The Australian has brought us the first Newspoll result of the year, and it supports the trend of other polling in suggesting nothing much has changed over the new year break. The Coalition’s two-party lead remains at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (up one) and Greens 11% (down one). Bill Shorten has at least made up ground on preferred prime minister, which Malcolm Turnbull now leads 59-20, down from 60-14 in the last poll in December. The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation, with 37% in support. Stay tuned for Turnbull’s and Shorten’s personal ratings.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is on 53% approval and 31% disapproval, which is up a point on both counts since the last poll, while Shorten is up two to 25% and down one to 60%.
UPDATE 2: A second tranche of results from the poll finds 71% favouring an election late in the year compared with only 21% for an election in the first half of the year. Opinions on Tony Abbott’s future are finely balanced: 46% would have him remain in politics (26% on the front bench, 20% on the back bench), while 45% want him to bow out at the next election.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest two-week rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition lead back to 51-49 after its brief stay at 52-48 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Further results suggest a curious drop in support for a republic since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, with support down three since September to 36% and opposition up two to 31%. When specified that the change might occur at the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign, support goes up to 45%, with opposition at 29%. Fifty-six per cent think it likely that Australia will one day be a republic, compared with 24% unlikely. Despite this, there is broad opposition to changing the flag (33% support, 55% oppose), the national anthem (28% support, 54% oppose) and the date of Australia Day (23% support, 59% oppose).
A semi-regular question on trust in various media sources finds a slight across-the-board improvement since June last year, without disturbing the usual pattern of public broadcasting being viewed more favourably than the commercial media, and straight news being rated higher than opinion in its various forms. However, a question on individual newspapers finds opinions of The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald-Sun have improved, while the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Courier-Mail have not. This all but eliminates the gap between The Australian and the Fairfax titles, although the News Corp tabloids (particularly the Courier-Mail) continue to trail the pack.
prestontowers: Wow. Racial profiling, watching refugees. This Government is pretty close to getting into fascist territory. https://t.co/6j8XogGKe9
Dave Oliver now on Lateline
‘focus on one’ = introverted national view = conservatives.
WillPJK: Hi @TurnbullMalcolm,
The UN ruled #Assange’s exile illegal. Will you stand up to the British government re: plan to arrest?
#AusPol #UKPol
TPOF@2249
Sorry, didn’t read that into your comment.
Nothing this lot does or fails to do causes me any surprise.
WillPJK: Unions want fair wages and conditions too, Tony. #Lateline
SteveCannane: Good scoop by Lippo, tune in at 1030 on ABC 1 if you missed it. https://t.co/TqWvFGkA2O
Quick notes:
‘ CBA bank staff implicated in alleged 76 million dollar fraud’
Royal Commission now!
* I’m marching in the gay and lesbian Mardi Gras this year! I just want to get up close to the Dykes on Bikes. 🙂
* My eldest son works in Newtown every Friday night. It’s where the action is.
* Does Malcolm Turnbull think he’s the Emperor? WTH is this, ‘Bring me a GST proposal and I will acquiesce to it’ malarkey all about? If he doesn’t watch out people will notice he has no clothes on!
Lateline: EXCLUSIVE report by #Lateline’s @davidlipson https://t.co/YdwwmPEIzK
gt
[The UN ruled #Assange’s exile illegal. ]
Probably what will come out tomorrow but still only ‘according to BBC reports’.
The reasons of the court and govt reaction will be interesting.
MaryKostakidis: Julian’s lawyers will hold a press conference at the Frontline Club in response at noon GMT Friday #Assange #auspol
SUSC @2242
I believe that GSTs (including GST increases) drives down real wage growth, and also drives down small business earnings by a similar mechanism.
The mechanism is that the potential (5)% retail price increase needs to be paid for by someone. The people who could pay are:
– consumers, by paying higher prices
– shareholders, by accepting lower profits
– suppliers, including workers, by accepting lower wages
With the current distribution of market power the losers in this competition will mostly be suppliers rather than customers and(in particular) investors. This has probably shifted in favour of consumers and against supplier since the GST was originally introduced. And of course the competition has been heavily weighted in favour of shareholders since capital become globally mobile.
guytaur @ 2251,
‘ prestontowers: Wow. Racial profiling, watching refugees. This Government is pretty close to getting into fascist territory.’
Don’t forget Centrelink have hired snoops to trawl the social media accounts of anyone on welfare.
CT
Some very interesting late breaking stories tonight. Meanwhile Dave Oliver doing great defence on the Turc.
What’s the problem with Rudd going to the UN? No better/worse than many others there.
If, as many of the red necks in Oz are correct, and the UN is a seething mass of leftie/bleeding hearts, whose various conventions Oz has somehow been sucked into being part of, then Rudd should be right at home.
guytaur@2251
Hyperbole without substance.
Unfortunately, this is pretty much on the mark.
[Meanwhile, the Lebanese community is singled out in the document as the “most prominent ethnic group amongst Australian Sunni extremists”.
The document points to “lessons learned” after a wave of migration to Australia as a result of the Lebanese civil war between 1975 and 1990.
“Australia’s historical experience with the Sunni Lebanese community illustrate potential community safety and national security risks associated with unsuccessful integration,” it said.
The document says Australia’s intake from the Lebanese conflict “was largely from the poorer and uneducated Lebanese Muslim population”, introducing a new element to the largely Christian Lebanese community in Australia.
“This led to the transportation to Australia of a Sunni community which included elements who already held extremist beliefs or who were more highly receptive to extremist messages,” it said.]
Misgivings were expressed at the time about the extremely lax checks done on prospective migrants.
bemused
Watch the full report before you jump to the defence of the fascists.
The monitoring after they are bona fide citizens is fascist style behaviour.
E G T
That retailers are discounting heavily now in things other than food and motor vehicles is obvious.
bemused
I can pick a few murderers and make the same case about security risk by citizens to the community at large.
Its racial profiling. Just lacking the yellow star on jackets.
smh: A UN panel has ruled that Julian Assange is being unlawfully detained in London https://t.co/alFeAZMjCc | @NickdMiller
guytaur@2267
I don’t defend fascists.
I object to lax standards in the past or present in background and security checks on prospective migrants.
Your enthusiasm for open door is entirely in keeping with your Green proclivities and is fairly-land stuff.
bemused
Watch the report. The racial profiling is in the documents. Thats not fairy land stuff its the reality of nightmare of the government we have.
guytaur@2269
I am not responsible for the fact that at the present time the main danger comes from certain ethnic and religious groups. In the past it has been others and they should have been similarly treated.
bemused
You would have said exactly the same about the national security risk of the Jews. If not explain how not.
This is how your responses are reading to me.
The use of four incidents to generalise about a whole race is racial profiling and fascist.
guytaur@2274
I am not aware of any terrorism campaign by Jews outside of Israel and Palestine at the present time. Care to enlighten me?
bemused
Do yourself a favour and watch the report. What the LNP are doing is not what you are describing. Its their excuse for racial profiling and fascism.
Only real threats should be monitored. Like Monis for the mental health failings which have nothing to do with terrorism and the excuse to use that to monitor a whole race who have become citizens.
guytaur@2276
I am a regular watcher of programs like Lateline on the PB despised ABC. I won’t miss it.
bemused
Well I have already watched it on Lateline. I am reacting to the story Lateline broadcast.
guytaur@2278
You are prone to jump at shadows.
Reuters: Breaking News: British Foreign Office: allegation of rape outstanding against Julian Assange, so UK has a legal obligation to extradite him.
bemused
Watch the bloody report before you jump to conclusions.
[Leaked government document outlines tougher migration program, increased monitoring of refugees
Lateline By political correspondent David Lipson
Updated 27 minutes ago
Immigration Minister Peter Dutton
PHOTO: The document suggests Peter Dutton plans to make changes to the citizenship test and pledge. (AAP: Lukas Coch)
A leaked Cabinet document suggests Immigration Minister Peter Dutton is planning to make sweeping changes to the Government’s humanitarian resettlement program, making it harder to get permanent residency and increasing monitoring of migrants.
Key points:
Leaked document outlines plan to remove direct access to permanent residence
Overhaul the citizenship test and citizenship pledge
Increase monitoring of migrants, even after they’re granted citizenship
Points to link between terrorist attacks and humanitarian intake
The document obtained by Lateline reveals the extent of the Government’s concerns about terrorism and the lengths it is prepared to go to keep radicals out of Australia.
Marked “protected”, “sensitive” and “cabinet”, the document is believed to contain recommendations for Mr Dutton to present to Cabinet’s National Security Committee.
The document points to the recent attacks in Paris and unrest in Germany as it outlines “a package of reforms to simplify Australia’s visa framework and create stronger controls over access to permanent residence and citizenship”. Those changes include:
An enforceable integration framework to assess aspiring migrants’ suitability for life in Australia
A revamped citizenship test and citizenship pledge
Enhanced access, use and protection of sensitive information to strengthen intelligence-led, risk-based decision making, from pre-visa stage through to post-citizenship conferral.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/leaked-document-outlines-changes-to-migration/7140952
guytaur
[ Watch the bloody report before you jump to conclusions. ]
Befuddled jumps to conclusions so fast and so often he should try out for the olympics.
guytaur@2281
It is common practice in many fields to focus your attention and resources where they will be most effective.
It sounds to me like this is all that is being done.
Puffy @ 2229:
Do you have my correct email addy? PM me on Facebook if you don’t.
I am up for it and my baby girl can babysit.
😀
bemused
Yeah monitoring citizens is so standard now. No warrants needed to invade privacy of every citizen if you happen to be Lebanese.
I bet if Assange walks out of the embassy tomorrow he will be arrested by the UK. UN findings have no legal status.
Dickhead One@2283
You lack the cognitive ability to join the dots and reach any conclusions.
Some Lib must be pretty disgusted with Dutton’s recommendations to have leaked them already.
Diogenes
Of course. David Cameron has to back down and say they were wrong to support Sweden if he follows UN advice.
UN finding is not binding legally on UK.
[Reuters: Breaking News: British Foreign Office: allegation of rape outstanding against Julian Assange, so UK has a legal obligation to extradite him.]
And so they bloody should, if Assange was a catholic priest rather than a dangerous nutter, you’d be calling for his summary execution.
Diogenes
I forgot to add I doubt Cameron has that political courage.
WWP
Assange has a case. UN ruling proves it.
WWP
I am not saying Assange is a saint innocent of anything. I am just saying he has a case to fear the US extradition.
Sweden is at fault for not doing what it has done in the past and interviewed him in the UK.
guytaur@2286
Why is there a Middle East Crime Squad?
guytaur
I’m not sure it really has much to do with Cameron theoretically. It should be a legal decision, not a political one.
We certainly wouldn’t want our PM intervening in extradition matters and I don’t think they even have the power to do so.
bemused
This is a document that uses racial profiling. If anyone is a citizen they have rights by being a citizen.
A Lebanese person has exactly the same rights as you or me. Legislation changing that is racist legislation.
[
Assange has a case. UN ruling proves it.
]
The UN says it is unlawful detention but it isn’t detention at all, he went there and stays there entirely voluntarily as he hides from British justice. Surely he has committed an offence in the UK as well and should do jail time in the UK after the result of the Swedish trial.
[Bridget O’Flynn
Bridget O’Flynn – @BridgetOFlynn
Rumour on Sky News (via Paul Murray) is the SSM plebiscite will be held at the election to save $$.
3:33 AM – 4 Feb 2016
1 RETWEET1 LIKE]
[I am not saying Assange is a saint innocent of anything. I am just saying he has a case to fear the US extradition.
Sweden is at fault for not doing what it has done in the past and interviewed him in the UK.
]
I’m with Sweden, and quite frankly happy for him to end up in the US.