BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Coalition

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back for the new year with something less than a bang.

BludgerTrack is back in action following poll results last week from Roy Morgan and this week from Essential Research. The only movement it records is from the Greens to Labor, with two-party preferred all but unchanged, and a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Victoria balanced out by a loss in South Australia. Given the gap in the time series, the model is highly sensitive to the latest data points, so I’d await confirmation from further polling before I read anything into what little movement has been recorded. For similar reasons, I haven’t updated the leadership ratings despite there being a new result this week from Essential Research.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Coalition”

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  1. Ctar

    I can’t remember but my point was about the publishers worry about legality not the particular form of breaking it to bring evidence into dispute. The texts for instance about mussels.

  2. Ctar

    Sorry not evidence into dispute. Evidence into the public domain which has been in dispute as a political issue is what I meant to say.

  3. Thefinnigans: Hey @ABCFactCheck what about fact check this, i dare you:

    ABC is more critical of Labor’s policies in its reporting than LNP’s policies

  4. Good post MB – although this bit went slightly against the grain:

    It’s a bit hard to work out whether or not Belsham, in his discussions with Ross, was displaying an element of “cowering” at the prospect of potential future criticism from the Coalition in general and Turnbull in particular. That’s certainly the way that Ross wants to portray it, but arguably Belsham was directing his comments more towards the need for Ross himself to ensure that he was not perceived as having a personal bias rather than towards the risk of the ABC as a whole being perceived to be biased on the issue of the NBN.

    We do know that Belsham told him to write a bad labor NBN story. And we know Belsham blamed the 14th floor which I assume is top brass and outside influences.

    What we don’t know is exactly what was motivating Belsham and how. He may have been acting in Ross’ best interest but clearly had no understanding of his direct report. Weak dishonest managers will guess what the top brass want and lie about it. We know he was willing to lie until told of the tape.

    But we also know that Turnbull was trying to shut Ross down. This would be much less interesting but for this aspect. We also know Turnbull is happy to pick up the phone and throw his weight around. We don’t know if or who Turnbull called or spoke too. I think it would be a little naive to think he was attacking Ross directly on twitter but not addressing it in other ways.

    It is imaginable that a hypothetical Turnbull call to Scott was robust and intense. I don’t know how many steps down the rung Belsham is but the truly awful and repugnant idea to concoct a bad labor story to make the pain go away could have been inserted at any level, including Belsham himself.

    That seems simple and consistent with bad organisational behaviour I’ve seen.

    It doesn’t however explain MW, nor Alberici knowing he was professional poison.

  5. But (Mr Windsor) warned against interpreting any political comeback as automatically meaning it would be against his nemesis and Federal Agriculture and Water Resources Minister Barnaby Joyce, for his former seat of New England in rural NSW.

    “People jump to this conclusion about this battle in New England against Barnaby Joyce but all I’ve ever said is that I don’t rule out a return to politics,” he said.

    “And I’ve not ruled out the Senate – there are a number of options on the table.”

    Mr Windsor said he wouldn’t make any final decision until he knew the outcome of a family health matter that he preferred wasn’t publicly disclosed.

    “I’m still contemplating it and I’m not ruling anything out,” he said.

    ”If it’s a positive decision – or a negative decision – I’ll make it at a time that suits me.”

    Mr Windsor said the key question he had to answer was whether he wanted to fight for the core rural and farming issues he passionately believed in and constantly advocated – like farmers mitigating climate variability risks and improving the NBN’s roll-out – again in the political arena.

    He said Mr Joyce was a “low key” representative with a “glaring” absence on taking “constructive action” to prevent damage to underground water sources – that underpin agriculture on the Liverpool Plains – via the Chinese backed Shenhua coal mine project.

    http://www.farmweekly.com.au/news/agriculture/general/politics/windsor-continues-to-mull-comeback/2751274.aspx

  6. The issue of the recording has drawn some comment among journalists on social media. The New South Wales Surveillance Devices Act holds it illegal to record a person in the state without their permission.

    “We’ve broken the law — we know we have,” New Maltida Editor and Owner Chris Graham told Crikey. “Our detailed legal advice is to throw ourselves at the mercy of the court. The fact is New South Wales doesn’t have a public interest defence in this for journalists or anybody else. So be it.”

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/01/22/ex-abc-journo-sticks-by-gag-claim-though-illegal-recording-sheds-little-light-on-saga/

    This basically confirms Leroy Lynch’s first reason on why most media outlets aren’t reporting this story until now – because if they willingly accepted Ross’s secret recordings; it would open them up to multiple public lawsuits, and in the long run, might potentially ruin their business.

  7. ‏@geeksrulz · 17s17 seconds ago
    Manning establishes the critical point that the LNP’s cost estimates of Labor’s fibre-to-the-premises network are essentially fictitious.

  10. https://themountainjournal.wordpress.com/2016/01/22/tas-fires-pose-threat-to-high-altitude-areas/

    The current fires in World Heritage and other conservation areas have been described as the ‘worst crisis in decades’. This is because so much high elevation vegetation is either already burnt or at immediate risk. Many key species, such as the iconic Pencil Pine, are very sensitive to fires and can take centuries to fully recover.

    As noted by Geoff Law in a piece in The Guardian by Michael Slezak:

    “As we speak there are areas burning inside the world heritage area, on the central plateau, where there are ancient species of native pine, which are very slow-growing and up to 1,000 years old,” Law said. “Some of those are being killed as we speak.”

    For many Australian forests, fire was a natural part of the ecology. But that was not the case for all of the areas now being threatened in Tasmania, Law said. “My concern is for the areas of rainforest and high-altitude vegetation in heavily glaciated [areas

    where fire is not and has not been part of the ecology for millions and millions of years.”

    Law said pencil pines and fagus, Australia’s only winter-deciduous tree, are now in the path of large fires moving into the world heritage area. “My concern is for a stunningly beautiful but vulnerable fragile and irreplaceable vegetation that occur in those high-altitude areas,” Law said.]

  11. Leigh Sales certain gave turnbull totally different treatment to that of Shorten soon after this interview.

    OK its a newscorpse article – but it was a very poor interview by Sales just the same –

    Softly, softly as Leigh Sales uses kid gloves on Malcolm Turnbull

    It was at times flirtatious. At times, apologetic. And there was plenty of laughter.

    The tone of 7.30 host Leigh Sales’s first interview with Malcolm Turnbull last night could not have been more different from her approach when taking to task Tony Abbott or Joe Hockey.
    …

    In her political interviews past, Sales was criticised for repeat, curt and rude interruptions. Her tone has been described as hostile and aggressive.

    It was a different Sales who, at the helm of the ABC’s flagship news and current affairs program, spoke to Mr Turnbull last night in a widely promoted interview.

    …..her tone was far gentler than it usually is with politicians. She smiled during some personal questions, and the pair joked together during their interview.

    Her trademark technique, for which she is famous, is to never let a politician off the hook.

    This was mostly absent in her sit-down with Mr Turnbull. ..
    …

    …..Sales allowed Mr Turnbull to speak for several minutes about what he had learnt from his time as opposition leader.

    Then Sales tentatively interrupted him.

    It wasn’t a discourteous interruption. Far from it. It was a flirtatious exchange, interspersed with laughter.

    “I’m sorry but you’re not at the dispatch box, you’re not at the bar, I’ve got to squeeze in one more question, before we run out of time,” Sales said.

    Turnbull replied, “Sorry, sorry, sorry.”

    Sales: “I’m sorry to be rude like that, too.”

    Turnbull: “You’re not being rude at all, it’s quite understandable.”

    Sales: “No, I did cut you directly off.”

    Turnbull: “It’s fine.”

    Perhaps this marks the start of a new era of respectful and gentle political reporting at the ABC.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/softly-softly-as-leigh-sales-uses-kid-gloves-on-malcolm-turnbull/story-fna045gd-1227537789836

  12. lizzie

    What goes round may be going round.

    All round the world global warming is changing ‘the rules’.

    The Kutakina cave occupation series essentially stopped once people could no longer set fire to the adjacent veg, that is when it got too wet.

    Once this happened the vegetation for the staple diet – wallabies – changed into rainforests.

    Our Anthropocene Extinction Event is in full swing.

  14. 2016 AUSTRALIA DAY ADDRESS
    Defence Lawyer and refugee advocate, Deng Thiak Adut, delivers the 2016 Australia Day address at the Sydney Conservatorium of Music.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-baird-sounds-warning-over-antiimmigration-politics-in-australia-day-speech-20160122-gmbzby.html#ixzz3xxIccoCU
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

    Hear his speech and realise how lucky we are to live in this country for all it’s faults.

  15. From post 508: worth reading, I think.

    I fundamentally disagree that technology reporting is the same as reporting on social issues or current affairs. In many cases, a technical plan is either good or bad. It’s not generally subjective. There is certainly a best case scenario with the NBN and it’s been proven time and time again. Labor’s NBN was the subject of extraordinary amounts of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) and mis-reporting for years up until it lost the 2013 election, with the Coalition keeping much of the detail of its plan vague until the lead up to election day itself.

    In the end, this comes down to ideology. The MTM (Multi Technology Mix) was never going to be cheaper or faster; Ross knew this. Many technology outlets that weren’t required to pat the Coalition on the back noted this. The plan relied heavily on the idea that the existing technology did not require much to bring it up to spec, which, again, was called on and has turned out to be a furphy. Most of the blowouts have been due to suspected copper remediation costs, higher costs for nodes and more upgrades to the HFC network.

    Pretending it didn’t, humouring the Coalition in terms of being “fair” rather than breaking down the flaws in their technical argument was doing the public a disservice. Yes, there were problems with Labor’s plan. They were noted and covered by many journalists including Ross. But they paled in comparison to the mess that is the MTM.

  16. Boerwar

    Our Anthropocene Extinction Event is in full swing.

    The more I read, the more obvious it is. Beyond tragedy.
    But the profiteers don’t care.
    I note that Stephen Hawking is now saying that the only way for humans to survive is if they move to another planet.

    And bugger that one up, too.

  23. Reports of 55-45 LNP lead by REACHTEL from primaries of 48 LNP, 32 ALP, 11 GREENS AND 9 OTHERS.

    Very strong result considering government hasn’t really done anything. I just don’t get what goes through swinging voters head.

  25. Gorkay, 523

    Isn’t that basically the same result we saw last ReachTEL? If so it’s not much of a swing, so it’s not like the Coalition is gaining votes or anything, it’s just staying steady.

  26. William

    (1) The ‘posting too fast’ message still crops up. FWIW you can let the bosses know that I will not be renewing my Crikey sub if this absurdity continues.

    (2) My Crikey newsletters are only arriving sporadically.

    All else is now AOK.

  27. The ABC can be very glass jawed to criticism.

    Very ‘interesting’ in that they spend a lot of Prime Current Affairs air time doing that of others – in many cases the ABC are right to do so.

    Over the years various Bludgers have laid out the detail of complaints they have made to the ABC about the ABC and the basic ‘go away’ replies they have received.

    The ABC investigating and responding to complaints about its own conduct ?

    In other cases, like Nick Ross its almost ‘How Dare You’ question us.

    The ABC is an important National Institution but it shouldn’t be beyond criticism. It should be praised when it does well and pointed out when it does less then expected.

    They are not sacrosanct.

    Where were the 4 Corners/ 730 programs going into the detail of turnbull’s version of the NBN, the deals done with Telstra and who ended up with a lot more dollars as a result.

    Mike Carlton seems to have bought into it all as a proxy warrior while the ABC remains apart from most of what Ross is saying.

    No good enough. There needs to be a response particularly to the contents of ‘the tape’ and whatever else comes out.

    How many other ABC reporters have been told to frame their reporting in the way Ross alleges he was told ?

    humouring the Coalition in terms of being “fair” rather than breaking down the flaws in their technical argument was doing the public a disservice. Yes, there were problems with Labor’s plan. They were noted and covered by many journalists including Ross. But they paled in comparison to the mess that is the MTM.

  29. I just don’t get what goes through swinging voters head.

    Its xmas, its new years, i’m fatter, oh god i didn’t win lotto and i have to go back to work…..

  33. That pctech article cited by zoidlord at #509 is interesting.
    Here is the conclusion

    I have attempted to be fairly neutral on this issue since it broke last week, but the revelations that broke today are extraordinary in their scope, and even more so in the reaction of the ABC to it.
    It is fairly clear by now that the Coalition has been awful to the ABC since it took power – breaking election promises by cutting funding and pushing both public and private political interference in its processes and how and what it reports and produces. So it’s with little surprise that a manager is heard begging a staff member to level bias by producing pointless fluff pieces on a policy that has been panned across the media and tech community.

    I fundamentally disagree that technology reporting is the same as reporting on social issues or current affairs. In many cases, a technical plan is either good or bad. It’s not generally subjective. There is certainly a best case scenario with the NBN and it’s been proven time and time again.
    Labor’s NBN was the subject of extraordinary amounts of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) and mis-reporting for years up until it lost the 2013 election, with the Coalition keeping much of the detail of its plan vague until the lead up to election day itself.

    In the end, this comes down to ideology.
    The MTM (Multi Technology Mix) was never going to be cheaper or faster; Ross knew this.
    Many technology outlets that weren’t required to pat the Coalition on the back noted this.
    The plan relied heavily on the idea that the existing technology did not require much to bring it up to spec, which, again, was called on and has turned out to be a furphy. Most of the blowouts have been due to suspected copper remediation costs, higher costs for nodes and more upgrades to the HFC network.

    Pretending it didn’t, humouring the Coalition in terms of being “fair” rather than breaking down the flaws in their technical argument was doing the public a disservice.
    Yes, there were problems with Labor’s plan. They were noted and covered by many journalists including Ross. But they paled in comparison to the mess that is the MTM. Almost every promise – from the speeds to the time it would be completed to the cost – have all been broken. Imagine if the public at large knew all this before the 2013 election. The ABC had a duty to cut through the bullshit, like it has done on so many other subjects, from Domestic Violence to Problem Gambling.

    In that case, it has failed.

    Read more: http://www.pcauthority.com.au/News/414038,the-plot-thickens-in-the-abcs-nbn-lack-of-coverage.aspx#ixzz3xxQaiErj

  34. The ABC had a duty to cut through the bullshit, like it has done on so many other subjects, from Domestic Violence to Problem Gambling.

    In that case, it has failed.

    Good article from PC Authority. Pretty much tells it like it is on the NBN.

    And one very good point they make that the Libs will HATE:

    I fundamentally disagree that technology reporting is the same as reporting on social issues or current affairs. In many cases, a technical plan is either good or bad. It’s not generally subjective.

  35. @Airlines

    Yes it is the same result, perhaps slight movement to Labor even. I am just disappointed more people can’t see that last 2+ years this country has been governed very poorly and very little has changed since Abbot’s demise. I must say I am bit pissed off that future of our society is in hands of a large chunk of swinging voters who have no idea what the hell is happening around them.

  37. I used the singular “problem” in my earlier comment, because I figured the posting-too-fast thing wasn’t going anywhere. A complete design overhaul is imminent at Crikey – when that happens, I expect all the problems will disappear, and a new set will take their place.

  41. Good ole Turnbull and his anti-worker Liberal/right wing

    The case before the Federal Court in Perth against 101 workers charged with attending a union meeting has descended into a complete farce.

    Just prior to Christmas, 5 workers had their cases withdrawn due to ‘lack of evidence.’ Now that number has increased by a further 28 cases to a total of 33, also due to lack of evidence

  42. William

    I used the singular “problem” in my earlier comment, because I figured the posting-too-fast thing wasn’t going anywhere. A complete design overhaul is imminent at Crikey – when that happens, I expect all the problems will disappear, and a new set will take their place.

    *laughs*

  44. imacca

    Seems odd the Yanks would want a forward airfield there as they can base in Iraq proper

    So the Kurdish ground forces can also occupy the airfield as a base where the Russian won’t attack them?

  45. In the absence of any evidence suggesting Nick Ross has a polticsl barrow to push, he appears to be most concerned with the technical specifications & performance of the NBN.

    If this is correct, I don’t see much reason (particularly based on the evidence of the tape) to dispute either his version of events nor his reasoning.

    Given also that we know that the Coalition has been placing significant pressure on the ABC, it seems reasonable too to accept Ross’ argument that he was advised to ‘balance’ his articles to please a political audience rather than provide objective fact.

    If the above logic is incorrect, I would look forward to some objective writing in the msm to disabuse my mistaken belief.

  46. The legality angle is quite irrelevant, we see reports of crimes all the time. He gets charged he goes to jail, he gets charged he gets off he doesn’t get charged probably matters to him but not to us or the real issues.

    I don’t know why crikey hates Ross and I’m not a subscriber currently, have been in past, but would subscribe to New Matilda rather than crikey unless that article I haven’t seen is brilliant.

  47. If the above logic is incorrect, I would look forward to some objective writing in the msm to disabuse my mistaken belief.

    Looks pretty correct to me.

    Seems his biggest crime is caring more about letting the public know all the facts than his career, clearly not a mistake others are prepared to make.

    As I said I cant read crikey and have no idea how they’d be anti-Ross but it seems they are.

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