Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland

Newspoll’s results for the final quarter of 2015 finds a slight drop in the Labor government’s lead, but also a deterioration in the standing of Lawrence Springborg as Opposition Leader.

Newspoll will be punctuating the Christmas-New Year polling pause a little over the next fortnight or so with state results, which are aggregated from the polling conducted over two to three months, and the usual quarterly breakdown of federal polling results by state, age and gender. First off the mark is the Queensland state result for October-December, compiled from a sample of 1703, which credits the Labor government with a lead of 52-48, down from 53-47 in the previous quarter. The primary votes are Labor 41% (steady), Liberal National Party 39% (up one) and Greens 8% (down one). Annastacia Palaszczuk’s approval rating is down three to 50%, but the report does not relate her disapproval rating (it was 33% last time). Lawrence Springborg is down two on approval to 32% and up four on disapproval to 47%, and his deficit compared with Palaszczuk as preferred premier is out from 49-28 to 50-27. According to Michael McKenna’s write-up of the results in The Australian, Springborg is “almost certain to face a leadership challenge early next year, with a ginger group within the LNP planning to roll Mr Springborg by March”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland”

  1. The Borg was always a stop gap measure. There until the Libs could get their takeover of the LNP machine completed. McIvor’s appointment to Aust Post by Turnbull was the last cog to put in place.

    Bye Bye Borg – the ultimate opposition leader and loser.

  2. lizzie from the previous blog:

    ‘ Iā€™m going to make three: mango, passionfruit & ginger, and spiced blueberry. Iā€™m also boasting :)’

    I made Spicy Cajun Prawn Stew yesterday. Delicious! šŸ˜€
    Last year for Christmas I made Lemon Shortbread and Wheat Free Shortbread for my friend who is Gluten Free. Then I gave them away as presents. And an Iced Gingerbread House. It took forever and I’m never going to do it again!

    This year I’m doing the traditional Jamie Oliver Stuffed Chook because my family don’t eat red meat, pork, ham or lamb. They eat Fish but I have never been able to summon the enthusiasm for boning a fresh fish. Plus my youngest doesn’t like Prawns, he says they’re too chewy. :}

    Then for dessert we will have Date Pudding with Toffee and Creme Fraiche.

  3. Lawrence Springborg and Bill Shorten are in a hopeless position. They need to step aside and give someone else a go. In the Qld LNP’s case I don’t know if there’s anyone better but in the federal ALP’s case there is Melissa Clarke and Tanya Plibersek, both of whom present better than the incumbent. Melissa Clarke would be particularly good because she actually defends Labor values instead of embracing bad conservative policy a lot of the time.

  4. @Nicholas

    Your post is quite laughable. Firstly drawing parallels with Shorten and Springborg is ridiculous; Springborg has contested three elections as opposition leader already, and is now ready to be standing for a fourth election. Shorten has not even contested one election.

    In terms of changing leader for the LNP, it really is a case of insanity if they stay with Springborg. It’s been proven time and time again (lossed elections in 2004, 2006, and 2009) that voters don’t care for him and it’s not a matter of if he is disposed but when.

    Labor will not change leaders because it’s counter-productive. To change leader just reinforces the perception that Labor changes leaders at a whim from the Gillard-Rudd years. Also Shorten’s is the best bet even with the odds stacked against Labor. And eager supporters who want pre-maturely burn through political careers such as Tanya Pilbersek, just to get a bump in the polls, can forget it.

  5. William

    (repost from main thread)

    If you are about, you might be interested in an article by Hyland (second page of the Weekend Fin) on a UQ algorithm which mines social media and which claimed 95% accuracy in predicting the Queensland State election outcome.

  6. Frank Nicklin lost five Queensland elections in a row (some of them badly) then won four in a row. Doubt he ever would have been kept to win any by today’s standards.

  7. It is not Plibersek’s time. Australia is not mature enough to have a female Pm. They will have another hissy fit because there leader does not have a penis. The PM can have no balls, but must have a penis. A vagina sitting in the PM’s seat is too much to bear, especially for our sainted media. We are too small minded and patriarchal to have a woman PM like India, NZ, Germany UK, Israel etc etc.

    So stop trying to throw Plibersek to the lions.

  8. @Kevin Bonham

    Fair comment about Frank Nicklin. However, politcal/media culture are less forgiving today when leaders lose elections. Look at how Kim Beazley was hounded from the media when he lost two elections and wanted to contest a thrid election. He was nicknamed the ‘two time loser’, and it’s harder to keep your credibility as leader once you have been rejected twice at the ballot box. Springborg hasn’t lossed two, he has lost three- and lost all of them to Labor on quite sizable margins too.

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