola Marino has retained Liberal preselection in Forrest, if that means anything to you.
c@tmomma@125,
[What a pity Bob Ellis didn’t get to see this Newspoll.]
That was me reaction too!
[Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor]
Mr. (K) Andrews, come on down…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKtsdZs9LJo
Douglas and Milko – I had a very similar experience with a close relative. The abject failure of the NSW mental health system meant that my family was left to try and pick up the pieces, and ensured that the pain and suffering went on for much longer than it should have – years as a matter of fact.
We were subjected to the “moral failure” argument by nurses, doctors, psychologists, social workers etc, which is very much a cost minimisation and blame shifting strategy. It also needlessly destroys lives.
The Police were, funnily enough, often the least judgmental and most helpful professionals involved, but unfortunately were very constrained in what they could do.
WB @ 163
I live in Dalyellup, just out of Bunbury.
Nola Marino is the local member.
No it means nothing to me.
She is utterly invisible and useless.
She will be re-elected easily though.
Unfortunately.
[Nola Marino has retained Liberal preselection in Forrest, if that means anything to you.]
Must’ve been Malcolm’s letter of support what done it.
Douglas and Milko@161
That all had a familiar ring, but not because I have heard it from you before.
Coroners should take a stronger line and make some more robust recommendations that cannot be easily ignored.
You have my sympathy and best wishes.
But what specifically what mental healthcare would help exactly? I don’t understand.
In terms of family and public safety, we had asylums and institutions, but they were disbanded as they were seen as a cure worse than the disease.
But what else would work? You cannot force medication or other treatments — and outside of an institution, how can you truly monitor someone 24/7 for their and others’ safety?
I think it is easy to say the system is broken — harder to identify workable solutions.
So, as the ALP moves on from the RGR wars, is the LNP about to officially start the ATA wars by re-installing Abbott?
Tom
[Nola Marino has retained Liberal preselection in Forrest, if that means anything to you.]
We were waiting for that. I guess we can all go to bed now.
Darren Laver – Actually courts can and do mandate treatment and/or medication – the problem is that they are not always properly enforced.
As for other solutions, NSW could start by not closing mental health treatment facilities, not putting people with mental illnesses in prison, and by properly funding and opening residential facilities and refuges.
Jimmy Doyle@166
[Douglas and Milko – I had a very similar experience with a close relative. The abject failure of the NSW mental health system meant that my family was left to try and pick up the pieces, and ensured that the pain and suffering went on for much longer than it should have – years as a matter of fact.
We were subjected to the “moral failure” argument by nurses, doctors, psychologists, social workers etc, which is very much a cost minimisation and blame shifting strategy. It also needlessly destroys lives.
The Police were, funnily enough, often the least judgmental and most helpful professionals involved, but unfortunately were very constrained in what they could do.]
Thanks for your comment. it really helps to know that we are not the only people subject to this accusation of “moral” failing because we have a relative in need of mental health treatment.
And, for my money, the Police have been the most helpful when we have had mental health crises. They are sensible and knowledgeable. But, of course, front-line mental health care is not in their remit.
[ OCCRP @OCCRP
We have a new #panamapapers story coming within the next hour or so. And we’re working on around 30 (yep, thirty) more. #StayTuned ]
Given the volume of data that’s been leaked, it sounds like the press could still be going on this well into 2017 or beyond.
Darren Laver@171
With the arrival of effective medications for treating most cases of psychosis and depression, there was certainly a strong argument for scaling back institutional care. But it went way too far to the point where seriously ill people are either not admitted or are discharged too early and inappropriately.
Part of the ‘deal’ with de-institutionalisation was that resources would be made available to care for patients in the community. But it was far too little an frequently ineffective.
CAT Teams, which are supposed to attend crises, simply refuse to do so or are unavailable at the time and the front-line service is actually the police. The police usually do a fairly good job, but their use is inappropriate and results in occasional tragedies.
So there’s a bit to start thinking about.
JimmyDoyle@174
Oh yes, that reminds me. The largest Psychiatric Inpatient facility in Victoria is Port Phillip Prison.
And we are supposed to have de-institutionalised?
Nope, we just moved such people from a therapeutic environment to a prison.
Dan Gulberry@176
They should try data matching the infamous 800 with lists of Liberal Party members, donors and flunkeys.
Perhaps I can stimulate interest in the Forrest preselection with a little touch of Andrew Bolt:
[So who will be next to feel the curse of Abbott?
Nola Marino was one of Abbott’s deputy whips, charged with keeping him informed of the mood of the backbench. Very close to plotter Julie Bishop, she was, and she then voted for Turnbull.. There are very strong reservations from locals about her role and loyalties.
Let’s see how many share those reservations at Marino’s preselection showdown today, and whether Turnbull’s intervention is enough to save her.]
Marino’s winning margin was 51-16.
Darren Laver@171
[But what specifically what mental healthcare would help exactly? I don’t understand.
In terms of family and public safety, we had asylums and institutions, but they were disbanded as they were seen as a cure worse than the disease.]
Actually, they were pretty awful. Physical abuse of the inmates, women who were unlucky enough to experience puerperal psychosis locked away for life.
[But what else would work? You cannot force medication or other treatments — and outside of an institution, how can you truly monitor someone 24/7 for their and others’ safety?]
Actually, in Western Europe they do this quite successfully. Once someone comes to the notice of the law, particularly for violent behaviour, they are then required to go to a locked treatment facility, and undergo treatment.
It works fairly well, and there is no question of detaining people for life without treatment.
There are many sad cases, but one of the saddest I know of is that of Antony Waterlow, who killed his father and sister. His family had tried so hard to get him help, but the Psych wards would just let him go.
Of course, once he did kill the family, he was confined to a criminal psychiatric facility, and treated. He is now sane, and appalled at what he did.
It would have been great if he could have been confined and helped before he killed the family.
[I think it is easy to say the system is broken — harder to identify workable solutions.]
Cannot agree. In western Europe they do have the idea of enforcible court orders for people to get psychiatric treatment. They work.
Also, thanks to bemused and others for your thoughtful and helpful contributions to this discussion.
bemused
I said something similar on Twitter earlier today. I bet there’s a fair bit of overlap.
Dio @112,
I think Possum wrote this up once and concluded that yes netsat is a leading indicator and yes its causative.
bemused – nearly half of all prisoners have some form of mental illness, and former prisoners with mental illnesses are more likely to re-offend and therefore end up back in prison. As you say, the institutionalisation of the mentally ill has become more hidden than it used to be.
http://www.aihw.gov.au/prisoner-health/mental-health/
[ Marino’s winning margin was 51-16. ]
Lol! I bet their branch just set it up to annoy Dennis Jensen. 🙂
[ Let’s see how many share those reservations at Marino’s preselection showdown today, ]
Not many obviously. Bolta daH Predicta. 🙂
briefly @151,
It would be funny wouldn’t it that just this once, WA really does determine the election and it’ll be a long election night 🙂
[ I think Possum wrote this up once and concluded that yes netsat is a leading indicator and yes its causative. ]
Does that mean more pain for Malcolm to come?? Sadness. 🙂
Douglas and Milko @ 175 – dealing with hostile or apathetic health professionals on behalf of a loved one can be a very, very lonely experience.
JimmyDoyle,
Yes 🙁
And thanks for your support!
Douglas and Milko – no worries. All the best with your son. Good night 🙂
Darren Laver
When ignorant, poorly trained, poorly professionally supervised, often young, frequently arrogant and ill informed (as to “confidentiality”) mental health workers base their diagnosis soley on an interview with a deeply psychotic and delusional patient, at the same time treating extended family members with scorn and dismissiveness, and arrive at the conclusion that the patient is well, then the system is broken.
Having been through this process about 8 times in the last 20 years at several “acclaimed” institutions, the above is the rule, and exceptions have been rare.
In my last such experience about 6 weeks ago, the duty mental health clinician in emergency knew SFA, and when office hours eventually arrived at 9.00am she waltzed in to happily announce that she had booked our psychotic patient in to see a psychiatrist 5 days hence.
I sought the psychiatrists contact details, walked outside the hospital, phoned the psychiatrist, described the symptoms etc and got an appointment for 2 hours hence.
Dog only knows what the mental health expert naively told the psychiatrist in order to get the 5 days away meeting.
I am a retired ex-mental health worker with a little knowledge of the issues and processes. Dog help the ordinary Joe Blow family as they try to gain treatment for their mentally ill rels.
Yep, as a system, it’s broken. The only redeeming lights are the few skilful and caring mental health professionals one occasionally stumbles across quite fortuitously.
“despite the good press from last fortnight’s double dissolution ultimatum”
I still don’t understand why the media has spent so much time praising Turnbull for doing pretty much exactly what everyone was already expecting him to do.
Is it because a double-dissolution will give them more stories to write about and have people click on, or something?
Douglas and Milko
Thanks for telling about your situation. I have been a forced mental health carer for over ten years now. Fortunately it has felt much less dangerous in the last few years. When you reach the stage where you simply have to boot the person out to keep your own sanity – there is just nowhere for them. If you are the only one(s) that cares for that person and understands why they are the way they are – and that their state can change regularly – it is a hell of a moral dilemma.
Douglas and Milko,
My brother was a chronic paranoid schizophrenic and he spent time with me when I was a single mum in New Zealand. Even though he died some years ago, the system was by then being dismantled due to some having been committed when they shouldnt have been.
Do we close prisons because some people were erroneously imprisoned? There seems to be a criminalisation of mental illness, with the idea that somehow these poor souls can be dealt with in the community. My darling brother in his lucid times would sob and describe his episodes as having nightmares but not knowing whether he was dreaming or awake. There were times when he had no memory of what he had done. My mother had a milder version but that was when psychiatric hospitals would accept patients and because we were known, mum would be looked after.
I think it is time that we lobbied for more custodial places for those with psychosis….if we can spend money on prisons and detention centres, surely we can find the funds for our vulnerable loved ones.
Tom @172:
[So, as the ALP moves on from the RGR wars, is the LNP about to officially start the ATA wars by re-installing Abbott?]
I hope not. I stand to win roughly $500 if Abbott isn’t the Liberal leader at the next election.
PM Kevin Andrews is where it’s at. Under his watchful eye, the Coalition are bound to effortlessly coast their way to victory.
Further, carers and those directly involved dont have the time nor energy to struggle for justice. It is up to the rest of us to fight the good fight.
I happily discovered a few days ago that I had $100 or so in a betting account. Must have been sitting there since early 2013 when I had thought briefly that it was possible that Labor might claw back and I would have a flutter. They didn’t and so no bets were made and I forgot about it amidst life’s other dramas.
Anyway, within about five minutes after seeing tonight’s Newspoll it went on Labor at $4.50.
And the term “asylum” is surely what people with schizophrenia need at times?
From what I hear, private mental health clinics are now also being used for drug and alcohol withdrawal and anorexia, leaving less places for those with chronic schizophrenia.
And dont get me started on the money spent on preventing terrorrism…..many of us live with terror on a daily basis while treading water with a veneer of normality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5D07c0dJuQ