Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The first Newspoll of the year records next to no change on voting intention, although Malcolm Turnbull has lost ground on preferred prime minister.

The Australian has brought us the first Newspoll result of the year, and it supports the trend of other polling in suggesting nothing much has changed over the new year break. The Coalition’s two-party lead remains at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (up one) and Greens 11% (down one). Bill Shorten has at least made up ground on preferred prime minister, which Malcolm Turnbull now leads 59-20, down from 60-14 in the last poll in December. The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation, with 37% in support. Stay tuned for Turnbull’s and Shorten’s personal ratings.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is on 53% approval and 31% disapproval, which is up a point on both counts since the last poll, while Shorten is up two to 25% and down one to 60%.

UPDATE 2: A second tranche of results from the poll finds 71% favouring an election late in the year compared with only 21% for an election in the first half of the year. Opinions on Tony Abbott’s future are finely balanced: 46% would have him remain in politics (26% on the front bench, 20% on the back bench), while 45% want him to bow out at the next election.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest two-week rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition lead back to 51-49 after its brief stay at 52-48 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Further results suggest a curious drop in support for a republic since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, with support down three since September to 36% and opposition up two to 31%. When specified that the change might occur at the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign, support goes up to 45%, with opposition at 29%. Fifty-six per cent think it likely that Australia will one day be a republic, compared with 24% unlikely. Despite this, there is broad opposition to changing the flag (33% support, 55% oppose), the national anthem (28% support, 54% oppose) and the date of Australia Day (23% support, 59% oppose).

A semi-regular question on trust in various media sources finds a slight across-the-board improvement since June last year, without disturbing the usual pattern of public broadcasting being viewed more favourably than the commercial media, and straight news being rated higher than opinion in its various forms. However, a question on individual newspapers finds opinions of The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald-Sun have improved, while the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Courier-Mail have not. This all but eliminates the gap between The Australian and the Fairfax titles, although the News Corp tabloids (particularly the Courier-Mail) continue to trail the pack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

  1. it is a matter for Sweden to decide.

    Well they decided to screw up their case. They made their bed. Now they have to lie in.

    You are incredibly naive and willfully obtuse in your assumption that this is a 100% legal process, no politics involved. If the Swedish Government actually wanted to deliver speedy justice in the interests of the complainants, they would have adjusted to the reality of Assange being given asylum in the embassy, and they would have done what has happened in other cases: sent a prosecutor to conduct interviews in another country. The fact that they didn’t do that shows that their main agenda was to please the United States, not to uphold the rights of the complainants. That was a contemptible failure on their part.

  2. Guytaur – what has the length of time that Assange has spent in the embassy got to do with his innocence or guilt? Seriously, if that is your argument then you must believe that Josef Mengele, Roman Polanski, Ronald Biggs and others are innocent too!! Ridiculous.

    Tom.

  3. [2339
    bemused
    I should have also mentioned intelligence gathering which is a key function and in fact relies on the good will of the community concerned.
    ]

    Absolutely agree, in which case, if the intelligence-gathering community had any brains, they’d be telling this Government to pull its head in (which I gather they sort of did to Abbott) if it seriously considers a proposal like Dutton’s.

    The function will remain with the police and other agencies as it does now and would under a change of government.

    ]

    That’s indisputable, but my concern is that right-wing authoritarians are always tempted to merge what should be independent intelligence-gathering and law-enforcement agencies with government departments in pursuit of untrammeled power.

    This is exactly what Dutton has attempted to do with Border Farce, using the boogeyman of “terrorism” as cover.

    These moves MUST be resisted if we are to be a truly free society.

  4. guytaur@2349

    bemused

    As usual you dismissing an upcoming danger because it has not been put before the house yet.

    Good thing you are not in charge of the ALP argument on the GST.

    Good thing for the LNP you mean?

    Quite right. I would smash them.

  5. Tom

    I said nothing about his guilt or innocence. I just noted that another commentator pointed out that was more than the sentence for the crime.

    That the length of stay was a matter of record and not a conspiracy theory.

  6. [Well they decided to screw up their case. They made their bed. Now they have to lie in.]

    Strikes me a little odd that Sweden have to lie in the bed they made, but Assange gets to avoid laying on any of the beds he has made. Such strong and consistent analytical work, amazing amazing stuff.

  7. bemuesed

    No you would be full of excuses because no decision had been made. Not even a draft document.

    Thats exactly what you are saying about this draft document leaked by Lateline.

  8. I think it’s becoming clear Turnbull will not go ahead with the GST. Bernardi said he will cross the floor, the backbencher’s are rumbling, and nothing paralyses Turnbull quite like a bunch of grumpy RWNJ’s. Ahhh the agility…

    (If I hold down the button for a bit when I post I don’t get the “posting too quickly” – seriously)

  9. [I just noted that another commentator pointed out that was more than the sentence for the crime.]

    He is living the high life in a sexy embassy (remember all the wikileaks about the evils of the whole embassy scene) not serving a sentence for his alleged crimes.

  10. So gaytaur, I’ve said the working group on arbitrary detention, although nothing like the court you keep calling it, seems to be a body made up of very impressive people. Can you provide me a link to their findings so I can consider them please?

  11. guytaur@2358

    bemuesed

    No you would be full of excuses because no decision had been made. Not even a draft document.

    Thats exactly what you are saying about this draft document leaked by Lateline.

    Oh the Lateline document is certainly good fodder for questions in Parliament, but I doubt much will come of it.

  12. The only material that Wikileaks was truly “justified” in leaking was the Iraq Hhliocopter airstrike footage:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_12,_2007_Baghdad_airstrike

    Everything else leaked was just vindictive and pointless, and damaged the ability of nations to conduct honest diplomacy.

    Snowden, whatever you may think of him, did a much better job by being highly selective about his materials and only leaking information that the public was previously unaware of but needed to know.

    Assange should face justice in Sweden on Sweden’s terms, but I do find it interesting that Sweden always refused to guarantee that they would not extradite him to the US.

  13. Strikes me a little odd that Sweden have to lie in the bed they made, but Assange gets to avoid laying on any of the beds he has made.

    Since when is it the defendant’s job to help the prosecution? He was entitled to claim asylum and got it. The ball was then in Sweden’s court. They failed to adjust.

    Sweden could have given the interests of criminal justice priority but they decided to put geopolitical considerations first. That was a gamble on their part. They lost. That’s their problem.

  14. [It was strange then and no doubt it will get stranger. The legal system moves slowly; I suspect this is the unravelling; fortunately for Assange; wewantpaul didn’t get to hang him.]

    Don’t be absurd, I wouldn’t have hanged him, I’d have just put him on a plane to Washington and watched how the US legal system deals with dangerous self obsessed morons.

  15. bemused

    Its only public outcry that will stop the LNP plans. We know they are plans because they put it in a draft document.

    So I hope you are right the alternative is the start of racist based fascism.

  16. [
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    It was strange then and no doubt it will get stranger. The legal system moves slowly; I suspect this is the unravelling; fortunately for Assange; wewantpaul didn’t get to hang him.

    Don’t be absurd, I wouldn’t have hanged him, I’d have just put him on a plane to Washington and watched how the US legal system deals with dangerous self obsessed morons.
    ]
    So your wanted the US to do the hanging.

  17. So, with that crap from Dutton out its obvious that the Libs want to take a multi pronged approach to election 2016. Debt and Deficit AND keep the sceer up on “BOATS BOOOOOO!”.

    Oh my doG!! Refugees are Terrorists!!! Be Alert AND Alarmed!!!!

    The Libs are scum and those who vote for them morons.

  18. [Since when is it the defendant’s job to help the prosecution? He was entitled to claim asylum and got it. The ball was then in Sweden’s court. They failed to adjust.]

    So his alleged crimes against women in Sweden don’t matter.
    So his undertakings to the UK justice system and to those stupid enough to post the bail for this disgusting dishonest scum don’t matter at all.
    The ridiculous well known corruption of Ecuador doesn’t matter, they are now world leading determinants of fairness and justice.

    i don’t see how Sweden could possibly gain by giving into the dishonest, criminal, extortion of this scum accused of sex offences. It would be better to negotiate with terrorists than to give into the demands of every paranoid accused sex offender.

  19. [So your wanted the US to do the hanging.]

    I would have preferred an unlawful extra-judicial trip to Guantanamo for Assange, but hanging after a fair trail finds he did commit a capital crime against our beloved ally the US is almost as good.

  20. [2376
    WeWantPaul
    but hanging after a fair trail finds he did commit a capital crime against our beloved ally the US is almost as good.
    ]

    Very droll.

  21. I can’t link it but I was sent a photo of the Wheel of Fortune set.

    Rod Marsh is the contestant and has to guess the name with the clue being “Australian batsman who has made heaps of runs this summer”.

    The board has USM_N KH_W_J_

    Rod looks blankly at the board and says “Can I buy a vowel, please?”

  22. Roman Polanski?

    Another name to add to my Ant List. As in, if I was driving, and saw him passed out by the side of the road, covered in ants, I would stop, walk over, throw a packet of sugar over him and drive off, without a second thought.

  23. Love it Diog.

    That blank look he gave when asked why Usman wasn’t picked was priceless… “because I couldn’t make the call”… he may has well have said “because this is supposed to be a cushy job”.

  24. The world’s biggest military-industrial complex is after Assange. The Swedish allegations were and are very handy for them. On the whole I think we are better off for having had some light shone into the deepest darkest corners of governments. Future historians will love him for it. Looks odds on now that he’ll disappear into some US facility somewhere. One way or another he has dug his own grave by taking them on so brazenly.

  25. [Paul Kelly says the PM wants to know specifics of what a GST increase would do before committing

    Turnbull is a paradigm of Leadership.

    So he should just do it with no idea of the effects?]

    The specific effects Turnbull wants to know is how many seats will they lose. He’s gutless against anyone who can hit him back. The first whiff of grapeshot and he’s looking for a way to back down.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *