Morgan state polling: January-February 2016

The latest state polling from Morgan finds the Coalition ascendant everywhere except Victoria, and the Nick Xenophon Team polling strongly in South Australia.

Roy Morgan has published its almost-monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, which find that:

• The Coalition’s lead in New South Wales is at 59.5-40.5, down from 60.5-39.5 in December.

• Labor’s lead in Victoria is unchanged at 53.5-46.5.

• The Liberal National Party opposition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Queensland, after trailing 51.5-48.5 last time.

• The Liberal-National government now has a 54.5-45.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 50.5-49.5 last time. This is at odds with the recent Newspoll result for October-December, showing Labor leading 53-47.

• The Nick Xenophon Team is on 20.5% of the primary vote in South Australia, with Labor on 27% and the Liberals on 35.5%. The Liberals have a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 last time.

• In Tasmania, the Liberals are on 43% (down 1.5%), Labor is on 30.5% (up 5%) and the Greens are on 21.5% (down 3.5%).

Polling was conducted from Friday to Monday, from samples ranging from 358 in Tasmania to 1292 in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

17 comments on “Morgan state polling: January-February 2016”

  1. The SA and WA results seem the most suspicious to me, considering Newspoll contradicted them both (by pretty large margins).

    Rob Pyne and the instability in the QLD government over the past week (which has since died down) could be why the Queensland TPP is what it is, but I think people will return to Palaszczuk

  2. WA numbers must be suspect. We have gone through all the years of Liberal lies and broken election promises. I would be disappointed if my fellow Sandgropers would vote these liars and charlatans into another term

  3. SUSC, 2

    Comparing Morgan to Newspoll (and the last Morgan, to which there was a 5% drop) shows, I think, that that polling isn’t entirely reliable. Besides, despite incumbency bias, McGowan is leading the preferred premier stakes. So, either some really rogue polling is happening (probably this), or voters are hedging their bets that Barnett will be thrown out before the 2017 election.

    Either way I think you and the ALP will do just fine (or at worst better than 2013)

  4. Queensland polling might be suspect too. Remember there was only just talk in January that Springborg would be facing a potential challenge to his leadership in February/March.

  5. David, 4

    Queensland polling is less so suspect and more so very affected by Rob Pyne, which will go away (and seems to have already stopped being an issue), so polling will resume its regular 50.5%-51% ALP TPP

  6. I was robopolled about the Brisbane City Council a few hours ago. (And I answered gleefully – I don’t know why robopolls spook people so much.) At the end the robovoice said “If you have any questions about this poll, visit Mediareach at”. So I tried, and the address is being minded by a domain name wholesaler at the moment, and on googling Mediareach I find they’re a UK company with no apparent Ozzie branch. So are they expanding into Oz but just haven’t got the website up and running yet, or is someone else running a poll using their name? Anybody know anything? Anybody else been polled by them?

  7. While I do not question the poll figures in WA, the vibe I get from around and about in Sandgropia is not an election figure, which if reflected in this poll, verges on as bad as it was for Labor last time around.

    Not a day goes by and the current LNP outfit hits another bump.

    While the last Federal by-election saw Labor voters come back to the fold, what with the mining boom down turn, and the apparent tiredness of the 8 year old government, I suspect that Labor is doing better in reality.

    Whether well enough yet, to win an election, who knows?

    However, with a Federal poll due before the State one, and the Federal government yet to bite many bullets, I would think Labor should be encouraged – though again, it will be a tough gig in WA for whoever is in office in the coming 4 years.

  8. Re the WA downturn, the influx of workers into the state has definitely abated. The awarding to WA of a new Fed seat (at the expense of NSW) may be ephemeral.

  9. NSW LNP will be worried – apparently.

    Nice numbers in WA.

    With the SA gerrymander I doubt the LNP could win even with those numbers.

  10. It’s not a gerrymander, of course. The last time SA had a gerrymander, the Libs stayed in office for three decades.

    What we have seen in recent years is a wastage of Liberal votes in ultra-safe country electorates and superior Labor campaigning in marginal city seats.

    Next time the boundaries commission will over-compensate the Libs to such an extent that Labor will very likely be wiped out as a political forces for years to come.

  11. I’m wondering if the improved WA numbers have anything to do with the largely positive reception with regard to the opening of Elizabeth Quay.

  12. Neither CC’s or TT’s cases are actually a gerrymander.

    CC’s example is just crappy campaigning from the state opposition (in fact, if you want to be technical, the gerrymandering that does exist is favouring them and will do so more at the next election!)

    TT’s is malapportionment – which is not the same as gerrymandering.

  13. Rewi, it depends on your definition of useful. In particular, it depends on whether you think these Morgan SMS polls are of any value at all, given they’re the most regular source of results from WA in particular. I could do something pretty useful for Queensland, where you get ReachTELs and Galaxys as well as Newspolls and Morgans. Not WA though.

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