Newspoll has turned in a headline-grabbing result, with Labor taking a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, reversing the result from a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down two), 36% for Labor (up two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is down one point on approval to 38% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has been sliced from 52-21 to 48-27. Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 32%, but also up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds only 19% in favour of allowing states to levy income taxes, with 58% opposed. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1743. Full tables behind a paywall at The Australian.
Also out today was the latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which reversed a sudden surge to Labor recorded a fortnight ago. The poll has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down two to 31% and the Greens down one to 13%. Where the last poll had Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, this one has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on the respondent-allocated measure, and 51.5-48.5 going off 2013 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 3174.
UPDATE: The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is once again at 50-50, although there’s movement on the primary vote to the extent of both major parties being down a point, with the Coalition on 42% and Labor on 37%, with the Greens up a point to 10%. Other findings: Chris Bowen is now rated more trusted than Scott Morrison to handle the economy by 23%, up four since January, with Morrison’s rating unchanged at 26%; a 34%-all tie on support and opposition for granting the states income tax powers, if “it would mean Federal income tax rates would be reduced”; 64% disapproval of tax-exempt status for religious organisations, with 24% in support; improvement in perceptions of the economy since January, with 32% describing its current state as good (up four) versus 27% for poor (down four); 32% saying the economy is heading in the right direction (up two since January), versus 37% for the wrong direction (down one). The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1038, with the voting intention results supplemented by the survey from the previous week.
Norwester, i used Sportingbet for previous political betting but now that it has been taken over, cant use it for politics anymore, a pain since I dont bet on anything else.
Would you mind telling me which site you use? Cheers.
So begins the winter of MALcontent.
The days of phony tony are numbered.
I’m going to check e-bay tomorrow for “1 ex-PM. Low Kilometers. Only driven on Sundays. Bids please.”
Not because I want to buy one. I want to know who the Vendor is, Minchin or Kroger?
CTar1
The trouble with this model is it reverses direction every day or two and comes up with ridiculous every other day.
Warren – The plus is that it always comes back to where it started from. Just a bit more worn out each time.
Good morning. And a very fine morning it is for Labor.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has ceded the Coalition’s lead in an opinion poll for the first time since the leadership coup, when he said Tony Abbott’s poor performance in the same survey justified the change.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-and-the-coalition-lose-lead-to-labor-newspoll-20160404-gnycmg.html
‘That’s a four-word slogan’: Ray Hadley lashes Scott Morrison on government slogans and stunts
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/thats-a-fourword-slogan-ray-hadley-lashes-scott-morrison-on-government-slogans-and-stunts-20160404-gnxjny.html
If the Turnbull government is serious in wanting to clean up corruption, it should look further than the tarnished construction industry. It should take a strong position on corruption generally. At the moment Australia lacks this leadership.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/australia-slides-down-world-anticorruption-rankings-20160404-gnxjjq.html
The trouble for Chinese internet censors: the 2.6 terabyte trove of documents also named the family members of at least eight current or former members of the Communist Party’s elite Politburo Standing Committee including Deng Jiagui, the brother-in-law of President Xi Jinping.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/panama-papers-jump-chinese-language-barrier-get-suppressed-by-censors-20160404-gnydgr.html
Controversial law firm Mossack Fonseca helped conceal the identities of the directors of major government contractor Wilson Security, ABC’s Four Corners reported on Monday.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/wilson-security-implicated-as-panama-papers-exposes-australian-tax-haven-benefactors-20160404-gny8g3.html
The cost of the needed shift to renewable energy will be hefty enough. Approving big new mines means governments, such as Queensland’s, will need to find additional funds to pay for the transition of those coal miners out of the industry when it’s inevitably curbed, he said.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/giant-queensland-coal-mine-will-carry-hidden-cost-us-investor-predicts-20160404-gnxqta.html
The extraordinary lengths public service bosses will go to in pursuit of internal critics has been exposed by a Fair Work Commission unfair dismissal case.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/the-hunt-how-the-public-service-tracks-down-internal-critics-20160404-gnxjqv.html
The Senate standing committee on economics, which is investigating tax avoidance, is due to release its final report by 22 April.
http://www.theguardian.com/global/2016/apr/04/panama-papers-release-sparks-war-of-words-in-australia-over-tax-avoidance
The enormous drop of documents around the establishment of offshore accounts in tax havens could hold the key to an Aladdin’s Cave for the Australian Tax Office and regulators and investigators of white collar crime.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/ato-gets-fresh-list-of-australian-rich-tax-skirters-20160404-gnxwud.html
CSIRO: The cuts to monitoring, measuring and analysing climate data have been condemned by scientists in Australia and internationally
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/no-science-for-science-sake-emails-show-csiro-plans-to-cut-climate-research-20160403-gnxezq.html
“The result is major legal uncertainty and risks for anyone involved in any of the prescribed areas – which will filter through risk-averse university bureaucracies.”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/academics-fear-new-defence-powers-will-curtail-academic-freedom-and-research-20160403-gnxj1m.html
“If money didn’t matter, why would people spend $30,000 a year to send their kid to a school like Sydney Grammar, Malcolm Turnbull’s old school?”
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-worst-idea-ever-piccoli-blasts-pm-on-schools-20160404-gny3gw.html
Hillary Clinton was struggling to win over young women until Trump sounded off on abortion.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/hillary-clintons-oldschool-feminism-gets-a-trump-boost-20160403-gnxhl6.html
“I can absolutely assure you that if you vote for Malcolm Turnbull at the next election – and I hope you will because the alternative is Bill Shorten – that you will get Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister for the next three years,” Pyne said.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pyne-confirms-coalition-disunity-but-rubbishes-tony-abbotts-return-as-pm-20160404-gnycxv.html
Perceptions of Mr Baird have run negative in the first year of this term, going from a perfectly neutral rating of 50 to negative territory of 35.
http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/one-year-since-nsw-election-mike-bairds-sheen-starts-to-wear-off-20160404-gnxqh1.html
Canberrans drink more and at riskier levels than the nation’s average, with more than one in five drinking themselves into danger of chronic long-term harm.
http://www.theage.com.au/act-news/canberrans-drink-more-than-australia-and-more-than-before-calls-for-alcohol-crackdown-20160404-gnxq26.html
Queue a national security scare?
Perhaps it’s time for Mal to give us all a good talking-to. We don’t seem to understand how beneficial a Coalition government is.
Living Within Our Means is a particularly good slogan coming from a patrician PM who oozes privilege from every pore.
I love the lib comment from Latika’s article wtte
“Malcolm has got to actually do something”
That is precisely the problem, he has been doing things all year:
Safe schools, GST, bracket creep, etc. etc.
He would have been better off doing nothing apart from doing innovations press conferences.
lizzie
[Ray Hadley lashes Scott Morrison on government slogans and stunts]
Wow.
For the L/NP it’s just like the last week before Berlin fell to the Russians and when the Nazi’s lashed out at each other.
CTar1
Wow indeed. There must be a personal dislike involved. Hadley apparently loved Tony’s slogans and stunts. Love is a strange beast.
morning all
Thank you Lizzie for today’s offerings.
Daylight savings being over is stuffing around with my body clock. I have had an early start to the day. 🙂
Mungo MacCallums Musings :
Thus Spake Mungo: Lead Balloon
Another of Malcolm Turnbull’s thought bubbles has collapsed like a lead balloon.
Our Prime Minister’s bold back-to-the-future plan (back some 74 years, in fact) has been rejected within 48 hours, as soon as the premiers realised that it was not an April Fool’s day joke.
And it was hardly surprising. When Turnbull announced what he called the most fundamental tax reform in generations at the Penrith Panthers car park, without warning, detail or documentation, it was never going to be taken seriously.
And even the hapless Treasurer, Scott Morrison, once again caught short by his leader, said it was just speculation: he was certain that Turnbull had not intended to imply that state taxes could actually rise.
Whatever the merits or otherwise of Turnbull’s latest brainstorm, the result was a political fiasco, an ignominious defeat. The impression left to the public was of an arrogant and foolhardy captain’s pick, another illustration of the perception that the obscenely wealthy prime minister was more interested in his own agenda than with the legitimate daily concerns of ordinary people. Federation may well be a mess, a long term problem which should, in the long term, be resolved. But it is not an ambush in the lead up to an election campaign which Turnbull badly needs to clarify in the short months left to him and his government.
And blaming the premiers will simply not hack it. Turnbull is the prime minister of the commonwealth of Australia, and whatever loopholes the founding fathers left for the states in the constitution, there was one clear directive: if state laws conflict with commonwealth laws, the commonwealth will prevail. For all the lofty talk of consultation and cooperation, it is the Prime Minister who is the boss. So get on with it Malcolm – stop buggering about and start governing while there is still time.
READ MORE :
http://www.echo.net.au/2016/04/154892/
Where can the Liberals go from here?
Only one solution that might save the election for them from what I can see – Julie Bishop.
The takeout of revelations last night re the Panama leaks, is that we taxpayers are paying Wilson security oodles of money to oversee asylum seekers offshore. These same profits then go somewhere further offshore we they pay hardly any tax.
I understand fully what Turnbull means when he says we must live within our fiscal envelope
ajm
I know JBishop is busy travelling around the globe as part of her portfolio, but she has been very quiet on the domestic front. And when she is around, she looks postively spooked.
Their is no one who has any credibility left in the Libs. Morrison is the next biggest asset for Labor since Abbott. Go for it Morrison.
ajm
[Where can the Liberals go from here?]
Argentina & Paraguay. 😀
CTar1
Or perhaps Panama. 😀
vic – That’d be another option.
Uruguay not for them – too progressive & prosperous these days and besides they’d ruin the very nice beach resort towns there.
victoria 217
😀
[“I can absolutely assure you that if you vote for Malcolm Turnbull at the next election – and I hope you will because the alternative is Bill Shorten – that you will get Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister for the next three years,” Pyne said.]
Wasn’t this same line or similar part of the last Liberal election campaign.
Will people fall for it again? I don’t think so.
There is a use for fat.
[Researchers at the University of NSW say they have developed a new way to form stem cells from fat that could lay the basis for a system of tissue regeneration in humans.
The repair system, the researchers claim, could be used to repair damaged human tissue in situ, including for spinal discs, torn muscle and bone fractures. ]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/health/unsw-scientists-say-they-have-developed-tissue-repair-system-from-human-fat-cells-20160404-gnxykb.html
By the time we get to the next (recalled) sitting day there will have been a few more polls. If the trend remains as it is now we can expect some quaint questions from the ALP at question time.
I wonder if Kevin Andrews is waiting for his phone to ring.
Wonder if the CPG still think Turnbull manufacturing a DD is clever, courageous and audacious after all. Or the reality that it was profoundly stupid
lizzie
KAndrews has since said that he was taken out of context re leadership. All a big misunderstanding. No doubt, someone else will pop up today and provide another meme. 🙂
Thanks lizzie
Giant Queensland coal mine will carry hidden cost, US investor predicts
This brilliant Queensland Labor action green lighting an unnecessary mine owned by unscrupulous polluters could backfire real badly.
The thing will fail shortly after the overburden, and ancillary animals, plants and indigenous peoples are removed, leaving Queensland with a massive unfunded rehabilitation bill, as well as liabilities to the mine workers.
A truly shit for brains idea, Ms Palaszczuk.
[#PutLibsLast‼️ @johndory49
“Continuity & Change” & “States Taxes” ditched, #LNP’s slogan now is:
“WE MUST LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS”!!!
#auspol ]
Oops meant to say in last post that Jkennett last night on Lateline, seemed to think that living within our means is a good narrative. Fmd. You gotta hand it to this mob. They are stuffed
bemused@177 – How about traing some police members as CAT teams too?
Will the DD go the same way as State income tax or will he have the bottle to go through with it that is the question. with MALfunction It’s hard to say.
This election needs to be argued on the “it’s the economy stupid” principle.
People are aspirational, and I would argue that many already are not “living within their means”.
Aspiring to have a nice home in a good suburb, upmarket car, kids privately educated, are well and truly on the wish list for the many, and a reality for some.
But the idea that wages and conditions can be negotiated down, yet everyone ought to be able to afford good housing, cars, private health and education is a furphy. This pathetic excuse of a govt needs to be called out on it. The reality is that what is needed to fund basic housing etc. is getting difficult without a reasonable amount of income.
If Newspoll is accurate, where does Malcolm find the votes to come back? After three years of turmoil and after he’s disappointed expectations that he would right the ship, voters won’t be giving him a second chance. Would you sign on for three more years of this.
He’s even validated Tony, for godsakes. Tony can say I didn’t wreck your government – you did all that yourself.
Could also train them as well as traing them!
WarrenPeace
It depends on the real intention behind the DD, doesn’t it. I wonder if Mal remembers. It was at least five important actions ago.
[latikambourke: “We need a narrative badly” MPs respond to #Newspoll https://t.co/SrEs7htHiS https://t.co/cwtAKgR0DM ]
They have one. Steal from the poor to give to the rich, and oh please don’t notice we’re a rabble.
http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-culture/why-white-people-need-to-stop-saying-namaste-20160401-gnw2xx.html
BRIEFLY – Is MetroNet a good scheme?
[I had a very similar experience with a close relative. The abject failure of the NSW mental health system meant that my family was left to try and pick up the pieces, and ensured that the pain and suffering went on for much longer than it should have – years as a matter of fact.]
A close family member of mine works in Mental Health, and I can assure you that Mental Health management is more concerned with email chains, the politics of blame and meeting ministry KPIs than in actually healing the sick.
It wouldn’t matter if an axe murderer ran amok in the ward, as long as it was in the minutes of the strategy meeting and the possibility was covered by a risk assessment document that was available for the ministry’s accreditation surveyors to peruse, tick and then flick, prior to the coronial enquiry.
K17
[If Newspoll is accurate, where does Malcolm find the votes to come back? After three years of turmoil and after he’s disappointed expectations that he would right the ship, voters won’t be giving him a second chance. ]
Barring some cataclysmic water bird event, it’s a one way street for Malcolm.
As I have stated several times on this blog, the fundamentals simply aren’t there for the Coalition. It was simply a matter of the reality of Turnbull to seep into the collective consciousness of voters.
It may be that the seep turned into a gush, following the trixie attempt to push revenue responsibility onto the states. Voters don’t care which branch of politics does the taxing, so long as it isn’t a double up, and doesn’t look like a cynical internal blame shifting exercise.
Malcolm failed at even transforming his half baked attempt at policy into the latter!
I wonder what all this means for Senator Arthur Sinodinos AO?
Several months ago, I overcame a lifetime aversion to gambling and went into TAB to put down $500 on Labor at 6-1 and was told I couldn’t bet on an election over the counter in NSW. I’m in tears right now.
Sportsbet reports labor odds of winning at SUS.
At a guess, too many poll bludgers taking the $4.5 triggered an automatic suspension of betting and someone at Sportsbet is currently deciding on new odds.
Unfairly, they will still let you bet on the Libs at the old odds.
Several months ago, I overcame a lifetime aversion to gambling and went into TAB to put down $500 on Labor at 6-1 and was told I couldn’t bet on an election over the counter in NSW. I’m in tears right now.
After watching 4 corners last night, I fear for the well being of the two partners. And interestingly, it was mainly Dastyari, then Xenophon and SBY that were interviewed , no Libs!
outside left
Well being of the two partners?
@249
A well founded fear for their safety