Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria

The latest Newspoll result from Victoria finds the year-old Labor government returning to earth with a thud – although Liberal leader Matthew Guy doesn’t appear to be making a favourable impression either.

The first Victorian state voting intention result from Newspoll since Galaxy took it over suggests Daniel Andrews’ Labor government lost a lot of gloss over the second half of last year. Conducted through November and December from a sample of 1205, the poll credits Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 52-48, compared with a honeymoon high of 58-42 in the previous Newspoll from May and June. The primary votes are 39% for Labor (down two), 43% for the Coalition (up eight) and 12% for the Greens (down two). Both leaders have copped sobering results on their personal ratings, with Daniel Andrews’ approval down eight to 43% and disapproval up seven to 39%, while Matthew Guy is respectively down eight to 27% and up eleven to 40%. Andrews’ lead as preferred premier is at 43-26, down from 48-24. Full display of results from The Australian here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

14 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria”

    [Malcolm Turnbull bounce for Victorian Liberals: Newspoll
    The Australian
    January 12, 2016 12:00AM
    Rick Wallace Journalist Melbourne

    The Coalition in Victoria has posted a huge surge in support following the federal leadership change to Malcolm Turnbull, drawing within striking distance of Labor and Premier Daniel ­Andrews, whose honeymoon ­appears to be over.

    The Coalition primary vote in the most recent Newspoll — taken exclusively for The Australian — jumped from a low of 35 per cent in May-June to 43 per cent in November-December.

    Over the same period, Labor’s vote dropped from 41 per cent to 39 per cent.

    Although Labor’s primary vote is still above the level that won it the election in November 2014, it equates to a slender 52 per cent-48 per cent lead for the government on a two-party preferred basis with preference flows based on the election.

    That is a dramatic turnaround from the previous poll, taken in the middle of last year, that gave Daniel Andrews’s ALP a crushing 58 per cent to 42 lead over its conservative opponents.

    The poll — the second conducted since the Andrews government won office — accords with internal chatter in the state Liberal Party, which has noted a bounce in its fortunes under the Prime Minister and saw Tony ­Abbott’s presence as “toxic” to its electoral prospects.


    With no single dominant issue on the state agenda between the past two Newspolls, the boost for the Coalition will be largely ­attributed to Mr Turnbull seizing the federal Liberal leadership. Federal Newspoll figures have ­revealed Mr Abbott has long polled badly in Victoria.

    Proponents of the federal factors theory can also point to the personal numbers in this state poll, which offered no real bounce for Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. He saw satisfaction with his performance slump by eight percentage points to just 27 per cent, while 40 per cent of voters were dissatisfied with his performance.


    The Newspoll results were based on 1200 interviews in November and December with voters in metropolitan and regional areas, with the data weighted to reflect the population distribution. The polls carries a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.]
    Not a snap poll, its data from the last two months, probably done at the same time as when fed polling is done.

  2. Well, the honeymoon period had to end at some point. If Andrews can keep the figures approximately here for his term, that’s not a bad thing.

  3. Victorian labor governments always get Bolshie to the end. Just think of Kirner. What’s surprising is how Bolshie this one started – blowing 1bn on a road contract, public holidays for afl etc. it will all end in tears.

  4. Less damage than expected from the Turnbull switch, considering the magnitude of the Federal swing in Victoria was massive.

    Either way, the Victorian state election is so far away that the Turnbull effect shouldn’t be considered – his party will have got sick of him long before then.

  5. ESJ @ 4

    The money which had to be paid to get out of the east-west toll road contract is entirely the fault of the previous Coalition government and its scandalous manoeuvrings to try to wedge Labor.

    In its shameful rush to get the contacts signed before the caretaker period, the then government caved in to every demand of the contractors, particularly the notorious “side letter”, which guaranteed that the taxpayers would have to fork out extra compensation, over and above any normal legal requirement.

    As for your assertion that Joan Kirner was “Bolshie” – words fail me.


    [If you can’t be with the govt you love, love the one you’re with
    Myriam Robin | Jan 13, 2016 1:04PM

    Most voters seem pretty content with their current state leaders, according to Essential.


    In Victoria, Daniel “Dan” Andrews runs a government that’s grown in popularity since it swept to power in November 2014. Labor leads 53%-47% , an improvement on its 52%-48% result in the election.]

    Full data in this link

  7. ‘Today’s commentary in The Australian gives the NSW government an A for education. Yesterday’s gave the SA government a B. Monday’s gave the Victorian government a C for health and education (which for some inexplicable reason were combined). The rating for Victoria was so absurd that I penned a letter to the editor:
    I’m glad Rick Wallace and John Ferguson never marked my work (“ANDREWS REPORT CARD FOR 2015”/“Turnbull bounce for Victorian Liberals”, 12/1). They give the Victorian government a C for education when that government has found the $800 million missing Gonski money, put some $747 million into disadvantaged students (with some schools getting several hundred thousand extra), for the first time ever funded secondary schools to bring every student behind at the end of primary school up to standard, started a record program of capital investment in both government and non-government schools, legislated ongoing funding for non-government schools, set wide-ranging targets for educational achievement beyond the usual numeracy and literacy ones, replaced special religious instruction, done by just a few students, with general religious education for all students, abandoned the previous government’s plan to replace locally elected school councils with government-appointed district boards, re-invested in TAFE, restored elected students and staff to university councils, funded a better student-teacher ratio in kindergartens and commenced a potentially life-changing review of early childhood education. I’d give the government an A for its first year – and my students used to claim I was a hard marker.

    ‘Yours sincerely,

    ‘Chris Curtis

    ‘Emailed to
    As If that’s only a C, what’s an A?’

    It was not published.

    Anyone who wants to see what the Victorian government is doing in education can go to the Education State website or the various ministerial media release sites:,, and

    I have been recording a history of education in Victoria but can no longer do so as that site has been upgraded so that it is impossible to post to it via my browser. It is at:

  8. Australian’s report card on Andrews government was a joke. Anyone that is not rusted on can tell you that he is doing a decent job. Australian and Herald Sun hate his guts because he is a progressive premier. After 4 years of a do-nothing government its good to see Victoria is once again moving forward.

  9. Today’s Herald Sun has an article by Kevin Donnelly that repeats the myth regarding the Christmas carol ban. I have twice posted a correction and it has twice been removed. That is why people believe things that are not true:

    Herald Sun Comments 2016 01 19 1
    (Discounting Christianity in our schools denies history)


    Kevin Donnelly’s claim that ‘what is described as “praise music (that) glorifies god or a particular religious figure or deity regardless of music style” cannot be part of a normal school activity’ is untrue. As the education minister, James Merlino, said:
    ‘This time of year is often referred to as the “silly season” and I haven’t seen a better example of this than the article entitled Christmas Carol Ban Is Out Of Tune With Society by president of the Young Liberal Movement of Australia, Simon Breheny.
    ‘This ridiculous piece is all part of a Liberal Party campaign to convince Victorians that we have banned Christmas carols in schools. Not only is this untrue, it is a shameful attempt to drive a wedge in our community.
    ‘Victorian schoolchildren — like my own daughters who attend government schools — can sing any Christmas carol they want at their school.
    ‘From classics such as Away in a Manger, Silent Night, and Oh Come All Ye Faithful, to Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer and Jingle Bells.
    ‘The guidance given to Victorian principals this year was clear: schools can put up Christmas decorations or pictures of Santa, sing carols or decorate Christmas trees on school grounds, as these items have a cultural place in Australian society.
    ‘The guidance also stated that other activities, such as colourful celebrations during Diwali and candle lighting during Hanukkah, were not banned.
    ‘However, if an outside provider such as Access Ministries, or a volunteer group, wishes to come to a school and sing religious songs, this is considered Special Religious Instruction and must be done before school, after school, or during lunch time.
    ‘The guidelines exist to make it clear that there is no proselytising in Victorian government schools.

    Any Victorian government school that bans Christmas carols, including religious ones, is acting contrary to government policy.

    Nor does the removal of Special Religious Instruction from class time mean the end of education in religion in schools. SRI was done by a minority of students in a minority of schools. Now all students in all schools will do general religious education. Parents who want a more specific religious education may send their children to religious schools, most of whose funding comes from the government. In fact, James Merlino introduced the Andrews Labor government’s legislation to guarantee the public funding of non-government schools within three months of the 2014 election.

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