Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The first Newspoll of the year records next to no change on voting intention, although Malcolm Turnbull has lost ground on preferred prime minister.

The Australian has brought us the first Newspoll result of the year, and it supports the trend of other polling in suggesting nothing much has changed over the new year break. The Coalition’s two-party lead remains at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (up one) and Greens 11% (down one). Bill Shorten has at least made up ground on preferred prime minister, which Malcolm Turnbull now leads 59-20, down from 60-14 in the last poll in December. The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation, with 37% in support. Stay tuned for Turnbull’s and Shorten’s personal ratings.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is on 53% approval and 31% disapproval, which is up a point on both counts since the last poll, while Shorten is up two to 25% and down one to 60%.

UPDATE 2: A second tranche of results from the poll finds 71% favouring an election late in the year compared with only 21% for an election in the first half of the year. Opinions on Tony Abbott’s future are finely balanced: 46% would have him remain in politics (26% on the front bench, 20% on the back bench), while 45% want him to bow out at the next election.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest two-week rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition lead back to 51-49 after its brief stay at 52-48 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Further results suggest a curious drop in support for a republic since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, with support down three since September to 36% and opposition up two to 31%. When specified that the change might occur at the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign, support goes up to 45%, with opposition at 29%. Fifty-six per cent think it likely that Australia will one day be a republic, compared with 24% unlikely. Despite this, there is broad opposition to changing the flag (33% support, 55% oppose), the national anthem (28% support, 54% oppose) and the date of Australia Day (23% support, 59% oppose).

A semi-regular question on trust in various media sources finds a slight across-the-board improvement since June last year, without disturbing the usual pattern of public broadcasting being viewed more favourably than the commercial media, and straight news being rated higher than opinion in its various forms. However, a question on individual newspapers finds opinions of The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald-Sun have improved, while the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Courier-Mail have not. This all but eliminates the gap between The Australian and the Fairfax titles, although the News Corp tabloids (particularly the Courier-Mail) continue to trail the pack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 45 of 48
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  2. [Would the last person in Sydney please turn the lights out?

    It is now illegal to buy a bottle of wine after 10pm in the City of Sydney because not a single one of us is to be trusted with any level of personal responsibility.

    Likewise it is now illegal to have a scotch on the rocks after midnight in the City of Sydney because someone might die.

    What is absolutely incredulous about this is that most of the rules were implemented by the NSW Liberal Party. This is the party founded on the bastion of economic liberalism, which is supposed to believe in the free market and that the greatest possible number of economic decisions are made by individuals, not organisations or governments.

    “As Mike Baird moved into the Premier’s office this week so did a significant influence: Jesus Christ. Mr Baird is a proud and committed Christian who once considered becoming an Anglican minister. His rise to the top has seen a concentration of powerful religious conviction among the upper echelons of the new government.]

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/would-last-person-sydney-please-turn-lights-out-matt-barrie

    Lenghty article, but well worth the read.

  3. Monica

    [what on earth does Turnbull or his ilk, think is going to drive innovation in this country.]

    Don’t worry, the private sector will take care of it. 😉

  4. ratsak,
    I know.
    It’s just that this country is going to be just totally borked. Malcolm and Lucy can simply relocate to a more convenient location post his PMship.

    Kevin 17,
    I do hope you are right.

    If Labor manage to do the almost impossible and get back in, the damage to the whole fabric of our society will be a Herculean task.

    Agree about keeping the NBN in the political frame. At least Labor are giving it their best shot .

  5. The worst thing about the stupidity of the Liberal Luddites, and the one that is going to cost us the most in the future, is the deliberate defunding of research in the pure sciences. It’s all about applications now, turning a buck now. It is pure science research that provides the real basis for future discoveries that lead to innovation. It’s hit and miss. We won’t know how valuable it is until after we’ve done it (much like a proper NBN), but we can be damn certain that it will repay us many multiples of what we spend (much like a proper NBN).

    The small minded penny pinching impoverishing of our future is ingrained in the Libs. Defund education, defund infrastructure development, defund science. Short term budget gains (shovelled to their rich supporters) for long term pain for everyone.

  6. CTar1

    If the LNP were smart, they’d agree to an inquiry with an expanded terms of reference. Nick Ross is only the tip of the iceberg, and not all the issues can be slated to Turnbull by any means.

  9. mikehilliard @ 2203
    for sure.

    ratsak @ 2205
    could not agree more.

    NathanA @ 2206
    you’re assuming the LNP are smart. Rat cunning I’d concede.

    The thing that gets right up my nose is the dumbing down of our society.

  10. Boris

    Just Wow! Kings X + Darlinghurst, Surry Hills were a huge part of my youth. The SOHO Bar was such a good venue, anyone remember Site?

    All the kids go to Newtown now apparently, or Darling Harbour??!!.

  11. Actually maybe the grand plan for Sydney is to shut down all the really cool venues so everyone is forced to attend the State LNP’s wonderland at Darling Harbour. Seriously you wouldn’t go there for a night out unless every other bar on Earth was closed.

  12. [As I always say, if our criminal justice system was a private business, its abysmal record in protecting health and safety would see it shut down by the authorities and/or sued into bankruptcy.]

    That is an unhelpful analogue drawn from extreme examples.

    The real q is do you want more people in goal. In NSW the answer is yes hence we now have tougher bail laws, stiffer senses, clogged courts and gaols – that has negative consequences as well

  14. vic

    Has any mainstream media picked up the Ross/ABC saga?

    Actually don’t bother answering that question, I know I’ll only be disappointed.

  18. Monica

    [what on earth does Turnbull or his ilk, think is going to drive innovation in this country.]
    Under this Liberal government the country is/will be bursting at the seams with innovative ways to avoid paying taxes and the rent seekers are particularly agile.

  19. perhaps someone could ask Truffles. 🙂

    [Rowan
    Rowan – ‏@FightingTories

    How would it be, being a PM that spent 80m tax$ to attack unions, saying they are corrupt, only to be found you invest in exploiting workers
    1:13 AM – 4 Feb 2016
    2 RETWEETS3 LIKES]

  21. Hi MikeH

    Yep, cross city is a graveyard now, remember my youth when go for steak Diane at 3 am, go after work for drinks at 2 stay till dawn, great seeing cross going from nite to lite was surreal.

    Writer says changes aimed to be fit casinos as they exempt from new laws, will be only place to get a drink in city.

    Also kills off Mardi Gra as kills off Oxford street and all the lgbti businesses and lifestyle there.

    God will cleanse the evil

  22. Shellbell

    While the analogy is rubbish, your response is pretty terrible as well. It’s perfectly reasonable to ask whether the legal system in NSW is putting the appropriate people behind bars for the appropriate amount of time. That doesn’t necessarily mean more people will be in gaol for longer.

  23. I was going to restart the Rudd Gillard wars but this popped up 🙂

    [Julian Assange: UN panel on detention ‘rules in fugitive Wikileaks founder’s favour’

    Fugitive Wikileaks founder had said he was prepared to leave Ecuadorian Embassy, where he has been hiding for more than three years, if experts ruled against him ]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/12139477/Julian-Assange-says-he-will-hand-himself-in-on-Friday-if-UN-panel-rules-against-him.html

  25. Fmd. What kind of a circus is Turnbull running!

    [Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    Paul Kelly says the PM wants to know specifics of what a GST increase would do before committing #SpeersTonight http://snpy.tv/1SuPHBp ]

  26. victoria

    [
    Fmd. What kind of a circus is Turnbull running!]
    Sky had Baird and Kelly etc on for a good half hour banging on about a GST rise. Amazing how much time they devote to something that is not proposed (cough) and just a Labor scare tactic.

  29. The first 2016 SA Chapter Event is now live, which means anyone on the mailing list will have an invitation, unless they have changed email address.

    The event is at Jaycee and Mrs Jaycee’s farm, on 27 February at Sedan, SA. Overnight sleepover facilities are available.

    The instructions for replying are in the email. If your details have changed or you want an invite, please send your correct contact details through William.

    This is going to be a goodun, don’t miss out.

  30. [Paul Kelly says the PM wants to know specifics of what a GST increase would do before committing ]

    Turnbull is a paradigm of Leadership.

  31. Jesus wept. You mean Turnbull is sitting in his office waiting for someone to bring him a piece of paper with the GST proposal? Jesus, he should be FORMULATING the proposal. What a tosser.

  33. Earlier a couple of Bludgers were lamenting the end of “life” in Sydney. They are not alone.

    [ ‘Would the last person in Sydney turn out the lights?’ Businessman’s epic 8000-word rant about Sydney’s depressing nightlife and how ‘everything is now illegal – including fun’

    …A succession of incompetent governments has systematically dismantled the entire night time economy through a constant barrage of rules, regulation and social tinkering.

    ….There is a certain time we are allowed to buy some drinks, and over the course of the night the amount of drinks we are allowed to buy will change. The drinks we buy must be in a special cup made of a special material, and that special material will change over the course of the night at certain times. The cup has to be a certain size. ……It is now illegal to buy a bottle of wine after 10pm in the City of Sydney because not a single one of us is to be trusted with any level of personal responsibility. Apparently there is an epidemic of people being bashed to death over dinner with a bottle of Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc that we have all been blissfully unaware of. ]
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3430102/Matt-Barrie-s-scathing-review-Sydney-s-nightlife.html

  34. TPOF@2230

    Paul Kelly says the PM wants to know specifics of what a GST increase would do before committing


    Turnbull is a paradigm of Leadership.

    So he should just do it with no idea of the effects?

    That’s not good policy making and even worse leadership.

    But they should have investigated all of this long ago.

  38. [It is now illegal to buy a bottle of wine after 10pm in the City of Sydney because not a single one of us is to be trusted with any level of personal responsibility.

    Likewise it is now illegal to have a scotch on the rocks after midnight in the City of Sydney because someone might die. ]

    Should try living in the Pilbara and Kimberley where no matter what time of day you can’t by a full strength beer, no more than 750ml bottle of spirits, and you can only make one take away purchase per day

  39. it’s only a matter of time until Mobsters capitalise on that need for a ten minute taxi ride after 10pm and start smuggling moonshine into the Sydney lockdown zone

  40. [38.WWP – Do you mean Rudd or Bernadi?]

    If you are in the club with Bernardi hating Rudd in my book your intelligence and credibility rates well below Bernardi.

  42. [Paul Kelly says the PM wants to know specifics of what a GST increase would do before committing ]

    everything will go up 5% and debt will not be lowered

  43. poroti@2236

    bemused

    So he should just do it with no idea of the effects?


    Ya reckon they haven’t already done 101 variations ?

    You reckon they are smart enough to have done that? I wouldn’t be too sure of that.

  49. bemused @ 2234

    [But they should have investigated all of this long ago.]

    And that’s the point of my comment.

    He’s let all this stuff loose and sat back other than to claim that being on the table renders any idea free of criticism. Howard, at least, had a pretty good idea of what he wanted to achieve by introducing the GST. This mob seem to be playing around with ideas as though it was a resource poor opposition, not a government with all the public service and other resources of an incumbent government ready at hand.

    Despite what the great unwashed keep thinking, this is the third year of a Coalition government, not the first few months. They may have changed their leader, but that does not give it the freedom to write off two years of this nation’s life as a wander down a dead end with no implications going to the future.

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