The final update of BludgerTrack for the year comes off the back of strong results for the Coalition from both Essential Research and Roy Morgan, resulting in a slight movement of 0.3% on the two-party preferred aggregate, and a seat gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Further:
• Labor’s Anna Burke has announced she will bow out at the next election, creating a vacancy in the eastern Melbourne seat of Chisholm, which she retained in 2013 with a margin of 1.6%. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the seat is reserved for Burke’s Right faction, but that this still leaves room for a turf war between the National Union of Workers and the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, both of whom are credited with about 35% of the seat’s branch membership. Monash councillor Stefanie Perri is likely to be the candidate of the NUW, while the SDA is intriguingly linked with a possible candidacy for Dimity Paul, who has been central to Victorian Labor’s recent internal crises as the complainant in the bullying action against her then employer, Adem Somyurek. This led to the latter’s dismissal as Victorian Small Business Minister and a split within the SDA sub-faction. The NUW’s prospects may stand to be boosted by a rapprochement with the Shorten-Conroy forces of the Right, which would bring them back under the umbrella of its “stability pact” with the Socialist Left.
• The Liberal National Party’s state executive voted 14-12 on Monday to block Ian Macfarlane’s move from the Liberal to the Nationals, raising questions about his future in the Toowoomba-based seat of Groom. Macfarlane threatened to quit politics if the move was rejected, and there is some concern in the Coalition that he may do so in the new year. Given that the state executive vote followed a 102-35 vote in favour of the move from the party’s Groom divisional council, which would dominate any preselection ballot, there appears to be the potential for a turf war in the seat between the party’s Liberal and Nationals components. I had a piece in Crikey on the subject that was run shortly before the state executive vote on Monday.
• Labor’s preselection for the seat of Robertson on the New South Wales Central Coast has been won by Anne Charlton, the chief-of-staff to Deb O’Neill, who held the seat from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, and is now a Senator. Charlton, who has gained media attention for her admission that she was addicted to heroin at the age of 16, won a local preselection vote by 98 to 72 ahead of Belinda Neal, who had a rocky ride as the seat’s member from 2007 to 2010, when she lost preselection to O’Neill. The seat was won for the Liberals at the 2013 election by Lucy Wicks, who holds it on a margin of 3.0%, which the proposed redistribution would nudge up to 3.2%.
• Also preselected by Labor in New South Wales over the weekend were Emma Husar, a disability services advocate who ran in Penrith at the state election in March, to run against Fiona Scott in Lindsay; and Fiona Philips, a tutor at the University of Wollongong and TAFE who ran in South Coast, to run against Ann Sudmalis in Gilmore.
• Crikey has a Christmas offer of a discounted annual subscription for its daily email and subscriber content, at $180 rather than the usual $219, plus a bonus $125 in books, DVDs and a 30-day Inkl premium subscription providing access to the Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, The Atlantic and more.
The Liberals and their paymasters aren’t going to stop at Sunday penalty rates.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/fire-damages-auburn-property-belonging-salim-mehajers-sister-20151226-glvasm.html
Oh dear!
MTBW
I bet the arson squad are all over that like a rash!
BK
What a wanker!
Yes, MTBW, demonstrate your famous empathy by rejoicing that someone who is related to someone you don’t like has suffered a setback.
The point here is that it appears to be an insurance job right?
It is the second fire of “suspicious circumstances the family has experienced in the last year.
alias
with ‘appears to be’ being the operative words.
Why would anyone here give a toss?
Shaun Marsh must be feeling a bit down today.
BK
Past two years, and it doesn’t appear that any actual charges were laid the first time, which suggests that the arson squad didn’t find anything actually suspicious (of course, they could still be investigating, but one would expect that two years is long enough to determine cause).
Zoomster.. I don’t especially give a toss. The chap has achieved a very high profile of late through conspicuous, extravagant living, so that extent it’s mildly interesting if perhaps he has overstretched himself financially to a point where it is necessary (some inferences here) to get money from arson insurance jobs. I hasten to add, for the purposes of protecting the blog from any hint of libel litigation, that there is anything but hard evidence of same.
I happen to know that part of Sydney quite well (though I’m Melbourne based) and have followed this character with a greater level of interest than most. Some of the shenanigans around dodgy planning decisions and the like involving the local council, real estate types and the likes of this chap are eye-popping and reminiscent of days gone by in parts of Melbourne.
alias:
Turnbull hasn’t done anything yet except ride the wave of relief that Abbott has gone. Therefore there’s been nothing really for him to convince voters of.
If he’s waffly now what’ll he be like when really put to the test?
I have no idea who that Salim bloke is. I assume he’s some kind of Sydney identity, therefore bears no relevance to anyone outside NSW.
alias
…which doesn’t explain why his sins are being visited upon his sister, who is the owner of the property.
I’d hate to be judged on the basis of activities indulged in by other members of my family. Her guilt or innocence should not be automatically presumed simply because of whom she is related to, surely?
Confessions,
If it were only relief that Abbott is gone, then you would expect Shorten’s poll numbers to have remained somewhat similar post-Abbott to pre-Abbott.
They’re not.
By a long shot.
On when the waffly factor might become a negative: hard to say. If the Liberals are smart, they have an “anti-waffle” unit set up and ready to curb this tendency, especially when they get anywhere near an election.
In my view, Australians like to feel somewhat proud that their national leader cuts an impressive figure – whether at home or on the world stage; that the leader is articulate; that the leader can do nuance and sophistication; that the leader is not an extremist.
Turnbull ticks these boxes, like him or loathe him. If his waffling starts to grate among some voters, that might well bring him down a peg or two. But it would take something of Godwin Grech proportions – some really serious political misjudgement – to take a heavier toll.
And here the distinction between government and opposition is crucial. In government, Turnbull is surrounded by advisers, smart public servants – not to forget the chastening experience of having stuffed up as Opposition leader.
Zoomster
In many families with heritages in more traditional societies, family is far more significant. I’m not just talking about the honoured society and the like. It’s just more significant – far more significant – than is family for the likes of Wasps, who more often than not are estranged from siblings and other close family members.
BB @2687
For all of 2015 you have been espousing the merits of Shorten’s political strategy of a small target and picking the battles he wishes to fight on his own terms, aka the Montgomery of Alamein. Well this may have worked with Abbott but it isn’t the strategy to use with Turnbull because as you correctly state the voters have been conditioned to believe that Labor in opposition can act as a safety check on the excesses of the Hard Right. Shorten can’t do a Keating on penalty rates as he is rightly committed to defending them unconditionally. He needs to switch to Julius Caesar mode in the Battle of Alesia where the Romans were outnumbered by the Gauls by 4 to 1(coincidentally similar numbers to PPM ). Towards the end of the battle the Gauls tried to break through the Roman lines with a relief force of 60,000. Caesar personally led force of 6000 cavalry to attack the Gallic relief force from the rear. This action surprised both attackers and defenders. Seeing their leader undergoing such risk, the defending Romans redoubled their efforts and the Gauls soon panicked and were almost annihilated.
That is what Shorten needs to do to Turnbull. Take risk, attack, attack, attack on policy areas of Climate Change, Industrial Relations, Health and Education. Every Sunday leading up to the election he should be doing a presser at a cafe, takeaway or restaurant on penalty rates. Likewise on those other policy fronts. He needs to shake the voters out of their complacency.They need to know that Labor can’t save them from opposition no matter how hard they try as they wont be the Government. He needs to be in voters’ faces almost daily. Is he capable of going into a Caesar attack mode. Nope, nope, nope. He is too beholden to the Sussex St powerbrokers who are more interested in preselecting their mates in winnable marginal seats rather than being totally hungry in winning the election with the best candidates possible.
[If it were only relief that Abbott is gone, then you would expect Shorten’s poll numbers to have remained somewhat similar post-Abbott to pre-Abbott.]
I don’t think that necessarily follows at all. Clearly voters are prepared to give the govt a go now that Abbott has been ditched. But that will change once people realise it is the same govt just with a prettier face, if Turnbull is unable to convince them of the need for his party’s policy agenda.
I’m yet to be convinced he has the ability to do this, esp given the interviews I’ve seen him do have been waffly and unconvincing.
zoomster
His sister is in deep trouble as well as he is she is his partner in crime so to speak of course she wouldn’t have any enemies would she.
Surprised to see you showing empathy for someone.
MTBW
[His sister is in deep trouble as well as he is she is his partner in crime so to speak of course she wouldn’t have any enemies would she]
Has she been charged with anything? Or are you just presuming she is a ‘partner in crime’ because of who she is?
alias
ah, so now we’re chucking a bit of racism in as well. Way to go.
Racism?!
I’m all for close families. It’s a positive attribute.
Confessions:
You really think that if Turnbull is simply enjoying a post-Abbott relief rally and some associated goodwill that Bill Shorten’s approval levels would at or near the lowest level of any Labor opposition leader in the history of Newspoll?
Analogy.
All the rich and wealthy are sitting at the dinner table eating, the poor are surviving on the scraps that fall from the table.
The poor are starving.
The solution is to put more food on the table for the wealthy so there is the chance more crumbs will fall for the poor.
zoomster
Good to see you having some empathy for someone you don’t usually show that side of of yourself.
BTW the property is not a home it is a commercial property of three buildings which makes it even more interesting.
Payout from the insurance company perhaps?
Yes alias, it is indeed possible that is the case.
Aussie Achmad
Good one. The quotation I like along similar lines – and I can’t remember where this is from – goes something like this:
“What kind of tax and redistribution system would you design if you were to learn of your position in society, educational opportunities and wealth only after designing that system?”
MTBW@2724
The tenants will probably be the most adversely affected.
What happens to their businesses?
bemused
God alone knows but you can bet that the money will end up in Mehajar’s family.
alias
it becomes racism when you assume that because someone has a certain surname they automatically are likely to have a certain set of attributes. It has nothing to do with whether those attributes are good or bad.
I have what could be described as a ‘funny name’. As a result, all sorts of judgements are made about me. I get a bit tired of explaining that my mother had a penchant for exotic names, and that I’m in fact ‘just as Australian’ as the rest of the population.
You’ve made judgements about this woman on the basis of her name and who she is related to.
MTBW
so more judgements made now on the basis of what type of property was destroyed.
I’d prefer to leave this sort of thing to the police and the courts.
It is, of course, quite possible that one of the tenants caused the fire. It is also quite possible that the fire was accidental.
Zoomster
I disagree. There is no racism at all to say, by way of a simple example: People with a Chinese cultural heritage, in general, ascribe a very high level of importance to education. That is not to say some with that heritage do not, or that many others from different heritages do not share this trait. If you’re inclined, read this:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CE2DA143EF932A2575BC0A9639C8B63
zoomster
Nobody is asking you to do anything get over yourself.
alias
yes, but you took it a step further, and implied that because of her cultural background, it was more likely that she was guilty.
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 2m2 minutes ago
More than 100,000 flee El Niño flooding in Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay http://trib.al/FxIVTuP
MTBW
ah, so now we’ve reached the personal abuse level – which means you can’t defend yourself, but you also can’t admit you’re wrong.
alias@2731
I agree. There are cultural differences.
But so what? That is an observation not a criticism.
I tend to rejoice in the differences.
zoomster@2733
That is a product of an over-active imagination.
Zoomster,
What I suspect here, based on reading quite a bit about her brother is as follows, though I add the important caveat that of this is proved, and he is entitled to presumed innocent unless hard evidence is presented that demonstrates what I surmise is in fact the case:
I suspect that having spent too much money on lavish weddings and the like, this chap, or those associated with him, have resorted to setting fire to buildings within their network in order to get insurance payouts to remedy their financial position.
If that is correct, the sister would have little or no choice in the matter, and is almost certainly not culpable in any direct sense.
“none of this is proved”
The facts are —
1. There was a ‘suspicious fire’ at one of the brother’s properties nearly two years ago.
2. The brother has not been charged with anything. So the fire may not have been suspicious at all.
3. There is a ‘suspicious fire’ at one of his sister’s properties.
4. She is his sister, therefore – even though he hasn’t been found to have been responsible for the previous fire, let alone charged with arson – she must be guilty.
Basically, people don’t like her brother, so she must be guilty.
Bemused:
I too rejoice in the differences. But to pretend they don’t exist is nutty.
alias,
Your, “I’m not a racist but,” defence is rather weak.
Zoomster has pinged you right proper.
You are a racist butt!
[I suspect that having spent too much money on lavish weddings and the like, this chap, or those associated with him, have resorted to setting fire to buildings within their network in order to get insurance payouts to remedy their financial position.]
I cannot imagine any situation where I would let another family member involve me in a crime to pay for debts that they had wracked up.
I presume that means my family isn’t particularly close, which would be a surprise to those who knew us.
It’s possible that Turnbull has turned up the waffle output simply to further distinguish himself from the slogan-stylist, Abbott.
Turnbull can talk at length. It’s doubtless tedious. But it’s not disturbing in the way that Abbott’s incessant verbal uppercuts, left jabs and right hooks were disturbing. It’s possible that after at least 8 years of adrenaline-charged politics, Turnbull is now cultivating the long siesta as the new mood of public affairs.
Howard set out to do the same sort of thing in 1996, revealing his greatest ambition for the country was for us all to feel relaxed and comfortable.
We are all still exhaling after holding our collective breath for a seeming-eternity.
[We are all still exhaling after holding our collective breath for a seeming-eternity.]
I think so too.
2738
alias
Maybe this family are the victims here rather than the perpetrators of crimes. The less we speculate, the better, I dare say.
A relaxed and comfortable Australia under Turnbull: the old ‘frog in boiling water’s effect.
2747
Sohar
Quite so.
Briefly.. Fair point
briefly@2746
Yeah, like the Obeid family.