The Australian has brought us the first Newspoll result of the year, and it supports the trend of other polling in suggesting nothing much has changed over the new year break. The Coalition’s two-party lead remains at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (up one) and Greens 11% (down one). Bill Shorten has at least made up ground on preferred prime minister, which Malcolm Turnbull now leads 59-20, down from 60-14 in the last poll in December. The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation, with 37% in support. Stay tuned for Turnbull’s and Shorten’s personal ratings.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is on 53% approval and 31% disapproval, which is up a point on both counts since the last poll, while Shorten is up two to 25% and down one to 60%.
UPDATE 2: A second tranche of results from the poll finds 71% favouring an election late in the year compared with only 21% for an election in the first half of the year. Opinions on Tony Abbott’s future are finely balanced: 46% would have him remain in politics (26% on the front bench, 20% on the back bench), while 45% want him to bow out at the next election.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest two-week rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition lead back to 51-49 after its brief stay at 52-48 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Further results suggest a curious drop in support for a republic since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, with support down three since September to 36% and opposition up two to 31%. When specified that the change might occur at the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign, support goes up to 45%, with opposition at 29%. Fifty-six per cent think it likely that Australia will one day be a republic, compared with 24% unlikely. Despite this, there is broad opposition to changing the flag (33% support, 55% oppose), the national anthem (28% support, 54% oppose) and the date of Australia Day (23% support, 59% oppose).
A semi-regular question on trust in various media sources finds a slight across-the-board improvement since June last year, without disturbing the usual pattern of public broadcasting being viewed more favourably than the commercial media, and straight news being rated higher than opinion in its various forms. However, a question on individual newspapers finds opinions of The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald-Sun have improved, while the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Courier-Mail have not. This all but eliminates the gap between The Australian and the Fairfax titles, although the News Corp tabloids (particularly the Courier-Mail) continue to trail the pack.
Crank at 1947
[Note to everyone – TPOF has got out of the wrong side of bed this morning.]
Proves my point perfectly.
Compact Crank@1942
Well I would not be surprised if that’s where you lot saw Australia’s future.
Millenial @1945 – glad you asked:
Extend GST at 10% to 100% of the tax base along with a significant rejigging of the State and Federal expenditures on Health and Education.
Flat Rate Income Tax matched with equal Company Tax rate at 20%.
Get rid of the Senate and the States and have regional governments.
Crank at 1953
You forgot to mention a return to Feudalism, which is the end point of the changes you propose.
Buggy whips still have a market. You buy them in a particular speciality shop. Or so I have heard.
Bemused @1952 Low Carbon Emission Economy will require Buggies. Who doesn’t like a buggy ride?
[ Compact Crank
Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 1:40 pm | Permalink
…
Why take the political pain to support ALP spending policies?
]
Cutting spending back to ALP levels would be a good start to balancing the budget.
Compact Crank@1956
Nonsense.
The sort of phobia the LNP suffers from and attempts to spread.
I’m confused that anyone could question the green’s pro growth credentials.
The greens are about education – expense now for growth over years-decades.
The greens are about investing in preventing climate change, which if left unchecked will cripple economies in decades time.
The greens are about promoting sustainable economic development. When we have run out of stuff to dig out of the ground and sell to China, we had better hope we’ve laid the groundwork to have industries that can keep going. This is growth over the years-decades ahead.
By contrast, the right’s focus on growth between now and the next election is laughably shortsighted.
When you are making such non conventional claims, it is best to justify WHY you say what you do – you can’t just claim that the Greens are anti growth without justifying this.
Please, Chris, lose that dreadful scruffy beard.
Bernard Keane’s anodyne centrism won’t solve this problem. His assumptions about the nature of the problem are just as flawed as those of the disingenuous people he claims to be separate from.
He assumes that it is morally better for large numbers of persecuted people to be killed, raped or tortured out of our sight in their home countries than for a much smaller number of them to die at sea while trying to escape.
He assumes that Australia faces overwhelming, unmanageable numbers of unauthorised maritime arrivals, and that offshore detention therefore serves a necessary and justified deterrent role.
Both of those assumptions are spectacularly flawed. Bernard Keane would be better served by interrogating those two assumptions than by espousing centrism for centrism’s sake. Being at the centre of a heavily skewed, deeply misguided national approach to asylum-seekers doesn’t make you right. Focus on what’s most likely to be right rather than where you sit relative to others.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/02/04/govt-has-mangled-its-moral-calculus-on-asylum-seekers/
Folks stay away from Nicholas for a while. I just saw BKeane sticking pins in a little green doll.
You gotta laugh
[Adam Gartrell
Adam Gartrell – Verified account @adamgartrell
The gun-toting, gay marriage-opposing Nationals senator… who actually lives in inner Melbourne http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-guntoting-gay-marriageopposing-nationals-senatorwho-lives-in-the-inner-city-20160203-gml8ic.html … via @jamesmassola]
Waleed Ally needs to contact the Border Force Propaganda unit as a matter of urgency.
[Ultimately, this whole issue exists in a world of make-believe: make-believe borders, make-believe compliance with the refugee convention, and make-believe resettlement policy. Among all the moral injuries we’ve inflicted on ourselves in this sordid area of politics – and there are many – the most overlooked is how adept we’ve become at lying to ourselves.
One day, when the history of this period is written, it will be a story of how successive governments have legislated their lies. How John Howard, then Julia Gillard made real their pretence that boat arrivals never got here, so we could be good international citizens yet still owe these people nothing. How Tony Abbott passed a law in June last year to ensure Rudd’s Nauru arrangement was legal, and how that law pretended it had been in force ever since 2012]
Germany has a low home ownership rate compared to us, and much, much better housing affordability than us. We’ve been so focused on organizing the housing market to deliver windfall capital gains that we’ve lost sight of its chief purpose: to house people.
http://qz.com/167887/germany-has-one-of-the-worlds-lowest-homeownership-rates/?utm_source=atlfb
don
[In this case, you appear to assume, and the antivaxxers are assuming, a zero risk if their children are not vaccinated. This is false, as unvaccinated carriers coming in contact with their children are a distinctly non-zero possibility. ]
There is no assumption in a Prisoner’s Dilemma that choosing to defect carries zero risk, whether the partner defects or doesn’t defect.
Yep in a nutshell
[Jonathan Green
Jonathan Green – Verified account @GreenJ
the point with offshore detention: it’s bipartisan, politically sanctioned. not the responsibility of politcs, but all of us. our doing.]
Since 2001 the only PM who tried to take a humane approach to UA’s was Rudd and it ended up costing him dearly in terms of political capital. We can’t really blame the politicians because it is all of us, or a great many of us, who don’t want to see people arrive here unless they are invited first.
Where would we be now if the Original Australians had the capacity to implement that policy?
Bandt asking Turnbull about kiddies in detention. I’ve got no particular problem with his answer, but will all those Greens and other luvvies who think Malcolm is a bit of alright (and so maybe thinking to pref the Libs) think so?
davidwh
[Where would we be now if the Original Australians had the capacity to implement that policy?]
Great comment we wouldn’t be here at all!
[Lenore Taylor
Lenore Taylor – Verified account @lenoretaylor
No ‘coherent argument’ has been made for GST rise, says veteran Liberal MP http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/04/no-coherent-argument-has-been-made-for-gst-rise-says-veteran-liberal-mp?CMP=share_btn_tw … #auspol]
[Where would we be now if the Original Australians had the capacity to implement that policy?]
Of the many ironies surrounding this issue, this is probably the greatest.
My wife used to have a t-shirt with a picture of the first fleet, and the words Boat People across it. Just about sums it up.
ratsak
Turnbull is Abbott with a better suit and less flags. 😀
davidwh@1968
Despite your protestations to the contrary, I think your good mum must have finally got through to you. No-one on the right thinks like that.
yes. Let’s make the same arguments as 250 years ago, when it took years to get anywhere in a boat. So childish and stupid
victoria@1971
Yes, Russelll Broadbent was saying the same on the PB despised RN Breakfast this morning.
[ victoria
Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 2:30 pm | Permalink
ratsak
Turnbull is Abbott with a better suit and less flags.
]
He reminds me a tyre with a slow leak – no instantaneous blowout – just a gradual day by day waffly hot air deflating ……
daretotread@1930
Thanks DTT. I didn’t know about that one.
In the back of my mind I think I remember a story about a child care centre for anti-vaxx parents which had an epidemic of measles or whooping cough (or similar) sweep through it, within the last year or so, but I have been unable to find any reference to it.
I reluctantly agreed with offshore processing only because the number of people perishing at sea had reached serious numbers. However it is now obvious we are incapable of providing proper living conditions and there is absolutely no exit strategies for these people.
Personally I can’t agree with any policy that keeps people in detention for the amount of time these people are being held and without any logical path to a proper life.
It’s just not right.
posting too @#$%^&*() quickly again.
May the gerbils rot, slowly from the arsehole out.
Waleed Ally – the guy who thinks terrorism is just a minor nuisance.
david @1968 – speaking French and there’d probably be a lot less Aboriginals in Australia today.
davidwh@1979
Of course you are assuming that none are perishing now, either before being turned back or after they have been turned back.
With the cloak of silence that has been laid down, we simply do not know. But I suspect there are.
Scott Bales
[I’m confused that anyone could question the green’s pro growth credentials.]
You are kidding, right?
Policy after policy is about stopping various bits of economic activity straight away while the Greens form various open-ended processes, committees, studies and reviews.
Nicholas@1961: “He assumes that it is morally better for large numbers of persecuted people to be killed, raped or tortured out of our sight in their home countries than for a much smaller number of them to die at sea while trying to escape.”
Won’t most persecuted people around the world continue to be killed, raped or tortured in their home countries regardless of how many boat people we take here?
“He assumes that Australia faces overwhelming, unmanageable numbers of unauthorised maritime arrivals, and that offshore detention therefore serves a necessary and justified deterrent role.”
Unauthorised boat arrivals in the seven years 1996-2001 (ie, before the Pacific Solution): 13,375
Unauthorised boat arrivals in the six years 2002-2007 (ie, after the Pacific Solution was introduced): 288
Unauthorised boat arrivals in the six years 2008-2013 (ie, Rudd-Gillard Rudd, after the decision was made to get rid of the Pacific Solution): 51,798
Unauthorised boat arrivals 1 Jan 2014-1 July 2015: 158
I can’t get hold of statistics since that time, but I believe only one boat has arrived.
I’ve added the latest BludgerTrack update to the sidebar, and will put up a new post to go with it this evening. I expect that I’ll be back to following a neat and tidy schedule on this next week.
Compact Crank@1981
How many deaths in Australia from terrorism and how many suicide? You cited the statistic earlier so don’t squib it.
I am more concerned about the prospect of being struck by lightning.
[Of course you are assuming that none are perishing now]
Comrade no I’m not but even if they aren’t perishing in the Indian Ocean thousands are perishing elsewhere. The geography may have changed but the results haven’t.
I always have a good giggle at the hypocrisy of all those who call current non-Aboriginals in Australia “invaders” but still live here themselves despite themselves being non-Aboriginal.
What has European settlement done for Aboriginals? Who wouldn’t prefer living a stone-age existence? Post your answers using electricity and your computer or device on the internet now!
Why aren’t I surprise that Lenore Taylor should be sucked in by the leftist meme that inequality is bad and reducing it will “spur” economic growth. She’s so earnest it almost leaks out of her.
Compact Crank@1990
It is a proven fact.
david @1979 – so what’s your solution?
[I’ve added the latest BludgerTrack update to the sidebar, and will put up a new post to go with it this evening. I expect that I’ll be back to following a neat and tidy schedule on this next week.]
Thank’s William @1986. Interesting to note that despite Turnbull’s honeymoon, the LNP are only 1 seat up on the last election. Someone was commenting here recently that sooner or later ALP members would put self interest first and dump Shorten to preserve their seats.
Turnbull may well be favorite to win the election, but it is very doubtful the LNP will gain seats.
[ Compact Crank
Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 2:39 pm | Permalink
david @1968 – speaking French and there’d probably be a lot less Aboriginals in Australia today.
]
Fair crack of the whip – we can’t blame the French for everything – ‘some’ organizations under the British flag tried their best to reduce the Indigenous Australian numbers
List of massacres of Indigenous Australians
The concepts of invasion, frontier wars and massacres, although frequently mentioned and debated in the early Australian legislatures, has become a highly contentious issues in modern Australia
In total at least 20,000 indigenous Australians died from conflict and massacre with white Australians whilst between 2,000 and 2,500 white Australians died.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_of_Indigenous_Australians
Humans have been migrating and invading for various reasons for 100,000 years and the present is a small snapshot of that history. I expect migrations and invasions will continue well into the future. Current cultures and borders will eventually be found in history’s pages.
Assuming some event or bug doesn’t get us in the meantime.
[It is a proven fact.]
Yep, the period of US ascendancy wage inequality was low. In recent times the rent seekers have taken over.
I like the inflection point now clearly showing in Turnbull’s sat and PPM numbers. It obviously is a looooooong way from hurting his re-election chances, but one to keep an eye on.
davidwh@1995
Apart from border disputes, I think the age of invasion and conquest is just about over.
bemused @1987
Us – 3
Them – 3 and about +20 or so in jail on various terrorism offences and about +100 overseas with ISIS – all of whom would love to be able to kill thousands of us if they got the chance.
It goes to what is an acceptable risk – I am more than happy to take the risk of riding in a car or swimming in the ocean – they are risks I choose to take.
I do not accept, and nor does the majority of the public, accept that we should be at risk from terrorists.
CC #1992 while people are desperate enough to risk their lives to find a better place to live I doubt there are ideal solutions. We in Australia can only deal with what comes our way and deal with that in a humane way. Leaving people in Manus and Naru for long periods of time without any logical exit strategy is just not the best solution in my opinion.
If the facilities were humane and if the people held there had some final humane resolution I could tolerate offshore processing but what we are doing now isn’t right in my opinion.