Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Huge gains in Victoria have provided the main impetus for the Coalition’s poll revival under Malcolm Turnbull, according to the latest Newspoll state breakdowns.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which combine results of polling conducted from October through December and breaks the results down by state, with gender and age cohort breakdowns presumably to follow shortly. The timing of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership coup in late September means comparison of the previous result with the current provides a neat measure of his impact, which appears to have been particularly big in Victoria and Western Australia. Both states record eight-point shifts on two-party preferred, giving the Coalition respective leads of 51-49 and 54-46. There have also been shifts of four points in New South Wales and five points in Queensland, respectively producing Coalition leads of 53-47 and 52-48. Only in South Australia is Labor still credited with the lead, which is down from 54-46 to 52-48. Two-party tables here, primary votes here and leaders ratings here (with thanks to Leroy Lynch).

UPDATE (29/12): And now the second tranche of the results, featuring breakdowns by gender and age cohort. The results suggest Malcolm Turnbull has had less effect on the gender gap than you might have figured, and that the change had less impact on younger respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,470 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. CATmomma
    is it an inverter model. I believe they use less electricity because the motor on the air con slows down or whatever they call it when less cold air is needed, not just slowing the fan down. I can chuck a bit of money in to help you if you need a bigger/more expensive one. Also mine is a Daiken Inverter with some sort of ion thingy that breaks up smells. this was crucial for me with a husband in a sick bed.

    I had excellent results from mine, not that i claim more techy knowledge than BB!

    And sometimes those who do the installing can supply at a good price. Try three quotes from different suppliers, check their history and then approach The Good Guys. I had a big aircon firm out, the guy looked at the room, the house, discussed the different models and left me with a quote. I wanted a 3kw, he rang the techs who said no, 2.5 coz in a smaller area the 3kw would spend a lot of time changing up and down. I appreciated the honest advice. That was the one i finally went with. He also worked out the best spot to put it, before we ordered.

    Sorry to chime in when you have made up your mind but I just want to tell you what worked for me.

    Yes good advice upthread, , don’t get talked into any extended warranty crap.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    George Williams describes the growing assault on our domestic rights.
    Canada is showing us how to overcome our shame with respect to the treatment of refugees.
    A brilliant article from Ross Gittins on the relationship between incentives and suboptimal behaviour.
    The revelation of how little taxation big companies are paying will haunt the government. The public anger will not go away of its own accord.
    For the global economy 2016 will be the year of living dangerously says Larry Elliott of The Guardian.
    Here’s a very good examination of productivity and the commission’s report.,8526
    Serious questions remain over the government’s approach to penalty rates.
    2015’s weirdest moments in politics.
    Anyone want to go on a cruise?

  3. To everybody else, thank you for your responses. I will take it all on board and contact professionals as well for a quote before I make my final decision. 🙂

  4. Thank you, victoria. 🙂 Although I’m not at all used to this kind of thing. Mostly I purchase something from the local paper which is second hand!

  5. The morning radio is making a big deal about the Quarterly Newspoll breakdown for Victoria as if it’s some kind of personal sleight against Bill Shorten. I think that the Victorians were just massively relieved to be shot of Tony Abbott and for him to have been replaced with a Silver Fox Hipster. 😉

  6. c@tmomma

    I have not listened to any media this morning, but you are quite right about Victorians being mightly relieved to be rid of Abbott. This state was going to be a wipe out for Abbott should he have led the coalition at next election.
    Hopefully, my Fellow Victorians will wake up to the fraud that is Turnbull

  7. C@tmomma @ 11 and Victoria @ 12

    Yes there is no doubt the relief to be rid of Abbott is a factor.

    But you have to look deeper. An eight point turnaround is massive.

    And more than three months since the deeply satisfying ouster of Abbott, you have to be prepared to acknowledge that this is now much more about Turnbull v. Shorten than Turnbull v. Abbott.

    And that is where it is indeed profoundly worrying for Shorten. I have not heard the morning radio but I assume they’re making play of the fact this is Shorten’s home state, his natural territory.
    And keep this in mind: Victorians, as a general rule, would be tend to be suspicious of a smooth-talking Sydney-sider who got rich fairly quick between some self-promoting lawyerly work and Internet start-ups.

    But no, Victorians – so far at least – are giving a huge tick to Turnbull and a most emphatic “please give us a more credible alternative as Labor leader” to Shorten.

    Sorry, but any other reading of these numbers is head in the sand territory.

  8. Perhaps the Productivity Commission and the Liberals should take more notice of Henry Ford. Reminds me of the old proverb (1659) “All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy”.

    [Researchers studied the accuracy of keystrokes among workers at a New York insurance company.

    A little pop-up was created to appear on computer screens reminding the workers to take a break from time to time. Researchers found those receiving the reminders were 13 per cent more accurate on average in their work than those who received no reminders.

    This equated to a 1 per cent improvement in productivity, which meant faster returns for the company and a healthier workforce: win-win!

    But in reality, the insights here go right back to Henry Ford and the five-day, 40-hour work week.

    In 1926, Ford realised two things:

    if he shortened the work week from six days to five he could get more out of his employees in the time they were at work, and;
    if he gave his workers time away from work, they would have enough space in their lives to go out and buy things.]

  9. Victoria – Of course replacing Shorten with whomever is judged best able to leader Labor would not result in Turnbull’s popularity plummeting.

    Indeed I suspect that short-term, a change for Labor would probably mean Turnbull’s popularity would be solidified, even enhanced.

    But as we’ve all observed, politics moves fast in Australia now. What Labor needs is the right leader to capitalise if and when Turnbull begins to stumble. Australians have passed judgment on Shorten. It’s not that he’s a nobody, or little known, but rather that he’s too well-known for qualities Australians have decided count against him. I don’t have to recite them again unless you’d like me to. They’re well known.

    Shorten has been defined; to a large extent he’s defined himself. He’s the wrong guy to expect Australians to turn to if the lustre comes off Turnbull’s glitter.

  10. I would also factor in the (unwarranted) perception that Turnbull is actually slightly to the left of Shorten (Vic being a very left leaning state).

    It’s not a coincidence that the Greens won and kept the seat of Melbourne and have not come close yet to doing the same in any other capital.

    Victorians want action on climate change, a softening of the stance on asylum seekers (really very big here), a bigger commitment to renewables, a real NBN etc.

    At the moment, the perception is that Turnbull wants these things too.

    I’d also throw into the ring the fact that the paper most Victorians trust (versus the one most actually read!) has gone a bit troppo when it comes to the Labor party.

  11. 17

    Labor generally and Shorten in particular should be given a lot of credit for felling Abbott. He was a shockingly bad PM who tainted everything he touched. Shorten comprehensively outplayed Abbott and should be praised for it. If anyone other than Abbott himself made Turnbull’s ascension possible, it was Shorten.

  12. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 22m22 minutes ago
    Why Lynton and not Tony?]

    😀 Esp after all Tones has done for British conservatives and their institutions!

  13. 24

    This only serves to remind us that knighthoods are archaic. We should remove the last vestiges of monarchic privilege and symbolism from our system and become a republic.

  14. Briefly

    I respectfully disagree. Abbott, ably abetted by a cast of accomplices – most notably Joe Hockey, Peta Credlin, Bronwyn Bishop – are the ones who undid Abbott.

    Shorten basked, post Budget 2014, in the growing realisation among Australians that Abbott was the knuckleheaded ideologue they had always believed he was – but had no choice but to vote in back in 2013 given Rudd-Gillard-Rudd made it impossible to elect Labor.

    Yes Shorten did nothing wrong as he basked. He just basked. He just imagined how easy it was going to be to romp into the Lodge in 2016.

    Then came Turnbull.

  15. [He just imagined how easy it was going to be to romp into the Lodge in 2016.]

    OK, this just shows you know nothing about Shorten. He’s not a basker. Even when given a portfolio where he was expected to bask, he got busy and made sure he made a lasting contribution. That’s his nature.

  16. [26

    Yes Shorten did nothing wrong as he basked. He just basked. He just imagined how easy it was going to be to romp into the Lodge in 2016.]

    This is just not accurate. Labor very adroitly managed their opposition. They fought him. You can’t tell me, for example, that while we were door-knocking every house and phoning every voter in Canning that we were “basking”. Abbott was stopped and Labor did it.

  17. …I would also add (as another example) that he has one of the safest seats in Victoria, but from the very first he has worked it as if it was one of the most marginal (the joke in Vic Labor is that he won’t be satisfied until his margin is in the 90s).

    He couldn’t bask if he wanted to.

  18. briefly:

    Indeed. As I said the other day when news of Crosby’s knighthood first broke, such a cynical move in bestowing such a recognition on someone whose sole contribution to ‘public life’ has been as a political strategist for one side of politics!

    If Lynton Crosby is the best the Brits can find to award a knighthood to, the institution has become totally irrelevant to contemporary life.

  19. [He just imagined how easy it was going to be to romp into the Lodge in 2016.]

    After Rudd and his henchmen wrecked a Labor govt and the recriminations that inevitably followed, Shorten did a fantastic job in uniting the caucus after such a destructive period. I wouldn’t call this basking.

  20. 30

    These gongs have always been handed out to those favourites who flatter and enable privilege. They are relics and should have no place in an egalitarian society.

  21. alias,
    Might I respectfully say that you are talking out of your behind. I take as a more valid perspective than yours the information put here the other day which went to the fact that most people, unless they are obsessively-focussed on politics, such as we are here, and as you are on Bill Shorten, don’t know and don’t care who the Opposition Leader is.

    I think you are making the mistake of comparing Bill Shorten to Tony Abbott, the most in-your-face, obnoxious Opposition Leader for decades. And we all saw how that ended up. He became Prime Minister, sure, but not for very long. He fizzled out quicker than an out-of-control firecracker.

    Actually, if you want to know my thoughts about the Turnbull V Shorten contest, I reckon Bill has already got Turnbull snookered. Turnbull will have to be very ‘courageous’ to take a 15% GST to an election and forget about touching Sunday Penalty Rates, that’s off the agenda for good and all. And you say Bill Shorten is ineffective as an Opposition Leader?

    Malcolm Turnbull has the ‘Rock Star’ quality about him, but those people are usually a mile wide and an inch deep. Bill Shorten may not be possessed of that in the same way Bob Hawke was but then neither was John Howard and he survived more on political wit and wisdom than charisma. The electorate didn’t seem to mind.

    Malcolm Turnbull has already got the wobbles. Let’s just wait and see then how both men cope in the crucible of an election campaign? Malcolm just can’t ride on Public Transport to victory, taking selfies, in a national campaign.

  22. The Telegraph ran three memes yesterday:

    1. Small business wants to get rid of Sunday Penalty rates.
    2. Liberal Government is considering introducing anti-Union legislation.
    3. No tax cuts without the inctrease in GST.

    Sort of tells you what the Liberal election strategy is going to be.

  23. c@tmomma

    Therein lies the rub. Turnbull’s backers want a GST increase and IR changes including watering down penalty rates and other entitlements. If he doesnt go to an election supporting these changes, he will be of no use

  24. GG

    The strategy is to use the TURC report to press ahead with the ABCC legislation. If it doesnt pass the senate a third term, Truffles can call a DD on same

  25. Don’t forget that Lynton Crosby was behind Stephen harper’s campaign in the Canadian election recently. And look how that turned out! We have reached Peak Lynton and it’s all downhill from here for him. As zoomster said, people now want the sorts of things that Justin Trudeau embodies. They also believe Malcolm Turnbull embodies those same things. Maybe they’ll give him another chance after an election to be ‘The Real Malcolm’. Boy will they get a nasty surprise as the IPA keeps manouvering more of it’s apparatchiks into the Coalition and the Conservatives mount their rear-guard action to shore up their numbers.

  26. Hey momma,

    Good to see you progressing towards the Air con installation.

    My advice is the same as day 1.

    1. Make sure it is up to the job required. Split air con/ heater and has the grunt to cover the designated area adequately.
    2. Make sure you get a qualified installer who knows what they are doing.
    3. Warranty needs to be enforceable.
    4. Value for money both for the unit and the on-going operation.
    5. Have a look at Good Guys who discount for cash.

    Great to see your family involved in the decision making process. The family that stays cool together stays together.

  27. [And that is where it is indeed profoundly worrying for Shorten. I have not heard the morning radio but I assume they’re making play of the fact this is Shorten’s home state, his natural territory.]

    Christ, Alias, you’re up early!

    Since when has what “the morning radio” says ever been an indication of anything much at all except the usual play-by-play bullshit that we always get from the media?

  28. Grensborough Growler @ 33,

    ‘ 1. Small business wants to get rid of Sunday Penalty rates.’

    And those ‘Small Businesses’ are increasingly being exposed as multi-headed hydra franchises who seem to be small but are in fact very big.

    Anyway, if ‘Small Business’ are allowed to get rid of Penalty Rates, how long before Big Business wants it’s share of the pie? How long before Macdonalds, KFC, Hungry Jacks, etc start screaming about how each of their franchisees is just a ‘Local Small Business’?

    ‘ 2. Liberal Government is considering introducing anti-Union legislation.’

    Because businesses are corruption-free? Or don’t employ standover men to extract payment for debts owed? The Unions do what they do because they have to stand up to some very brutish business owners. Why they do it is for their members, for safe workplaces and for a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s toil.

    ‘3. No tax cuts without the inctrease in GST.’

    Why doesn’t the government just go after the multinationals not paying their fair share of tax now? Then, after they have begun paying up, only then should a tax cut for them be considered. The GST revenue certainly shouldn’t be traded away to line their pockets with fur!

  29. OK, I’ll need to combine responses to all the above in one post, as I need to be stepping out into the tropical pre-dawn in a few minutes. The Muezzin has made his first call, and the second one is not too far away. It’s always nice to be strolling in the first dawn light as that spell-binding call issues forth.

    I think several misunderstood my use of “basking”. I have long praised Shorten’s achievement on NDIS (though I think in one sense it was his vehicle to leadership pre-positioning) and I do not doubt that Labor more generally, in Canning for example, worked damned hard to drive home the advantage that Abbott presented them with, especially with the 2014 Budget.

    What I mean by “basking” is that Abbott’s awfulness made it possible for Bill Shorten to have a relationship with the voting public that amounted to no more than “I’m not Tony Abbott”. On reflection, “basking” might not been the very best choice of word.

    I have to take issue with one notion: the idea that non-obsessives don’t know or care who the Opposition leader is.

    Flat out wrong. One of the highest rating programmes of 2015 was the Killing Season, which reinforced the perception that Shorten was a key player in toppling two prime ministers. Add to that some of what we might call the “popular culture” image-making – Shorten crashed his car into several parked vehicles in Carlton North while apparently juggling a coffee; he was filmed in the same neighbourhood text messaging while driving.

    I won’t go repeating much of what I’ve written before about his presentational challenges except to say that time has not been kind to Bill Shorten in the telegenic stakes. His receding hairline, his bulging eyes, his weird physical and verbal tics – yes they’re very superficial and should not, in a perfect world, count for a jot.

    But in TV-land, and public image-making land, they do count for a lot. Many voters will over-ride their worries over issues and policies and vote for the person they like the look of – the person who makes them feel good. Sad, depressing, but true.

  30. I suggest people actually carefully analyse the figures.

    In NSW under Abbott there was a strong (but not overwhelming) shift from the Libs, but almost none of this went to Labor, almost all went to the Greens. As might be expected under Turnbull, these presumably moderate liberal voters have returned to the liberals.

    In Victoria, under Abbott there was a large (6%) swing from the Libs to the ALP, with the Greens picking up 4% the others. Under Turnbull, once again the moderate Liberals have returned to the fold. Possibly significant is that Labor has LOST an additional 2%, mostly going to Turnbull. The green vote seems to be holding up.

    In Qld under Abbott there had been a huge swing to Labor and a small swing to the Greens. This was drawn from both the libs and the others (Palmer). It would seem as if while the traditional Liberals have swung back to Turnbull, the Others have not, switching to both Labor and the Greens.

    In WA a massive swing against Abbott has been reduced to a mild swing against Turnbull, with those Liberals who had thought of voting green returning to Turnbull.

  31. victoria @ 35,

    ‘ If he (Turnbull) doesnt go to an election supporting these changes, he will be of no use.’

    Like I said before, Malcolm is already on shaky ground and needs to mount a rear-guard action to fend off the Conservatives, as well as to appeal to the moderate middle-ground with policies they want. He’ll need to be good to pull off that Quinella successfully.

  32. [Why doesn’t the government just go after the multinationals not paying their fair share of tax now? ]

    Because these would be the Liberal party’s biggest donors?

  33. Any comment on the submarines being miraculously $5B cheaper?

    Were they overpriced for an Abbott government?

    Do they now have enough range to get from their maintenance base in Adelaide past the Torres Strait and remain on patrol for more than a couple of weeks?

  34. alias @ 43,

    Malcolm Turnbull just toppled a First Term Prime Minister. And your point is?

    You just don’t like Bill Shorten and are grasping at straws.

  35. alias @ 43,

    ‘ I won’t go repeating much of what I’ve written before about his presentational challenges except to say that time has not been kind to Bill Shorten in the telegenic stakes. His receding hairline, his bulging eyes, his weird physical and verbal tics – yes they’re very superficial and should not, in a perfect world, count for a jot. ‘

    A speech impediment and physical tics didn’t seem to bother the electorate when they voted for John Howard to win 4 elections.

    Maybe it’s just you who are judging an alternative prime minister superficially.

  36. momma,

    Apparently, alias wants “Warnie” for PM.

    Nothing about the policy, it’s all about the superficials for him.

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