Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, as respondents say yes to Australia Day and no to increased military involvement in the Middle East.

I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.

Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  4. [The reverse psychology intended by mocking Shane Watson as captain worked perfectly.]

    tbf Watto has always been pretty handy at the white ball stuff.

  5. The libs really are living in a fools paradise if they think they can get to an election and not have sorted out issues like SSM plebiscite, Tony standing again, direct action, etc etc. At that point, voters are going to pay attention and say: “You mean, you haven’t sorted this s… out.” The dynamic will be very different.

  8. One day in the future people at the SCG can say they saw Shane Watson score a hundred and then throw the ball to Shaun Tait and Scott Boland to open the bowling. No one will believe them.

  11. [Must be a few years since he got a ton in one day cricket]

    30 Oct 2013, 102 v India Nagpur.

    Played 20 ODIs since then averaging 32.35 sr 97, so not terrible.

    Retired from Test cricket 8 years too late at least though.

  14. [1681
    Kevin17
    I’ve gotta say, I thought Weatherill was pretty good until he came up with the GST/Gonski crap.    ]

    1689
    pedant
    What is it about Labor premiers that so many of them seem to want to help the other side?

    I have to defend Weatherill. He’s been a brilliant leader for SA. SA has been slammed by economic changes beyond its control and so simply HAS to transition its economy. Unfortunately, for a state like SA that means heavy government involvement to get things like Microsoft Innovation Centre (MICSA), the SA Medical and Health Research Centre, the possible reboot to car manufacturing, light rail, the festival etc etc going. Furthermore, SA still needs to make big improvements to its education system, and the Royal Adelaide Hospital is an ongoing problem.

    All of this requires funding, which SA does not have a lot of. Under a Liberal federal government, SA has no option but to seek GST funding to solve problems not if its own making, but for which SA voters may very well blame them for.

  15. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@1672

    KEVIN – Is there some sort of calculation of the percentage likelihood that Bludger-tracker is right or one of the extreme polls is right (e.g. 57-43 or 52-48). I would have thought that the more extreme the polls, the less reliance can be placed on bludger-tracker? But then again, I still don’t understand what Bayes’ Theorem is.

    I don’t think there’s a reliable way to calculate a percentage likelihood. Under normal circumstances the chance that an outlier poll is closer to political reality than BludgerTrack is virtually zero. However these are not normal circumstances – strange stuff happened to the behaviour of some polls when Turnbull took over and it still might be that one or other of the outliers is right.

  16. JimmyDoyle@1668

    1653
    Kevin Bonham
    So as discrepancies go there is really not a lot to see anymore


    Fair enough. But surely the discrepancy between Turnbull’s PPM ratings and the LNP’s polling numbers is of note? (notwithstanding that Prime Ministers are usually always ahead in PPM ratings)

    Turnbull’s PPM leads are explained entirely by: the Coalition’s 2PP lead, Turnbull’s popularity and Shorten’s unpopularity. Historically they are completely to be expected given these three factors.

  19. Interesting to see the comments about the Gonski funding…righties always asking where the funding will come from yet the righties never have the same qualms about where the funding for $24Bn fighter jets will come from

  20. JimmyDoyle
    Good post, until …”SA has no option but to seek GST funding …”
    There are plenty of other options.
    Other options would be to attack the deliberate oppression of the GST, point out forcibly the incompetence of the COALition economic management, explain to the public that many of the woes of SAs economy can be directly blamed on the COALition and not white ant the federal ALP anti GST stance.
    A mixture of all or some of the above plus other options are entirely possible.
    Rolling over subserviently and echoing the COALition spin is a false option.

  22. [Good post, until …”SA has no option but to seek GST funding …”]

    tbf to Wetherill he simply seems to be playing the classic Premier’s gambit of “sure, we’d love a bucket full of money that the Federal Government is going to cop the political heat for raising”.

    If he ain’t getting the cash he’s not supporting raising the GST. You can bet the Libs won’t be going to the election proposing more money for the states so Jay will be campaigning strongly against them when the details emerge.

  23. Weatherill is correct to ask for more details from Shorten about funding Gonski but he hardly needs to do it so publicly and negatively.

    Saying you are getting it from cig excise, cracking down on corporations avoiding tax, etc sounds good but Weatherill will be worried Shorten hasn’t provided details and a few measures get wound back, he’ll be left holding the baby.

  24. [1720
    shea mcduff
    Rolling over subserviently and echoing the COALition spin is a false option.    ]

    That would be the wrong thing to do, but that is not what Weatherill did. This supposed conflict between Weatherill and the federal party is a media beat-up that betrays their desperate desire to talk about Labor instability.

    Weatherill’s position is, and has always been, that a GST increase should go exclusively to the states to fund healthcare and education, which Turnbull has all but ruled out, meaning SA is essentially opposed to a GST increase.

    Other options would be to attack the deliberate oppression of the GST, point out forcibly the incompetence of the COALition economic management, explain to the public that many of the woes of SAs economy can be directly blamed on the COALition and not white ant the federal ALP anti GST stance.

    I agree with all those points and an Opposition Leader should indeed be making those points, and Shorten IS making those points. But a Premier (at least a Labor one anyway) has a responsibility to make material improvements to the lives of people in their state.

    Furthermore, Weatherill has a responsibility to entertain the possibility that Turnbull might win the next election, and the one after that. If that’s the case, then it is incumbent upon Weatherill to at least try to get increased GST revenue for SA.

  31. Well played India (and Shane Watson). We actually batted pretty well and Watson led well in the field and bowling too. But we are badly short of bowlers.

    Regarding the submarine contract and debate, To try to understand it better I found a fascinating book The Collins Class Submarine Story by Peter. Yule. You can get it here.
    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Collins-Class-Submarine-Story-Steel/dp/0521868947/ref=sr_1_61?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1454240719&sr=1-61&keywords=submarine+warfare+modern

    What a thorough book! It details all that went right and wrong with the Collins Class, pointing out that in the end ASC produced a very good sub, and the problems mainly related to bad DSTO contract management decisions and the performance of sub contractors (Rockwell). Really worth a read for any politician or staffer who has to deal with defense.

    After reading it I now firmly believe we can build some quite good subs here (ASC in Adelaide) as long as we get the contract and suppliers right. So I hope they pick the German bid, who seem to have the best track record at working with foreign builders. Od course, politics will decide, not merit, but the above book is a salutary lesson in that too., Night all.

  32. One more thing on the Collins book. In light of Rockwell’s performance, we have absolutely no reason to buy the Jap subs because the Americans say so. The USA would quite cheerfully see us spend $20 billion on a less reliable option if it suited their strategic interests.

  33. imacca@1730

    I have to admit. I am really looking forward to visiting this site:

    http://theredandtheblue.org/

    occasionally if the ALP win this year. just to see what REAL frothing apoplexy looks like. Oh…and observing the deluded at NutterTruckers of course.

    Do you have a link for the NutterTruckers? I haven’t checked them out for ages and don’t have a link.

  34. JimmyDoyle @1725
    Weatherill comments on Gonski were unreasonable and disloyal and you were a premier in SA with all its problems when?

  36. [ Do you have a link for the NutterTruckers? ]

    http://joannenova.com.au/

    I visit very infrequently now. Its turned into a bit of a donate to me scam site I reckon, particularly with their association with Monkers dah Bonkers and his Cool Futures Hedge Fund.

    Another site you may like (its sort of the exact opposite to NTruckers i think) is:

    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/

    Which is sort of a sarcy, bugger it go ad hominem version of http://www.skepticalscience.com/

    Ahh i see GWV has Newspoll out.

  38. Jason

    It’s not like Shorten is in a position to do anything about SA’s finances. He’s probably going to lose the next election anyway so Weatherill isn’t helping anyone other than himself to a bit of popularity.

    Unless he thinks targetting Shorten will get him a better deal from Turnbull…

  39. JimmyDoyle @ 1714: “…Under a Liberal federal government, SA has no option but to seek GST funding to solve problems not if its own making, but for which SA voters may very well blame them for.”

    JimmyDoyle @ 1724: “Weatherill’s position is, and has always been, that a GST increase should go exclusively to the states to fund healthcare and education, which Turnbull has all but ruled out, meaning SA is essentially opposed to a GST increase.”

    I hope Mr Weatherill isn’t as confused in his thinking as these two comments would suggest. And given that it would appear that a conversation between Mr Weatherill and Mr Shorten has finally taken place, one might wonder why that didn’t happen before Mr Weatherill went public with comments so helpful to Mr Turnbull, his Treasurer and his government?

  40. JimmyDoyle
    As a card carrying member of the SA ALP I agree with what Weatherill is doing! I don’t belong to any faction, but SA has problems with an aging population shrinking tax base and the people still expect services. Bourke stuffed up today by having a go at Weatherill as most of Federal ALP’s costings would be at the will of the senate. Jay and those who follow him might want something a bit more reliable

  41. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@1705

    The libs really are living in a fools paradise if they think they can get to an election and not have sorted out issues like SSM plebiscite, Tony standing again, direct action, etc etc. At that point, voters are going to pay attention and say: “You mean, you haven’t sorted this s… out.” The dynamic will be very different.

    I really hope you are right, but I fear you are mistaken.

    Never underestimate the Oz population’s capacity for apathy.

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