Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slight movement to Labor in Essential Research’s first poll for the year, which also finds that Labor and Coalition voters feel almost exactly the same way about the US presidential election.

Essential Research has opened its account for 2016 with a poll that records a one-point shift away from the Coalition off what was already a very low base for them, relative to the other pollsters. Compared with the last poll in mid-December, the Coalition is down a point to 44%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 35% and 10%. This being the first result of the year, the result encompasses 1011 respondents polled from Friday to Monday, rather than Essential’s usual two-week rolling average. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings for the leaders, which find Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 51% and up two on disapproval to 25%, while Bill Shorten is exactly unchanged at 27% and 47% respectively. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 54-15 to 51-18.

The poll also has a straightforward question on favoured candidate to win the US presidential elections, offering four named options: Hillary Clinton on 40%, Donald Trump on 12%, Bernie Sanders on 6% and Ted Cruz on 2%, leaving 8% for “someone else” and 32% for “don’t know”. Remarkably, breakdowns by party support show statistically identical results for Labor and Coalition supporters (but nearly ten times as much support for Sanders among Greens voters). Further questions find consistent agreement that sexism and discrimination against women exists to at least some extent in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (from 58% to 62% opting for a lot or some), but less so in schools, where 44% opted for a lot or some, and 41% for a little or none.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. ABC’s PM program when PM Rudd visited the US:
    Well he’s barely left Australian shores but Kevin Rudd is on the defensive over just how long he’ll be away. http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2202209.htm

    ABC’s PM program when PM Turnbull visited the US:
    Ageing Japanese ‘boy band’ stages televised apology for trying to break up http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-20/japan-relieved-at-the-news-boyband-smap-will-stay-together/7101792

  2. I had missed this

    [The Australian Taxation Office has been quietly sending some of its work to the Philippines for several months as the Australian Public Service moves closer to operating in Asia on a large scale.
    The office insists the offshore “application development” by outsourcing giant Accenture is done in a secure facility and that no data on taxpayers is being sent to Manila.
    But the main public service union says the ATO is taking unacceptable risks by moving any of its work overseas.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/public-service/manila-calling-public-services-philippines-frolic-revealed-20160119-gm8y3r.html#ixzz3xmWxEMgs
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  3. 2016 is the Year of Opportunity and looking back I see I am wasting a good part of my time/life in here arguing against people who will never change their opinions, nor their minds, despite being inundated with evidence and facts.

    As a result this year I have decided that a majority of my time will be much better spent out in the real world smelling the flowers, getting some rays and enjoying life at it’s fullest rather than sitting in here debating with idiots.

  4. TBA @ 658: “if a Clod bee washed away by the Sea, Europe is the lesse, as well as if a Promontorie were, as well as if a Mannor of thy friends or of thine owne were;”.

  5. TBA

    [arguing against people who will never change their opinions, nor their minds, despite being inundated with evidence and facts.]
    We know just how that feels 😉 Enjoy your agile and innovative sabbatical.

  6. [I am wasting a good part of my time/life in here arguing against people who will never change their opinions, nor their minds, despite being inundated with evidence and facts.]

    Words truly fail me…

  7. To be fair to TBA he’s at least choosing the responsible option ie he knows that his abuse of those who disagree with him is falling on deaf ears and he’s decided to retreat.

    There are other PBers like him who have routinely abused other commenters who could have a similar come to jesus moment and do likewise.

  8. Just before you go, TBA, would you like to give us an index of all the posts where you’ve given us “evidence and facts” so we can mull over them in your absence?

  9. The ABC’s contribution to our national life goes beyond its news and current affairs output. Despite the rightly maligned decline in rigour in news and currency affairs, the ABC still produces some gems. Background Briefing on ABC Radio National. Certain episodes of Four Corners. Landline. Documentaries.

    The problems stem from the attitudes of ABC managers. They have absorbed the pernicious view that impartiality means ‘he said, she said’ stenography that sheds no light on the issues raised. They slather conservatives with oil because conservatives are the squeakiest wheel among the ABC’s critics. The solution is simple: non-Coalition governments have to make no bones about the need to change the ABC’s managerial direction. Deadwood needs to be removed. People with a wide frame of reference and superb capacity to investigate public affairs with depth and rigour must be given preference over the time-servers who appease conservative critics and who infest the ABC at present. The values of public broadcasting need to be described and defended by non-Coalition parties, non-government stakeholders, and ABC senior managers. Conservatives will scream, but then they always do that. Look at this this way. When a non-Coalition group gains power, they don’t put their stamp on the public broadcaster. They don’t assert and implement their vision of public broadcasting. They think that would be bad form. But Coalition governments are relentless in putting their stamp on the ABC. They want to undermine the ABC as a genuine alternative to lazy commercial broadcasting. If only one side stands up for what they believe, that side wins. Non-Labor governments can’t afford to be squeamish about changing the ABC in their preferred direction. A public broadcaster is not supposed to ape commercial broadcasters. It is supposed to be something that conservatives find uncomfortable.

  10. TBA

    I think you view of the world is weird; but I have been impressed by your ability to not return serve when abused.

    Good luck with the roses. Can I suggest a trip to Greenland; watching the ice melt; is a sobering experience.

  11. Just watched Bridge of Spies, my movie of the year so far but yet to see Spotlight and Joy. Mark Roylance must be a shoe in for best supporting actor at the Oscars, a captivating performance as the unarchetypal Russian spy

  12. confessions@665

    To be fair to TBA he’s at least choosing the responsible option ie he knows that his abuse of those who disagree with him is falling on deaf ears and he’s decided to retreat.

    There are other PBers like him who have routinely abused other commenters who could have a similar come to jesus moment and do likewise.

    Oh. So we can expect you to be leaving like markjs did?

  13. [ would you like to give us an index of all the posts where you’ve given us “evidence and facts ]

    You are a collector very short lists then Jack A Randa??

  14. I would not presume to think I could change anyone’s mind here but Oh My God am I going to enjoy the first few days after the next federal election. I feel a shiver with Anticip…………..pation

  15. Following Beazley with Hockey is like following a glass of fine wine with kero.

    If Labor appointed such a failed buffoon to such an important role there would be media outrage and a royal commission.

  16. Agreed frednk @673 and davidwh @677, TBA was never abusive, and better than a competition to see who gets the last word on Gillard and Rudd. (Also known as the most tedious poster competition.)

  17. [
    [
    Steelydan
    Posted Thursday, January 21, 2016 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    I would not presume to think I could change anyone’s mind here but Oh My God am I going to enjoy the first few days after the next federal election. I feel a shiver with Anticip…………..pation
    ]
    You think Mal is going to be able to keep the Mad right under control to the next election? If the polls narrow (which they will) it is all going to get very ugly; and if Labor pull ahead again; what then?

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