Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Huge gains in Victoria have provided the main impetus for the Coalition’s poll revival under Malcolm Turnbull, according to the latest Newspoll state breakdowns.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which combine results of polling conducted from October through December and breaks the results down by state, with gender and age cohort breakdowns presumably to follow shortly. The timing of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership coup in late September means comparison of the previous result with the current provides a neat measure of his impact, which appears to have been particularly big in Victoria and Western Australia. Both states record eight-point shifts on two-party preferred, giving the Coalition respective leads of 51-49 and 54-46. There have also been shifts of four points in New South Wales and five points in Queensland, respectively producing Coalition leads of 53-47 and 52-48. Only in South Australia is Labor still credited with the lead, which is down from 54-46 to 52-48. Two-party tables here, primary votes here and leaders ratings here (with thanks to Leroy Lynch).

UPDATE (29/12): And now the second tranche of the results, featuring breakdowns by gender and age cohort. The results suggest Malcolm Turnbull has had less effect on the gender gap than you might have figured, and that the change had less impact on younger respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,470 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. Hilarious , in a sad way. Ley moaning ( re pap tests) that companies are “more concerned about their shareholders” than their patients. Hmmm where to begin on that one.

  2. Oh no!

    [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits
    In breaking news, am being swept away by new broom at the Oz. In couple of weeks. Therefore my multi-skilled shingle is out. So. ]

  4. As another Bludger said here the other day, it’s not worth it. The perpetrator is unlikely to be either a trade unionist or anyone having a connection to Bill Shorten or the Labor Party.

  7. [The perpetrator is unlikely to be either a trade unionist or anyone having a connection to Bill Shorten or the Labor Party.]

    Having that connection seems to be the sine qua non for any inquiry that this government considers holding.

  10. [
    airline training captain has also questioned why items such as pocket knives and screwdrivers are barred from flights when everyday objects
    ]
    The number of dam camera adjusting screwdrivers I have lost over the years; little things they were. It was the set of alan keys that I lost that really had me perplexed; once again small sizes; little ones to adjust lenses. What did they think I was going to do, pull the plane apart in flight.

  12. victoria:

    Apropos of your comments this morning you may be interested to hear that the ‘water cooler discussion’ at work today was the Medicare changes. Some very annoyed people. I wonder if that’s the kind of sleeper issue that will cause the Turnbull glow to fade.

  14. Mumble probably got the flick because he used those pesky fact things in his articles. Too much for the News readers.

    Indeed, but the ‘new broom’ is Paul Whittaker ex of the Daily Telegraph.

    I imagine Mumble hadn’t done enough pieces on how useless and vile Clover Moore is and how we should declare war on bicyclists.

  15. fess

    i am glad to hear that people are noticing what this govt is doing. Hopefully people will wake up tp the fraud that is Turnbull. The govt agenda did not change when Abbott was dumped

  18. Re Ruawake @5409: Mumble probably got the flick because he used those pesky fact things in his articles.

    He should have selected his ‘facts’ from the Newscrap-approved list.

  21. confessions @ 5413: It will be interesting to see if any other blogs on The Australian are dispensed with. I would have thought “Jack the Insider” was probably a touch to the left of Dr Brent. The only real value of the paper these days – apart from the fact that broadsheets are good for wrapping up the garbage – is that you can find out what the far right is thinking without having to learn German.

  23. Uber Lib shill Paul Murray really went to town on the government’s $28 million for the advertising “innovation ” policy. It was as if Labor were still in power !!!! He must be a “Monkey Pod” or Scrott fanboi.

  24. Bk, (and anyone else that is interested) apparently modems are getting better all the time. I visited Telstra and they gave me a new one when I upgraded my plan. I now get a blistering download speeds of 110-130 Mps. Up load is still crippling slow at 2-4mps.

    The Telstra dude said you should update your modem every few years to get advantage of the new technology.

    I should say I am on the old cable and I doubt you would get that speed on ADSL as you are still using copper (which we know is the advanced technology preferred by LNP).

  25. My comment on Twitter in response to Dr Brent’s news of his departure from The Australian was that he is a ship leaving a sinking rat.

  26. The Australian these days tells us what the business far right is thinking.mit’s basically Rupert and the IPA briefing their acolytes. On the other hand, the Telecrap and its tabloid counterparts in other states is preaching/dogwhistling to the punters that the plutocracy needs to get the numbers to vote their party into office.

  27. PeeBee
    I am on copper and about 900 m from the exchange. The line speed is 21Mbps. The 15 -16 Mbps download speed I am getting now is amazing!

  31. [PeeBee
    My upload speed is only 0.8 Mbps.]

    Uploading your daily 1 hour high def news vblog isn’t going to a quick part of your day!

  33. BK, when I used to work of a living, I used to do stuff that created a lot of data. I found I couldn’t upload it via the Internet as it took ages. I used to load it onto a USB stick and jump in my car and hand deliver it. Very inefficient.

    Apparently, the fraudband suffers from slow upload speeds as well. So calls by our current PM to be agile and innovative rings hollow when he was responsible for creating slow infrastructure. Despite the fact that he invented the Internet in Australia, he had no idea that fast upload speeds were essential for people to be agile and innovative.

  34. [WWP
    The upload of the Dawn Patrol is very quick. They are very small files.]

    Sorry I was a bit obscure, I was suggesting when you move to your new high def video version of the Dawn Patrol where you take us through each of the articles and do some editorial, it is going to take you quite a while to upload it.

  37. PeeBee

    [Apparently, the fraudband suffers from slow upload speeds as well.]
    That was the big ace for FTTP , huge upload speeds for business and people like you. But then along came Truffles Lottaloot.

  39. Reading some past comments on here about the Chris Gayle incident…

    …would we be just as offended if a cheeky Hugh Jackman joking asked an attractive female interviewer out for drinks?

    I dare say that in the West Indies (or most of the world) Gayles behaviour would not have even raised an eyebrow.

    The harassment of him subsequently, the way his name is dragged through the mud and the fine all amount to some degree of cultural bullying – of holding a guest to the nation up against social norms that aren’t norms at all in terms of global behaviour – in looks a bit like cultural bullying from where I sit. If he had broken a law he deserves opprobrium but I do not believe anyone is suggesting that he did.

    And if actions such as his are not deemed bad enough to warrant a law against them they can’t really be that bad right? Or do people want to see inviting a girl for a drink made an illegal activity?

    It is inappropriate to ask a female reporter for drinks, it is inappropriate to fart at the dinner table, it is illegal to sexually harass a woman. That is how it should be.

  40. It reminds me of Harry Connick Junior getting his nose right out of joint at some performers on Red Faces doing a blackface skit… what was a terrible racist act in the eyes of Harry Connick was innocent playful fun to the actors, Darryl Summers and the Australian audience.

  43. L G H

    And if actions such as his are not deemed bad enough to warrant a law against them they can’t really be that bad right?

    The law is a crude, blunt instrument. It describes the absolute lowest level of minimum standard.

    There is a looooong way between what is illegal and what is considered acceptable.

    There are many non-illegal things that most of us think are not and should not be acceptable.

    So let’s not use that yardstick.

    As to your other assertion that we’re being unfair to Gayle because of cultural differences, well sorry but that’s a load of bunk.

    Perhaps if Gayle wanted to live a life purely in the West Indies that might be ok, but if he wants to lead a jetsetting lifestyle and play in Australia then he is fair game for our cultural judgment as to what is acceptable and what is not.

    Or do people want to see inviting a girl for a drink made an illegal activity?

    The problem isn’t with inviting a girl for a drink, the problem is that it was in a setting where she was trying to do her job. If they had both been attending a party in a private capacity no one would have blinked an eyelid, but then in that setting she could have slapped him down (or accepted his offer) or just walked away – she didn’t have any of those options while she was doing her professional job.

  44. I’ve been reading everyone’s comments regarding the Chris & Meg saga with great interest for the most part. L. G. H. you’re a little boring but no harm done, you probably hear it a lot anyway.

    The solution to all this is – guys need to just “zip it”. Every man I’ve ever dated, married, been engaged to e.t.c – I’ve initiated the relationship, I asked them out first. Guys need to sit back, play it quiet and let the women do the work, we’re smarter. Eventually a woman will chose you, unless you’re a turd like TBA.

    It’s that simple!

  45. imacca

    [He says official figures show public infrastructure investment fell 20 per cent since the Coalition was elected.]
    So those Coalition minters that repeatedly told us in QT they had the most humungous infrastructure program EVA were bullshitting. What a surprise.

  46. [Or do people want to see inviting a girl for a drink made an illegal activity?]

    You’re missing the point. In asking her out on live TV (ie public) while she was doing her job, he swung her ass out there in a way she had no option to respond in kind, ie to either flirt back with him or smack him down for being a dick.

    As a woman I’ll say this. You work with me and want to ask me out for a drink or whatever, don’t do it in front of colleagues across the boardroom table after I’ve delivered a presentation to my organisation’s executive team.

  48. Every man I’ve ever dated, married, been engaged to e.t.c – I’ve initiated the relationship, I asked them out first. Guys need to sit back, play it quiet and let the women do the work, we’re smarter.

    That’s great for you and the men you dated but you are probably in a small minority among women.

  49. Nicholas pish posh, there’s someone for everyone, except TBA, just wait for the women to make the first move, it’s like rocket science simple…

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