Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, as respondents say yes to Australia Day and no to increased military involvement in the Middle East.

I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.

Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. dtt, 2697

    in 2668 you said:

    [The reality is that men have a Y chromossome and only 1 X chromosome.]

    Which I’m presuming means that you believe that your gender is linked to your chromosomes (ie XX = female, XY = male). If this therefore means that if you are not XY you are not male and you are not XX you are not female, this would therefore mean that all people who have different chromosomal makeups would not be male or female. Thus it would follow that not being XX or XY would make you neither male nor female, but a vast majority of intersex people do not consider themselves gender nonbinary.

  4. Not much of a circuit breaker, no wonder Bludgertrack hardly needs an update. Anyhow the holidays are over so hopefully we see something of substance in the next month.

  5. Airlines – indeed. Victorian Greens Senator Janet Rice’s wife is transgender female, and former WA Labor Senator Louise Pratt has a transgender male partner.

  7. Jimmy

    No I think you are thinking about cultural roles that have only a limited association with gender. i am thinking in terms of biology.

    Societies develop cultural behaviours that suit the particular curcumstances, and in harsher times this related to the ability to survice and reproduce – ie to get food and shelter and not to be devoured by predators or killed by aggressive neighbours.

    Now fairly obviously most men (not all) and stronger and taller than most (not all) women. For most societies therefore the maximum survival will occur when men are allocated the hard physical tasks and also tribal/family defence. However actual dominance in the culture is not always linked to gender and in many human (and animal) societies, females are dominant. There is a school of thought that suggests that in societies where MOST of the food comes from agricuture or from gathering plants and small animals, the society will largely be matriarchal in character. When herding is dominant, society becomes more patriarchal.

    The nurturing role is OBVIOUSLY biologically determined, since in early human society a child would only live if it had breast milk, usually to the age of 4 or so. Women were thereofore forced into the nurturing role – there was little option, especially in the absence of birth control. In most societies (including feudal Europe) the training of a boy/nurturing was male dominated from the age of 7 or so.

  8. Airlines
    That is not much better. However, as far as power imbalances go, the appropriating of the female is more contentious, I feel. I stress these are feelings, not intellectual arguments. I would not discriminate nor harbour any ill will to a person who had gender reassignment. It just that I do not feel gender can be ‘assigned’.

    Maybe if I had direct experience of someone I knew had GI my attitude would change.

  9. Puff

    [ It just that I do not feel gender can be ‘assigned’. ]

    I understand that most gender reassignment occurs because a person believes the gender they have physically is not the same as the gender they feel they are. So it is not being “assigned” as much as “corrected”.

  10. Airline
    I am not sure what you are getting at.

    For those people who choose gender reassignment, but who have traditional XX or XY cheonosomes, yes my point stands. At a cellular level they will always be male or female, and we do not at this time have the scientific technology to seriously change this. This goes much deeper than just sexual functions or hormones, but includes breathing, sight, blood clotting etc.

    For those people who are genetically (or occasionally developementally) intersex the situation is more complex. They will have features of both genders, but also will often have many unrelated physiological and mental health issues, simply because they carry an extra chromosome (or two). I think for this group they should be able to choose their gender based on medical and psycholocal advice, or stay intersex if they so choose.

  11. daretotread @ 2703 of previous thread – as I said in my previous post to you, gender is obviously linked to our bodies and what their capacity to do things is – after all, they are our terms of reference for everything else.

    For the vast majority of people gender and biological sex conform to pre-existing expectations and norms, but that is not the case for everyone, just as most, but not all, people are attracted (at least primarily) to the opposite sex. Indeed these pre-existing expectations are why people often find it easier to accept ‘straight-acting’ homosexuals (masculine gay men, and feminine gay women). Feminine gay men are subjected to some pretty horrific abuse, even from other gay men, simply for not conforming to what would be expected of them based on the equipment they have.

    [No I think you are thinking about cultural roles that have only a limited association with gender.]

    This is a distinction without a difference – culture is intimately tied with our gender and our biological sex. Why, after all, were parents of intersex children very quick to ‘pick’ a gender for the child and have the inconvenient body part removed, often to the child’s detriment when they came to realise their true gender?

    As I said before, gender, just like sexuality, is enormously fluid. I don’t know why some people are so afraid of transgender people.

  12. dtt, 10

    I’m trying to say why do intersex people not overwhelmingly identify with a non-binary gender if they are of a non-binary sex? If gender and sex were the same thing, wouldn’t it follow that there would be a massive majority of intersex people identifying as genderqueer?

  13. daretotread – many hunter/gatherer and early societies had ‘third’ genders – people who did not identify fully as male or female, from Asia, to Africa, to North America to Mesopotamia – all over the world really, suggesting that gender has never been seen as completely biological as you suggest.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_gender

  15. I confess to being fairly intolerant of most transgender causes.

    I fully support the right of any adult to do what they wish with their body – if they want to have the surgeries and take the drugs that is entirely up to them, and they should be free to live their lives as they choose without suffering discrimination (*).

    But that is where I draw the line.

    Children should not, IMO, undergo gender reassignment. A child fully understanding what they are feeling and what is making them unhappy/discontent is a very tricky area and one where I don’t think the child themselves is capable of making such a weighty decision, and the decision certainly can’t be made for them by others.

    And the asterisk above is about some benchmark level of not-being-discriminated against – let’s say what of a white able-bodied heterosexual male would experience. Access to employment, services, etc, a reasonable expectation of being treated politely, tolerantly at all times.

    Having been born as a man and choosing to live life as a woman does not make you a woman. You don’t get to compete as a woman in the olympics. You don’t get to take roles that are reserved for women. The default situation should be where gender/biology doesn’t matter – men and women should be treated as equally as possible in as many things as possible, and of course that covers transgender people – but where we as a society deem that there is a point in discriminating based on biology – say sport or in representing the interests of women as a counter to historical or entrenched sexism and inequality – these carved-out areas of separate treatment are themselves special cases for special reasons and trying to demand that a trans woman must be treated in all respects as if she were a biologically determined woman is not appropriate (and I believe this is the Germaine Greer type of position, for which she received so much grief).

    Everyone should be able to expect to be treated with respect.

    That doesn’t mean that any individual gets to demand that they match certain criteria simply because they say they should.

  17. Morning all. Another poll confirms the status quo remains in election winning territory for the Liberals. Too many more and I will seriously fear an early election.

    This story is about Australia’s worsening international reputation for corruption. Between the Federal Liberals and former NSW Labor governments, we can hardly be surprised. Transparency and access to information is declining over time, while the ability of cash to access and influence ministers appears to be increasing. Joe Hockey’s case illustrates the point.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-27/australia-perceived-as-more-corrupt/7118632

    Despite the rhetoric, I see nothing in Turnbull’s actions to suggest this trend will change.

  18. Objection to even the lowest level of NBN speeds is not confined to Oz RWNJs.

    The most important thing missed, from stupidity or on purpose, is that households now have multiple devices connected to the wifi in the house – computers, mobile phones, and so on.

    From slashdot:

    [
    Broadband in the United States still lags behind similar service in other industrialized countries, so Congress made broadband expansion a national priority, and it offers subsidies, mostly in rural areas, to help providers expand their offerings,’ writes Bill Snyder. And that’s where an effort by the big ISPs and a group of senators to change the definition of broadband comes in. Of course, the ISPs want the threshold to be as low as possible so it’s easier for them to qualify for government subsidies. In a letter to FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, dated January 21, 2016, the senators called the current broadband benchmark of 25 Mbps downstream and 3 Mbps upstream ‘arbitrary’ and said that users don’t need that kind of speed anyway. ‘[W]e are aware of few applications that require download speeds of 25 Mbps.’ the senators wrote, missing the simple fact that many users have multiple connected devices. ]

    http://www.cio.com/article/3025921/consumer-electronics/why-6-republican-senators-think-you-dont-need-faster-broadband.html

    The basic speed mentioned in the article above, 25 Mbps downstream and 3 Mbps upstream, is about what I have, and it works well – for the moment, and there are times I would like greater capacities, mostly for uploads.

  20. My apologies for the sexism, but simply reassign the gender roles if it bothers you:

    [ The formal definition of broadband is this: A man’s wife and daughter can watch two different Netflix movies simultaneously, and he can still get work done. ]

  21. 15 Jackol) I agree with you on children with one caveat.

    They should be allowed to delay puberty to make it easier for transition later.

  23. From last thread and thanks Victoria for the heads up.

    Good Morning

    political_alert: Labor’s @AlboMP will announce his intention to nominate for preselection in the 2016 federal election, 10.40am, Sydney #auspol

    2712
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 28, 2016 at 8:10 am | PERMALINK
    On the transgender thing.

    I have a simple rule. Treat people as the gender they identify as. Even if its a drag queen on a stage.

    I do wonder on the genetic argument if we did genetic tests of every transgender person what their XY or as is true in some cases XXY or YYX results would be compared to what society told their parents what their gender was.

    There is still a lot of unresolved questions with transgender people.

    As for the attention seeking claims I say poppycock. No one chooses to be discriminated against. Also attention seeking is the last thing I call those brave enough to have their penis removed and turned into a vagina. Thats a conviction beyond any claims of attention seeking as men will tell you when they imagine the prospect of living life without a penis.

  24. $6BN sale Medibank $17Bn from Future Fund accounts. Debt rising even with $23Bn extra in coffers.

    Debt increases…its in the Liberal DNA

  26. MarkDiStef: So Anthony Albanese is making his pre-selection announcement this morning at a Balmain pub situated in the electorate of “Sydney”.

  27. harrytuckerr: Whoa, big news in the streaming world. @StanAustralia has signed a deal with Showtime. More details to come around 11.

    There goes a movie channel for Foxtel.

  28. Talking of gender and culture, one thing that interests me when interacting with transgender people (in this case, men who identify as women) is that they have no dress sense They wear clothes which are wildly inappropriate to the occasion (which is, in the cases I’m thinking about, what drew my attention to them).

    I’m only saying this because it made me realise how much of my culturalisation as a female was focussed on knowing what to wear and when to wear it.

    It’s even more intriguing, because they do seem to be more obsessed with clothes and appearance than the average woman, so you would think that that awareness would trump culture, but it doesn’t seem to.

    (I speak as a woman who isn’t actually very interested in clothes, fashion or appearance at all, and found the most annoying part of my involvement in public life was that I had to be).

  29. Sir Robert Menzies; “As the etymology of our name ‘Liberal’ indicates, we have stood for freedom. We have realised that men and women are not just ciphers in a calculation, but are individual human beings whose individual welfare and development must be the main concern of government….”

    Todays Liberals betraying the very foundations of their Party

  30. One of the better quote of 2016 so far anyway –

    [“That artist of yours is no good,” Mr Turnbull told Mr Hughes.

    “He’s made me look like a big, fat, greedy c–t.”

    Mr Hughes supposedly replied: “He is a realist painter you know.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/archibald-winner-lewis-miller-destroyed-malcolm-turnbull-portrait-after-future-pm-said-he-looked-big-fat-and-greedy-20160127-gmewho.html#ixzz3yU0ALKVQ

  31. TheMurdochTimes: .@RupertMurdoch’s NewsCorp is charging people to watch vid of a drunk sportsman in ‘lewd sex act with dog.’ Profiting from bestiality porn!

  32. We’ve had Netflix for a few months, but are going to cancel the service. It’s slow, very little of it is HD (for which you pay a few bucks extra), and the program choice is limited to point of atrocious.

    There are the odd cherries in the cake, on occasion, but in general, Netflix has been a flop in this household.

    Ironically, I cancelled a subscription to Stan for the same reasons, but with the additions and product development over time, we are seriously thinking of re-establishing it.

  34. BB

    I have both Netflix and Stan. The limitations on the Australian Netflix make you understand why they are using VPN to access the US site.

    With those two streaming services I have no need of Foxtel and am only paying $20 per month.

  38. I’ve been hammering Netflix non stop since I signed up many months ago. I have no problems at all with speed (I mostly use it on my PS4, but also use it on Apple TV and an Xbox One). My internet connection is good but not out of this world.

    I’ve been pleasantly surprised at the amount of stuff I’ve been able to watch. Just finished Season 1 of “Jessica Jones”, which was fantastic. “Making a Murderer” has been another highlight. “Narcos” and “Bloodline” were also great.

    I also use Stan, which is definitely improving. Especially now there is an app on my PS4.

  41. The Dawn Patrol from the previous thread.

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny tells us how Turnbull’s moderate image is beginning to fray.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbulls-moderate-vision-begins-to-fray-20160127-gmezdn.html
    Here we go. Sydney house prices have peaked and are now dropping. Is it a hiss from the bubble?
    http://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-house-prices-drop-3-per-cent-domain-group-20160127-gmd7pl/
    But Stephen Koukoulas tells us that waiting for the “crash” has cost Australians thousands.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/waiting-for-a-property-price-crash-cost-aussies-thousands.html
    Yet where we are it’s like a desert! Our dam has empties for the first time since we’ve been here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/severe-thunderstorms-to-cap-citys-wettest-january-in-28-years-20160126-gmeonz.html
    Same sex marriage reform is threatening Coalition unity. And serve them right!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-threatens-coalition-unity-20160127-gmf7j1.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bizarre-and-extraordinary-coalition-tensions-flare-over-samesex-marriage-20160126-gmeomf.html
    “View from the Street” has its say about the plebiscite. He also farewells Clive Palmer with a slow clap.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-so-we-dont-need-that-marriage-plebiscite-after-all-then-20160127-gmf5uk.html
    Is ATAR broken as the sole university entrance criterion?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/lets-end-the-atar-says-unsw-vc-ian-jacobs-20160127-gmerue.html
    For once I agree with Fox News!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-pulls-out-of-republican-debate-in-iowa-20160127-gmew36.html
    Bob Ellis reckons it’s a game changer for Trump.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2016/01/27/game-changer-2/

  42. Section 2 . . .

    The interview poor Jamie Briggs gave to my local rag gets some visibility in the MSM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jamie-briggs-says-he-paid-heavy-price-for-hong-kong-incident-20160127-gmfa0m.html
    The right wing rump is playing up. Now it’s Andrews off to the US to hang out with some conservative defence mob.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-andrews-skips-parliament-to-address-conservative-lobby-group-in-washington-on-defence-20160127-gmeyg6.html
    Abbott’s speaking engagements require our scrutiny and concern.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/27/tony-abbotts-speaking-engagements-deserve-our-scrutiny-and-our-concern
    Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott the fundamentalist preacher.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbott-fundamentalist-preacher,8613
    The man who beat Centrelink’s system.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/this-man-beat-centrelinks-system-and-he-says-you-can-too-20160127-gmet74.html
    Youth smoking rates are at a record low. Good!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/2016/01/28/youth-smoking-rates-record-low/
    The Anglican church is now under scrutiny at the Royal Commission.
    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/scales-of-justice/hobart-inquiry-to-examine-culture-of-sexual-abuse-against-boys/news-story/a7179cc623a907aca29200eab299fb04
    Michelle Grattan tells Morrison he cannot short change us by not having a taxation green paper.
    https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-a-taxation-green-paper-53743
    Meanwhile Tony Wright really takes the piss out of Abetz and his rump compatriots. The ridicule is starting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/eric-abetz-proposes-an-insurgency-on-behalf-of-the-flatearthers-20160127-gmeyo9.html
    Josephine Tovey rightly hops into Ted Cruz over his ridiculous claim about our gun laws and rape.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ted-cruz-stop-using-australian-rape-victims-to-get-yourself-elected-20160126-gmelkj.html

  43. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Now Clive Palmer’s nephew is in the sights of the Queensland Nickel administrator.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/clive-palmers-nephew-in-sights-of-queensland-nickel-administrators-20160127-gmerr9.html
    How well are new refugees setting into Australia?
    http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/how-well-are-new-refugees-settling-into-australia-20160127-gmes83.html
    The AMA says that public hospital funding will be the biggest problem for state governments.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/28/public-hospitals-biggest-financial-challenge-state-governments
    Elizabeth Farrelly asks whether our national identity is a matter for pride or shame.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/is-our-australian-identity-a-matter-for-pride-or-shame-20160127-gmesvw.html
    Apple’s clever accounting could conjure up a zero Australian tax bill for 2016. Surely there are ways that we can counter this. This arrogant mob needs to be taken down a peg or two.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/apples-clever-accounting-could-conjure-up-a-zero-tax-bill-in-2016-20160127-gmeub5.html
    Heath Aston reckons that Apple’s disclosure could be a defining moment for it and its fellow rorters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/apple-tax-disclosure-2016-will-be-a-defining-moment-for-ending-the-multinational-tax-rort-20160126-gmep7y.html
    Ron Tandberg and the right wing rump at work. Nice.

    Alan Moir with an unwelcome reminder for Turnbull.

    Great work from Pat Campbell on the rump and the plebiscite.

    Roy in the Herald Sun asks the obvious question.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/27caca85bfe6e05e9c39baeb481bd178?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5

  44. Finnigans 天有道地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans · 12m12 minutes ago
    Rupert Murdoch complaining Google not paying enough tax is like Ivan Milat complaining not enough is done for hitch hiking safety

  46. I just use Apple TV. I have not had a console since my PS2 carked it.

    By the time it did this it was obvious that gaming consoles were approaching use by date.

    So for me instead of spending $450 to $500 for a gaming console I spent $350 for the most expensive option.

    For those that don’t know what the Apple TV does and why I considered it worth the money for the hardware this is Apples promo video

    http://www.apple.com/au/tv/

  47. Color me surprised

    [Kieran Gilbert
    Kieran Gilbert – Verified account ‏@Kieran_Gilbert

    Aust Building Construction Commission legislation to be re-introduced next week, if blocked provides PM with another early election trigger
    1:07 PM – 27 Jan 2016
    12 RETWEETS]

  48. [CONTENDERS for this year’s Best New Talent trophy at the Logie Awards should watch out — Christopher Pyne could be hot on their heels.
    The colourful Liberal Minister has just landed his own weekly television show on Sky News, which he’ll host alongside Labor frontbencher Richard Marles.
    “I think I’m far too old to be considered new talent,” Pyne said.]

    Its going to be interesting to see Pyne explain and discuss Liberal policies. First topic could be “why workers will always be paid less under a Liberal Govt” Then there could be a discussion on “how many hospitals could be built if the multi-nationals paid taxes” or “how much more tax do people have to pay because the multi-nationals are not paying taxes”.

    Starting February 6, the half-hour Pyne & Marles program will see the opposing pollies debate hot issues of the week — with a healthy dose of humour worked into the mix, they promise.

    “If it’s just another political shouting match, then I don’t think people engage,” Pyne said. “I hope it’s friendly and accessible … while tackling the issues, with laughs along the way.”

  49. Thanks BK. Interesting from Mark Kenny. The first of the press gallery to start to match the rhetoric from Turnbull against the reality of his non-achievement.

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