Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Turnbull’s stellar personal ratings take a hit in the latest Newspoll, but the two-party result remains unchanged despite the government’s bumpy ride last week.

The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,069 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. Lorax at 124:
    [I hate to agree with him, but he’s right you know.]

    There might be “reasons” why you hate to agree with TBA – it might not just be the emotional response to TBA idiocy.

    But quoting TBA to PBers demonstrates neither “reason” nor “persuasion” is part of your armoury.

  3. Shellbell,

    Shame about the Primaries, though. Which is where Malcolm’s Magnificence would have shown itself if it actually meant something to the voters.

  4. shell and GG

    North Sydney is an electorate with some unique characteristics and cannot be taken too seriously in indicating any future trends.

    The only thing I got out of it was, in fact, that the substantial drop in primaries for the Liberal candidate showed that the new Turnbull paradigm had not won over the hearts and minds of the Liberal heartland.

  7. Can’t say I’m surprised he’s said this.

    [
    Donald Trump calls to ban all Muslims from entering US

    Donald Trump, the leading contender to become the Republican party’s nominee for US presidential candidate, has called for a “total and complete shutdown” of the country’s borders to Muslims in the wake of the San Bernardino terrorist attack.

    Trump made his most extreme pledge yet – in a race in which he has consistently pushed the boat out on issues of race and immigration – in a statement released to the media through his presidential campaign team.
    ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/07/donald-trump-ban-all-muslims-entering-us-san-bernardino-shooting

  10. The big swing in Malcolm’s approval/disapproval will take a couple of weeks to flow through the the TPP methinks. But it certainly doesn’t bode well for the libs.
    Excellent to see that the NBN is now moving right onto the main agenda. The disconnect between Turnbull’s bullshit and the reality will become more and more obvious to the public. The whole issue should terrify him.

  13. One swallow doth not make a summer.

    But the movement on Turnbull’s netsat could be very significant (waiting on confirmation from other polls). Yes, yes, look at Bill, except LOTO sat ratings aren’t hugely relevant (and pretty much irrelevant this far out from this election I’d argue). The only way Shorten’s numbers would be relevant is if it gave Labor enough nerves for disunity to break out. There has been no sign of that so far despite all of the media trying to stir it, and with the signs of the faultlines in the Coalition becoming obvious I don’t think Labor will be changing their position on the leadership.

    But PM Netsats are very relevant. Satisfaction with a PM seems to being a leading indicator of 2PP. We saw that with Turnbull’s ascent. Great satisfaction ratings were followed after some time by the 2PP vote. Even with the big drop today Turnbull’s numbers of course aren’t going to see the government in any trouble on 2PP. The question is whether this is a blip, or an inflection point.

    I’ve always argued that Turnbull’s popularity was built on a mirage. A lot of people think he is something he most definitely is not, and will achieve things that he is incapable of delivering. And I have further argued that once a critical mass of people realise this his popularity is heading for the toilet. Which will then drag the 2PP down behind it.

    Today doesn’t prove or disprove the theory, but it is a piece in the puzzle. On the face of it 8% of the polled populace have noticed the last fortnight’s messiness and decided that Malcolm maybe isn’t as great as they thought. It hasn’t changed their vote (maybe they were all Labor voters anyway), but it’s the first dip in stratospheric trajectory Malcolm’s sat ratings were heading.

    I do think the Christmas break will give Turnbull some relief simply because no one will be polling for a while, so it will be hard to say if this was a significant point or not. But I do think there are real and obvious problems with the Government (and Turnbull’s handling of them) that have driven this number.

    Unless these issues are deal with, and I’ve already noted they are pretty much lose-lose for Turnbull, they will continue to fester and continue to take a bite out of Turnbull’s satisfaction ratings. I don’t predict that will translate into any significant 2PP movement for some time as it’s will mostly be the lefties with the most unreal expectations of Turnbull who will be peeled off first. It will probably not be until we see what they can conjure up in the budget that we’ll know if the Government is really in danger or not.

    So definitely not counting chickens, but Labor would be going to Christmas quietly pleased that not only is the media calling the honeymoon over, but some polling has offered a small note of confirmation that the voters have noticed also.

  14. Hockey –

    [ If I was going to stay it’d be overwhelmingly about getting even with people that brought me down. ]

    He considers turnbull knifed him back when abbott was elected leader and he knows abbott was more then willing to throw him under a bus for morrison if morrison had backed him in the recent spill- so much for abbott’s much cited ‘loyalty’.

    But hockey is still talking bullshit – *HE* bought himself down as much as others.

    He was/ is a dope promoted well beyond his ability.

    When he had to do more then bullshit and tell lies his utter incompetence couldn’t be hidden.

    Given his previous preaching to those less wealthy etc about the “end of entitlement” and to “get a good job” – what did dopey joe do ?

    He lined up for his “entitlement” – like the pathelic incompetent hypocrite he is.

    The Yanks will play him like a fiddle. They must be laughing their heads off that hockey is the best we can come up with us to represent us.

    So hockey is still talking bullshit and our fearless toothless MSM are still not challenging the worst Treasurer Australia has ever had.

  15. [If I was going to stay it’d be overwhelmingly about getting even with people that brought me down.]

    Possibly the most astute thing Joe Hockey has said in his entire life.

  16. I think we just might have found a more thankless job in politics than being a first term opposition leader after a rout.

    Defending Mal Brough.

    The only job in politics I’m aware of that not even some sacrificial sap can be found to volunteer for.

  19. Abbott, a ‘friend’ of Kathy, apparently escapes unscathed, but anyone in a Union who might have had drinks with Kathy is now fair game? I think this is stretching it a bit.

    [If Debbie Beale had so much as a bottle of water paid for her by Kathy Jackson from misappropriated HSU member’s funds then Shorten could easily find himself being seen as benefiting from the proceeds of crime.

    Given the stories I have heard, much of which is well-known within the union movement, regarding Jackson’s allegedly outrageous spending of union members funds in bars and restaurants, I would be very surprised if Beale was not a beneficiary of this spending, and hence Shorten indirectly, or perhaps even directly on occasion.]

    http://wixxyleaks.com/exs-and-ohs-jackson-investigation-looking-like-a-game-changer/

  20. ABC774 with fill in host Ali Moore, has been focused on the innovation statement since yesterday. Talk about being a booster for Truffles.

  21. lizzie

    I found wixxy’s latest musings rather odd. it is really stretching it into the realm of stupidity.

    Anyhoo. Talk later

  22. After watching 730 – I’m convinced the ALP should be pounding the pavement day and night about the NBN.

    The LNP position is a joke.

    ‘Innovation’ my arse! Copper is not innovation.

  23. Victoria @ 170,
    Yeah, caught a bit of Ali Moore doing her Marvelous Malcolm spiel yesterday when getting in the car. Couldn’t get it over to SEN and KB quick enough. So she is still carrying on, is she?

  24. [If Debbie Beale had so much as a bottle of water paid for her by Kathy Jackson from misappropriated HSU member’s funds then Shorten could easily find himself being seen as benefiting from the proceeds of crime.]

    Yes. I found that bit quite weird. People with cash often throw largesse around. Sometimes people without cash throw largesse around and live like old age pensioners behind the scenes. I have never heard of third parties being pursued because someone who was found to have embezzled money gave them a gift or bought them dinner.

    That said, that report seems to provide an explanation as to why the TURC tried to get hold of Debbie Beale’s personal records and shows, once more, its blatant political nature and objectives.

  25. Good Morning

    I am not surprised by this Newspoll result. The whole Brough thing has not yet reached Bronwyn Bishop proportions.

    Julie Bishop got as much attention from voters that do no follow politics on her commercial flight.

    Shorten is being damaged by Turc that is why his popularity figure is so low. The news about the alleged blackmail and association carefully crafted by the LNP in voters minds about that.

    Those of us politically engaged thought the average voter was paying attention to Brough and they are but they are waiting to see what happens and in the meantime are enjoying the positive spin of exciting agile times we live in.

  26. Lefty – e: I think the cat is really out of the bag now with the NBN. There will be more and more leaks from within the NBN (must be lots of pissed off people in there) and the journos will start focusing on it.

  31. It appears that Malcolm’s God complex is more extreme that first thought. It could find him out big time over the next few months, going by his recent performances.

  32. [ and the journos will start focusing on it. ]

    I wish. 🙁 Outside of the tech press not many do, although now that its being tied to the innovation thing, AND the Libs are obviously going to miss deadlines for their “promises” i hope there will be more people pinning MalPM.

  33. leftye @ 142,

    ‘ Is it possible people like Talcum but still HATE the LNP? Like they clearly did under Abbott?’

    And, is the corollary also true, that the people love Labor but dislike Bill Shorten? I’d love to know if there is any PolSci research about the average % an unpopular leader drags down his party’s vote.

  36. lefty e

    [Copper is not innovation.]
    Some 24k crap from Truffles about copper on 7:30
    [LEIGH SALES: Many people in that sector and other sectors would tell you that the most critical thing for their business these days is a speedy internet. So why then do you continue to back a broadband network that relies on a decrepit copper network?

    MALCOLM TURNBULL: Why do – but that is just – with great respect, that is just completely wrong. I mean, I …

    LEIGH SALES: It relies on copper to get from the node to the house and that copper network’s old.

    MALCOLM TURNBULL: Yeah. But it doesn’t matter whether it’s old or young as long as it works. We….]

  39. Labor needs to plant many seeds of doubts in voters minds before christmas – otherwise there will be a lot of social reinforcement that he’s the man over christmas. I am finding that at silly season gatherings the general feeling across the voting spectrum is:

    1. absolute relief that abbott is gone. even the staunchest libs I know hated him. I think the love of turnbull comes largely from this – he got rid of abbott and is smart and articulate and seems to be letting his ministers go off script and to be smart and articulate too.

    2. there’s a sense that we’ve lost a decade or two with abbott-rudd-gillard-howard and now back to a keating-like government of ideas and forward thinking vision (which I argue is very unfair to gillard).

    3. optimism that turnbull will deliver thoughtful, consultative, moderate, reformist and fair government. I argue against this, but the feeling seems to be he’s good.

    4. a sense that he’s biding his time until after an election to do what he really wants to do. there is a sense he has a progressive reformist agenda similar to keating’s and will look out for people and create opportunities (I am not convinced of this – I think he has much of the IPA view that we should americanise our systems and have a sink or swim /dog eat dog approach).

    5. no confidence in shorten and not even the staunchest labor faithful expect him to win the election. best quote: “you feel a bit as though your team is going into the grand final with your seconds when the other team has just hit peak form’

    6. a sense that shorten losing and turnbull winning will not be such a bad thing as it will end the howard-abbott era and bring aust politics back to the centre.

    7. a sense that the Greens represent progressive views better than shorten’s labor.

    8. support for plibersek, albo, bourke and wong (if she moved to the lower house) as leaders ahead of shorten, but a sense they’ll only get a go after a term or two of turnbull.

    I’ve argued that you can’t trust turnbull because of the sociopathic hard right ‘liberals’ behind him, but there’s a sense he’ll outfox them and reform the libs. I hope this is right.

    many progressives feel that turnbull will be able to make more lasting progressive changes than shorten, but only after he has won an election.

    at this stage it is hard to see turnbull not winning in a landslide.

  42. lizzie @ 147,

    ‘ I agree with TPOF, zoomster and DTT. Not everyone has the physical and emotional strength to deal with a disabled child. I know I haven’t. Triggs tried to make the best decision she could under her particular circumstances.’

    As the mother of a disabled child I think I can uniquely speak to the subject du jour today wrt Gillian Triggs’ decision to leave her child in the care of others.

    Luckily, I guess, I had had a career before I gave birth to my 2nd, disabled child. He spent the first 3 months of his life in Intensive Care just struggling to survive. After getting through that, and with the knowledge that this was only the beginning, I pretty much decided that my professional career was over for the moment. As it turned out, it was pretty much over for good as I have spent the last 20 years doing whatever it took to deal with his medical condition and undertake whatever repairative operations and procedures that were necessary to set him up as best I could for his adult life.

    Anyway, as I never was a person driven to keep working and carving out a career, I, at least, felt happy to abandon it all for the sake of my son. I never made a better decision in all my life! However, and I can see this as virtually no one else here can, I can also understand how bloody depressing and dispiriting it could have been if I had felt that my child’s birth and his problems had stymied a bright future in my profession. Post Natal Depression, and just Depression in general, is bad and can lead to all sorts of horrible consequences, so, in the end it us up to each woman to do what is right for her and her particular situation, and no external correspondence should be entered into on the matter.

    It’s that simple.

    It’s that simple because it is a unique decision only a mother and her partner can make taking into account all the psychological, psychosocial and physical variables of their particular situation. I think I can safely say that Gillian Triggs is smart enough and empathetic enough to have made the right decision for her and her family.

  43. mex

    It is none of you business how parents deal with a disabled child you may be lucky enough to have never been in that situation.

    There but for the grace of God go I!

  44. kevin-one-sevem

    how so? I think it is going to be like the hawks vrs west coast GF and labor are not wearing the gold and brown. the main thing will be whether turnbull gets control of the upper house or can do so with support of a few far right loons.

  45. [2. there’s a sense that we’ve lost a decade or two with abbott-rudd-gillard-howard and now back to a keating-like government of ideas and forward thinking vision (which I argue is very unfair to gillard).]

    Even though I don’t have much time for Rudd, I think this is unfair to him also. He and his government were hit hard between the eyes by the GFC barely a year into government. Most of us here agree that the response by him and his government was world best practice.

  46. [It appears that Malcolm’s God complex is more extreme that first thought. It could find him out big time over the next few months, going by his recent performances.]

    Turnbull’s hubris is a massive risk for him.

  47. C@tmomma

    Kevin Bonham has done a fair bit of work on the links between leader and party popularity. Probably on his website.

    From memory, the linkage is quite strong for PMs but quite weak and sometimes non existent for OLs.

    So we should be wishing a lot harder for Turnbull’s ratings to fall than for Shorten’s to rise. Fortunately Turnbull appears to have embarked on that journey.

  48. TPOF

    I agree to an extent, but Rudd did not have a whole lot of vision bewond what focus groups told him he should do to be popular. like abbott, he was in politics to be PM first and foremost, but didn’t have a whole lot of things he really wanted to achieve while he was there. the GDC made him more activist than he’d promised to be when elected. people such as whitlam, keating, gillard and turnbull are there to make a difference. howard and abbott were there to stop change and take things backwards.

  49. K17

    I don’t expect Shorten to win the next election for a range of reasons – but most particularly because Turncoat is at least a normal PM, not the psychopath he replaced. But I think Shorten has a real chance of doing do, depending on how things go with the Government.

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