BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition

Three months on from the leadership change, the Coalition finishes the year with a crushing lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The final update of BludgerTrack for the year comes off the back of strong results for the Coalition from both Essential Research and Roy Morgan, resulting in a slight movement of 0.3% on the two-party preferred aggregate, and a seat gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Further:

• Labor’s Anna Burke has announced she will bow out at the next election, creating a vacancy in the eastern Melbourne seat of Chisholm, which she retained in 2013 with a margin of 1.6%. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the seat is reserved for Burke’s Right faction, but that this still leaves room for a turf war between the National Union of Workers and the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, both of whom are credited with about 35% of the seat’s branch membership. Monash councillor Stefanie Perri is likely to be the candidate of the NUW, while the SDA is intriguingly linked with a possible candidacy for Dimity Paul, who has been central to Victorian Labor’s recent internal crises as the complainant in the bullying action against her then employer, Adem Somyurek. This led to the latter’s dismissal as Victorian Small Business Minister and a split within the SDA sub-faction. The NUW’s prospects may stand to be boosted by a rapprochement with the Shorten-Conroy forces of the Right, which would bring them back under the umbrella of its “stability pact” with the Socialist Left.

• The Liberal National Party’s state executive voted 14-12 on Monday to block Ian Macfarlane’s move from the Liberal to the Nationals, raising questions about his future in the Toowoomba-based seat of Groom. Macfarlane threatened to quit politics if the move was rejected, and there is some concern in the Coalition that he may do so in the new year. Given that the state executive vote followed a 102-35 vote in favour of the move from the party’s Groom divisional council, which would dominate any preselection ballot, there appears to be the potential for a turf war in the seat between the party’s Liberal and Nationals components. I had a piece in Crikey on the subject that was run shortly before the state executive vote on Monday.

• Labor’s preselection for the seat of Robertson on the New South Wales Central Coast has been won by Anne Charlton, the chief-of-staff to Deb O’Neill, who held the seat from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, and is now a Senator. Charlton, who has gained media attention for her admission that she was addicted to heroin at the age of 16, won a local preselection vote by 98 to 72 ahead of Belinda Neal, who had a rocky ride as the seat’s member from 2007 to 2010, when she lost preselection to O’Neill. The seat was won for the Liberals at the 2013 election by Lucy Wicks, who holds it on a margin of 3.0%, which the proposed redistribution would nudge up to 3.2%.

• Also preselected by Labor in New South Wales over the weekend were Emma Husar, a disability services advocate who ran in Penrith at the state election in March, to run against Fiona Scott in Lindsay; and Fiona Philips, a tutor at the University of Wollongong and TAFE who ran in South Coast, to run against Ann Sudmalis in Gilmore.

• Crikey has a Christmas offer of a discounted annual subscription for its daily email and subscriber content, at $180 rather than the usual $219, plus a bonus $125 in books, DVDs and a 30-day Inkl premium subscription providing access to the Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, The Atlantic and more.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,879 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition”

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  4. Hi Bludgers

    Very pleased to see further confirmation of voter’s strong support for penalty rates, a real thumbs up for fairness. Lets hope the same goes for not raising the GST.

  8. bemused

    and that was the writer’s intention.

    He could equally have written an article which didn’t cast any suspicion on anybody, but where’s the fun in that?

  10. zoomster@2758

    bemused

    and that was the writer’s intention.

    He could equally have written an article which didn’t cast any suspicion on anybody, but where’s the fun in that?

    I suppose the same could be done for the Obeid family, or in Melbourne, the Williams family, the Moran family etc.

    Google the guy and get a bit of background and, if you have any capacity at all to join dots, you should get the picture.

  11. bemused

    Yes, the media doesn’t like the brother, so they’re smearing the rest of the family.

    She may be guilty, she may not be. But that isn’t up to us to decide, or the media, but is up to the police and the courts.

    It is particularly not up to us to decide that she is guilty of anything because her brother has been accused of various crimes (I note he is roaming free, so I assume he hasn’t been found guilty of anything too serious either).

  12. If cutting penalty rates is the solution to all the budget woes, business failures and unemployment; then everyone should take a pay cut. Imagine how many jobs could be created if people like Gina, Jones and any number of other CEO’s cut their salary to the equivalent of the minimum wage.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/stephen-cartwright-unions-robbing-youth-of-jobs-by-refusing-to-compromise-on-penalty-rates/story-fni0cwl5-1227686952639

  13. zoomster@2761

    bemused

    Yes, the media doesn’t like the brother, so they’re smearing the rest of the family.

    She may be guilty, she may not be. But that isn’t up to us to decide, or the media, but is up to the police and the courts.

    It is particularly not up to us to decide that she is guilty of anything because her brother has been accused of various crimes (I note he is roaming free, so I assume he hasn’t been found guilty of anything too serious either).

    There are plenty of facts out there. So far a court hasn’t heard charges and reached a verdict.

    You are free to adhere to the opinion that he and his associates are as pure as driven snow. I think otherwise.

  14. [Dave Oliver
    Dave Oliver – ‏@actudave

    My local cafe open today, Standing room only.Yes,they pay Penalty Rates and their doors are open. Go figure #ausunions
    4:03 PM – 26 Dec 2015
    41 RETWEETS25 LIKES]

  16. Red card from me for this penalty-rates polling:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-voters-reject-cut-in-sunday-penalty-rates-20151224-gluncn.html?utm_content=buffer04548&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    full results downloadable from TAI website here: http://www.tai.org.au/content/key-coalition-seats-oppose-reducing-sunday-penalty-rates-poll

    The problem: apparently forced-choice has been used on an issues question so someone with no view on the issue will say “stay the same”, otherwise they will be excluded from the poll. Alternatively there may be an undecided percentage that hasn’t been reported. The commissioning source then concludes that key seats oppose reducing penalty rates but the reality might really be that a lot of voters actually don’t care about the issue.

  17. A quote from the article linked by GG @2759:

    [“…the media can definitely weigh down — and even destroy — a candidate. The emphasis on a candidate’s flaws — real or perceived — comes at the cost of the candidate’s ability to focus his or her message and at the cost of negative attention to the other candidates. This is a problem for Clinton, and it seems unlikely to go away.”]

    Murdoch knows this, and he’s way too powerful in this country. He doesn’t fool everyone but he doesn’t have to – just shift a few percent on the margins.

  18. [You are free to adhere to the opinion that he and his associates are as pure as driven snow.]

    Which I haven’t done.

    [So far a court hasn’t heard charges and reached a verdict.]

    I could equally say the same of you. I would suggest that not being charged with anything suggests innocence, rather than guilt.

    Anyway, here’s the guy’s rap sheet –

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/salim-mehajer-inside-the-auburn-deputy-mayors-dark-past-and-police-rap-sheet/story-fni0cx12-1227492270974

    [His traffic convictions include five for speeding. Others are driving with a “TV/VDU image visible”, using a mobile phone and “operating a vehicle so the wheels lose traction” — known as doing burnouts.

    He disobeyed a stop sign, ran a red or yellow light, did an illegal U-turn, drove “not being left of the dividing line”, did not comply with a P plate and refused to produce a licence.]

    There are a heap of people out there with similar driving histories. That doesn’t make them – or their families – criminal masterminds.

    I note a conviction for malicious damage of property, but it can’t have been a very serious charge as there is no mention of the penalty.

  19. BK at 2663

    “I missed this one for the Dawn Patrol this morning. It’s a doozy!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/we-should-all-be-scared-by-the-downright-stupidity-of-some-americans-20151221-”

    Having lived in the USA on two ccasions & travelled there dozens of times, I used to be quite derisory of Americans. Over the past few years however, & especially the last two years, I have become similarly derisory of much of Australia.

    We seem to be a microcosm of the US in many ways & although I’d like to think we are not as bad, the Abbott years have given me cause to think more carefully. After all, aren’t Abbott, Pauline Hanson & Barnaby Joyce & their supporters remarkably similar to the American nutjobs?

  20. There was a poll done by reachtel in early December that asked if penalty rates were an issue for the voter at the next election. The results to my knowledge were not released. It now seems a follow up poll with different questions was done and was released.

  22. CTar1@2765

    bemused

    So far a court hasn’t heard charges and reached a verdict.


    Are there any charges?

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/auburn-deputy-mayor-salim-mehajer-charged-over-unlicensed-ferrari-20151025-gki6ea.html

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-facing-10-years-in-jail-on-vote-fraud-charges-20151220-glrrnm.html

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/councillors-law-degree-will-not-be-his-first-brush-with-courts-20140210-32cs9.html

    His life reads like a crime in progress.

  23. @silmaj/2770

    You mean that poll that TBA whinged about?

    Even if you get different poll, it still similar results, voters don’t like Penalty Rates cut.

  25. silmaj@2770

    There was a poll done by reachtel in early December that asked if penalty rates were an issue for the voter at the next election. The results to my knowledge were not released. It now seems a follow up poll with different questions was done and was released.

    They might have even been commissioned by different sources. This one was done on 17 Dec.

  29. zoomster@2776

    bemused

    Even if he was guilty of every crime under the sun, that would still have nothing to do with his sister.

    Yes and Judy Moran had no knowledge or involvement with the peccadilloes of hubby George or son Carl.

    [The Mehajer family has also been making headlines recently for other reasons

    Earlier in December, several members of the Mehajer family were charged over alleged fraud in relation to the 2012 Auburn council elections.]
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3375029/Building-owned-Salim-Mehajer-s-sister-gutted-fire.html

  33. There hasn’t been much mention of the fate of wildlife in the Victorian fires, but the area affected has lots of Koalas and I fear many will be killed in the fires. They are, of course, less able to flee than kangaroos and wallabies.

  34. Charlie Edwards

    I went to the US before I came to Australia. Arriving in Australia it struck how much it reminded me of the US. Sadly the trend since then has been towards Deep South rather than California or New England.

  35. bemused

    no, I’m agreeing with you. You’ve convinced me that assuming someone innocent until proven guilty is just hopelessly naive.

  39. Essential July 28 2015
    Q. Do you think people who are required to work outside of normal hours – like night shifts, weekends or public holidays – should receive a higher hourly rate of pay?

    YES 81%
    NO 13%
    DONT KNOW 6%

  40. Essential July 28 2015

    81% think that people who are required to work outside of normal hours should receive a higher hourly rate of pay and 13% think they should not. There has been no change of opinion on this issue since this question was first asked in May 2013.

    A large majority of all demographic and voter groups agree that worker should receive higher rates for working outside normal hours – although Labor voters (90%) and Greens voters (81%) are somewhat more likely to support this than Liberal/National voters (73%). 85% of part-time workers agree compared to 76% of full-time workers.

  41. Zoomster.. Re this Auburn thing: I’m guessing you’re under 30? I don’t mean it as a criticism. Certainly not. Wish I were under 30 myself. But as you get older, as Bemused was suggesting, you see this kind of thing quite a bit and you begin to see patterns.

  42. poroti

    [I went to the US before I came to Australia.]

    Good going – asked to leave NZ, rejected by the US but right at home in Perth. 😀

  44. Essential August 11 2015
    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Productivity Commission recommendation to cut Sunday penalty rates to the same level as Saturday rates for workers in hospitality, entertainment and retail?

    TOTALLY APPROVE – 32%
    TOTALLY DISAPPROVE – 54%

    32% approve of the Productivity Commission recommendation to cut Sunday penalty rates to the same level as Saturday rates for workers in hospitality, entertainment and retail and 54% disapprove.

    About half Liberal/National voters approve but other voter groups strongly disapprove.

    47% of fulltime workers and 62% of part-time workers disapprove. 57% of people earning less than $1,000 pw disapprove.

  45. alias@2791

    Zoomster.. Re this Auburn thing: I’m guessing you’re under 30? I don’t mean it as a criticism. Certainly not. Wish I were under 30 myself. But as you get older, as Bemused was suggesting, you see this kind of thing quite a bit and you begin to see patterns.

    Yes, over time you see plenty of people and families that are as dodgy as.

    Some my never be convicted of anything, but it remains a pretty sure bet that they dun it.

  46. poroti at 2784

    “I went to the US before I came to Australia. Arriving in Australia it struck how much it reminded me of the US. Sadly the trend since then has been towards Deep South rather than California or New England.”

    Agreed, quite humbling really.

  50. CTar1

    Best effort on that trip was lobbing into “Canadia” without a passport, mix up left it in San Fran, let in anyway with a promise to produce in a few days cos we were from the Commonwealth . Ya reckon it would happen these days ? 🙂

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