Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

  1. [“Ross has something to hide and so the organisation he is in conflict with takes steps to help him hide it. “]

    He doesn’t work for the ABC anymore.

    The Grand Conspiracy as always is in Nick Ross head. He thinks he is important enough that the ABC gets to bend rules for him, but alas… they don’t.

    Nobody cares about Nick Ross… he was a nobody at ABC and he’s a nobody now. The reason he was told to stop posting NBN articles is because they were so blatantly biased, filled with such anti-Liberal bile, completely devoid of facts and instead filled with emotion that they violated every charter of the taxpayer funded ABC.

    You don’t get to go to the ABC offices in the morning and post your own personal petty grievances as if it was Facebook. You just don’t.

    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3713148.htm

  2. yep absolute joke but it is all about stopping the boats, nothing else. You come to Australia outside of normal channels you end up in detention, then back to your home country, PNG or Cambodia or some other Country that you don’t want to live in.

  3. [“The Cambodia deal was shambolic especially considering it was 13 million a refugee”]

    How much was Gillards East Timor…. oh wait wait… Malaysian Solution again?

    $400 Million wasn’t it? For 800 People? And then we got 4000 Back?

    What. A. Deal.

  4. The political story on the ch7 evening news Sydney was a bit tonight. Apparently the mad right was beating on Turnbull about the gay mardi-gra. The weird thing is that he hasn’t even said if he’s going.

    Even more odd, Shorten got 2 easy news grabs with no rebuttal.

  5. The mad right beating on Turnbull only helps his cause, more of the swinging voters seeing how moderate and modern a man he is, and the mad right votes will make there way back to the liberal party through family first or the like. Its the swinging votes that count the 2 or 3 percent that decides elections.

  6. Steelydan, I agree that is how it has worked so far, but the story did not present that way at all. The presidential crap only works in a honeymoon. Why vote for a man at war with his party?

  7. E. G. Theodore Posted Friday, January 15, 2016 at 2260

    Networks have fibre links (currently up to about 1 Tbps) and electronic switches.

    Switches have (more or less by definition) more than two links attached. Hence if links are 1 Tbps then bandwidth through the switch needs to be > 1 Tbps (i.e. more bandwidth than the fibre in the links).

    Switches will typically use buffering (though they need not) as it would be expensive and wasteful to provide 1 Tbps (or whatever) between each pair of link interfaces.

    Hence buffering is required in practice. And optical buffering is very difficult (though it will come).

    And?

    You’re going to have some sort of electrical interface converting the electrons to photons (e.g. an SFP). The fibre is a point to point link (well technically not true for PON, but close enough for this discussion) so there’s no need to buffer on it. You can buffer on the electronics at each end.

    For those interested here’s a copy of a presentation to Engineers Australia on the nbn FTTP design: https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/ferris_nbn_ieee_november_2012.pdf

    I understand nbn are using Alcatel Lucent 7302 ISAMs in the POIs for OLT functionality (that’s the bit that converts the electronics to the fibre).

  8. TrueBlueAussie Posted Saturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:40 am @ 2302

    You don’t get to go to the ABC offices in the morning and post your own personal petty grievances as if it was Facebook. You just don’t.

    No, you go to work for News Australia or talkback radio if you want to do that.

  9. @TBA/2304

    Yes TBA, it shows how wasteful abuse of tax payers money that Offshoring or outsourcing our own problem is.

    That is, outsourcing your problems doesn’t make it cheaper, only more expensive.

    HINT: Health, Education, Infrastructure (NBN), Detention Centers, Jails, etc.

  10. [You don’t get to go to the ABC offices in the morning and post your own personal petty grievances as if it was Facebook. You just don’t. ]

    I’m curious of all the things he has claimed, that this moron describes as ‘personal petty grievances’ are any of them less that absolute total truth?

  11. [ You don’t get to go to the ABC offices in the morning and post your own personal petty grievances as if it was Facebook. You just don’t.]

    No WWP, i think our resident VI is actually referring to Ross’s researched and referenced articles as “personal petty grievances”.

    Its a ecstatic religious happy clapper kind of thing for TBA. Deeply delusional, impervious to any information that doesn’t confirm its own established viewpoints and i feel sorry for anyone from QLD that may be unlucky enough to find themselves sharing a public road with the fool.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    OK Potato Head, over to you!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/selfharm-in-detention-centres-at-epidemic-levels-internal-documents-show-20160115-gm74q3.html
    And another report hammers Morrison’s actions while Immigration Minister.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-justification-for-save-the-children-staff-to-be-banished-from-nauru-says-report-20160115-gm73s2.html
    The Huffington Post shows us how much redacted was the report obtained through FOI.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/01/15/review-into-removal-of-staff-from-nauru_n_8986876.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
    Customs and Immigration at LAX are bad at the best of times!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/greens-mp-mehreen-faruqi-stopped-and-interrogated-at-lax-20160115-gm6xup.html
    Life in the fast lane at the ANZ is about to be exposed by the look of it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/sacked-anz-trader-patrick-oconnor-promises-more-embarrassing-revelations-20160115-gm6lez.html
    Lenore Taylor on the sham that is political donations law.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/15/overhauling-political-donation-laws-what-a-great-new-election-years-resolution
    Peter FitzSimons is in top form this morning.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/the-fitz-files/malaysian-decision-on-farah-ann-abdul-hadi-showed-no-respect-for-women-or-common-sense-20160115-gm6mqa.html
    The latest “mean and stupid” cuts to paid parental leave raise the ire of probably enough Senators to trouble the legislation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-justification-for-save-the-children-staff-to-be-banished-from-nauru-says-report-20160115-gm73s2.html
    Come on Mr Morrison, if the Europeans can do it why can’t we?
    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/15/apple-european-commission-ruling-back-taxes-ireland
    Underground fight club, Hell’s Angels and Jeff Fenech. What a combination!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/alleged-killers-link-to-underground-sydney-fight-club-20160115-gm6vkc.html

  13. TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Saturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    [“The Cambodia deal was shambolic especially considering it was 13 million a refugee”]

    Four refugees, payment to Cambodia 2015 was $55 million, the 2016 payment is $79 million.

    Still only 4 refugees at the cost of $134 million

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