BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Coalition

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back for the new year with something less than a bang.

BludgerTrack is back in action following poll results last week from Roy Morgan and this week from Essential Research. The only movement it records is from the Greens to Labor, with two-party preferred all but unchanged, and a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Victoria balanced out by a loss in South Australia. Given the gap in the time series, the model is highly sensitive to the latest data points, so I’d await confirmation from further polling before I read anything into what little movement has been recorded. For similar reasons, I haven’t updated the leadership ratings despite there being a new result this week from Essential Research.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Coalition”

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  2. bemused

    It is indeed.

    You need to sharpen your comprehension skills. As well as the point that I was originally making which was about the reporting.

    Remember if it was not news the ABC would not be reporting it.

  5. FactCheckJohn: Should be a ripper @ABCthedrum at 6.30 – @ian_hickie @bkjabour + @TimElliottSMH with their topical picks + @AntonyGreenABC on @CliveFPalmer

  7. meher baba @ 428: Richard Carleton’s behaviour in East Timor at the time of the 1999 ballot was beyond disgusting: he put lives in jeopardy. Full details are in the book Tim Fischer – a witness to Carleton’s behaviour – published not long after.

  9. Bemused one non-ABC one.

    I opened up and email from a European based VAT mob yesterday and its first paragraph made me think of you.

    Wtte ‘US presidential hopefuls throw around VAT scares while the rest of the world increases VAT rates to fund corporate tax rate cuts.

  12. zoomster

    [I was forced to do housework. Is there someone I can sue for mental suffering?]

    😀 I went out and did weekly shopping in the rain. Couldn’t face housework.

  14. WeWantPaul@459

    Bemused one non-ABC one.

    I opened up and email from a European based VAT mob yesterday and its first paragraph made me think of you.

    Wtte ‘US presidential hopefuls throw around VAT scares while the rest of the world increases VAT rates to fund corporate tax rate cuts.

    Why think of me?

    I don’t think many on PB favour increasing GST.

  17. Re the Nick Ross case. It is clearly an interesting test of the ABC’s commitment to “balance”.

    I think the ABC has been increasingly struggling in recent times with the concept of “balance”: particularly in the recent period when one of the two major political parties was demonstrating the influence from Tea Party-type thinking and was making some strong claims that could be perceived as being at odds with the facts.

    It is important for the ABC to keep trying to hold the line that it isn’t “unbalanced” for journalists to challenge claims made by either side of politics that are at odds with widely-known facts. The ABC needs not to cower in the face of risible criticisms such those made by the “independent audit” of the Sales-Hockey interview (and I have to say that Kate Torney’s response on that occasion was exemplary).

    It’s a bit hard to work out whether or not Belsham, in his discussions with Ross, was displaying an element of “cowering” at the prospect of potential future criticism from the Coalition in general and Turnbull in particular. That’s certainly the way that Ross wants to portray it, but arguably Belsham was directing his comments more towards the need for Ross himself to ensure that he was not perceived as having a personal bias rather than towards the risk of the ABC as a whole being perceived to be biased on the issue of the NBN.

    And there’s the rub. Ross seems to have very, very strong views about the NBN. They might be factually based to a certain extent, but I have to confess that – when I read his “suppressed” article – I didn’t feel 100% convinced by him in the way that I would do when, for instance, I read an article about climate change by a reputable climate scientist.

    The really well-qualified climate scientists (and I’m not talking about scientist advocates like Tim Flannery, who is excellent in his own way, but who is not recognised by his peers as being a leading climate science researcher) put their arguments in a sober, dispassionate way, drawing entirely on peer-reviewed research.

    Ross, on the other hand, comes across as a bit passionate. He comes across as believing that the Rudd-Gillard NBN as a major step forward for Australia and, therefore, that any Coalition plans to change it as being a step in the wrong direction.

    I’m not saying he’s wrong, but I’m saying that any ABC journalist who wishes to express strong views on an issue on which the two major political parties are at odds is always going to find themselves in a very difficult position.

    Ross would have done far better to have interviewed a range of recognised ICT experts and presented their views on the NBN: if these had all turned out to be critical of Turnbull’s policies, then so be it.

    In general, I’m not really sure that it’s such a great idea for all these ABC reporters and journalists to be writing articles for the Drum website and elsewhere expressing their own personal opinions on the issues of the day. That’s not what I’m looking for from ABC journos, and I think it’s unfair for them to be put in this position.

  18. Baba

    Ross was reporting facts. Passionate about them or not.

    Superiority of fibre to copper is a fact. To say otherwise is to lie.

    To be passionate in reporting facts is not advocacy. Its reporting without fear or favour.

    I do agree with your last paragraph on the Drum. Very much so.

  19. CTar1 @ 461: One can at a pinch forgive someone for being a dropkick. But to go up to East Timorese lining up to vote and ask them whether they were going to vote for independence when there were militias looking on was totally unforgivable.

    Tim Fischer again: “… the townspeople of Liquica had been left behind to face a militia that had suddenly become very angry, stirred up as they were by Richard Carleton’s activities.”

    This was the same militia group, known as Besi Merah Putih, which only a few months before had massacred a large number of people in the local church. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Besi_Merah_Putih and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liqui%C3%A7%C3%A1_Church_massacre).

    Carleton was a piece of human garbage.

  20. Shellbell, if you’re still around, is there any water to Tim Blair’s claim that by Ross secreting recording his conservation with Bruce Belsham; Ross (and by extension, New Maltida) has broken the NSW Surveillance Devices Act 2007?

    [New Matilda and Nick Ross had broken a law allowing for jail terms of up to five years. The Surveillance Devices Act (2007) makes very clear that it is illegal in NSW to record a private conversation.]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/leftists_attack_abc_endanger_themselves/

    This is the revelant section in question:
    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/sda2007210/s7.html

  21. The analysis today by Ben Eltham is pretty objective, IMO.
    Ends:

    [Languishing in the seldom-linked-to depths of the ABC website, the ABC’s “Technology and Games” page lives on. There, almost un-noticed, writes David Braue. On hidden-away pages like this, you can find Braue writing sensible, well-researched analysis of the halting progress of the multi-technology mix. Almost no-one in the ABC seems to have noticed.]

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/01/22/false-balance-abc-coverage-of-the-nbn-since-september-2013/

  24. Millenial @ 470: Maybe that provision was included to protect the members of the NSW Labor caucus from each other. In any case, there might be a couple of potential loopholes in paragraph 7(3)(b).

  27. Sorry wrong tweet I hope spanish speakers enjoyed however.

    This is correct one. An in case you missed it. ICYMI for bemused’s benefit.
    NickRossTech: Here’s the April 2013 #NBN article that ABC management didn’t let you see “because politics” https://t.co/FKtCW9TaSz

  28. guytaur – New Matilda were threatening a further Nova Peris story on the same divorce topic that never came out. I doubt anything was *legalled* at the time anyway. Seems to be all done on a wing and prayer over there.

  29. Millenial

    It would turn on whether in recording the conversation, Ross can demonstrate the recording “is reasonably necessary for the protection of [his] lawful interests…”

    There are some cases on it in the Family Law and criminal context one of which gives these examples (which I have slightly edited):

    [a.In R v Lee, the Court was satisfied that the “desire of a witness to protect her credibility generally; to support her credibility if she had to give evidence in a court proceeding about the matter; and to protect herself against exposure to being charged with making false allegations against other people about matters of considerable seriousness” did constitute lawful interests for the purpose of the phrase used in the predecessor to section 7(3)(b)(i) of the Surveillance Devices Act 2007
    b….
    c. a recording made where a serious dispute had erupted, and it was anticipated there would be a dispute as to the different versions of an arrangement, might give rise to a lawful interest.
    d.In R v Coutts, the South Australian District Court considered a recording of a conversation by the complainant to be for the protection of the lawful interests of that person in circumstances where the accused was charged with numerous counts of sexual assault and assault against his former partner. The complainant alleged that the accused had told her that he had been previously charged with rape based on the complaint of another woman, but it had been his word against hers and that even if it was recorded, it could not be used in court. The recording there was described as a “graphic account of threats, belittlement and sounds of forced sex, while the complainant was crying and in distress and pain.” His Honour there identified the complainant’s “lawful interests” as being her interest in defending against the extreme levels of harm and danger she faced.]

    My view is that he would fall short of the mark but his rationale for recording has not been fully exposed.

  30. guytaur@477

    Sorry wrong tweet I hope spanish speakers enjoyed however.

    This is correct one. An in case you missed it. ICYMI for bemused’s benefit.
    NickRossTech: Here’s the April 2013 #NBN article that ABC management didn’t let you see “because politics” https://t.co/FKtCW9TaSz

    I already posted that article @423.
    Do pay attention.

  32. pedant@469: “Carleton was a piece of human garbage.”

    We should thank god that True Blue Aussie, with his affronting and objectionable attacks on other people, is no longer on PB.

  37. The first reason the Nick Ross story will not go much further in the media is that the recording looks to be illegal in NSW, and they’d rather not take a chance. The second reason is related to what meher baba was saying. I’ll bet most people in the media have had similar little talks about how to pitch your articles so you don’t look biased, or maybe don’t upset the bias of editors, or advertisers, or whatever. They are thinking “there but for the grace of god go I”. None of this means there aren’t problems at the ABC, but maybe the water is a bit muddied. Anyway for those who haven’t seen it, and are subscribers, see today’s Crikey article for a different view.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/01/22/ex-abc-journo-sticks-by-gag-claim-though-illegal-recording-sheds-little-light-on-saga/

  38. shellbell #479
    [It would turn on whether in recording the conversation, Ross can demonstrate the recording “is reasonably necessary for the protection of [his] lawful interests…”

    My view is that he would fall short of the mark but his rationale for recording has not been fully exposed.]

    OK, thanks Shellbell.

  39. LL

    Myriam Robin is a good journalist. However I disagree. The legality was no problem with the Slipper affair or many others.

    Fact is MSM has failed to report the story in any way. Not even the way they reported the illegal taping that broke NSW law in the prank call to England on the birth of Prince George to the Duchess.

    Content of story is important is very relevant to politics and should be pursued at least as vigorously as the prank call was.

  42. Re listening/recording device

    [newmatilda
    newmatilda – ‏@newmatilda

    @joshgnosis @NewtonMark In taping, Ross has a defence of protecting his personal/legal interests from attack. We do not.
    8:49 PM – 21 Jan 2016
    2 RETWEETS1 LIKE]

  43. guytaur@491

    bemused

    You are the one making the comments about my posts no one else.

    No projection there except maybe by you.

    Maybe I am the only one who ever bothers reading them. 😐

  47. new Matilda dont appear concerned

    [Ancestors
    Broken Buzzcock
    2h2 hours ago
    Broken Buzzcock ‏@Jansant
    @newmatilda pssttt recording gives Nick Ross defence. Admission personal/professional reputation under threat,]

    [newmatilda
    newmatilda – ‏@newmatilda

    @Jansant Yes, it does 🙂
    9:36 PM – 21 Jan 2016]

  48. It seems I can:

    Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 2m2 minutes ago

    French PM Manuel Valls says refugee crisis is ‘destabilising’ Europe http://trib.al/eBTvIxF

    Well perhaps the East & West should stop creating wars and proxy wars?!?!? And actually do something about creating a permanent home for refugees, that they can call ‘home’ after political disruption of the century!

  49. gt

    [The legality was no problem with the Slipper affair]

    Maybe I’ve forgotten but was there any recording of conversations.

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