Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Huge gains in Victoria have provided the main impetus for the Coalition’s poll revival under Malcolm Turnbull, according to the latest Newspoll state breakdowns.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which combine results of polling conducted from October through December and breaks the results down by state, with gender and age cohort breakdowns presumably to follow shortly. The timing of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership coup in late September means comparison of the previous result with the current provides a neat measure of his impact, which appears to have been particularly big in Victoria and Western Australia. Both states record eight-point shifts on two-party preferred, giving the Coalition respective leads of 51-49 and 54-46. There have also been shifts of four points in New South Wales and five points in Queensland, respectively producing Coalition leads of 53-47 and 52-48. Only in South Australia is Labor still credited with the lead, which is down from 54-46 to 52-48. Two-party tables here, primary votes here and leaders ratings here (with thanks to Leroy Lynch).

UPDATE (29/12): And now the second tranche of the results, featuring breakdowns by gender and age cohort. The results suggest Malcolm Turnbull has had less effect on the gender gap than you might have figured, and that the change had less impact on younger respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,470 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

  1. [The problem isn’t with inviting a girl for a drink]

    It wasn’t about inviting anyone for a drink. He would have had a million opportunities to invite her for a drink if having her company for a drink was something that he was serious about. As other victims of Gayle have clearly identified it was deliberate humiliation and sexual harassment in the work place. It is against the law. Channel 10 would want to make very sure it didn’t happen again.

  2. [I suspect Turnbull doesn’t want an investigation because he was one of the recipients of said leaked photo.]

    Unwitting and unwilling recipient?

  3. Turnbull is stuck with Dutton. He has not got the numbers to mash him. He knows it.

    Just like Shorten could not sack Albo or Kim Carr. It is factions. Surely you understand that as ALP leaning people. I have no problems with Penny Wong going tut tut (It is good politics) but it is a bit of a yawn on PB.

  4. Turnbull either does not know who leaked or he does know and doesn’t want that revealed by an investigation.
    I think he could probably find out if he wanted to by asking the people involved.

  5. Chinda:

    Dutton as an Abbottobad is a protected species. Turnbull doesn’t have the authority in the partyroom to sack him unfortunately.

  6. Airlines

    Yes Dutton is a terrible minister but that still does not give Turnbull the power to sack him. he is the pin up for the Monkey Pods.

    However like other tubers, left in the light too long he will go green and toxic.

  7. Bemused, you indicated your unfamiliarity with John Harms, when BK mentioned him as a sportswriter worthy of attention. He is the son of a Lutheran Minister, born in Victoria but largely raised in Queensland (Darling Downs and then U/Queensland).
    He is a published author, with a biography of Steve Renouf and a trilogy of his sport watching experiences – cricket, horse racing and Australian football. He runs a lively sports website,, where the primary focus is football, but it ranges widely across sports and more general subjects.
    John was also resident fellow at Manning Clark House for a year (his Ph. D. is in history).
    You probably saw some of his articles when he had a regular weekly column in the Age sports section some ten years ago.

  8. Job not finished?

    [“…on hearing Dyson Heydon’s wonderful parataxis – ‘louts, thugs, bullies, thieves, perjurers, and standover men’ – I thought it was cabinet he meant, not the unions. Where do these guys get off?”]

    [“Just because they’re not stuffed yet doesn’t mean they’re not turkeys. And just because they’re not out in the back lane yet doesn’t mean they’re not trash.”]

    Read more:
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  9. Zoidlord,
    I suggest you get in touch with the Welfare Rights office in you state. They may be able to help you with information, advice and advocacy if needed.

    I suggest if you make an appointment with them, try to have everything you need, such as letters from Centrelink etc with you to make effective use of time.

    The first thing you should do, I suspect, is ask for a Review of the Decision. A higher up public servant will check the file to see if the decision maker followed the correct procedure, applied the legislation correctly and made a correct decision. You have a limited timeframe to ask for this, so attending to it as a priority is probably a good thing. The letter will have your Appeal rights documented. i think you can present new information if you have it.

    Chucking the letter in the fire and saying ‘f&*$# you’ is Centrelink’s preferred response as that means no more work for them.

    Hope this helps.

    good luck.

  10. [ However like other tubers, left in the light too long he will go green and toxic. ]

    To be welcomed by Nicolas with open arms!!! 🙂

  11. @Puff/5464

    Of course I didn’t mean that literally you know, will let everyone know if I don’t here from them very soon.

    Action is already taken, but If I don’t get a response will refer to ” Review of the Decision” and Welfare Rights group (already have their contact details ready).

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Barnaby Joyce reckons he’s ready to be Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister but we certainly don’t!
    It looks like Chris “Swinging Dick” Gayle might have played his last BBL game.
    Elizabeth Farrelly says Turnbull taking out of the trash is a job only half done.
    “Dear Uncle Malcolm. If you really respect women sack Dutton now!” John Passant doesn’t pull any punches here.,8549
    The “born to rule mentality still shines brightly.
    The current el Nino is doing a hell of a job on our weather!
    I think Leyonhjelm may have been looking in the mirror when he composed this tweet.
    “Who will benefit most from the demise of Dick Smith?” asks Catie Low.
    Albo is putting the pressure on the Coalition’s infrastructure spending by calling for an independent investigation in the wake of a scathing ANAO report.
    Will Bill Cosby get away with it?

  13. Section 2 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Here’s a great case for removing the anachronistic taxation benefits given to organised religion.
    How can you identify sexual harassment?
    The double standards of the Turnbull government have been exposed by recent events.–dont-blush-baby,8550
    IS has become dangerously innovative as this video shows.
    And how will Potato Head handle this one in the long run?
    Our aged care sector is not running well. For the residents that is.
    Ouch! David Pope looks a t gun control at the high end of the market.×628.1t3j0.png/1452060123132.jpg
    Roy in the Herald Sun joins in on US gun control.
    David Rowe with North Korea thumbing its nose at the UN.×414.png/1452072278922.jpg

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