The Australian has brought us the first Newspoll result of the year, and it supports the trend of other polling in suggesting nothing much has changed over the new year break. The Coalition’s two-party lead remains at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (up one) and Greens 11% (down one). Bill Shorten has at least made up ground on preferred prime minister, which Malcolm Turnbull now leads 59-20, down from 60-14 in the last poll in December. The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation, with 37% in support. Stay tuned for Turnbull’s and Shorten’s personal ratings.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is on 53% approval and 31% disapproval, which is up a point on both counts since the last poll, while Shorten is up two to 25% and down one to 60%.
UPDATE 2: A second tranche of results from the poll finds 71% favouring an election late in the year compared with only 21% for an election in the first half of the year. Opinions on Tony Abbott’s future are finely balanced: 46% would have him remain in politics (26% on the front bench, 20% on the back bench), while 45% want him to bow out at the next election.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest two-week rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition lead back to 51-49 after its brief stay at 52-48 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Further results suggest a curious drop in support for a republic since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, with support down three since September to 36% and opposition up two to 31%. When specified that the change might occur at the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign, support goes up to 45%, with opposition at 29%. Fifty-six per cent think it likely that Australia will one day be a republic, compared with 24% unlikely. Despite this, there is broad opposition to changing the flag (33% support, 55% oppose), the national anthem (28% support, 54% oppose) and the date of Australia Day (23% support, 59% oppose).
A semi-regular question on trust in various media sources finds a slight across-the-board improvement since June last year, without disturbing the usual pattern of public broadcasting being viewed more favourably than the commercial media, and straight news being rated higher than opinion in its various forms. However, a question on individual newspapers finds opinions of The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald-Sun have improved, while the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Courier-Mail have not. This all but eliminates the gap between The Australian and the Fairfax titles, although the News Corp tabloids (particularly the Courier-Mail) continue to trail the pack.
[a place in which large numbers of people, especially political prisoners or members of persecuted minorities, are deliberately imprisoned in a relatively small area with inadequate facilities, sometimes to provide forced labour or to await mass execution. ]
That definition certainly wouldn’t describe Naru regardless of how bad Naru may be.
frednk
[If you don’t want to accept the outcome then perhaps it would be better to not to play the politics.]
So we shouldn’t advocate for effective policy, only compromise.
Sorry, but the game of doublespeak as practised by the Coalition, and to some extent by Labor, is not going to cut it in a time of rapid change.
Both Coalition and Labor are rooted in the past and vested interest. The Coalition supports the balance sheets of existing big business at the expense of innovation, while Labor represents existing jobs at the expense of future ones.
It is ironic that the Greens focus on renewable technology and addressing inequity and resourcing environmental science and management is far more pro growth than the two major parties.
[
guytaur
Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 1:03 pm | Permalink
fednk
Your whole thesis is blame the Greens for the LNP actions.
Facts are facts. LNP voted the ETS out of existence not Labor, not Greens.
]
So happy to play politics, but are not happy to accept the consequences.
Ah what is supposed to happen?
[David Speers
David Speers – Verified account @David_Speers
In Sydney for a conversation with @mikebairdMP airing on #SpeersTonight at 8pm. He’s stuck his neck out on the GST…what happens now?
5:16 PM – 3 Feb 2016
3 RETWEETS2 LIKES]
PS
And – as has been well reported here already – Coalition cuts look like completely eliminating CSIRO environmental data collection.
What a fucking joke.
I guess it is off to the senate now.
[Sky News Australia
Sky News Australia – Verified account @SkyNewsAust
The bill to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission has passed the House of Representatives #auspol]
MTBW@1900
Actually he was repeating what some “nasty hateful” people in the ALP said about Kev.
[
Trog Sorrenson
Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 1:21 pm | Permalink
frednk
…
Sorry, but the game of doublespeak as practised by the Coalition, and to some extent by Labor, is not going to cut it in a time of rapid change.
]
As I have said several times Trog; be proud of the ETS we don’t have; the greens are pure; no doublespeak (policy developed in secret makes that easier); no ETS; be proud.
frednk
Same argument applies to Labor on the GST. See rollback failure. See failure to block in the Senate.
Labor was outvoted just like the Greens.
Your argument has not merit. The Greens are not responsible for the actions of the LNP no matter how you try and say otherwise.
kak @1887
It better than the idiots who wear Che Guvera gear and Mao hats and T-shirts with Lenin on them.
guytaur,
I do try very hard to have sensible discussions. 🙂
Turnbull is getting advice from right, more right, and far right……
[James Massola
James Massola – Verified account @jamesmassola
And @TheIPA’s John Roskam warns PM and Treasurer stop spending political capital on GST rise and “drop it” now http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-opposition-to-gst-increase-grows-as-cory-bernardi-flags-crossing-the-floor-20160203-gml5t2?skin=smart-phone …]
What’s bernadiup to? Sometimes I feel he is gunning for a shift to the lower house. Anyone know of a safe Adelaide liberal seat up for grabs?
lenoretaylor: Income inequality: trickle down economics is alive and well in Australia | Ben Oquist https://t.co/iYEabAHZEK #auspol
I have sensible discussions all the time and I am always polite when talking to myself.
MTBW @1900 – No – just quoting ALP Cabinet Members who worked directly with the sociopath.
dwh
😆
BernardKeane: Offshore processing may have worked but the government’s warped, sadistic version of it has destroyed it as a policy https://t.co/m2vlKMIHX1
‘ABCC not worth a double dissolution
Malcolm Turnbull’s threat (however empty) to call a double dissolution election over a bill to reinstate the controversial Australian Building and Construction Commission is seriously misguided.
If it does come to that, his government will face a significant backlash for dragging voters to the polls over an issue that is ultimately politically motivated and designed to damage the Labor Party. And if it doesn’t, he risks becoming the boy who cried wolf, just like his predecessor. It’s hardly an effective way to negotiate reform, as Tony Abbott found.
The PM told Coalition MPs this week that a snap election over the bill was a “live option” if the Senate voted the bill down a second time, after it was first (narrowly) defeated in August last year. The lower house passed the bill for the second time this morning, but it faces hurdles in the Senate, where the deciding vote rests with crossbenchers.
As Bernard Keane wrote yesterday, the ABCC bill represents a remarkable assault on basic rights that Australians take for granted, including the right to silence and the right to legal representation. It’s also based on a flawed argument that productivity in the construction sector was higher under the previous ABCC. There is simply no evidence to support that.
Importantly, though, it is also not an issue that concerns a majority of Australians. The attempt to reinstate the ABCC is a cynical move designed to hobble the construction union and damage the Labor Party, and Turnbull should know better than to pretend it is an issue of national concern. Empty threats of a double dissolution election on this bill do the Prime Minister no favours.’
Hear bloody hear!
Simon Katich @ 1913,
‘ What’s bernadiup to? Sometimes I feel he is gunning for a shift to the lower house. Anyone know of a safe Adelaide liberal seat up for grabs?’
Sturt? 😀
bemused
You mean some of the those who found themselves in Government rather than Opposition at the 2007 election?
I would bet money they didn’t mind being Ministers for a few years.
Troglodyte @1902
[“Greens . . Pro-growth”]
Oh, that’s lightened my day up – good to see a sense of humour on display.
Almost blew the coffee over the monitor and had to spit it in the bin.
The right wing anarchist bomb thrower is well armed today.
Still not playing Crank.
I suggest Casey, Davis or Mawson for Bernadi.
victoria @1904
Well, it’s hardly damaged his approval ratings or the 2PP for the LNP in NSW.
[The PM told Coalition MPs this week that a snap election over the bill was a “live option” if the Senate voted the bill down a second time, after it was first (narrowly) defeated in August last year. The lower house passed the bill for the second time this morning, but it faces hurdles in the Senate, where the deciding vote rests with cross benchers.]
Technically it is, of course, as it provides a DD trigger. But this bit of swagger, allowed to be reported so that the Senate cross-benchers get the wind up them, again reflects a gross tone deafness on the part of the government. Not only are the cross benchers much more intelligent than the Government gives them credit for (mainly because nobody could be that stupid except the Coalition political strategists) but they don’t all necessary live in existential fear of losing their cushy, extremely well-paying job, as the Government seems to think.
davidwh @ 1924,
‘I suggest Casey, Davis or Mawson for Bernadi.’
Under President Donald Trump.
bencubby: Waleed Aly comment piece: Nauru – How can we keep lying to ourselves? https://t.co/W7h2NKLjNF
vic @1912 – it’s very good advice from the IPA – reduce federal government spending & cut taxes: generate profits, growth and jobs.
Why take the political pain to support ALP spending policies?
Don
subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE),was the disease that took the daughter of Ken and Gay Davidson the journalists.
His story in the Canberra times about 1981 certainly boosted the measles vaccination rate.
C@t good idea and we could send Prince Charles along as well.
frednk
[be proud of the ETS we don’t have]
and
[no ETS; be proud.]
You are repeating stuff again – better to stick with rational argument than resorting to an emotional deflection.
davidwh – I’d love to go to any of those – I don’t like the term bucket list but it is one of things I’d like to do one day.
TPOF @1923
First time I’ve ever been called an Anarchist.
Compact Crank@1922
Well relative to the LNP, the Greens ARE pro-growth.
The LNP has consciously destroyed the car industry and is working assiduously to take Australia down the path that leads to lots of stranded assets in the fossil fuel based industries.
Saboteurs!
Here’s a philosophical quandary for PBers to think about:
In general, is it better to compromise to get you want even though it may be significantly weaker than what you desire; or is it better to wait in the hope that you can get a better version of the thing you want, no matter how vague that hope may be?
[You will recall that earlier this morning the House of Representatives passed the ABCC legislation (see 10.51 am post).
The Senate has just voted to send the legislation to a committee which will not report back until March 15 which leaves only two days for the legislation to be considered and voted on before the seven week pre budget break. Which would seem to have deprived Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of his double dissolution trigger.]
Ha, Ha, Ha!
Dutton and Turnbull are pussies.
From wiki:
[A report after the war concluded that 27,927 Boers (of whom 24,074 [50 percent of the Boer child population] were children under 16) had died of starvation, disease and exposure in the concentration camps. In all, about one in four (25 percent) of the Boer inmates, mostly children, died.]
CC it was a dream of mine but I am now too old to achieve that dream.
[First time I’ve ever been called an Anarchist.]
First time for everything Crank. One day you might even make a thoughtful contribution to the discussion, rather than some sneering generic put-down where you are too gutless to even be explicit about what you mean.
[ Which would seem to have deprived Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of his double dissolution trigger]
Labor and the Greens too scared to face the people? 🙂
bemused @1935 What about the Buggy Whip Makers?
Compact Crank@1929
Yep, straight out of the 19th or early 20th Century.
[That definition certainly wouldn’t describe Naru regardless of how bad Naru may be.]
Correct. There is no question of anyone doing any work on Nauru, forced or otherwise. Nauru has a 90% unemployment rate! Just the place for homeless ex-refugees to be allowed to exercise their new-found freedoms, once processed, of course.
Compact Crank #1929
[Reduce federal government spending & cut taxes… generate profits, growth and jobs.]
What’s Phase 2?
david – bollocks – you’re never too old. If your are medically restricted from flying then that’s a different matter.
Note to everyone – TPOF has got out of the wrong side of bed this morning.
Crank
[“Greens . . Pro-growth”
Oh, that’s lightened my day up – good to see a sense of humour on display.
Almost blew the coffee over the monitor and had to spit it in the bin.]
Glad to lighten your day.
With a few seeds of logic that may, in time, germinate.
[Labor and the Greens too scared to face the people? :)]
Number one rule of political combat is to disrupt your opponents’ plans – not necessarily because you want something different, but because having to remake the plans and line as many ducks as possible up again distracts your opponent (especially if it is the government) from doing constructive things that it should be doing.
Abbott and the whole Coalition played that game utterly ruthlessly when in Opposition. Even in such incredibly petty things as arranging pairs. And, of course, voting down the Malaysian People Swap on ‘humanitarian’ grounds.
CC I need to save. Probably could afford the trip about the beginning of MTPM’s third term 🙂