Hughes covers two distinct areas of outer southern Sydney, separated by the Holsworthy army base: Sutherland, Menai and Engadine, located inland of Cronulla and south of the Georges River; and the Holsworthy and Moorebank area to the north-west. The recently published draft redistribution proposes substantial losses at the latter end in return for gains in the former. The newly acquired area extends from Oyster Bay on the river south to Engadine, adding around 30,000 voters from Cook, together with around 7000 voters at Heathcote immediately to the south from Cunningham. The losses account for 13,000 voters in Chipping Norton, Warwick Farm and the town centre of Liverpool, who are transferred to Fowler; 10,000 around Milperra, who go to Blaxland; and 15,000 around southern Panania, who go to Banks. The changes have boosted the Liberal margin from 10.7% to 11.8%.
2013 ELECTION RESULTS |
PAST RESULTS |
DEMOGRAPHICS |
Labor was dominant in Hughes for three decades after its creation in 1955, its only defeat in that time being with the rout of 1966. At that time the electorate extended south to the northern end of the Illawarra region, and it also included Cronulla until the electorate of Cook was created to accommodate its rapid post-war growth in 1969. Successive redistributions in 1984 and 1993 cleaved territory from the Illawarra end, and it was then gained for the Liberals in 1996 by Danna Vale at the expense of Robert Tickner, the Keating government’s embattled Aboriginal Affairs Minister. The 11.4% swing was seen to exemplify the realignment achieved by John Howard in electorates on the urban fringes, and it was followed by consecutive swings to Vale over the next three elections, which was particularly remarkable in the case of the great correction of 1998. Vale may have been assisted on that occasion by Labor’s endorsement of David Hill, the former ABC managing director who had been head of Sydney Water at the time of that year’s water contamination crisis.
Vale was brought back to earth by the redistribution that preceded the 2007 election, which cut the margin from 11.0% to 8.8% by adding the Liverpool town centre and its surrounds, and then by a 6.4% swing as Labor swept to power under Kevin Rudd. She retired at the 2010 election and was succeeded by Craig Kelly, founder of the Southern Sydney Retailers Association. Kelly supported Tony Abbott in the September 2015 leadership vote, and has since been identified as part of a core of conservatives who remain disaffected with Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership.
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