Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The first Newspoll of the year records next to no change on voting intention, although Malcolm Turnbull has lost ground on preferred prime minister.

The Australian has brought us the first Newspoll result of the year, and it supports the trend of other polling in suggesting nothing much has changed over the new year break. The Coalition’s two-party lead remains at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (up one) and Greens 11% (down one). Bill Shorten has at least made up ground on preferred prime minister, which Malcolm Turnbull now leads 59-20, down from 60-14 in the last poll in December. The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation, with 37% in support. Stay tuned for Turnbull’s and Shorten’s personal ratings.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is on 53% approval and 31% disapproval, which is up a point on both counts since the last poll, while Shorten is up two to 25% and down one to 60%.

UPDATE 2: A second tranche of results from the poll finds 71% favouring an election late in the year compared with only 21% for an election in the first half of the year. Opinions on Tony Abbott’s future are finely balanced: 46% would have him remain in politics (26% on the front bench, 20% on the back bench), while 45% want him to bow out at the next election.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest two-week rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition lead back to 51-49 after its brief stay at 52-48 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Further results suggest a curious drop in support for a republic since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, with support down three since September to 36% and opposition up two to 31%. When specified that the change might occur at the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign, support goes up to 45%, with opposition at 29%. Fifty-six per cent think it likely that Australia will one day be a republic, compared with 24% unlikely. Despite this, there is broad opposition to changing the flag (33% support, 55% oppose), the national anthem (28% support, 54% oppose) and the date of Australia Day (23% support, 59% oppose).

A semi-regular question on trust in various media sources finds a slight across-the-board improvement since June last year, without disturbing the usual pattern of public broadcasting being viewed more favourably than the commercial media, and straight news being rated higher than opinion in its various forms. However, a question on individual newspapers finds opinions of The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald-Sun have improved, while the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Courier-Mail have not. This all but eliminates the gap between The Australian and the Fairfax titles, although the News Corp tabloids (particularly the Courier-Mail) continue to trail the pack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Compact Crank@1999

    bemused @1987

    Us – 3

    Them – 3 and about +20 or so in jail on various terrorism offences and about +100 overseas with ISIS – all of whom would love to be able to kill thousands of us if they got the chance.

    It goes to what is an acceptable risk – I am more than happy to take the risk of riding in a car or swimming in the ocean – they are risks I choose to take.

    I do not accept, and nor does the majority of the public, accept that we should be at risk from terrorists.

    My count is 1 – Curtis Cheng.

    And that’s since 1915.

    I am quaking in my boots!

  2. bemused @1991 – bollocks, if Gates moved to Perth the inequality jump would be massive. It would not have a negative effect on growth – it would be positive. Many extra would be employed. If he then moved out of Perth – the inequality would drop and we would lose all the jobs supporting his lifestyle choices.

  3. [If the facilities were humane and if the people held there had some final humane resolution I could tolerate offshore processing but what we are doing now isn’t right in my opinion.]

    Agreed.

  4. Compact Crank@2002

    bemused @1991 – bollocks, if Gates moved to Perth the inequality jump would be massive. It would not have a negative effect on growth – it would be positive. Many extra would be employed. If he then moved out of Perth – the inequality would drop and we would lose all the jobs supporting his lifestyle choices.

    The fact that you have to resort to such an artificial and extreme example says it all.

  5. david @2000 – what’s not humane about being able to chose where you live in Nauru and being able to open your own Restaurant?

  6. joshgnosis: Turnbull says he has complained loudly and openly about ABC coverage of the NBN. He said ABC covereage was “poor and lacked balance”. #qt

  7. bemused @2001 – make sure you tell the families of the victims of the Lindt Café siege that they aren’t victims of terrorism.

  8. [
    bemused

    Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    Apart from border disputes, I think the age of invasion and conquest is just about over.

    ]

    That will sure be most welcome news to the peoples of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc etc

    Seeing as the US has been in prolonged wars since 1941?????

    “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”

    ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

  9. Compact Crank@2010

    bemused @2001 – make sure you tell the families of the victims of the Lindt Café siege that they aren’t victims of terrorism.

    One was a nutter attention seeking pretend terrorist.
    One was shot by the nutter.
    One was shot by police.

    I will be interested to see what the Coroner eventually says.

  10. davrosz: So, Turnbull says he complained “publicly AND privately” about the ABC’s NBN coverage. In other words, he heavied Mark Scott. #qt

  11. [davidwh

    Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    I have sensible discussions all the time and I am always polite when talking to myself. ]

    That’s odd. I’m normally at my most vitriolic when talking to myself.

  12. [what’s not humane about being able to chose where you live in Nauru and being able to open your own Restaurant?]

    I wonder how things would go on Naru if they had 800 kebab restaurants open up?

  13. tanya_plibersek: Extraordinary admission from @TurnbullMalcolm he called @ABCaustralia to heavy senior management with complaints about their NBN coverage

  14. phoenixRED@2012

    bemused

    Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    Apart from border disputes, I think the age of invasion and conquest is just about over.


    That will sure be most welcome news to the peoples of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc etc

    Seeing as the US has been in prolonged wars since 1941?????

    “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”

    ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

    The US is into regime change in such places rather than seeking to invade, conquer and occupy as a permanent conquest or colony.

    That is not to in any way condone such actions which are generally wrong.

    There are also civil war dimensions to those conflicts.

    Yes, big powers will continue, one way or another, to interfere in other countries e.g. Russia in Ukraine and US in many places. But the old wars of conquest are, I believe, over.

  15. MattDoran91: .@TurnbullMalcolm says his criticism of ABC coverage of the NBN is well known – has said nothing privately he hasn’t said publicly #qt

    retweeterd by ABCNews 24

    No more ignoring now.

  16. BernardKeane: .@TurnbullMalcolm’s complaints should have been to the (govt-appointed) chair. Alston never complained to the MD, Conroy never did either.

  17. Scott Bales

    Here is a taster:

    [The Australian Greens want:
    1.A strong, uniform, properly enforced national legislative framework for the protection of the welfare of broad categories of animals, which makes acts of cruelty subject to criminal penalties and also regulates conditions of captivity, transport and slaughter.
    2.An end to cruel and unnecessary use of animals for teaching and research purposes.
    3.The establishment of a national regulatory body for animal welfare.
    4.Increased community understanding of the impacts of consumer choices on animal welfare and on the environment.
    5.An end to the export of live animals for consumption.
    6.An end to inhumane farming practices that are inconsistent with animals’ natural behavioural needs, and a phasing out of intensive farming practices in meat, dairy and egg production.
    7.The development of an Australian standard for free-range farming practices for all agricultural animals.
    8.A ban on the importation of animal products produced by methods which do not accord with Australian animal welfare standards.
    9.A ban on the importation or exportation of animals for zoos, except where it will assist the overall conservation of the species.
    10.Improved global conservation of habitat for endangered species through Australia’s trade, diplomatic and aid relations.
    11.An accurate national labelling system for foods and other products identifying cruelty-free, free-range, organic, and free from content derived from habitat destruction, such as palm oil.]

    In sum:

    Exit stage left a whole lot of economic activity:

    All GMO activity stopped straight away. Life animal exports stopped straight away. Feedlots, piggeries, fish farms, prawn farms and chook farms stopped straight away.

    Enter stage right: a whole new suite of bureaucracies, processes, regulations, requirements, approval processes – all of which will add to the costs and add to the delays.

    If you go through the Greens’ policies they are all like that.

    For example Greens policies is to close all uranium mines. This includes Olympic Dam which is, inter alia, a uranium mine.

    It goes on and on and on.

    If you seriously support the Greens because you seriously think they are pro growth you need seriously to study all their policies.

    They will cause immediate negative growth in the economy the nanosecond they become government.

    And that is even before the capital flight they will engender, of course.

  18. bemused@2013: “One was a nutter attention seeking pretend terrorist.
    One was shot by the nutter.
    One was shot by police.”

    I think that makes two people killed by a terrorist at Lindt Cafe.

    I don’t see how the fact that someone is 1) a nutter and 2) attention-seeking disqualifies them from being a terrorist these days. Nor does the fact that, in Monis’s case, there wasn’t a clear political objective to the terror.

    There was a time when we expected terrorists to have clearly-defined political goals. But modern Islamist terror in the West is largely motivated by the goal of randomly killing as many innocent people as possible to the alleged glory of Allah and Islam.

    Monis’s comes under that category.

    People inadvertently killed by the cops while they are trying to stop acts of terror are usually counted among the victims.

    So my count is Curtis Cheng plus 2 at the Lindt Cafe.

  19. Tomorrow’s question will be: who did you complain to? What did you say?

    I bet there is an ABC memo of the chat floating about. Wonder if Labor has it? I think they’ve got something!

  20. [ Compact Crank

    Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    david @2000 – what’s not humane about being able to chose where you live in Nauru and being able to open your own Restaurant?

    ]

    Open to further investigation but there are reports of a British POW soccer team at Auschwitz …..

    Revealed: the British troops imprisoned at Auschwitz

    Hundreds of Allied prisoners of war were sent to the death camp where they worked alongside Jewish inmates as slave labourers and witnessed their suffering.

    The soldiers have kept silent about their experiences — until now

    http://www.thejc.com/lifestyle/lifestyle-features/26001/revealed-british-troops-imprisoned-auschwitz

  21. Boerwar@2025: I know quite a few scientists who work in biological and environmental areas (we have a lot of them down here in Hobart, although many of those who work at CSIRO Oceans and Atmospheric division look like they might soon be out of a job).

    As far as I can work out from talking to some of them, the anti-GMO movement is at least as ratbag from a scientific point of view as anti-vaccination and climate change denial.

  22. [Turnbull has MASSIVE form ringing up critics to abuse them. He just can’t help himself.]

    Yep, he loves to go the man when he thinks they can’t hit back.

  23. What boerwar said @2025

    Just look at what they’ve done to Tasmania – consistently the worst economic performer and yet it has so many natural benefits.

    If WA was Tasmania we would still be waiting for the nickel boom.

  24. I’m glad meher baba decided to go on with it @2026

    By any rational definition all Islamicist Terrorists are freaking nutters.

  25. meher baba@2026

    bemused@2013: “One was a nutter attention seeking pretend terrorist.
    One was shot by the nutter.
    One was shot by police.”

    I think that makes two people killed by a terrorist at Lindt Cafe.

    I don’t see how the fact that someone is 1) a nutter and 2) attention-seeking disqualifies them from being a terrorist these days. Nor does the fact that, in Monis’s case, there wasn’t a clear political objective to the terror.

    There was a time when we expected terrorists to have clearly-defined political goals. But modern Islamist terror in the West is largely motivated by the goal of randomly killing as many innocent people as possible to the alleged glory of Allah and Islam.

    Monis’s comes under that category.

    People inadvertently killed by the cops while they are trying to stop acts of terror are usually counted among the victims.

    So my count is Curtis Cheng plus 2 at the Lindt Cafe.

    Monis was shot by police.
    Monis shot one person.
    Another person was shot by police.

    Monis only shot one person.

    So my count was right. But Monis wasn’t a terrorist. He was simply a nutter and a criminal who should have been already locked up.

  26. [ ratsak

    Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    Turnbull has MASSIVE form ringing up critics to abuse them. He just can’t help himself.

    Yep, he loves to go the man when he thinks they can’t hit back.

    ]

    From the pages of CRIKEY itself :

    Love’s letter lost: Malcolm Turnbull’s dead cat scrawl unearthed

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/18/loves-letter-lost-malcolm-turnbulls-dead-cat-scrawl-unearthed/

    Apparently (Diamond) Jim McClelland, Fiona’s step-father was disturbed by her story about the cat. He said of Turnbull:

    He’s a turd. He’s easy to loathe, he’s a sh-t, he’d devour anyone for breakfast, he’s on the make, he’s cynical, he’s offensively smug.

    What on earth would have given him that notion?

  27. [ I reluctantly agreed with offshore processing only because the number of people perishing at sea had reached serious numbers. However it is now obvious we are incapable of providing proper living conditions and there is absolutely no exit strategies for these people.

    Personally I can’t agree with any policy that keeps people in detention for the amount of time these people are being held and without any logical path to a proper life.

    It’s just not right. ]

    Thankyou for that davidwh. What you wrote pretty much articulates my basic position on this matter as well.

    Its not right, and as a nation we need to do better.

  28. [He’s a turd. He’s easy to loathe, he’s a sh-t, he’d devour anyone for breakfast, he’s on the make, he’s cynical, he’s offensively smug.]

    Diamond Jim spoke the truth

  29. Its going to be interesting what if any reporting the media are going to do. Very hard now for Canberra Press Gallery to ignore. Its now very political they will have to comment.

  30. Re the idea of the Ruddster as UN Sec-Gen.

    I don’t think there is any chance of JBish not supporting it because Rudd is the wrong colour politically: that wouldn’t be acceptable grounds in global diplo circles.

    Nor would the suggestion that Rudd is a vicious, tyrannical sort of character (although he claimed in 2013 that he’d changed) be any sort of grounds for not supporting him.

    A stronger reason would be one of Australia’s image. The UNSG position has typically gone to people from smaller and/or up-and-coming nations that are seen as non-threatening in a geopolitical sense. There has never been a UNSG from a G7 nation and Ban-ki Moon is the only UNSG to come from a G20 nation, and he was appointed before the G20 came into existence.
    There is therefore an argument that Australia providing a UNSG could be seen as “slumming it”.

    Finally, there is the question of competency. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that Rudd really didn’t have the competence to run a large organisation. I realise that some posters on here are unable to accept this, but too many reliable judges on both sides of politics – forget about his Labor detractors, try this article from Downer
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2010/06/meet-the-real-kevin-rudd/ – and the Press Gallery have put this view forward for it to be completely ignored.

    If Rudd turns out to be incompetent and causes the UN to become dysfunctional, this could reflect badly on Australia’s image.

    So there you go: a difficult choice for JBish, methinks.

    I might conclude by stating that, as Kerry O’Brien said on the ABC last night, we are in the middle of a very depressing period of Australian political history. After almost a quarter of a century of government by three highly competent PMs (whatever you might think of their policies) – Hawke, Keating and Howard – we have had 5 changes of PM in 8 years of which 3 brought incompetents to the job (Rudd in 2007, Rudd in 2013 and Abbott in 2013) and I’m not entirely sure about the most recent one either.

  31. [1989
    Compact Crank
    What has European settlement done for Aboriginals? Who wouldn’t prefer living a stone-age existence?
    ]

    What a vile and despicable thing to say. Truly the right-wing is morally bankrupt, and their stupidity unending.

  32. guytaur

    from what I have gleaned to date, The CBG has totally ignored fhe Nick Ross story. The silence has been very telling in my view. From recollection, one journo on his blog made mention of the story in the daily tele initially, and the focus was on the recording

  33. victoria

    Yes. That is the case. The exception was the buzzfeed Canberra Press Gallery reporter. They did cover the story on a he said he said basis just like Delimiter did.

  34. [Agnes Mack
    Agnes Mack – ‏@AgnessMack

    The point is, Mr. Turnbull, that you not only complained about ABC publicly, but, and this is the worrying bit, also privately to Scott. #qt
    8:09 PM – 3 Feb 2016 from Sydney, New South Wales
    8 RETWEETS2 LIKES]

  35. [ Compact Crank

    Posted Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    bemused @1987

    Us – 3

    Them – 3 and about +20 or so in jail on various terrorism offences and about +100 overseas with ISIS – all of whom would love to be able to kill thousands of us if they got the chance.

    It goes to what is an acceptable risk – I am more than happy to take the risk of riding in a car or swimming in the ocean – they are risks I choose to take.

    ]

    With YOUR past history of decimal place Maths – and SPEEDING – being in a car with you is a risk that neither I – or any other sensible Australian – should take …..

    Just imagine it ” But, but Officer ….. I saw it on my speedo – I was only doing 10.6 KPH” ….

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