Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. [But the same high standard of proof necessary to prove that Clements criminally assaulted Jones would also be necessary to prove that Jones perjured herself to incriminate Clements.]

    But there are different levels here and I would suggest both the question of criminality and the criminal standard of proof are both irrelevant.

    I would suggest that in the non-office holding political sphere they operated in, a more likely than not test would be appropriate. For me his failure to have an independent party investigate and to tough it out with the numbers and power is enough circumstantial evidence to pass that bar.

    You could have a much lower bar, the ‘bemused above reproach test’ for example where quasi-public political leaders need to be not quite but almost above reproach. Clearly he has failed that in at least one if not two ways.

    They say life isn’t fair but from what I’ve seen politics is a lot less fair than life.

    He was very lucky IMHO to grab a pile of members money on the way out.

  4. Steelydan

    [Just a quick hands up how many of you guys believe George Bush had prior knowledge of the September 11 attacks]
    The actual date ? Not likely………… BUT

    [Bush Warned of Hijackings Before 9-11

    U.S. intelligence officials warned President Bush weeks before the Sept. 11 attacks that Osama bin Laden’s terrorist network might hijack American planes, but White House officials stressed the threat was not specific. ]
    http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=91651

  5. Maybe Steelydan should use ABC for source for Myths:

    Richard Chirgwin ‏@R_Chirgwin 3m3 minutes ago

    .@ABCNewsBrisbane @ABCFarNorth Pro tip: if you’re going to play the NT News card, do it right: “ALIEN CAIRNS IN CAIRNS!”.

  6. The current discussion is that the ABC buried a story and bullied an employee out of fear of the liberal party and Malcolm Turnbull, and that is preposterous. Just crazy talk.

  10. Every time the righties whine and complain about the ABC they expose their soft underbelly, they are so weak they cannot handle any news that is critical or telling the truth about the Liberals.
    They all sat back cheering the ABC when it was attacking Labor/Gillard/Rudd.

    Right wing weak kneed, chinless twerps, who run to mummy every time someone says something “nasty” to them

  11. detailed evidence that he cant produce because of reddit guidelines, give me a break. There is nothing there other than a disgruntled employee, not even the Gaurdian would take him on after this, actually they might socialist journalist with a chip on his shoulder.

  14. WWP @ 2103

    The word ‘perjury’ was used. The issue of being reported and considered for criminal investigation by the police was raised. That’s why I referred to criminal standards of proof. Of course, there is much more scope in the civil sphere where the test is the balance of probabilities, but that course if fraught for all parties.

    As for

    [For me his failure to have an independent party investigate and to tough it out with the numbers and power is enough circumstantial evidence to pass that bar.]

    That might be enough for you, but to me it smacks of a fact that is used as proxy evidence but really is not. As many people here have pointed out, the inner workings of the NSW Labor Party can make Byzantium seem a paradigm of open government, so I would not presume to guess what the implications of what happened or didn’t happen might imply about guilt or innocence. The only conclusion I drew was a factual one – that the failure of the party (for whatever reason) to not address this issue quickly did nobody any favours.

  15. No you have me wrong on the ABC I do think they drift to the left a little but I don’t mind so much, I just don’t believe the ABC fears the liberal party that much they bullied one of there journalist. They are one of the premier media organisations in the world and would never do what you guys are accusing them of they would love to stick it to the Government any Government.

  16. Steelydan is using the new defence, “he is a disgrunted employee!”.

    The same defence that KingForce is using over at Whirlpool.

    Now let me guess here Steelydan.

    Are you the same person? or are you affiliated with anyone that is giving you orders ?

    Now in addtion to your post at 2115, you are claiming that the ABC is “too much to the left”.

  17. [The current discussion is that the ABC buried a story and bullied an employee out of fear of the liberal party and Malcolm Turnbull, and that is preposterous. Just crazy talk.]

    Anyone who has lived in the real world knows that this is a very possibility. All sorts of organisations do all sorts of things for fear of the political/business consequences of not doing so.

    If Ross had said that he had been told that Turnbull had called Mark Scott and told him not to run any more negative stories on Fraudband, I would be much more sceptical. Just like Turncoat should have been sceptical when he was told by Grech that Rudd had actually organised the ute.

    I’ll wait and see. But I would note that the airwaves, including the ABC was extraordinarily free of any discussion about the most important communications infrastructure project of the century. And there has to be a reason for that.

  19. [It is a big step from there to damning the whole organisation.]

    I’m taking this to mean you are conceding you were always and completely right and remain so.

    I think it would just be easier to say you didn’t previously believe without the benefit of these claims that the ABC was in anyway biased, but that having considered those claims it appears to you that at least in respect of the NBN it was. You would even have to summon your courage and integrity and utter the words ‘U was wrong’. You could leave the gentle implication, half the readers wont even draw that inference and a good deal of readers including myself are going to at least be a little sympathetic to you holding both views at the relevant time.

    Although I would have though a slightly higher level of skepticism was always called for personally.

  20. I don’t know anything about the Ross or the Clement sagas except whatvI see in the media.

    So the case of Ross, the ABC apparently self-censoring in anticipation of a new Government that is not only hostile to it but an existential threat? Sounds entirely credible.

    Clements? A powerful alpha male bullying those he thinks can’t / won’t fight back and generally acting like a boofhead? Entirely credible. As to what actually happened, its he said she said. She initiated legal action and they settled before the case came up. The the whole affair was still damaging Labor so Clements had to go.

  21. Doing a search on the ABC site for NBN stories finds very few in 2015. Most relate to the launch of the satellite and takeup in “the bush”.Lateline did a story hidden in its new slot, Overnights did a story at 2 AM. A couple of Fifeild pressers and a question on 7.30.

    For Australia’s largest infrastructure project in decades I would have thought there would be more

  22. [“he is a disgrunted employee!”.]
    And when did being disgruntled mean you are a bullshit spreading loon ? Could there possibly be a reason why someone becomes disgruntled ?

  23. WeWantPaul@2103

    But the same high standard of proof necessary to prove that Clements criminally assaulted Jones would also be necessary to prove that Jones perjured herself to incriminate Clements.


    But there are different levels here and I would suggest both the question of criminality and the criminal standard of proof are both irrelevant.

    I would suggest that in the non-office holding political sphere they operated in, a more likely than not test would be appropriate. For me his failure to have an independent party investigate and to tough it out with the numbers and power is enough circumstantial evidence to pass that bar.

    You could have a much lower bar, the ‘bemused above reproach test’ for example where quasi-public political leaders need to be not quite but almost above reproach. Clearly he has failed that in at least one if not two ways.

    They say life isn’t fair but from what I’ve seen politics is a lot less fair than life.

    He was very lucky IMHO to grab a pile of members money on the way out.

    Huh??? I have proposed no such test.

    I have simply reminded someone, with the memory of a goldfish, that I have never said the ABC is above reproach.

  24. [That might be enough for you, but to me it smacks of a fact that is used as proxy evidence but really is not.]

    It is probably weaker than circumstantial evidence but it is similar. What else can you use except for the absurd ‘no witness no crime’ test.

  27. Would I be surprised that the Coalition in opposition tried to pressure the ABC to bury a story, probably not. Would I be surprised that the ABC caved into the pressure and kept that quiet for three years, yes. Would I be surprised that there is a full on media campaign, including The Guardian, to bury the story, highly unlikely.

    I think we need to see more than untested allegations before accepting a Liberal/ABC/MSM conspiracy.

  28. Poroti

    At level 76 in Fallout, wiped out the Institute and BoS. Helping random synths escape and creating vast settlements. Its a game you don’t “Beat”.

  29. ruawake@2126

    The ABC or certain managers within the organisation?


    Both, but mainly the ABC as a trusted organisation.

    If Ross really does have evidence of the necessary standard, then it is incumbent on the ABC Board to take action.

  30. It’s wrong to say that the federal government could run out of money.

    But if a government doesn’t need to collect taxes or borrow from the markets in order to spend, why does it do these things? In a country like the UK, taxes serve a number of purposes. Firstly, tax ensures there is a demand for the government’s currency. We must all pay taxes in pounds (some more than others), so we accept pounds as payment for goods and services so we can pay our taxes. Secondly, taxes make room for government spending. If the government just spent without taxing, very quickly we would reach maximum output and start to experience accelerating inflation. Taxation helps keep a lid on inflation. Finally, taxation is used to meet social aims. These may be to redistribute wealth or to discourage harmful activities, like polluting or smoking.

    Why does the government sell bonds? It does this primarily to maintain its target rate of interest. If the government wanted, it could stop selling bonds altogether. This would mean the overnight interest rate would fall to 0%. Bonds also serve as a risk free asset which institutions like pension funds like to hold as part of their portfolios, so they serve a purpose in that way also.

    http://think-left.org/2012/09/25/the-fundamental-deceit-of-theres-no-money-left/

  32. [It is probably weaker than circumstantial evidence but it is similar. What else can you use except for the absurd ‘no witness no crime’ test.]

    Sometimes you have to accept that nothing can be used. The problem can also be characterised as ‘no witness’ and the allegation cannot be disproved.

    The risk is that if you don’t have genuine probative evidence, it is far too easy to simply rely on prejudicial interpretation of random facts (and sometimes just false rumours). Without knowing more, the mere fact that nothing was done for some time could satisfy a number of hypotheses. The more we know the more we can clarify which hypotheses are likely. We know very little other than what has been claimed by the parties, which are self-serving.

  33. [The ABC or certain managers within the organisation?]

    Any organisation is besmirched by the misconduct of its managers and staff. It reflects badly on the culture of the organisation.

  34. It’s funny how liberals on PB and media can create a so called conspiracy, like the Unions, but then back away from it.

    But when something like Gillard Triggs or Nick Ross get’s mentioned, it’s like labelled a conspiracy theory.

  35. Richard Chirgwin ‏@R_Chirgwin 2m2 minutes ago

    Let’s not forget, Renai Le May, that when *I* tried to challenge Turnbullshit on the NBN pre-the-2013-election, *you* endorsed him in public

  38. david @ 2127

    Once someone claims to have evidence to support their allegations you would expect them to produce that evidence. At this stage, Ross’s reasons for not releasing the evidence is plausible, but will undermine his claims the longer time goes without substantiation.

    I don’t support any suggestion of press conspiracy to suppress information, although the Murdoch press is very aggressive at printing or withholding stories according to its political agenda. But even the Murdoch press will report something if there is a good story.

    At this stage I have not seen any MSM reporting outside the news website on Ross’s allegations, which I think is quite strange – especially for the Guardian and and the Fairfax technology case. They may think it is not news – which would surprise me greatly – or they might want to be sure of their legal ground, which is more plausible but still surprising, given what other crap makes it onto websites very quickly.

    I’ll wait to see before jumping to conclusions.

  39. [The damaging report by the former chief executive of the high court Christopher Doogan, found Save the Children workers were fired under political pressure from Canberra as a “circuit breaker” to quell protests on the island.]

    That’s incredibly blunt.

  40. New ALP membership just announced.

    Members will be able to tick a box – box 1 if you want your fees used only for political purposes, box 2 if you agree to your fees being used to fund pay-offs, legal fees for failed defamation actions and sex harassment payoffs.

  43. zoid @ 2141

    Yeah. I saw that. That’s what I meant ‘outside the news website’, but I should have made it clearer that I meant news.com.au.

    One wonders whether they were happy to publish it because bagging the ABC is more important to Murdoch than protecting Fraudband. I suspect that now that true Broadband has been set back for years, Murdoch is happy with continuing to report how the ABC is white-anting itself.

  44. TPOF I would be very disappointed with the ABC if this turns out to be correct. On face value it makes no sense for the ABC to have acted the way alleged.

  45. @EDJ/2140

    Liberal Members Get 4 options for their membership:

    1) Sexual Harassment of overseas public servants.
    2) How to cheat your tax this year.
    3) Let’s dump shit everywhere.
    4) Let’s waste public money on Bronie.

  46. Edwina StJohn@2140

    New ALP membership just announced.

    Members will be able to tick a box – box 1 if you want your fees used only for political purposes, box 2 if you agree to your fees being used to fund pay-offs, legal fees for failed defamation actions and sex harassment payoffs.

    Your whole line of argument is just dopey.

    Where a political party is an employer it incurs the same obligations as any other employer.

  47. Saying they have evidence of the ABC burying a story because they where fearful of repercussions from the Liberal party and Turnbull sounds a bit like someone saying the have evidence of Attenborough dynamite fishing on the barrier reef, its possible I just cant see David doing it, This story just goes against everything the ABC are in the game for.

  48. interrogativus ‏@interrogativus 19m19 minutes ago

    Gagged technology journalists, gagged offshore detention centre staff & coverage, unprecedented data retention.
    Viva la Liberal democracy.

    Yes Also remember metadata and the security laws the threat to go to jail.

  49. There is a desparate need for an enquiry into the NBN.

    Actually, maybe there’s something in common with the introduction of subscription TV to Australia. We didn’t get it until 10 years after the rest of the developed world. The existing media owners did all they could to block it for as long as they could. They didn’t want any threat to their licence to print money.

  50. davidwh

    [TPOF I would be very disappointed with the ABC if this turns out to be correct. ]
    True.
    [On face value it makes no sense for the ABC to have acted the way alleged.]
    Not if the corporate culture is all about increasing/maintaining funding etc. That is not so hard to believe.

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