Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Huge gains in Victoria have provided the main impetus for the Coalition’s poll revival under Malcolm Turnbull, according to the latest Newspoll state breakdowns.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which combine results of polling conducted from October through December and breaks the results down by state, with gender and age cohort breakdowns presumably to follow shortly. The timing of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership coup in late September means comparison of the previous result with the current provides a neat measure of his impact, which appears to have been particularly big in Victoria and Western Australia. Both states record eight-point shifts on two-party preferred, giving the Coalition respective leads of 51-49 and 54-46. There have also been shifts of four points in New South Wales and five points in Queensland, respectively producing Coalition leads of 53-47 and 52-48. Only in South Australia is Labor still credited with the lead, which is down from 54-46 to 52-48. Two-party tables here, primary votes here and leaders ratings here (with thanks to Leroy Lynch).

UPDATE (29/12): And now the second tranche of the results, featuring breakdowns by gender and age cohort. The results suggest Malcolm Turnbull has had less effect on the gender gap than you might have figured, and that the change had less impact on younger respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,470 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  2. I have watched Gerard Whately develop over the years into an excellent all round sports journalist and presenter.
    On top of his success he is not at all full of himself, a characteristic sadly lacking in many of his profession.

  5. TPOF@5346

    MB @ 5321

    And, while this is a bi-partisan issue, I’m not sure that every single funeral of a deployed member of the military requires the presence of the PM (not to mention the LOTO).


    If it makes the grieving families feel better then it’s good in my view. I know it’s political for both to attend – but their presence is saying to the families that the death of the soldier mattered to the country.

    It is just OTT.
    Perhaps the local member could attend.

    My father was in WWII and many of his comrades lie in Commonwealth War Graves overseas. Their relatives got a telegram. He was not very impressed by the politicisation of funerals of fallen soldiers.

  6. BK@5352

    I have watched Gerard Whately develop over the years into an excellent all round sports journalist and presenter.
    On top of his success he is not at all full of himself, a characteristic sadly lacking in many of his profession.

    Unlike a lot of sports journalists he actually has a brain and can comment sensibly on other matters.

  7. bemused

    The use of the military for flag waving political ends is the main reason I reckon they should stay away. Unless they actually had some connection with the person of course.

  8. lizzie@5354

    A rise in female leadership and the diversity of social backgrounds from which they come has delivered to the union movement a face that looks far more like Australia’s than the Coalition’s own cabinet.


    Includes details of 13 current female union “bosses”.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/06/the-female-bosses-destroying-the-image-of-union-thugs-forever?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Good one lizzie!

    I had been noticing the rise of the female Union Leader too but had not realised there were quite so many.

    Much harder to portray those ladies as threatening. 😀

  9. poroti@5357

    bemused

    The use of the military for flag waving political ends is the main reason I reckon they should stay away. Unless they actually had some connection with the person of course.

    Which is why if there is any representation it should be the local member.

    My father’s funeral was attended by the local member. But they did know each other.

  10. BK@5352

    I have watched Gerard Whately develop over the years into an excellent all round sports journalist and presenter.
    On top of his success he is not at all full of himself, a characteristic sadly lacking in many of his profession.

    Actually, Martin Flanagan is another sports journalist who is always worth reading and actually has a brain.

    The only journalist I know who can get me even slightly interested in AFL.

  13. zoidlord,
    I noticed your horrible news and would suggest you and your partner get an appointment ASAP with a social worker in Centrelink. I’m assuming you know about appeal process?

  14. [A transgender airline passenger was forced to remove a genital prosthetic and present it for inspection in a “demeaning” encounter that adds to calls for an overhaul of unnecessary security at Australian airports.

    An airline training captain has also questioned why items such as pocket knives and screwdrivers are barred from flights when everyday objects allowed on planes could easily be turned into weapons. He also called for mid-flight passenger visits to the cockpit to be reinstated.

    I suggest you look into sensitivity training and put some guidelines in place for your employees

    A Senate inquiry into airport and aviation security is examining reports of apparent breaches and considering if new measures are needed to enhance public safety.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/you-want-me-to-touch-that-thing-with-my-bare-hands-calls-for-airport-security-overhaul-20160105-glziv1.html

  17. sortius ‏@sortius 10h10 hours ago

    Look, if @TurnbullMalcolm sacked every misogynist in cabinet there’d be no one left, including himself #auspol

  22. [“A transgender airline passenger was forced to remove a genital prosthetic and present it for inspection in a “demeaning” encounter that adds to calls for an overhaul of unnecessary security at Australian airports.”]

    Why would someone wear a genital prosthetic in the first place? And to the Airport?

    Secondly, why don’t you think Australian laws and security apply to gay people?

  23. Sheesh. Being slack, I just brought the bins back in. As usual the garbos left the tops open. This was on Monday morning.

    There were 280 millimetres of rain in each. That’s a lot of rain for here over 2 days and 10 hours: 50mm per hour, steady, on average.

  28. Poor Ms Ley can’t take a trick.

    [7 News Queensland ‏@7NewsQueensland 31m31 minutes ago
    Thousands of women have signed a petition against plans to charge $30 dollars for life-saving pap smears #7News ]

    I wonder if she regrets prior L-NP misinformation campaigns?

  32. TBA, 5372

    [Why would someone wear a genital prosthetic in the first place? And to the Airport?]

    Same reason why people wear prosthetic legs, or arms etc.

    [Secondly, why don’t you think Australian laws and security apply to gay people?]

    I’m presuming you mean trans people and not gay people?

    As far as I know you’re supposed to inform the security of your prosthesis and it will be dealt with accordingly. This is what this person did – it wasn’t dealt with accordingly.

  34. [Flooding UK, Australia, USA……]

    2GB was chuckling about it last night. “All this rain and Tim Flannery said it’d never rain again” etc.

    I took the near-17 year-old grandson out for an L-plate drive to Kurnell today. Kurnell was the place that had the tornado pass through it.

    You have to pass by the Sydney desalination plant to get there. I could not but smile inwardly to myself that almost as soon as it was completed the last el Nino drought broke. It’s been bucketing down (relatively) since, enough to keep the plant in “care and maintenance” mode anyway. Dam levels have to get below 70% for it to kick in.

    Kurnell wasn’t as bad as some of the American towns you see. There wasn’t a swathe of utter destruction. It’s easy to say when all we had was a leak in the roof. A couple of buskets fixed that. Buckets would have fixed Kurnells problems, though.

    The main thing we saw was damaged roofs, with weighted-down tarps on top. We only saw one wall that had come down, and that was a small one.

    Nevertheless, the houses were uninhabitable from a practical point of view.

    The tornado seems to have cut a narrow channel, about 100 metres wide, coming from the south, going through the back streets, over the beachfront and out into Botany Bay. The fact that it was still pouring today would have made the locals pretty miserable. There was hardly a tradie to be seen. Apparently they can’t get anyone to attend to the insurance work over Christmas.

  36. lizzie @ 5364: I was flying to Tasmania for a fishing holiday a few years ago and was stopped by airport security because I had a fishing reel with line on it in in my carry on bag. They said it was a piece of “sporting equipment”. I later checked the regulations, and in my view they’d been misapplied; but what can you do?

    It did show how silly systems can become in practice. I suppose you could garotte a flight attendant with a piece of fishing line, but a boot lace, not banned, would be just as effective, if not more so.

  37. I can’t BELIEVE it! Since Telstra tuned up my ADSL line and supplied me with a gratis new model my download speed has gone from about 1.5 Mbps to 14 to 16 Mbps. I’m stoked!

  39. victoria @ 5380: If Mr Briggs’s political career had even the slightest bit of life left after his resignation, it would have been snuffed out by his idiocy in distributing the photos. Mr Turnbull, making the best of a bad lot, is probably more than happy to see him embalmed, cremated and buried. He can afford to wait for another day to sort out Mr Dutton. And as for the person who passed on the photos to the press, well, unless it was a Minister, there’d be little Mr Turnbull could do. Best not to buy into a fight you might not be able to win.

  44. pedant
    The techo spent a lot of time talking to me as he was changing a lot of parameters that were sensitive to a constant communication with my modem and causing it to set speeds to a low level in order to maintain continuity. This helped with the line speed but did not greatly assist actual download speeds.
    Yesterday I installed the new Telstra Gateway Max modem Model TG799vac.

  47. Results from speedtest.net

    Ping 8ms, Download 111.93, Upload 2.41.

    I’m 300m from the Telstra exchange and have Malcayman’s Fraudband.

    Download is fine but upload is the issue when HI is uploading a big website. We bought a shithole house (and did a huge amount of work on it) just to be where we could get Fraudband for our business.

    FTTH would destroy it but it suits what we do at the moment.

    Despite this we lose everything regularly because Telstra’s DNS servers become unavailable when it’s wet.

    Onya Malcayman!

  49. victoria @ 5398: The act of setting up an inquiry would pretty much concede that the sending of the photos was a sacking offence. Mr Turnbull wouldn’t want to have such an inquiry unless (a) he already knew who had sent the photos; and (b) was looking for a reason to sack that person.

  50. [Steve777

    Posted Wednesday, January 6, 2016 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    Re AA @5388: please send us some warm, dry air.]

    27/28c overnight 30+ during the day 70-80% humidity, though it did get down to 65% at around 5.00am

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