Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. E. G. Theodore Posted Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:24 pm @ 2221

    The high bandwidth (i.e speed) transmission is through buses and switches using electronics (and hence copper or some other conductor, even gold in some cases) and will be for some time because (at least currently) optical signals can’t easily be buffered (which is required for buses and switches).

    You only need to buffer when the connection can’t support the required speeds.

  2. [ the current FTTN deployment is idiotic. ]

    On so many levels. On Speed, cost to deploy, cost to run, cost to maintain, ability to upgrade (to future gPON std’s), durability and survivability ……FTTP wins on ALL of those by a substantial margin.

    The only advantage of FTTN may be it can be deployed 3-4 years faster but it looks like that was just another broken promise from the Libs 2013 catalog. And on cost vs return over time it now looks like FTTP beats FTTN there as well.

    The Libs policy is a costly pile of steaming sh$T.

  3. Those Nodes are an eyesore and are already getting covered with graffiti and tags in our general area. And TBA wants one of these every 500-600 metres!

    He also complains about people’s rose gardens being dug up to put the fibre through when those rose gardens can grow back. However the ugly Nodes that sit outside people’s houses are forever!

  4. C@tmomma@2253

    Those Nodes are an eyesore and are already getting covered with graffiti and tags in our general area. And TBA wants one of these every 500-600 metres!

    He also complains about people’s rose gardens being dug up to put the fibre through when those rose gardens can grow back. However the ugly Nodes that sit outside people’s houses are forever!

    Not even sure you have to dig.

    There are technologies to bore under roads etc that could be adapted to run under a front fence and garden. Possibly already happening.

    Another alternative is overhead, just like existing phone cables, TV cables and power lines.

  5. [“PM stuffed our future” my God you mob exaggerate.]

    In fact dead accurate. The man got what he wanted – the Prime Ministership – and he could not give a damn about the nation for all his pollyanna pangloss panegyrics.

  6. TPOF@2258

    “PM stuffed our future” my God you mob exaggerate.


    In fact dead accurate. The man got what he wanted – the Prime Ministership – and he could not give a damn about the nation for all his pollyanna pangloss panegyrics.

    Yep! And it takes a special kind of duplicity to do that and then talk about innovation.

  7. B.C. @2251

    Networks have fibre links (currently up to about 1 Tbps) and electronic switches.

    Switches have (more or less by definition) more than two links attached. Hence if links are 1 Tbps then bandwidth through the switch needs to be > 1 Tbps (i.e. more bandwidth than the fibre in the links).

    Switches will typically use buffering (though they need not) as it would be expensive and wasteful to provide 1 Tbps (or whatever) between each pair of link interfaces.

    Hence buffering is required in practice. And optical buffering is very difficult (though it will come).

  8. Australia has been in the top level of the Human Development Index for the last decade or more and will be in foreseeable future, having the original NBN would have been great but we don’t and it will not effect the greatness of our country, going forward I a sure of it.

  9. The thing about photons is the bastards won’t sit still, they keep moving at the speed of light…

    Hence optical buffers need to run them round and round in circles, use unusual materials with a slower speed of light etc.

  10. bemused @ 2257,

    ‘ Not even sure you have to dig.

    There are technologies to bore under roads etc that could be adapted to run under a front fence and garden. Possibly already happening.

    Another alternative is overhead, just like existing phone cables, TV cables and power lines.’

    Yes, I forgot about getting it via an overhead cable. That’s how I have access to the internet now! My house is 200M from the road. 🙂

  11. In five years in nearly every way you can measure a country’s success Australia will be one of the leading nations of the world. Absolutely positive of it 9.50pm 15/01/2016

  12. Bemused @2261

    Your assertion concerned transmission technologies not transmission media.

    Transmission in a vacuum will be faster than in fibre as it avoids adsorbtion and re-emission completely. Although of course you could argue that a vacuum isn’t a medium…

  13. bemused@2257


    Another alternative is overhead, just like existing phone cables, TV cables and power lines.

    We are getting FTTP here soon. We recently got the Installation Notice. According to the enclosed pamphlet, our “fibre optic cable will be installed overhead as close as practical to” our existing overhead connection.

    No digging up, nor under, of our (very real) rose garden.

  14. E. G. Theodore@2266

    Bemused @2261

    Your assertion concerned transmission technologies not transmission media.

    Transmission in a vacuum will be faster than in fibre as it avoids adsorbtion and re-emission completely. Although of course you could argue that a vacuum isn’t a medium…

    The alternatives to fibre are copper, fixed wireless, satellite and what else?

    Do any of these offer higher data transmission speeds than fibre?

    NO! And never will.

  15. I reckon Australia has one more resources boom and one more run of sell out Lib government left and then it is stuffed. Soon no one will need to leave Asian cities for an Oz education so Oz will be just tourism and retirement villages. As Florida is to the NE of the USA we will be to Asia. Not poor but well aware who the rich folk are and who the servants are.

  16. Steelydan @ 2265

    [In five years in nearly every way you can measure a country’s success Australia will be one of the leading nations of the world. Absolutely positive of it 9.50pm 15/01/2016]

    So, you expect Labor to win the next election. Good on you.

  17. [“By this little oversight, the speed from the basement to the flat is reduced by 30%. “]

    Complete and total horse radish.

    You don’t lose 30% of your speed over 50 Meters of cable. You just don’t.

    FTTB has been one of the most successful changes NBN has made under Turnbull. Under Senator Conjob the whole fracking building had to be rewired… great fun if it’s 20 stories high and the walls are concrete as they usually are.

  18. Labor or liberal wont make a massive difference to where Australia stands globally, the only thing that could have upset the direction of Australia was the labor party’s attitude to asylum seekers but they saw the error of there ways. There heart was in the right place but scary in its naivety.

  19. TrueBlueAussie@2272

    “By this little oversight, the speed from the basement to the flat is reduced by 30%. “


    Complete and total horse radish.

    You don’t lose 30% of your speed over 50 Meters of cable. You just don’t.

    FTTB has been one of the most successful changes NBN has made under Turnbull. Under Senator Conjob the whole fracking building had to be rewired… great fun if it’s 20 stories high and the walls are concrete as they usually are.

    You ignorant idiot.

    Multi-storey buildings typically have a services riser through which all cables run and it is easy to run a fibre cable up the riser to each floor.

  20. Bemused @2268

    Never say never…

    How about quantum entanglement (no medium at all) in combination with conventional transmission to support the decoding… I guessing most of the information goes through the quantum part of the channel

  21. Steely’s not a troll, he believes what he says, and he’s stating it in a way that isn’t blatantly provoking people (even though, imo, a lot of what he’s saying is wrong)

  22. E. G. Theodore@2279

    Bemused @2268

    Never say never…

    How about quantum entanglement (no medium at all) in combination with conventional transmission to support the decoding… I guessing most of the information goes through the quantum part of the channel

    Yeah, right.
    Come around in your tardis any time in the next 50 years and install one please.

    Right here and now, and for the foreseeable future, fibre offers the highest data transmission capability. Copper cables and any form of wireless will never match it.

  23. TBA @2272

    Of course with FTTB someone needs to own the active equipment in the basement. That entity (whoever it is) has a level of monopoly control over the provision of Internet services to the building’s residents.

    Interesting how the supposedly free-market Right create monopolies wherever they go.

  24. hmm
    [
    Dave Donovan @davrosz
    So, the ABC has now removed all tech articles written by Nick Ross. Sounds like they have something to hide.
    5:37 PM – 15 Jan 2016 ]

  25. [“So, the ABC has now removed all tech articles written by Nick Ross. Sounds like they have something to hide.”]

    OR alternatively… Nick Ross has something to hide.

    BTW, I’ve read his articles before and remember how I said NBN supporters treated it like a cult? Yeah.. well Nick Ross is like the Jim Jones of the cult.

    Don’t drink the cool aide folks.

  26. bloody hell Australia in 1951 imagine you poor sods you would probable be rounded up as communists at the very least have a dossier on you, look how far we have come:)

  27. [ I would have loved to take them all but we just cant. ]

    I know, lets send daH ScoMo do a deal with Cambodia where we pay them a few tens of millions so they take them…or at least 4…….hmmmmmm??

  28. Steely, 2295

    [I have heard a similar argument about the 2nd amendment about it being enshrined in the constitution its an amendment, amend it.]

    The point is they haven’t amended it, much like they haven’t left the Convention. If the Coalition wants to they should unsign (or however one gets out of international UN treaties)

  29. [ OR alternatively… Nick Ross has something to hide. ]

    Yup, that makes perfect sense in TBA world.

    Ross has something to hide and so the organisation he is in conflict with takes steps to help him hide it.

    After what he “has to hide” has already been in the public domain for several years, AND after today where a load of people from Whirlpool at least were downloading and saving articles by Ross. 🙂

    Seriously, looking at some of the stuff by you today TBA, what have you been toking??

  30. The Cambodia deal is all part of the you will never get too Australia mantra, hard hurtful cruel but necessary. And this refugee gig is expensive 70 000000 .7 billion for 12 000 Syrian refugees.

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