BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Coalition

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back for the new year with something less than a bang.

BludgerTrack is back in action following poll results last week from Roy Morgan and this week from Essential Research. The only movement it records is from the Greens to Labor, with two-party preferred all but unchanged, and a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Victoria balanced out by a loss in South Australia. Given the gap in the time series, the model is highly sensitive to the latest data points, so I’d await confirmation from further polling before I read anything into what little movement has been recorded. For similar reasons, I haven’t updated the leadership ratings despite there being a new result this week from Essential Research.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Coalition”

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  1. [The people of Manus will stage a rally today urging the Papua New Guinea government to address their concerns over the operation of the Australian-run immigration detention centre on the island.

    Roads that the Australian government promised to fix are one major grievance, while another centres on claims that refugees allowed to settle on Manus are causing trouble for the community.

    And local MP Ronny Knight says these are concerns that could provoke violence if they’re ignored any longer.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-22/manus-islanders-set-to-protest-over-impact-of/7107064

  2. MTBW@384

    lizzie

    James A Carleton is the son of the late Richard Carleton I am not sure he would be of the Right.

    I certainly don’t think he is and have seen no evidence to suggest it.

    I once spoke to him on the phone trying to locate a story I had heard on the radio. He was exceptionally polite and went out of his way to help.

  3. guytaur@397

    lizzie

    Yeah I posted that and it reverted back to the bad service.

    I agree while it is being fixed they should just revert to previous incarnation.

    TPOF

    It does seem that way. However it does acknowledge Labor argument that Optic Fibre is superior.

    Fibre Optic has been in use in Australia for trunk routes for decades. This does not constitute acknowledgement of anything other than the capacity of those routes has been upgraded in the normal manner.

  4. TPOF – Totally agree. Imagine Latham at the time of the US Civil War: “Well we’ve had slavery for a long time, so why do anything about it now …” What a tool.

  5. This has gone from bad to worse and I am no longer able to get beyond post 184.

    It is a pity William won’t allow criticism of the Crikey tech people or I would give vent to my feelings.

  6. According to the Herald, Morrison has been advocating an early election (unsuccessfully). That’s not surprising. He’d the one who’ll have to tap-dance while floor collapses.

  7. Thanks to the crikey gerbils

    Anyhoo in the daily tele

    [Those investigative geniuses at New Matilda believe they’ve found a smoking gun in the saga of Nick Ross, a former ABC technology editor who left the broadcaster amid claims he’d been silenced over his coverage of the Coalition’s NBN plans.

    And they have found a smoking gun – mainly because such a weapon is difficult to ignore when it’s pointed squarely at your own feet. In attempting to reveal ABC capitulation to the Coalition, New Matilda publisher and editor Chris Graham, contributing editor Wendy Bacon, journalist Thom Mitchell and columnist Ben Eltham have instead exposed Ross and their own publication to potentially massive legal danger.]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/leftists_attack_abc_endanger_themselves/

  8. Bemused

    Facts don’t change. Physics of Fibre is fact. Only LNP trying to assert otherwise.

    ABC acknowledged this fact reporting the truth about Queensland. Despite apparently telling Ross to lie to people and thus Newspeak style obscure the truth.

  9. [ Matilda ……. have instead exposed Ross and their own publication to potentially massive legal danger. ]

    Doubt they have any money worth suing for.

    A court case could drag all of the detail alleged out into the mainstream and give it a good airing.

  10. Totally unable to access the site for some hours, hoped that meant it was down for maitenance!

    I was forced to do housework. Is there someone I can sue for mental suffering?

  11. Crikey must be the only organisation in the world that targets itself for denial of service attacks.

    Then routinely lies to posters about posting too fast.

    Then fails to deliver to subscribers from time-to-time without bothering to explain same.

    Then, in the midst of digital chaos, offers an Australia Day special offer to re-subscribe …

  12. guytaur@416

    Bemused

    Facts don’t change. Physics of Fibre is fact. Only LNP trying to assert otherwise.

    ABC acknowledged this fact reporting the truth about Queensland. Despite apparently telling Ross to lie to people and thus Newspeak style obscure the truth.

    What on earth are you on about?

  13. dave

    Agreed. Although Ben Eltham from New Matilda has said via twitter conversations that they have had extensive legal advice

    [Ancestors
    Show full conversation
    Elizabeth Marr
    19m19 minutes ago
    Elizabeth Marr ‏@JmarrMarr
    @Biggy1883 @krONik @jocksjug @NickRossTech What we need to know is; what #LibMates benefitted from the LNP Fraudband financially??]

    [Nick Ross
    Nick Ross – ‏@NickRossTech

    @JmarrMarr @Biggy1883 @krONik @jocksjug not doing politics. Obvious beneficiaries are Telstra and Foxtel. That’s all we know for sure.]

  14. bemused

    Facts trump all else. Just because they have been around for ages does not change they are facts.

    The whole Ross story is about the ABC wanting to tell lies to the public to insure itself against attacks from the LNP

  15. guytaur@424

    bemused

    Facts trump all else. Just because they have been around for ages does not change they are facts.

    The whole Ross story is about the ABC wanting to tell lies to the public to insure itself against attacks from the LNP

    Who are you arguing with?

  16. The suggestion that James Carleton, or even his father Richard, were in any way on the political Right is way wrong.

    In occasional appearances on the Drum, James has come across as a “heart on his sleeve” sort of guy on issues like boat people, climate change, feminism and Aborigines. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to hear that he votes Green.

    His father Richard Carleton was tough on everyone, but he always hung out with a pretty Whitlamite bunch of journos and similar types, as well as Labor apparatchiks like Bob Hogg. He came from an era in which it just wasn’t done for ABC journos to be Liberals.

    Sure, he got a fair bit wealthier when he went to work for Kerry Packer. But even on 60 Minutes he took a pretty tough line on some issues, particularly in Israel on issues like West Bank settlements, where he became a bit of a target for attack from the Australian Jewish lobby. And this was despite the fact that, I believe that he might actually have been born into a Jewish family: certainly his first wife Susie, James’s mother, was Jewish, but I’m not 100% certain Richard was. (As an adult, Richard made a bit of a song and dance about being an atheist).

    On the whole, I think Richard Carleton was a pretty good journo. Sure, there was some aggro there, but it was always backed up by some research and analysis. It wasn’t just reflexive aggro like several subsequent ABC journos have liked to engage in.

  17. Good piece

    [rather than breaking down the flaws in their technical argument was doing the public a disservice. Yes, there were problems with Labor’s plan. They were noted and covered by many journalists including Ross. But they paled in comparison to the mess that is the MTM. Almost every promise – from the speeds to the time it would be completed to the cost – have all been broken. Imagine if the public at large knew all this before the 2013 election. The ABC had a duty to cut through the bullshit, like it has done on so many other subjects, from Domestic Violence to Problem Gambling.

    In that case, it has failed.]

    Read more: http://www.pcauthority.com.au/News/414038,the-plot-thickens-in-the-abcs-nbn-lack-of-coverage.aspx#ixzz3xwiC385W

  18. I see that Madigan and Di Natale want to set up a Senate Enquiry into the Essendon Drugs saga.

    I can understand Mr Madigan’s interest. He thinks that buying Australian-made cardigans will help to address AGW.

    But Di Natale should stick to trying to get some sanity into Greens’ GMO, mining and defence equipment policies.

  19. guytaur@433

    bemused

    You replied to me and I responded to your reply.

    Any confusion is entirely yours.

    You did not address anything I had said but tried to make out I had implied fibre was not superior to copper.

    You really need to focus a bit more on understanding other posts.

  20. bemused

    You need to look at your original post my 416 was in reply to.

    You need to rethink before attacking people and saying they are saying something they are not.

    I never said you said Fibre was inferior for starters.

  21. That piece by Nick Ross has some excellent links in it like this one: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2012/4/2/technology/hfc-lessons-nbn-rollout
    [While there are many lessons that we can learn from this disaster – the key one being that building competitive national telecoms infrastructure is economically unviable – we will concentrate here on another element, that of ubiquity.

    As we all know, devices and services such as telephones, faxes, emails, internet etc will only create economic and social benefits if they are ubiquitously available. It is something of a chicken-and-the-egg situation – once ‘everyone’ has them these new services unleash enormous personal and societal benefits.

    Of course, the same will apply to the next generation of broadband infrastructure. This will facilitate the transformation of complete sectors of the economy such as business, finance, media, healthcare, education, etc. But here also the social and economic benefits can only be achieved if those services are ubiquitous.

    Are we now going to make that same mistake again?

    Presumably they will not go that far in capital destruction and the work that is underway at the time will be allowed to be completed. However, without the level of network ubiquity needed for such infrastructure, the investment ‘in the ground’ at that time will be fairly useless, as very few companies will start delivering services over such a limited infrastructure. The capital destruction, as well as the massive disruption to the telecoms industry, will cost far more than the $7 billion destroyed during the HFC rollout.

    If we have a repeat of the HFC network debacle and end up with a half-baked fibre-based infrastructure, this destruction of capital, plus the damage to the economy and the Australian society, will be many times greater than the $27 billion of taxpayers’ money that will be spent over a ten-year period to establish a ubiquitous high-speed broadband infrastructure.]

  22. guytaur@436

    bemused

    You need to look at your original post my 416 was in reply to.

    You need to rethink before attacking people and saying they are saying something they are not.

    I never said you said Fibre was inferior for starters.

    I despair… you are thicker than 2 planks.

  23. bemused

    No its is you who are thicker than two planks. As is noted by the fact you cannot find anywhere I said you said fibre was inferior.

  24. Another good link from the Nick Ross article.

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/04/27/nbn_questions_for_malcolm_turnbull/
    [This page about AT&T’s U-Verse VDSL offering, a Turnbull favorite, says it takes four hours to install, but unlike BT’s Infinity self-install is an option. U-verse also mentions its voice service is VoIP. BT charges line rental, an item that’s moot given it’s often buried in the cost of a plan, but it is interesting to note BT still does so.

    We’d therefore like to know the following:

    Will the coalition’s plan require access to a “master” phone socket? If so, what happens to phones connected to other phone sockets around a home or business?
    Will telephony under the coalition’s NBN plan be VoIP or analog?
    Will a voice service be compulsory or will “naked NBN” plans be allowed?
    Will customers acquire their premises equipment from NBN Co or from the telco they select to provide a service?
    Who will install customer premises equipment? NBN Co or the telco?
    Who will bear the cost of the new customer premises equipment, if needed?
    Who will be responsible for fixing copper connections between a home/business and the node? Given this is currently an area in which ISPs and Telstra point fingers at each other and blame one another for delays, or try to evade responsibility, how will the coalition’s plan ensure swift resolution of copper-related issues?
    We’re not asking these questions out of any desire to promote the Government’s NBN policy. We at Vulture South feel instead feel answers to the above would go a long way to explaining the NBN installation experience the coalition imagines. With answers to these questions in hand, Australians will be able to make a more informed choice about which NBN policy they prefer.]

  25. guytaur@439

    bemused

    No its is you who are thicker than two planks. As is noted by the fact you cannot find anywhere I said you said fibre was inferior.

    You clearly implied it in 416 when you were defending the physics as if I was attacking fibre.
    I had made the simple point:
    [“Fibre Optic has been in use in Australia for trunk routes for decades. This does not constitute acknowledgement of anything other than the capacity of those routes has been upgraded in the normal manner.”]
    As you seemed to be off with the fairies imagining that the use of fibre for a trunk route somehow “— does acknowledge Labor argument that Optic Fibre is superior.”

    Telstra and others have been installing fibre for decades.

    What makes the NBN proposed by Labor different is that it extends it all the way to the premises.

  26. bemused

    Again go look at your stupid comment that started the whole thing.

    You don’t like the reply that is your problem. I never said or indeed implied you said anything.

    I did say something about the ABC. Last time I checked you are not the ABC

  27. bemused

    “”You really need to focus a bit more on understanding other posts.””

    You need to stop nitpicking at every bodies posts!.

  28. [ Totally unable to access the site for some hours, hoped that meant it was down for maitenance! ]

    I suspect William may have taken to them with a taser. Well done that man wot!! 🙂

    [I was forced to do housework. ]

    Oh the humanity!!!!

  29. bemused

    There you go again. I never said anything other than the ABC reporting about optic fibre.

    I did not say anything other than fibre is superior and the ABC report acknowledges this. I did not say the ABC report said anything about fibre to the premises.

    Thats you.

    I never said you said fibre was inferior. Thats you reading words never said.

  30. Holmes fellow from MW and Mike Carlton very anti-Nick Ross but from what I’ve seen haven’t provided anything helpful to the discussion which is degenerating into Nick is a sook who should shutup; the whole ABC should be bulldozed polarised positions.

    Holmes strongest point was that MW made a fairly mild criticism of Nick Ross. His weakest is a lack of explanation for MW running a fairly mild attack piece (with some rubbish journalism)uninfluenced he claims by News Corp or Malcolm or Malcolms scarry friends on the 14th floor.

    If Holmes is telling the truth, in circumstances where you could probably fairly observe ‘he would say that wouldn’t he’, then there is no explanation for Alberici knowing Ross was professional poison and reacting with panic to a tweet that might have linked her to him.

    I guess it is possible that the MW story idea came from someone who knew Ross was poison, or wanted to poison him, but that Holmes didn’t know about. Such that MW was a gun used to get Ross but Holmes remains ignorant.

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