BludgerTrack is back in action following poll results last week from Roy Morgan and this week from Essential Research. The only movement it records is from the Greens to Labor, with two-party preferred all but unchanged, and a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Victoria balanced out by a loss in South Australia. Given the gap in the time series, the model is highly sensitive to the latest data points, so I’d await confirmation from further polling before I read anything into what little movement has been recorded. For similar reasons, I haven’t updated the leadership ratings despite there being a new result this week from Essential Research.
An early morning all. Appreciate William’s comments that it is too early to assume any new trend. But no change to the status quo means easy reelection for Turnbull in 2016. With trials of at least one former Labor minister due to start in NSW this year, I see no prospect for improvement or Labor victory without a dramatic error by Turnbull, or distancing of the links between Labor and unions. An improved focus on the need for equitable tax reform and better public investment would help too, though I do not see Shorten as a leader capable of articulating that message.
Meanwhile these two headlines should disqualify Clive Palmer from public office.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-20/clive-palmer-queensland-nickel-refinery-yabulu-clean-up-bill/7100932?WT.ac=statenews_qld
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-20/government-offers-queensland-nickel-workers-$500,000/7101876?WT.ac=statenews_qld
Clive treated Qld Nickel as his personal piggy bank. He should be held accountable. For that matter so should the Qld mines department, having once again failed to make a miner rehabilitate a mine site until far too late. The prospect of recession, the one Joe Hockey decided we had to have, is growing quite real. Have a good day all.
Calling them ‘backroom boys’ is supposed to give them some sort of credibility. People still see them for they are are…the faceless face men.
Abbott’s ‘We are not the Labor Party’ is proving more and more to be just another piece of lying propaganda
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/right-is-wrong-in-liberal-faction-war-lobbyists-doing-political-deals-over-preselection/news-story/7bbc50988a8f4931d088f093cdcaaf4a
Oh lulz.
‘ The only movement it records is from the Greens to Labor’
Look, if Turnbull wins the election this year he is going to have so much lead in his saddlebags, in the form of dead wood dinosaurs and factional in-fighting, that his victory will be one that ensures that the superior team in the Labor Party really cement in their economic credentials over the next 3 years, as well as their policy superiority.
Then they will also have had plenty of time to convince the sceptics in the electorate who still believe the propaganda from the mainstream media machine whose default position is to support the party that represents their class. I include the ABC in this.
I really am unable to see 3 more years of Malcolm Turnbull, and all that suggests in the prospect and which we have dissected since the Liberal Messiah’s resurrection, really being that impressive. I think a damp squib is able to do better. His rhetoric is pedestrian rather than soaring. His speech patterns are irritating and his answers to questions, when he is around to answer them, are as verbose as Kevin Rudd’s, who also loved the sound of his own voice. Who loved himself and thought he was god’s gift to the nation the same way Malcolm does. On the other hand, Kevin actually achieved great things, such as his response to the GFC. Let’s see how Malcolm goes, if re-elected, with GFC 2.0
Actually, this election might be a case of, if Labor lose, then it’s not as bad a thing as it may have been because Malcolm will be left holding the baby. Then we’ll see how ‘agile’ he truly is.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
John Massola tells nothing we don’t know about Abbott’s political future.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-told-forestville-branch-he-wanted-to-stay-in-politics-back-in-december–20160120-gma25y.html
This radical Islamic preacher is a good looking guy! With modern ubiquitous communication it’s difficult to counter clowns like this.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/british-extremist-abu-haleema-turns-to-australia-20160120-gma1zc.html
Come on Michaelia. Do something about this scandalous behaviour.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/sydney-restaurants-seek-workers-for-10-an-hour-20160120-gma52k.html
Tennis player Joe Wilfred Tsonga does the right thing to help a struggling ball girl.
http://media.smh.com.au/video-sport/video-tennis/tsonga-stops-play-to-help-ballgirl-7153112.html
Sydney’s light rail service is proving to be very popular.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/commuter-crush-more-trams-needed-to-cope-with-surge-in-light-rail-demand-20160120-gm9vse.html
More non-existent tensions between non-existent factions.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-councillors-attack-on-malcolm-turnbull-inflames-factional-tensions-20160119-gm9n3n.html
These two are just MADE for each other!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajers-wife-aysha-to-face-court-over-noncompliant-mercedes-20160119-gm9n3w.html
Tim Wilson decides against running as a Liberal Senate candidate and now he comes out with THIS!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/20/tim-wilson-government-should-apologise-over-sacked-nauru-save-the-children-staff
Bob Ellis on the dilemma facing Turnbull this year with foreign policy announcements.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbulls-dilemma,8593
How gentrification is diving Australian schools.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/gentrification-is-dividing-australian-schools,8595
Section 2 . . .
Does our solar system have another planet?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/new-planet-discovered_us_569fbf96e4b0875553c28ac0?section=australia&utm_hp_ref=australia
Jay Weatherill does the right thing.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-authorities-refuse-to-recognise-samesex-marriage-of-man-who-died-on-honeymoon-20160120-gma1l4.html
Is it possible that Dick Smith would be a shoe in if he stands as an independent against Bronny?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dick-smith-eyes-bid-to-unseat-bronwyn-bishop-20160120-gma385.html
George Brandis – champion of open and transparent government!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/attorneygeneral-george-brandis-appeals-decision-on-access-to-his-diary-20160120-gm9q2q.html
The Australian reports that Clive Palmer exercised some very questionable manoeuvres just four days before Queensland Nickel announced it was going into voluntary administration. (copy and paste the following string into a Google search to get there).
news/investigations/clive-palmer/clive-palmer-firms-jump-queue-of-creditors-for-queensland-nickel/news-story/c621055eafad068ab1bda22aa337ef4d
Elizabeth Farrelly writes that Trump and ISIS are two sides of the same (ignorant) coin. A very good article.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-trump-and-islamic-state-are-two-sides-of-the-same-ignorant-coin-20160120-gm9qq7.html
Idiot Sarah Palin’s “speech” is dissected in this article in the Huffington Post.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/sarah-palin-quotes-trump_us_569ed3b5e4b04c813761f583?section=australia&utm_hp_ref=politics
Here’s Bob Ellis’s take on the Trump/Palin phenomenon.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2016/01/21/trump-observed/
What the search for MH370 has found so far.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/01/20/mh370-search-uncovered-far/
The ineptitude of Woolworths has been on full display in recent times.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/woolworths-celebrates-australia-day-by-erasing-tasmania-20160120-gm9wdk.html
How private equity leeches strut their odious stuff.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/private-equitys-role-in-the-dick-smith-saga-hardly-serves-the-public-interest-20160119-gm9mpb.html
Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding – piffle vs waffle.
A ripper about Liberal Party preselections from Pat Campbell.
I don’t know what the Herald Sun’s cartoonist Macca is alluding to here.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/cdfc3fd6a5350c79a67813f8bfebd6bb?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
Jon Kudelka has Palmer giving some soothing words to his sacked employees.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1adc669093b73e1a9b47f05248d64436
Scary work from David Rowe as he takes us on Trump’s campaign trail with idiot Sarah Palin.
Is this the plastic century?
[The world of plastics is in drastic need of reform. This is the conclusion of a new report released at Davos by the World Economics Forum, the Ellen MacArthur Foundation and consultancy firm McKinsey.
*The plastics industry uses as much oil as the aviation sector
*One truck of plastic waste is dumped into the ocean every minute. At present this adds up to more than 150m tonnes of plastics in the ocean, and by 2050 the weight of plastic is likely to outweigh that of fish.
*Plastics use is expected to quadruple by 2050. 95% of the material value of plastic packaging – worth as much as $120bn (£84bn) annually – is lost to the economy after a short first use.
*Just 5% of plastic packaging is recycled]
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jan/20/from-oil-use-to-ocean-pollution-five-facts-about-the-plastics-industry
From that article about Mamak restaurant in Sydney underpaying it’s workers we see the head of ‘Restaurant and Catering Australia’ (just another Employers’ Union entwined with the Liberal Party), coming out with the latest line which they have cooked up to get rid of Sunday, and now Public Holiday, Penalty Rates:
‘ But John Hart of Restaurant and Catering Australia said it was wrong to state one single minimum rate for a foodservice job as the pay structure was very complex.
He said the “absolute majority” of members complied with the law. If they were found to have breached the law, in most cases, it was by accident.
“Overwhelmingly they didn’t know they’re doing the wrong thing. It’s the complexity of the system and the lack of clarity that leads to non-compliance,” he said.
He said, ‘it was wrong to state one single minimum rate for a foodservice job’ Wrong. There is a base rate of pay, and then you calculate to final figure starting from there. It is a perfectly valid figure to quote, especially if it is too low. However, if you only want to pay one figure then you say things like that. Anyway, isn’t there a computer program that automatically calculates pay? So what’s so hard and complex?
It’s just the latest line from the Get Rid of Penalty Rates and Pay the Same for Saturday, Sunday and Public Holidays’ crowd.
Complex my bum! Greedy more like.
From that article about Mamak restaurant in Sydney underpaying it’s workers we see the head of ‘Restaurant and Catering Australia’ (just another Employers’ Union entwined with the Liberal Party), coming out with the latest line which they have cooked up to get rid of Sunday, and now Public Holiday, Penalty Rates:
‘ But John Hart of Restaurant and Catering Australia said it was wrong to state one single minimum rate for a foodservice job as the pay structure was very complex.
He said the “absolute majority” of members complied with the law. If they were found to have breached the law, in most cases, it was by accident.
“Overwhelmingly they didn’t know they’re doing the wrong thing. It’s the complexity of the system and the lack of clarity that leads to non-compliance,” he said.
He said, ‘it was wrong to state one single minimum rate for a foodservice job’ Wrong. There is a base rate of pay, and then you calculate to final figure starting from there. It is a perfectly valid figure to quote, especially if it is too low. However, if you only want to pay one figure then you say things like that. Anyway, isn’t there a computer program that automatically calculates pay? So what’s so hard and complex?
It’s just the latest line from the Get Rid of Penalty Rates and Pay the Same for Saturday, Sunday and Public Holidays’ crowd.
Complex my bum! Greedy more like.
BK, thanks as always
Re:
[I don’t know what the Herald Sun’s cartoonist Macca is alluding to here.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/cdfc3fd6a5350c79a67813f8bfebd6bb?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5%5D
It’s not very funny at all. But I think what the cartoonist was getting at was that Hewitt’s first round opponent at the Australian Open was another Australian, James Duckworth, who had been mentored by Hewitt. As it was Hewitt’s last Australian Open the crowd were hoping he would progress. Overlaid is the match fixing allegations in tennis. I think the cartoonist was suggesting that the crowd paying to see Hewitt win also involved Duckworth letting him win.
A bit snide in my view.
From C@t’s post at 10
[He said the “absolute majority” of members complied with the law. If they were found to have breached the law, in most cases, it was by accident.]
Unlike the expression ‘vast majority’, which does mean close to almost all, an ‘absolute majority’, as any denizen of a psephological site can attest, means nothing more than a number over half. Mr Hart could be saying, that as many as 49.999999% of employers are NOT complying with the law.
Penalty rates; Any business that intends to be open 7 days a week including public holidays should know what its costs will be.
Calculating the cost of wages is no different to calculating the cost of rent/power, licences etc.
Power/rent/licences are all calculated for the 365 day opening and these costs added to the price of the goods sold.
You would have to be a real numb-nut not to have as part of the business plan the cost of wages to operate 365 days a year and factor that into the price of the goods being sold.
Do these so-called business people also fail to account for the cost of any annual leave etc when looking at the price schedule and then cry poor when any employee takes their leave entitlement?
TPOF
That’s what I thought.
Further to C@t’s post at 10, I don’t see how paying well BELOW the base rate can be an accident caused by the alleged complexity of pay rates. But it is a pretty sleazy thing to do to turn a serious allegation of intentional ripping off basic pay from workers into an attack on penalty rates at the other end of the spectrum.
An absolute majority is 50% + 1 rounded. So an ‘absolute majority’ of, say, 251 employers, would be 126, with up to 125 not complying.
Morning all. This is ominous.
[World Meteorological Organization
3 hrs ·
Land and ocean heat records smashed in 2015, says NOAA, NASA, and UK’s Met Office. WMO will combined these three datasets with reanalysis data to issue its final global temperature figure for 2015. Watch this space http://goo.gl/acGTTK ]
https://www.facebook.com/71741701887/photos/a.372804996887.156450.71741701887/10153536301066888/?type=3&theater
The guy is the usual employer group numpty, but let’s not get caught up on pedantic language usage.
“Absolute” is a commonly used way of adding emphasis. “Absolute triumph” “absolute disaster” etc.
C@tmomma
Re caterers mob.
[He said the “absolute majority” of members complied with the law. If they were found to have breached the law, in most cases, it was by accident.]
😆 50.01% is an “absolute majority” and damned right if they are “found to have breached the law” their being caught “was by accident”.
My husband plays indoor soccer regularly with a bunch of professional types, most of whom run their own businesses. He has asked them whether they calculate the cost of their workers on a daily rate, a weekly rate or a yearly rate, when they’re determining their profits.
Noone works on anything other than an annual rate.
It’s standard practice. You sit down, work out the costs you’re going to incur for the year, and then work out what you need to be turning over and how much you need to be charging to cover those costs and make a profit.
Any business which is operating on the basis most of those lobbying for decreased penalty rates would have us believe (“Oh, I thought I was going OK this week, but then I opened Sunday and unexpectedly found that I had to pay my workers more, and it wiped out all my profit”) shouldn’t be in the game.
Instead of lobbying for decreased penalty rates, the industry body would be better off providing basic business training for these benighted souls – and even better off telling them very bluntly that they shouldn’t be in business.
Good Morning
An interesting story in the Australian today for those that want to look at it. The reporter is claiming the upcoming ICAC report into Arthur Sinodinos clears him of all wrong doing.
Jackol @ 19
I think we all realise that is what was intended. It’s just that this guy is throwing around language without thinking of its precise meaning because he is more concerned with executing his political sleight of hand than with the actual issue.
And how often do professional and business organisations seek to convince us that every time a major transgression is revealed it is only one bad apple, etc, despite repeated cases (e.g. financial advisers). but unions are ‘the tip of the iceberg’ based on no evidence whatsoever.
PvO on the NSW Liberals. Looks a right mess to be honest.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/liberals-play-game-of-thrones-nsw-liberals-play-game-of-thrones/news-story/8d6c94ab8b3190870ce8bce257c22fc5
climatecouncil: 2015 smashes record for #HottestYear, final figures confirm https://t.co/sPzvpHvM2y via @guardian #climatechange https://t.co/t2ekRTFwa0
TPOF –
My point is criticize the substance of what he said (which is problematic enough); going (in my view incorrectly) the details of the words he chose is not useful in my opinion.
See, I actually think his language was fine. It doesn’t have the “precise meaning” being asserted by a few bludgers above because it doesn’t fit the context. “Absolute majority”, as being nit-picked here, is only a pseph term, and it’s used to distinguish between “simple majority” (where there are absentees or abstentions) and “absolute majority” which is measured against the complete population.
It doesn’t make sense to use this distinction in the context the guy quoted was using it – he was just using absolute as emphasis.
But fine, if people want to quibble over the small stuff and let the argument sink under the weight of triviality rather than concentrating on what actually matters, go ahead.
[Instead of lobbying for decreased penalty rates, the industry body would be better off providing basic business training for these benighted souls – and even better off telling them very bluntly that they shouldn’t be in business.]
Well said.
They never talk about the poor business planning that is the demise of so many small businesses. They ignore basics like location. Locally a third Chinese eatery opened within walking distance of one that was already very well known, had a good reputation and regular customers. The new one closed within months blaming high wages costs.
To me, it showed poor business planning, the location to begin with, then just cooking up the same meals and not offering a new or different experience was its demise.
That article reads like a tale of incest with wives and other family members of sitting MP’s staffers being preferred for preselection over newbies and others with genuine talent. And throw in Abbott letting his bitterness intervene for good measure, the NSW Liberals appear to be a total mess!
MayneReport: Hey @SharriMarkson, thinks it’s more a case of “court removes ICAC jurisdiction” rather than “ICAC clears Sinodinos” https://t.co/NqiWkaZRta
SUSC
and it isn’t hard. I often drive by new businesses in our town, and say to my kids, “Pity, that’ll close in a few months” – because I know the size of the town and what it can support.
The small business I established there – never a big money maker – is still in operation twenty years later! I did my research, worked out that it met a need, knew what I needed to take in each week to make a profit, and charged accordingly.
Thanks BK
BernardKeane: But @GregHuntMP gleefully signed off on Carmichael anyway https://t.co/04lBvVpQ75
Funny how people forget that BHP was going to close the nickel refinery until Palmer bought it.
[Palmer buys Townsville BHP refinery
Updated 3 Jul 2009, 3:28pm
Clive Palmer has bought the Yabulu nickel refinery in Townsville.
The Yabulu nickel refinery in Townsville in north Queensland has been sold to mining magnate Clive Palmer.
BHP Billiton scaled back operations at the Yabulu Refinery in January, prompting fears that it might close.
The refinery employs 950 workers.
BHP’s president of the stainless steel division, Jimmy Wilson, says Yabulu has been sold to Queensland mining figure Clive Palmer for an undisclosed amount with the promise of keeping the refinery open]
Sinnodinis was never suspected of corrupt conduct by ICAC so any so-called clearance is of no consequence.
He may nevertheless be criticised for his conduct such that a headline confirming that he had been notified by ICAC that there would be no criticism would be of some moment.
[ Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Posted Thursday, January 21, 2016 at 8:51 am | Permalink
…Locally a third Chinese eatery opened within walking distance of one that was already very well known, had a good reputation and regular customers. The new one closed within months blaming high wages costs.
To me, it showed poor business planning, the location to begin with, then just cooking up the same meals and not offering a new or different experience was its demise. ]
Its in Sydney’s Chinatown area – so a hundred or more Chinese restaurants etc in the immediate area – offering pretty similar food overall but with some variations.
I’m not sure why you would sack a substantial percentage of your workforce just before you put your company into voluntary administration. Why not leave it to the administrator ?
morning bludgers
The global economic outlook is looking decidedly shaky. What is Agile Turnbull have in mind for Oz apart from GST increase and cuts to medicare.
On Sinodinos.
ICAC cannot make a finding of corruption against him because he was not a “public official”.
They have called for further submissions and may still make a finding of misconduct as a company director.
So as usual ignore headlines in The Australian.
No surprise that Tony Kelly is up for another ICAC corruption gong. Where did the NSW ALP get a bloke like him from?
Confessions
That NSW lib stuff sounds like NSW politics in general. Factional splitting, stacking, seals and extreme bitterness seems part of the political culture.
So the Libs in NSW have three factions, which seem in many ways to reflect the same three in the ALP.
On the far right you have the extrmelely socially conservative, RWMJ, who are really the DLP without the union nexus. Now there is a solid group in the ALP who essentially share this outlook on social issues, but are probably more progressive on economic issues and especially IR. The SDA and people lioke Joe Bullock are the group I am thinking of. They are the labor extreme right.
[further submissions and may still make a finding of misconduct as a company director.]
No that won’t happen. ICAC don’t have the jurisdiction because that is a federal matter and in any event it is never been suggested that they would do that.
shellbell@34
Plus he made a spectacle of himself with his “I don’t recalls” etc – for a person with a name as a ‘details’ man –
[ Artful dodger Sinodinos says he has no memory of individual funds
Neil Chenoweth
Arthur Sinodinos has always had one of the more supple political minds of his generation – no yoga position too hard to hold, no hesitation in folding his head around another anatomically implausible position.
But time slows us all. There was ¬disquieting talk before his appearance at the Independent Commission Against Corruption on Friday that his best work might be behind him. But the Artful Dodger was up to the task.
This was his challenge: in February 2013 when he was first asked about donations in 2010, he told The Australian Financial Review he knew nothing.
Zero.
Not a whisper.
Nada.
On the donations front, his knowledge was a tabula rasa. “I have no recollection of individual donations and am unable to speculate about the motivation of third parties making donations,” Senator Sinodinos told the Financial Review.
As a gymnastic tour de force, it was always going to be hard to beat.
Sinodinos could be chairman of an arguably insolvent company (Austra¬lian Water Holdings) which never¬theless gave $56,000 to the Liberal Party, where he was chairman of the finance committee. And he knew ¬nothing about it.
How to top that? It was too easy.
It all went over Sinodinos’s head
On Friday, he told ICAC that it wasn’t just AWH’s donations he was unaware of, he also knew nothing of the state party’s biggest donor, the Free Enterprise Foundation.
The FEF forwarded $700,000 it had received from prohibited donors to the state Liberals, but Sinodinos didn’t know this. He had chaired the finance committee, helped draw up lists of donors to approach ( including property developers), had been copied in to emails that referred to funds for the NSW federal campaign going through the FEF, and had chaired committee meetings where the FEF was discussed.
It all went over his head.
But the most intriguing thread has been the Canberra-based Free Enterprise Foundation, which Senator ¬Sinodinos has said he never heard of, but which at least six other members of the Liberal state executive appeared to have been involved with in some form.
The MPs on the crossbench faced individual allegations in their own ¬election campaigns.]
http://www.afr.com/p/national/artful_dodger_sinodinos_says_funds_BMFICgwaY2vHsV6tFgRzoI
I do like the reference to Sinodinos as an artful dodger. 🙂
Confessions
Sorry posted by itself
That NSW lib stuff sounds like NSW politics in general. Factional splitting, stacking, seals and extreme bitterness seems part of the political culture.
So the Libs in NSW have three factions, which seem in many ways to reflect the same three in the ALP.
On the far right you have the extrmely socially conservative, RWMJ, who are really the DLP without the union nexus. Now there is a solid group in the ALP who essentially share this outlook on social issues, but are probably more progressive on economic issues and especially IR. The SDA and people like Joe Bullock are the group I am thinking of. They are the labor extreme right. There are not too many of them these days, however their younger and more progressive grouping has morphed into the labor Right, with people like Burke, and Conroy and most of the Susses st mob part of this group.
The Alex Hawke mob seem to be highly pragmatic and “flexible.” occupying centre ground, their ALP equivalent would be the AWU faction.
The moderates seem roughly equivlalent to the ALP moderate left eg Tanya P or Penny Wong.
So it is as if you have the same three groupings along the social policy spectrum but with a split between labor and liberals largely along econonomic/IR lines.
Of course this is a bit unfair to the ALP given that most of the extrem RW socially conservative types have now drifted aaway.
victoria:
Right now I can guarantee Turnbull isn’t thinking about the economy!
https://www.facebook.com/malcolmturnbull/photos/a.121419221578.123742.53772921578/10153957327466579/?type=3&theater
This sums up Sinodinos in a nutshell
[Hanging Wif KoolKids
Hanging Wif KoolKids – @geeksrulz
Despite being effectively the donor and the recipient, Sinodinos has claimed he cannot remember the AWH donations #AWH #ICAC #auspol
1:15 PM – 20 Jan 2016
4 RETWEETS1 LIKE]
zoomster
You were spot on with your comments on the management accounting skills of the small business serial whingers.
DTT:
The argy bargy over the preselections and renewal looks like a dog’s breakfast. I think at some point Turnbull is going to have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.
Alan Moir and Advance Australia Where?
fess
The markets are copping a belting, and there is lots of chatter about another 2007. I have no faith in Truffles and Co being prepared for anything whatsoever