|Lou Pollard (Arts Party)||1276||1.9%|
|William Bourke (Sustainable Population)||2032||3.0%|
|Sam Kennard (Liberal Democrats)||1395||2.1%|
|Kerry Bromson (Voluntary Euthanasia)||663||1.0%|
|James Jansson (Future Party)||474||0.7%|
|Arthur Chesterfield-Evans (Greens)||10883||16.1%||16.1%||+0.8%|
|Maryann Beregi (Independent)||2416||3.6%|
|Silvana Nero (Christian Democratic)||1754||2.6%||2.6%||+1.6%|
|Robert James Marks (Palmer United)||320||0.5%||0.5%||-1.2%|
|Trent Zimmerman (Liberal)||32107||47.5%||47.4%||-13.6%|
|Stephen Ruff (Independent)||12732||18.8%|
|Luke Freeman (Australian Cyclists)||717||1.1%|
|Tim Bohm (Bullet Train for Australia)||800||1.2%|
|% of enrolled voters||64.8%|
|Booths returned (of 43)||39|
1am. I’ve finally updated with final numbers for the night. The Liberals reportedly say they expect to win 58-42, which is at the high end of what I would have been expecting for them.
8.59pm. The AEC have stopped publishing the Liberal-versus-Greens results, in recognition that this is a Zimmerman-versus-Ruff contest.
8.30pm. Shellbell in comments points out the Palmer United candidate is coming last, with all of 199 votes.
8.16pm. For a point of comparison, Sophie Mirabella got 21% of preferences when she was defeated in Indi. If Zimmerman does about that well, his winning margin will be about 5%.
8.04pm. Now up to 26 booths on the primary vote. The situation there isn’t fundamentally changing, apart from a slight improvement in the Liberals’ position.
8.02pm. For what it’s worth, preferences are favouring the Greens over the Liberals by 59.5-40.5.
7.57pm. Sorry, wasn’t thinking in that last entry. The 2CP result in Liberal-versus-Greens, so it’s not surprising it’s heavily favouring the Liberals. What we need to know is the flow of preferences between Zimmerman and Ruff, which we won’t know this evening. Nonetheless, I’ve managed to fix up my table so the Liberal-versus-Greens 2PP is flowing through to it correctly.
7.51pm. There are, in fact, eight booths down as reporting on 2PP on the AEC site, and they suggest a clearer win for the Liberals than I’d thought – a 15.3% margin, although the early reporting booths were particularly strong ones from the Liberals.
7.43pm. Primary vote booth results continue to trickle in, bringing us up to 18 out of 43, but none of them are radically changing the outlook of a Liberal primary vote of around 46%-47%. In other words, a two-party booth result will be needed before there will be much of interest to add, unless some of the outstanding primary vote results throw up some surprises.
7.38pm. Now out to fourteen booths, and I’m still tracking the Liberal primary vote to come in at 45% or maybe a bit higher. Stephen Ruff’s lead over the third-placed Greens has narrowed a little, but I expect he’ll do better on preferences so still looks set to finish second. On current indications, he’d need 86% of preferences to win.
7.30pm. Eleven booths in now, and the primary vote swing against the Liberals is a more moderate but still imposing 14.7%. Zimmerman clearly headed for victory, but we’ll need some two-party results before we have a clear idea what the margin will look like.
7.26pm. A further two booths don’t change the situation on the primary vote. Still no two-party booth results yet, so no idea of preference flows.
7.17pm. Seven booths in now, and Zimmerman’s position has improved enough to suggest he should make it home. But with Ruff maintaining second place, he won’t have a hugely impressive margin after preferences.
7.10pm. Two booths in – St Leonards and Neutral Bay West – and they suggest a bigger drop in the Liberal primary vote than they’d feel comfortable with, particularly given that independent Stephen Ruff, who could presumably expect a pretty strong preference flow, has so far outpolled the Greens.
6pm. Voting has closed in the North Sydney by-election. Results should be a while coming, given that this is a city electorate with large booths, and there is a very large field of 13 candidates. This post will feature result projections and commentary as results start to roll in, which I’m guessing will be in a bit over an hour.