Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 44 of 47
1 … 43 44 45 … 47

  2. Get back to you in a couple of weeks poroti, you will find this is a fizzer, but I will make a point of asking you where this is at in a couple of weeks, remember if it is true $100 to a charity of your choice, want to do the same? Thought not.

  3. I wonder what Edwina is hoping to achieve. Edwina seems to delight in niggling negativity about Labor, references to real and alleged misdeeds / failings of Labor figures, about the ‘hive mind’, whatever. It’s easy but pointless to come up with counterexamples reflecting on the Right. He/ she never engages in ideas, with what he/she hopes for Australia’s future.

    So what is his/her* motive? Attention-seeking? Trolling? Sap the morale of Labor supporters, with a view to reducing volunteers and donations?

    Another poster here a while back made a convincing case for Edwina being a former Labor insider, who became disillusioned and/or was seduced by the Dark Side. Has he/she turned on his/her former compadres? Captain Chaos, sowing what he/she hopes is doubt and despair?

    A challenge, Edwina: tell us what you believe in and try to convince us that we’re wrong.

    He/she changed his/her online gender a couple of years ago

  4. Fibre to the premises is a no brainer. The Liberals went all out to push shite technology. Why is it so ? They are not that dumb which leaves ……..

  7. Given the way in which the Liberal Party in Victoria is having to repay public monies which appear to have been diverted in accordance with a fraudulent scheme devised by their former State Director, I would have thought that a bit of discretion would, for Edwina, be the better part of valour just now.

  8. poroti

    [Not if the corporate culture is all about increasing/maintaining funding etc. That is not so hard to believe.]

    Yep. This seems to be a major motivation.

  10. steve777@2153: that was probably me you are referring to. I don’t consider it a theory: it seems pretty obvious to me that this poster is a disillusioned former Labor person. S/he seems to know a lot about the workings of the NSW ALP a way back. I don’t know about he/she being an “insider”, but almost certainly an active member.

    The original Edward St John was a small “l” Liberal member for Warringah, pressured our of the party by precursors of the Bishop-Abbott Right faction, most particularly in relation to his anti-apartheid position. I’m not sure why the poster has chosen to name themselves after him: maybe through a sense of being an outcast.

    But then I’m not one to talk about other posters picking unlikely names…

  13. TheCrank @2001

    In fact WA was the most mendicant of the five mainland states every year between 1942 (when the Commonwealth took over income taxation and massively increased grants) and 1984, and was thereafter mendicant to a slightly lesser degree until 2008. The state of WA is a confirmed and persistent mendicant and their frequent accusations of mendicancy in others are hypocritical as well as mendacious.

  16. So now we have similarities with the Detention Center debacle (with Broadspectrum taking over no doubt something Broadspectrum cooked up with the Coalition Party – when Morrison said he received a “report” in 2014).

    Broadspectrum = Detention Centers.
    Telstra = NBN.

  18. zoidlord

    [
    Turnbull is just as bad as Abbott:]
    Turnbull is far worse than Abbott. His NBN hi jinks will cost the nation and its future far more than any Abbott lunacy. All done just to get his arse on the PM’s chair.

  19. [“Clements had his actions before a court, this case was settled. The next day he was forced to resign, end of story.”]

    Hows Briggs court case going? Oh that’s right there isn’t any.

    END. OF. STORY.

  20. Turnbull and Abbott have a very big and very bad thing in common. They were both obsessively focussed on getting the job of PM, but had no real plan of what to do once they got it, other than to act out their caricature of what a Prime Minister should do and be.

    I think that Bill Shorten has clearer policy objectives as to what a Labor government hopes to achieve, but I could be wrong.

  21. I dont perform on demand Steve777.

    I am but a humble seeker after truth and detest hypocrisy. Tories will always be Tories and don’t pretend to be anything else.

  22. [The Coalition’s strategy following Turnbull’s demise as opposition leader in 2009 was almost entirely negative. In 2013 this was enough to win office, given the scale of Labor’s internal problems and inability to explain its economic management.

    Yet this was no substitute for an effective governing strategy. ]

  23. [“Fibre to the premises is a no brainer.”]

    If I can deliver the same speed for 1/3rd the cost and twice as fast is that a “no brainer”?

    Or are you another NBN FTTH cultist? Bow before your God… no brains needed.

  24. [Hows Briggs court case going? Oh that’s right there isn’t any.]

    But there should be. Another Abbott-driven conspiracy with his AFP mates.

  26. @TBA/2169

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/kristina-keneally-calls-for-jamie-clements-head-over-stefanie-jones-sex-harassment-scandal/news-story/c14d10bac732d7aa7b126ab7122a9dff

    “There are moves today by senior Labor officials to launch an internal charge against Mr Clements for “bringing the party into disrepute” which could force him out of the job, Labor sources said.”

    TBA, you are proud to have someone still in the political party that has done a alleged crime?

    And yet, the Labor Party has done more publicly and privately on this instance than the liberal party.

    When will Turnbull force Briggs to resign ?

  27. The Troll’s dog:

    [I am but a humble seeker after truth and detest hypocrisy.]

    A mouthful of Marius Symphony Shiraz 2004 just finished up on the wall.

  28. [“Yet this was no substitute for an effective governing strategy. “]

    Did a pretty good job at stopping the boats. Let’s look at those numbers to refresh our memories.

    2013 Illegal Boat Arrivals – 20,500

    2015 Illegal Boat Arrivals – 0. Zero. None. Zippo. Zil. Nilch.

    Now that’s what I call a policy success.

    PS. If I have to post my comments any slower, I might as well send them via Aussie Post Mail

  29. TrueBlueAussie
    [
    “Fibre to the premises is a no brainer.”

    If I can deliver the same speed for 1/3rd the cost and twice as fast is that a “no brainer]
    Please explain to we peasants how copper will provide 1 gigabyte upload and download speeds ?

  30. Also TBA:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jamie-briggs-delayed-his-resignation-as-christmas-gift-to-family/news-story/071e692c697649408fb1011f03172267

    “Mr Turnbull called Mr Briggs to a meeting in Sydney on ­December 23 to discuss the findings of the independent investigator’s report, telling him he needed to resign “as soon as possible”.”

    “However, Mr Briggs did not want to subject his family to the fallout on Christmas Day, and also believed the move would be viewed cynically by the public.”

    The onus is on Briggs and Turnbull to do the right thing.

    Btw, this is another distraction, to deter the current issues at hand.

    Typical class A TBA idiot.

  32. Poroti @2154

    Fibre to the distribution point (FTTdp) is quite neat technically. There is a “micro-node” every eight or so premises, with copper into the premises themselves. It has the advantage that power from the premises (via the copper) is sufficient to power the micro-node.

    One of the big advantages of FTTP (over even FTTdp) is promotion of competition in service provision. With the original FTTP up to six services could be delivered into the premises, with each potentially coming from a separate supplier. Hence one could (for example) get different kinds of services from different suppliers instead of being locked in to a bundled supply, or could even source multiple services of the same type (but with different properties. e.g. one might have a high bandwidth but high latency service and a low latency but low bandwidth service and a router that selects the service to use on a per application basis).

    Sadly competition isn’t that popular in some parts.

  33. TrueBlueAussie@2173

    “Fibre to the premises is a no brainer.”


    If I can deliver the same speed for 1/3rd the cost and twice as fast is that a “no brainer”?

    Or are you another NBN FTTH cultist? Bow before your God… no brains needed.

    Your problem of course is that you can’t.

  34. E. G. Theodore

    [With the original FTTP up to six services could be delivered into the premises, with each potentially coming from a separate supplier]

    Ta muchly. I had not thought of that aspect before.

  35. @E.G. Theodore/2182

    Yes, while that is true, it still has the same issues as other xDSL networks.

    1. Backhaul.
    2. Your remaining copper.
    3. Micro-nodes require power.
    4. Redundancy or lack of.

  36. [If I can deliver the same speed for 1/3rd the cost and twice as fast is that a “no brainer”?]

    already double the promised cost and that’s without the exponentially growing cost of maintenance and replacement of the aging copper, currently $100million a year

  38. @TrueBlueAussie/2173

    You can’t and the 1/3 cost is the lie that Malcolm Turnbull dreamed up with his current NBN cost blowouts to $56 B.

  39. Given the choice between a quality piece if jarrah furniture and cheap melamine, the Liberal would choose the melamine. Then spend more replacing/maintaining the melamine they would have for the life time piece of jarrah.

    They have applied that same thinking to the NBN

  41. Oh dear Malcolm lied.

    [In the government’s first major broken promise on the NBN since the election, NBN Co has said that it will be unable to deliver 25Mbps to all Australians by the end of 2016, instead stating that approximately 43 percent of premises will have access to 25Mbps download speeds at the end of 2016]

  42. Strong UnionsStrongCountry

    [Given the choice between a quality piece if jarrah furniture and cheap melamine, the Liberal would choose the melamine]
    Heavens no. They would pick the Jarrah and get the taxpayers to pay for it.

  43. The Truth is that NBN’ers don’t care about other technology alternatives even if they can deliver the same speed, because NBN’ers are paramount to a cult.

    Fibre is their God. They worship it. They don’t care if anything is better. They don’t care if anything is cheaper. They don’t care if anything can deliver the same speed.

    If the bits and bytes aren’t coming over Fibre they don’t want it. Bits and Bytes coming over another technology are blasphemous even if they are doing it at the same speed or faster.

    Such, such idiocy.

  44. $ 56 billion plus at least $100 million a year in maintenance of aging rotten copper.

    After paying Telstra $10 billion for the rotten poorly maintained copper, that Howard sold to Telstra in pristine condition for $3 bn, Turnbull has signed a multi billion dollar contract with Telstra for them the maintain and replace the crap he bought

  45. Well some people are reporting they are getting better than 100Mbit/sec on FTTN, which folks means.. they are actually getting faster than FTTH can deliver to a retail customer.

    You would think NBN’ers would be happy about this fact because FTTN is much faster to roll out.. but alas… the cultism doesn’t allow them to be. Sad really.

  46. ruawake

    [approximately 43 percent of premises will have access to 25Mbps download speeds at the end of 2016]
    Ah, “access to”.Up there with “up to” speed claims.

  47. TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Friday, January 15, 2016 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    [The Truth is that NBN’ers don’t care about other technology alternatives]

    The truth is people want something better than the aging rotten copper that Turnbull paid $10 billion for…instead of buying and installing $10 billion worth of fibre

  49. [Well some people are reporting they are getting better than 100Mbit/sec on FTTN,]
    Some people are reporting sightings of Bigfoot.

  50. [Well some people are reporting they are getting better than 100Mbit/sec on FTTN]

    Some people claim they have been abducted by aliens.

Comments Page 44 of 47
1 … 43 44 45 … 47

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *