BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition

Three months on from the leadership change, the Coalition finishes the year with a crushing lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The final update of BludgerTrack for the year comes off the back of strong results for the Coalition from both Essential Research and Roy Morgan, resulting in a slight movement of 0.3% on the two-party preferred aggregate, and a seat gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Further:

• Labor’s Anna Burke has announced she will bow out at the next election, creating a vacancy in the eastern Melbourne seat of Chisholm, which she retained in 2013 with a margin of 1.6%. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the seat is reserved for Burke’s Right faction, but that this still leaves room for a turf war between the National Union of Workers and the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, both of whom are credited with about 35% of the seat’s branch membership. Monash councillor Stefanie Perri is likely to be the candidate of the NUW, while the SDA is intriguingly linked with a possible candidacy for Dimity Paul, who has been central to Victorian Labor’s recent internal crises as the complainant in the bullying action against her then employer, Adem Somyurek. This led to the latter’s dismissal as Victorian Small Business Minister and a split within the SDA sub-faction. The NUW’s prospects may stand to be boosted by a rapprochement with the Shorten-Conroy forces of the Right, which would bring them back under the umbrella of its “stability pact” with the Socialist Left.

• The Liberal National Party’s state executive voted 14-12 on Monday to block Ian Macfarlane’s move from the Liberal to the Nationals, raising questions about his future in the Toowoomba-based seat of Groom. Macfarlane threatened to quit politics if the move was rejected, and there is some concern in the Coalition that he may do so in the new year. Given that the state executive vote followed a 102-35 vote in favour of the move from the party’s Groom divisional council, which would dominate any preselection ballot, there appears to be the potential for a turf war in the seat between the party’s Liberal and Nationals components. I had a piece in Crikey on the subject that was run shortly before the state executive vote on Monday.

• Labor’s preselection for the seat of Robertson on the New South Wales Central Coast has been won by Anne Charlton, the chief-of-staff to Deb O’Neill, who held the seat from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, and is now a Senator. Charlton, who has gained media attention for her admission that she was addicted to heroin at the age of 16, won a local preselection vote by 98 to 72 ahead of Belinda Neal, who had a rocky ride as the seat’s member from 2007 to 2010, when she lost preselection to O’Neill. The seat was won for the Liberals at the 2013 election by Lucy Wicks, who holds it on a margin of 3.0%, which the proposed redistribution would nudge up to 3.2%.

• Also preselected by Labor in New South Wales over the weekend were Emma Husar, a disability services advocate who ran in Penrith at the state election in March, to run against Fiona Scott in Lindsay; and Fiona Philips, a tutor at the University of Wollongong and TAFE who ran in South Coast, to run against Ann Sudmalis in Gilmore.

• Crikey has a Christmas offer of a discounted annual subscription for its daily email and subscriber content, at $180 rather than the usual $219, plus a bonus $125 in books, DVDs and a 30-day Inkl premium subscription providing access to the Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, The Atlantic and more.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,879 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition”

  1. Airlines – It’s a huge amount of money spent on something that will only be able to utilized by a small percentage of the Canberra population.

    bemused – If you think the federal government (of either type)have any interest in spending money on Canberra you’re greatly mistaken.

  2. CTar1

    As you were lurking about in some capacity in the pom civil service back in Yes Minister days, was it close to the mark as to how the system worked ?

  3. poroti

    It’s quite different to here and not like ‘yes minister’ at all.

    The UK Cabinet Secretary is a very influential character. Him saying ‘make it so’ moves mountains very quickly.

    Also they tend not re-organise the core Civil Service to death as they do here. This means that who is responsible for what is clear.

  4. CTar1

    [The UK Cabinet Secretary]
    . Could you elaborate what the role of that position is ? It sounds pretty bland as a title but from your comment far more important .

  5. CTar1@2852

    Airlines โ€“ Itโ€™s a huge amount of money spent on something that will only be able to utilized by a small percentage of the Canberra population.

    bemused โ€“ If you think the federal government (of either type)have any interest in spending money on Canberra youโ€™re greatly mistaken.

    I think the Federal Government, which is domiciled in Canberra SHOULD be prepared to spend money on facilities to raise Canberra to the level appropriate for a national capital. It is an imposition on the residents of Canberra to expect them to do this alone.

  6. poroti – From Wiki:

    [From 1981 to 2011, the position of Cabinet Secretary has been combined with the roles of Head of the Home Civil Service and Permanent Secretary of the Cabinet Office. The first means that the Cabinet Secretary is responsible for all the civil servants of the various departments within government (except the Foreign Office), chairing the Permanent Secretaries Management Group (PSMG) which is the principal governing body of the civil service. The second means that the Cabinet Secretary is responsible for leading the government department that provides administrative support to the Prime Minister and Cabinet.]

    Politicians from Blair onwards have tried to dilute the power of the Cabinet Secretary. Blair saw Gus O’Donnell as not being ‘compliant’ enough but despite splitting the role into three on Gus’ retirement little or nothing changed.

  7. CTar1

    [From 1981 to 2011, the position of Cabinet Secretary has been combined with the roles of Head of the Home Civil Service and Permanent Secretary of the Cabinet Office]
    Ah, so a Maggie T cunning plan. What was her angle in the combination move ? Ta in advance.

  8. Air Conditioning Update.

    After much toing and froing and trying to get my headaround a subject which I previously had not more than one clue about, I and the heir and the spare have decided on this model:

    http://www.thegoodguys.com.au/lg-c50kw-h60kw-reverse-cycle-air-con-p18awn-14?CAWELAID=620013790000407995&CAGPSPN=pla&gclid=CjwKEAiA7_OzBRDA8OfT3orp51oSJACVqslIJfgqseJQXaEN92RnRI5_F6RzadWWtNHqDhadRZLw1BoCVKnw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

    With the cost of the Installation thrown in I think I’ve got it covered! ๐Ÿ˜€

    We go in to the store tomorrow to inquire about it all.

    I took Bushfire Bill’s advice and got an LG. ๐Ÿ™‚

  9. poroti

    [What was her angle in the combination move ? ]

    A lot of faith in Robert ‘Economical with the truth’ Armstrong and wanting to keep power close.

    (I worked directly with a number of them. As a Civil Servant doing this was a bit daunting as the Cabinet Secretary in his role as Head of the Civil Service was the only person who could sack you on the spot without any need to provide a reason.)

  10. Hi C@tmomma

    [ I took Bushfire Billโ€™s advice and got an LG. ]

    No experience with LG, but it looks like it will do the job. The 5 year warranty seems a good deal. Don’t be tempted to throw your money away on any “extended warranty” nonsense – they are rarely worth the paper they are printed on.

    Good luck!

  11. Interesting discussion earlier about people being innocent until proven guilty.

    As a legal principle, that’s essential in a civilised society. But it surely doesn’t extend to the judgements we make as individuals about others, especially politicians. I happen to hold, I think rightly on the objective evidence, very adverse views about the legality of the behaviour of Mrs Bronwyn Bishop and Mr Mal Brough, even though neither has so far even been charged, let alone found guilty.

    We just have to be careful about what we say publicly, lest we be sued for defamation.

  12. Player One,
    Thank you for the advice. I usually don’t fall for such things, having had to be careful with my money for such a long time. ๐Ÿ™‚

  13. C@tmomma@2863

    Player One,
    Thank you for the advice. I usually donโ€™t fall for such things, having had to be careful with my money for such a long time.

    A question about your air-conditioner that should be something you would like to know.

    How much power does it consume?

    There are figures quoted for 5KW Cooling and 6KW Heating, but I see no mention of the power consumed to achieve either of these.

  14. [“Canberra has a special status as our National Capital and I would expect it to showcase things such as a good public transport system beyond what the residents might otherwise afford.”]

    Didn’t ACT Labor spend $350,000 on a flying whale with tits?

    God they are useless with other peoples money.

  15. Cat

    If money is tight – be sure to turn the air con off when not needed. it will cost you 30-35c/hr to run (about 100-120 ordinary light bulbs).

  16. [“After much toing and froing and trying to get my headaround a subject which I previously had not more than one clue about, I and the heir and the spare have decided on this model:”]

    Haven’t talked to an Air Con guy about what model to buy and are going on gut feeling eh?

    We had an LG installed not too long ago and has major dramas, mainly it switches on by itself randomly but keeps the flap closed so it ends up leaking water everywhere.

    Asked Air Con guy who just installed my Daikin and he says LG stands for “Lucky to be Going”. Nuf said.

  17. [“If money is tight โ€“ be sure to turn the air con off when not needed. it will cost you 30-35c/hr to run (about 100-120 ordinary light bulbs).”]

    120 x 100Watts = 12000 Watts

    Sounds like a made up “fact” to me.

    Air Cons are actually extremely efficient these days and it’s actually CHEAPER to run a reverse cycle air conditioner in heater mode to heat a room than it is with any other heater alternative.(that’s actually a real fact)

  18. CATmomma
    is it an inverter model. I beleive they use less electricity because the motor on the air con slows down or whatever they call it when less cold air is needed, not just slowing the fan down. I can chuck a bit of money in to help you if you need a bigger/more expensive one. Also mine is a Daiken Inverter with some sort of ion thingy that breaks up smells. this was crucial for me with a husband in a sick bed.

  19. TBA
    Not sure what sort of light bulbs you use but the standard pin type are usually between 12-20 watts, with LED(5-10) and standard fluoros 36-44 Watts. You cannot buy the old 100 Watt bulbs anymore, although some of the halogen hybids are higher.

    So at 1.2KW cooliong system is about 100 light bulbs (but maybe 60 bulbs if we are talking 20Watt bulbs.

    You are right that the heating cycle of reverse systems is pretty efficient, say compared with the old 2.2KW bar heaters and oil columns. Gas still comes our a bit ahead I think.

  20. And sometimes those who do the installing can supply at a good price. Try three quotes from different suppliers, check their history and then approach The Good Guys. I had a big aircon firm out, the guy looked at the room, the house, discussed the different models and left me with a quote. I wanted a 3kw, he rang the techs who said no, 2.5 coz in a smaller area the 3kw would spend a lot of time changing up and down. I appreciated the honest advice. That was the one i finally went with. He also worked out the best spot to put it, before we ordered.
    Sorry to chime in when you have made up your mind but I just want to tell you what worked for me.
    Yes good advice upthread, , don’t get talked into any extended warranty crap.

  21. Bemused

    I am cautious about assuming that sytems do not run at close to max most of the time, although my data is mostly Qld so they all work a bit harder. In offices where the windows never open, you can maybe get a bit of down time, but domestically it is less clear. Also over time they start to chew up more power.

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