Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. I am looking forward to the Xenophon’s candidates outside SA getting slaughtered.

    SA – the fiscally mendicant state reliant on Federal handouts and home of the Democrats, weird crime mysteries and Xenophon.

    At least they make nice wine and catch/breed good tuna.

  2. “It shows that over 40 per cent of ABC journalists support the Greens, over 30 per cent support Labor, and just 15 per cent support the Coalition”. University of the Sunshine Coast paper look it up.And on Journalists in General “While 41 percent of journalists describe their ‘general political leaning’ as middle of the road, most of the remainder are more likely to lean to the left than to the right. Of the total, 3.8 percent said they were ‘pretty far to the left’, 35 percent a ‘little to the left’, 1.8 percent ‘pretty far to the right’ and 14.2 percent a ‘little to the right’. Journalists specialising in politics are much more likely to lean to the left than the right: 48 percent to 11 percent.”

  3. Cranky just because a Journalist at ABC is green supporter, doesn’t mean their journalism is gagged by the powers that be.

    Class A idiot.

  4. zoidy – @1999 – an indication of the failure of the current screening/vetting systems that require a blanket approach to everyone in order to not be open to claims of discrimination.

  5. Compact Crank@2002

    bemused @1998 – the best thing about the LNP Climate Policy at the moment is the Lefty Head Explodiness Index.

    Oh really?

    Economically, it is more like something out of Pyongyang than a market based solution.

    Scientifically it is just ridiculed.

  6. Crank

    They are not my words. Can’t you tell it’s a quote? I was quoting an article in Crikey. I don’t pretend to be an expert on the govt.

  7. lizzie@2009

    Crank

    They are not my words. Can’t you tell it’s a quote? I was quoting an article in Crikey. I don’t pretend to be an expert on the govt.

    Cranky doesn’t understand quotes.

  8. Why are you all bothering to deal with CC what common sense does he have?

    He loves the limelight and you are all just encouraging him.

    There are other things to talk about surely.

  9. bemused @ 1983,

    ‘ What is your source for saying they are married? It doesn’t show up on either of their Wikipedia entries.’

    But it does show up on a list of :

    ‘Media couples: a (significantly updated) Crikey list’
    from January 14, 2016. 🙂

  10. [It shows that over 40 per cent of ABC journalists support the Greens…]

    It shows nothing of the sort, it shows that those who chose to respond (we do not know what % that was) responded in that way.

    The survey was widely criticised at the time. Why do Libs always use dodgy figures?

  11. [ bemused

    Posted Friday, January 15, 2016 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    lizzie@2009

    Crank

    They are not my words. Can’t you tell it’s a quote? I was quoting an article in Crikey. I don’t pretend to be an expert on the govt.

    Cranky doesn’t understand quotes

    ]

    Cranky doesn’t understand ….. there fixed it for you

  12. C@tmomma@2016

    bemused @ 1983,

    ‘ What is your source for saying they are married? It doesn’t show up on either of their Wikipedia entries.’

    But it does show up on a list of :

    ‘Media couples: a (significantly updated) Crikey list’
    from January 14, 2016.

    I am quite surprised.

    I don’t mind Ticky who seems to play with a fairly straight bat.

    Stutchbury is just a nutter.

  13. ruawake@2017

    It shows that over 40 per cent of ABC journalists support the Greens…


    It shows nothing of the sort, it shows that those who chose to respond (we do not know what % that was) responded in that way.

    The survey was widely criticised at the time. Why do Libs always use dodgy figures?

    Because dodgy figures are the only ones giving their arguments any support. 👿

    Simple!

  14. The LNP ‘Climate Policy’ is nothing more than a figleaf to hide* their determination to do nothing. Throw a few billion at an ineffective plan that won’t cost their backers, especially the coal industry.

    * from the voters, not their paymasters

  15. @1597
    Disgraceful innuendo

    May I also say that I made a point of reading the article in The Daily Telegraph today and I am having my doubts about the alleged incident in the office between Jamie and Stephanie Jones. When I read Jones’ account of what allegedly went on it didn’t ring true to me and seemed confected in order to justify the AVO. I thus believe Jamie when he says it never happened that way.

    I would also like to add that Stephanie’s boyfriend, David Latham, is one VERY ambitious young man. Make of that what you will.

  16. This is another interesting pairing that I got from the list, and which also answers the question of who it is that is doing Corporate Communication for the ABC now:

    ‘ •Nick Leys (former Australian media editor, now doing corporate comms at the ABC) and Louise Milligan (ABC 7.30 investigative reporter)’

  17. The LNP “climate fig-leaf” is in deep poo. Emission are increasing again, electricity usage is up for the first time in years, hydro storage is low and there are no more land clearing fiddles to use.

    It is also possible that the excess credits from land clearing will need to be surrendered as has been done by other countries.

    Direct Action cannot achieve what Turnbull has signed onto, he will have to do something. But what?

  18. Re abundance of Green ABCers. If the ABC was seen by employees as being politically influenced then the journos “admitting” their allegiance ain’t going to say Labor. Green is a nice little cop out to avoid picking Lib or Lab. Cos the Greens sure as hell aren’t going to be in government during the employees life time.

  19. I don’t know whether anyone else has noticed but the Raving Right have quietly abandoned public climate denialism.

    It has not raised its head during in the US primaries.

    Not a single Australian Right Raver has mentioned it since Paris.

    De nada.

    Why?

    My view is that muslim bashing is more emotionally satisfying for the Raving Right.

    Perhaps TBA or CC could provide some insights?

  20. Nicholas,
    Let me put it to you in words of one syllable so you understand. I did NOT suggest (ok, 2 syllables) that David Latham pimped his girlfriend out to trap Jamie Clements. I meant to imply that David Latham made full use of the case to tear down Jamie Clements. He plays the game that hard.

  21. This will cause much cheering and excitement on PB.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-factions-engineer-deal-to-keep-joel-fitzgibbon-pat-conroy-in-parliament-20160115-gm6mrp.html
    [Federal Labor stalwart Joel Fitzgibbon and up-and-comer Pat Conroy would be found new seats but long-serving backbencher Jill Hall could be forced out of Parliament under a plan being engineered by factional heavyweights in the wake of electoral boundary changes.

    Mr Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter has been effectively abolished as part of a contentious NSW redistribution announced by the Australian Electoral Commission.

    Mr Conroy’s neighbouring Lake Macquarie-based seat of Charlton has been renamed Hunter and will take in many of Mr Fitzgibbon’s electors.

    While Mr Fitzgibbon is overseas and has yet to comment publicly on the AEC’s decision – first flagged in October – it’s understood he is pushing hard to take over as the member for the new Hunter.

    Sources say Mr Fitzgibbon, from the party’s Right faction, is likely to get his way. If so, the most likely scenario is the Left-aligned Mr Conroy is likely will be installed in Ms Hall’s nearby seat of Shortland.

    While Ms Hall has not made her intentions clear – and could not be contacted on Friday – she is expected to come under increasing pressure to retire to pave the way for Mr Conroy.]

  22. C@tmomma@2032

    Nicholas,
    Let me put it to you in words of one syllable so you understand. I did NOT suggest (ok, 2 syllables) that David Latham pimped his girlfriend out to trap Jamie Clements. I meant to imply that David Latham made full use of the case to tear down Jamie Clements. He plays the game that hard.

    Someone earlier did suggest that is what you actually meant.

  23. “Macquarie Telecom’s concerns include measures that vary the non-discrimination provisions binding how NBN relates to National Broadband Network access seekers. The bill would allow the provisions to be suspended when it comes to pilots and trials of new products.”

    Ah yes, Telstra get’s more benefits.

  24. Liberal goverment is making regulatory changes before the network is even completed, this will further delay the NBN.

    Optus also says you should complete the network first.

  25. [I meant to imply that David Latham made full use of the case to tear down Jamie Clements. He plays the game that hard.]

    If the events occurred then he was NOT playing any game either soft or hard, at worst he was actively seeking an appropriate response to the events.

  26. Catmomma

    Your comments on NSW Labor have been designed to make yourself look and feel important and connected to the action. In the process you’ve made a pretty serious slur based on no evidence. You’ve said that Clements seems a pleasant man and therefore probably didn’t slam a staffer against a wall and try to kiss her. What you fail to recognize is that sexual harassers do not fall within a type or profile. Most sexual harassers appear entirely normal and highly functional when they aren’t harassing victims. You’re pumping up your personal dealings with Clements to make yourself look important, and in the process you are devaluing the word of the victim and reinforcing pernicious myths about how sexual harassment happens.

  27. I spent most of the day at Bunnings doing a sausage sizzle and met up with the husband of Rebekha Sharkie, the Xenophon candidate standing against Jamie Briggs in Mayo. We had quite a long conversation. He said that things have kicked off quite well and the “vibes” are good so far.
    We are in a quite strongly Liberal voting area but Briggs is not at all held in high regard – even before he went for the grope.
    Rebekha is holding one of her meet in the park events next Saturday in Gumeracha and I think I’ll go along for a chat.

  28. Mike Wayville ‏@MikeWayville 3h3 hours ago

    Nick Ross has tape recorded conversations with management about his #NBN coverage before election 2013. Dynamite! #auspol #NBN @abcnews

  29. I would imagine that commercial media, who seem resentful of ABC ‘privilege’ (hah!) will be very willing to publicise the Nick Ross material.

  30. Nicholas

    Nobody except the man and woman involved know exactly what happened. One says one thing the other denies it.

    What makes you sure which one is correct?

    I have no idea, but I do know men sexually harass women and women can make false claims.

    If you have proof or evidence one way or another please enlighten us.

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