Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, as respondents say yes to Australia Day and no to increased military involvement in the Middle East.

I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.

Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. JIMMY – I’ve never seen any signs that Turnbull is not a rampant free-marketeer. All he wants to do (like all merchant bankers) is privatise (fees, fees, fees) and drive down wages. He’s leftish on a few cuddly social issues, but that’s it.
    I also find it revolting that someone as rich as him can be so servile when dealing with people in his party. You’d think he’d have more self-respect. It’s not as if he’s got a mortgage to pay. Evidently not.

  2. CTaR1

    Yep. Bit like putting a bull’s eye on the target. You would think they could up with something less noticeable to put the bad guys off the scent… like a clapped out Morris Minor.

  3. JimmyDoyle@1631

    1628
    davidwh
    the current opinion polls may simply reflect the people generally don’t see government and politics through the PB filter.


    That may be true, but the public does not have unlimited faith in Turnbull. After all, Turnbull has Rudd-esque approval ratings, but the LNP can only manage 54-45 on the bludgertrack.

    I would not place any faith in this. For 54:46 the expected PM netsat is around +30 (or vice versa). Turnbull is +40 in Bludgertrack but was significantly lower than this in the last Newspoll last year and also in Essential. So as discrepancies go there is really not a lot to see anymore.

  4. Bw – That the car near JG’s apartment was a marked one I always found ‘strange’. The two coppers should have had the radar out and collected some revenue but they just sat on their arses in the car from what I could see.

  5. BK:

    I’ve got a theory that whenever they mic up one of the batsmen and chat with them, they inevitably get out quick.

  6. And the homeless guy got what from his meeting with Malcolm the Magnificent? Bupkis.

    I really am going to go crazy by the time the election rolls around if we have to endure an endless array of photo ops of ‘Malcolm, Man of the People’.

    Btw, did you see the tizzy little number Lucy Turnbull was wearing to show the hoi polloi watching their 6PM News bulletin around The Lodge? Like a refugee from an Off Broadway production of ‘Cabaret’!

  9. Sorry, bemused, I tried doing the Google search but there were so many, it just became confusing. We know that people will use drugs to try and cope with the evolving symptoms of significant psychiatric disorder and we also know that some mind altering drugs, such a meth, are absolute sods for inducing psychotic states.

    The interactions are not precise, nor the mechanisms.

    Don’t know that I can add anything other and am just about to go off to dinner. I’ll try and catch up tomorrow.

  10. C@t

    And Lucy saying “they’d found a way to recycle some original furniture”. ‘They’ should patent the idea.

    People who do french polishing and upholstery may be a little surprised.

  12. [And Lucy saying “they’d found a way to recycle some original furniture”. ]

    Meh. An attempt to paint themselves as ‘Every People’. Kind of like wearing an akubra and moleskins when you visit non metro areas.

  13. Monica Lynagh@1659

    Sorry, bemused, I tried doing the Google search but there were so many, it just became confusing. We know that people will use drugs to try and cope with the evolving symptoms of significant psychiatric disorder and we also know that some mind altering drugs, such a meth, are absolute sods for inducing psychotic states.

    The interactions are not precise, nor the mechanisms.

    Don’t know that I can add anything other and am just about to go off to dinner. I’ll try and catch up tomorrow.

    It will come up top of the list.

  14. confessions
    [
    Meh. An attempt to paint themselves as ‘Every People’. Kind of like wearing an akubra and moleskins when you visit non metro areas.]
    It was one of my great :lol:s from the Howard era. He and the Hammock Dweller out “bush” wearing such gear with “straight from the packet” creases still showing. They looked so natural NOT.

  15. [1651
    Kevin17
    I’ve never seen any signs that Turnbull is not a rampant free-marketeer. All he wants to do (like all merchant bankers) is privatise (fees, fees, fees) and drive down wages.    ]

    Spot on.

    He’s leftish on a few cuddly social issues, but that’s it.

    Unless, of course, those “principles” become inconvenient to his ambitions, in which case, they are utterly expendable.

  17. [JimmyDoyle@1631

    That may be true, but the public does not have unlimited faith in Turnbull. After all, Turnbull has Rudd-esque approval ratings, but the LNP can only manage 54-45 on the bludgertrack.]

    Fifty-four is still a very good win. Well above the average.

  18. [1653
    Kevin Bonham
    So as discrepancies go there is really not a lot to see anymore    ]

    Fair enough. But surely the discrepancy between Turnbull’s PPM ratings and the LNP’s polling numbers is of note? (notwithstanding that Prime Ministers are usually always ahead in PPM ratings)

  20. poroti:

    It’s very patronising too. Like we country folk might flee in horror at the sight of a Jimmy Choo slingback or Prada suit.

  21. Just Me – Sure, but at this point in time I don’t think Turnbull has a prayer of a chance of replicating that result at an actual election.

  22. KEVIN – Is there some sort of calculation of the percentage likelihood that Bludger-tracker is right or one of the extreme polls is right (e.g. 57-43 or 52-48). I would have thought that the more extreme the polls, the less reliance can be placed on bludger-tracker? But then again, I still don’t understand what Bayes’ Theorem is.

  23. [1621
    Monica Lynagh

    Just Me,

    Some one here has previously commented that Turnbull thinks like a barrister, i.e., here’s your brief, now go and find the arguments to support the case, which I think is probably close to the mark. It certainly doesn’t include the sort of mindset you need to bring people along with you. ]

    Agreed. Something Turnbull does not seem to have mastered yet, and he only has a few months at most to do so.

    (Yeah, I know his current ratings, but he has not had to sell any hard decisions yet.

    For example: If what Pyne said is true and all the Gonski money is going to private schools, then I doubt even Howard could sell that one. Turnbull and the current Libs will have no hope of doing it.)

  24. [ The difference between me and most here is I haven’t given up on Turnbull already. ]

    davidwh, given his complete lack of policy substance over his whole political career (what has he actually done besides fwark the NBN…oh..and rainmaking…) and the farce that was his time as LOTO, i hadn’t pinned any hopes on him to be given up on??

  26. Kevin Bonham @ 1644,

    ‘ If anyone has Sky, Chris Kenny’s tweeted that there will be a Newspoll preview on Viewpoint which starts at 8pm.’

    Any news from Corporate Newsland?

  31. Victoria – I’ve gotta say, I thought Weatherill was pretty good until he came up with the GST/Gonski crap. Now they should feet him to the sharks off Port Lincoln.

  36. Fess

    [Sky News Australia retweeted
    Chris Kenny
    2h2 hours ago
    Chris Kenny ‏@chriskkenny
    Bumper #Viewpoint 8pm with @SenatorCash @ConroyMO @mirandadevine @jkalbrechtsen + sneak peek @ #Newspoll #auspol @SkyNewsAust]

  37. confessions

    [Like we country folk might flee in horror at the sight of a Jimmy Choo slingback or Prada suit.]
    Dare say youse would if confronted with Howard and Costello in Jimmy Choo sling backs :LOL:

  39. victoria @ 1677: What is it about Labor premiers that so many of them seem to want to help the other side? We had about three in a row in NSW who were the best assets the State Liberals ever had.

  41. victoria
    [Chris Kenny
    2h2 hours ago
    Chris Kenny ‏@chriskkenny
    Bumper #Viewpoint 8pm with @SenatorCash @ConroyMO @mirandadevine @jkalbrechtsen +]
    Jeebus, Planet Janet the Divine Miranda and Chris Kenny together Lib shills overdose or what ! ?

  42. poroti:

    lol that thought did occur to me after I’d pressed post. 😀

    shellbell:

    He still has to bowl yet. Plenty of time to show that trademark choker.

  43. Just looked at the clip on twitter of the Chris Kenny report.

    Takeaways:

    No change on the party polling.

    Bill Shorten’s ratings are above the nadir he reached at the end of last year.

    More than half of the respondents were against an increase in the GST.

  47. It will take a week or two for Turnbull’s bad week to sink in; further, a lot of people will be out there waiting for him to pull a rabbit from his hat – which won’t happen.

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