Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 1m1 minute ago

    @NickRossTech Pretty sure he wasn’t too happy when I caught that internet filtering policy the Coalition had planned

  2. The great thing about the Jamie Clements saga is that views expressed on this board seem to be driven heavily by the political position of those who express those views

    ……..just saying…..

  3. Nicholas

    I am totally with you!

    Rua

    Wouldn’t the fact the he has lost his position be the evidence of his treatment of the woman?

  4. [I wonder how long it will be before the recordings become the subject of an AFP raid on Ross’s residence ….]

    If Ross was half competent as Technology editor, digital copies of those tapes would be nicely salted in all sorts of interesting places.

  5. [Wouldn’t the fact the he has lost his position be the evidence of his treatment of the woman?]

    Why? Were there any witnesses?

    He may well be a pig of a man, he may deserve all he got, be we have zero evidence of what he did.

  6. Nicholas @ 2309,
    Your pathetic attempt at being condescending and dismissive towards me is not going to work sunshine. I happen to have an independent witness to back up my claims about my personal familiarity with Jamie Clements. Not that I should have to prove anything to a Greens’ fanboi who appears to have learnt his blog manners from the schoolground of the Private School his posh parents sent him to for his Liberal Arts education.

    Anyway, just ask Bushfire Bill, as he was with me when we went to Julia Gillard’s Western Sydney forum with Vote1Julia and who could verify that I was able to just walk up to the NSW Labor State Secretary and just say, “Hi, Jamie, how you been?”

    But you go on deluding yourself that my, ‘ comments on NSW Labor have been designed to make yourself look and feel important and connected to the action.’ And I’ll go on laughing at your attempts to big note yourself on the blog by trying to take me down.

  7. befuddled

    [ So you are on a unity ticket with geniuses like Player One and Rex Douglas. ]

    Let’s not forget that you were the numpty that believed the ABC was above reproach, while most others could see what was going on, even if they didn’t think selling it was the answer.

    Guess you might be feeling a little stupid right now, eh?

  8. rua

    Is your rule of thumb that there must be witnesses to back up his story – that would work wouldn’t it.

    Never ever trust what the Right will do or not.

  9. [Wouldn’t the fact the he has lost his position be the evidence of his treatment of the woman?]

    It would be evidence of the incredible political sensitivity of the issue.

    To be honest, I have never heard of any of the main players and have no views on them or their politics. But I have some problems with people accepting poor proxy evidence as compelling.

    To give him his due, I thought Turnbull handled the Brough matter appropriately. Not moving quickly and confirming and double-checking the facts protected the public servant involved from the inevitable backlash against her. A lot of people actually knew the facts and were happy to ensure that she was not traduced.

    If these allegations have been hanging around for six months, then the Labor Party not fully investigating and finalising them has done the alleged victim and the alleged perpetrator a great disservice, leading to potentially precipitate action now in forcing Clements’s resignation.

    Having said that, the fact that the police did not pursue an investigation does not necessarily mean that the allegations are untrue, as the job of the police is not to clear or charge, but to determine if there is a prospect of sufficient evidence being able to go to the DPP to charge and convict. The allegations may have been true but there was insufficient prospect of ever getting evidence of it.

  10. Catmomma

    The point sailed over your head. Your personal acquaintance with Clements is not in dispute. What is in dispute is your understanding of how sexual harassers operate. You seem to think that they are unpleasant and creepy most of the time and therefore easy to spot. The reality is very different. There is no typical profile for a sexual harasser.

  11. ruawake @2046,

    ‘ I have no idea, but I do know men sexually harass women and women can make false claims.’

    Exactly! All I said originally was that I made a point of reading the ‘The Daily Telegraph’ article about the incident and what Stephanie Jones said occurred and the words that were spoken by Jamie Clements, allegedly, just didn’t ring true to me. It seemed too stilted and the scenario seemed an artificially-constructed one.

    But, you know, because I am a woman also I’m supposed to side with my gender apparently.

  12. [If these allegations have been hanging around for six months, then the Labor Party not fully investigating and finalising them has done the alleged victim and the alleged perpetrator a great disservice, leading to potentially precipitate action now in forcing Clements’s resignation.]

    I like this summary.

    Couple of points. If this is the dude effectively running the party he has two reasons to go the allegations and his failure to stand aside and have someone neutral or even better antagonistic to him investigate.

    That failure to ensure proper investigate should have been enough for him to walk for free and the complainant to get the 300k.

  13. MTBW @2054 ,

    ‘ Wouldn’t the fact the he has lost his position be the evidence of his treatment of the woman?’

    No.

    He resigned for the good of the party in an election year.

  14. C@tmomma

    [reading the ‘The Daily Telegraph’ article ]
    Who of course always report the unvarnished truth in articles about Labor figure. 🙂

  15. Catmomma

    “resigned for the good of the party” and wanting a million dollars handed to him to leave.

    I must be very old fashioned.

  16. MTBW @2061,

    ‘ Is your rule of thumb that there must be witnesses to back up his story – that would work wouldn’t it.’

    And your rule of thumb appears to be, if it involves a member from the NSW Labor Right, never believe a word they say in their own defence. That works for me. Not.

  17. catmomma

    Just happens that he was from the Right if it was anyone from the left I would have exactly the same view as I have now.

  18. [Didn’t Clements ask for a million dollars to go?]

    According to the Daily Telegraph, yes. What the truth is, is probably different.

  19. MTBW @ 2072,

    ‘ “resigned for the good of the party” and wanting a million dollars handed to him to leave.

    I must be very old fashioned.’

    Yes, because you obviously understand nothing about Contract Law and Severance packages.

    Of course I expected you to squawk about ‘ a million dollars’ and not mention the fact it only ended up being $300000. Which is fair and reasonable under the circumstances that nothing has actually been proven and you and others are simply and simplistically taking as gospel what was reported in The Daily Telegraph.

  20. rua

    We will have to wait and see over the coming weeks but it is time for me to watch the ABC News and have something to eat.

    See ya tomorrow!

  21. Dickhead One@2059

    befuddled

    So you are on a unity ticket with geniuses like Player One and Rex Douglas.


    Let’s not forget that you were the numpty that believed the ABC was above reproach, while most others could see what was going on, even if they didn’t think selling it was the answer.

    Guess you might be feeling a little stupid right now, eh?

    I have seldom before met anyone with your propensity to lie.

    I corrected you yesterday on that claim. I have never asserted the ABC is beyond reproach. I never would. The claim is just as self evidently absurd as most of what you post.

  22. C@tmomma@2067

    ruawake @2046,

    ‘ I have no idea, but I do know men sexually harass women and women can make false claims.’

    Exactly! All I said originally was that I made a point of reading the ‘The Daily Telegraph’ article about the incident and what Stephanie Jones said occurred and the words that were spoken by Jamie Clements, allegedly, just didn’t ring true to me. It seemed too stilted and the scenario seemed an artificially-constructed one.

    But, you know, because I am a woman also I’m supposed to side with my gender apparently.

    You are. Just check with confessions, Puffy and a few others on PB.

  23. befuddled

    [ I have seldom before met anyone with your propensity to lie.

    I corrected you yesterday on that claim. I have never asserted the ABC is beyond reproach. I never would. The claim is just as self evidently absurd as most of what you post. ]

    Don’t worry, I’m sure “Antiques Roadshow” will be back on the air soon. Have you ever thought of auditioning?

  24. To date there is the same level of public evidence for both the Clements and Ross issues. In fact there is probably stronger evidence regarding Clements as

  25. Nicholas @ 2065,

    ‘ The point sailed over your head. Your personal acquaintance with Clements is not in dispute. What is in dispute is your understanding of how sexual harassers operate. You seem to think that they are unpleasant and creepy most of the time and therefore easy to spot. The reality is very different. There is no typical profile for a sexual harasser.’

    No the point you were trying to make was about my attempting to big note myself here and it was perfectly clear, sunshine.

    Now, as to my apparent inability to spot a sexual harasser from a mile off, I never claimed what was alleged never happened, just that the article I read in The Daily Telegraph didn’t sound right, didn’t smell right to me.

    Now, please explain to me why I am not allowed to have that opinion?

  26. [Any document prepared in support of the AVO would be sworn so the allegation of confection is one of oerjury]

    But the same high standard of proof necessary to prove that Clements criminally assaulted Jones would also be necessary to prove that Jones perjured herself to incriminate Clements.

    There is a huge grey area between the two where the criminal can neither convict nor exonerate.

  27. [I corrected you yesterday on that claim. ]

    Meh nah you didn’t so much correct anything at all so much as rail against the hyperbole in ‘beyond reproach’ and then be very slippery indeed about both your current position and previous position.

    Given you strongly and consistently supported the ABC and if the allegations of Mr Ross are true, quite incorrectly so, I find you going on the offensive quite humorous.

  28. davidwh

    After so many years of reading the sort of stuff that goes on in NSW I’m of the view that anything is possible . Lib or Lab the political game seems to be played no holds barred . Kicking, biting and gouging par for the course.

    Richo’s ” Whatever it Takes” being the guiding star for all sides.

  29. TPOF
    [To give him his due, I thought Turnbull handled the Brough matter appropriately. Not moving quickly and confirming and double-checking the facts protected the public servant involved …]
    I presume [?] you meant Briggs?
    Because with Brough, Turnbull showed appallingly bad arrogance and judgement.
    He needed Brough’s vote to capture the glittering prize of PMship and happily ignored the years old blatantly unresolved issue of Brough and Ashby, either because he presumed the affair was dead in the water or didn’t care one way or the other, just wanted another vote to get his bum on the big seat.
    There is, or should be, a lot more flak heading the way of Turnbull, Brough, Roy and Pyne – if the media do their job.

  30. WeWantPaul@2088

    I corrected you yesterday on that claim.


    Meh nah you didn’t so much correct anything at all so much as rail against the hyperbole in ‘beyond reproach’ and then be very slippery indeed about both your current position and previous position.

    Given you strongly and consistently supported the ABC and if the allegations of Mr Ross are true, quite incorrectly so, I find you going on the offensive quite humorous.

    I did expect a higher standard from you.

    I suspect everything Mr Ross is claiming is true. And on other matters the ABC, or more correctly, some of its staff have behaved poorly.

    It is a big step from there to damning the whole organisation.

  31. Agree Poroti but that wasn’t my point. It’s really about what people are prepared to accept as proven or alternatively reject. There seems to be a lack of consistency about that.

  32. From zoidlord’s link:

    [(The Senate Enquiry) has recommended that the federal government commit to funding the final two years of the Gonski reforms, despite revelations last month that it would not.

    However, Coalition senators in the committee stressed that the states were the primary funders of schools and the government was already providing record levels of funding for students with disabilities.]

    I always find the excuse of ‘record levels’ of anything cynically amusing. Pollies use it a lot to criticise or excuse. With a growing population all expenditure will rise to ‘record levels’.

  33. shea @ 2091

    Yes. You are right. I meant Briggs. Indeed, by backend loading the Brough matter, Turnbull actually undermined the kudos he might have gotten from the way he dealt with Briggs. Brough has a long way to run and all Turncoat might have achieved up to now is stopping the unedifying spectacle of Brough totally showing why he was incompetent, as well as unfit, to be a Minister.

  34. @bemused/2092

    Well considering that Nick said coming from the management, that is pretty much the entire origination.

    The management of any company/organization is a reflection of the company.

    That is why it is important for management is that they should be impartial of any situation, and adhere to any codes of conduct/policy that the company has deployed.

    That is why there was big flack over Myer Management (the then CEO) in 2014 over his comments on the Disabled.

  35. Just a quick hands up how many of you guys believe George Bush had prior knowledge of the September 11 attacks. Now Now don’t go on a George Bush tirade we all know the guy stuffed up big time, just trying to get a feel for the room, we are not talking fake moon landings are we?

  36. @bemused/2092

    Well considering that Nick said coming from the management, that is pretty much the entire origination.

    The management of any company/organization is a reflection of the company.

    That is why it is important for management is that they should be impartial of any situation, and adhere to any codes of conduct/policy that the company has deployed.

    That is why there was big flack over Myer Management (the then CEO) in 2014 over his comments on the Disabled.

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