Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Turnbull’s stellar personal ratings take a hit in the latest Newspoll, but the two-party result remains unchanged despite the government’s bumpy ride last week.

The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,069 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. TBA, 1049

    “Stop the boats, axe the tax” didn’t include a “don’t let the gays marry” in it.

    Besides, opinion polling says there’s an overwhelming majority in favour of legalisation.

  2. [“Stop the boats, axe the tax” didn’t include a “don’t let the gays marry” in it.

    Besides, opinion polling says there’s an overwhelming majority in favour of legalisation.]

    There are very very few people who are opposed and they are dangerously stupid they need to take a good hard look at themselves. There is a song or tune that suggests suicide is painless, they should consider it.

  3. Airlines,

    Abbott took the policy of no gay marriage if elected.

    I have to scratch my head at those though that claim to want Gay Marriage yet want to do everything they can to stop a Plebescite happening despite constantly telling us everyone wants it. Interesting aint it?

  6. TBA, 1053

    So *every* Abbott policy was supported 100% by the electorate?

    Secondly, the plebiscite is wrong for the following reasons:
    -It’s a glorified opinion poll, and the opinion polls that we are getting show a strong majority
    -Will cost up to $150 million depending on when it’s scheduled (read: enough for many many opinion polls)
    -Potentially harmful to queer youth due to advertising etc
    -No precedent on having a plebiscite
    -Why not have a plebiscite on the carbon tax, the mining tax, the GST, etc, why marriage equality
    -The idea of voting to restrict someone’s personal freedoms is bullshit and shouldn’t be even considered as a legitimate option in the liberal democracy that we are

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/a-same-sex-marriage-plebiscite-is.html

    Whatever I missed that was in the above article

  7. [Cool. Lets have a Plebiscite.]

    Perhaps we could afford pointless plebiscites for idiots like you, if Malcolm wasn’t wasting so much on the slower rollout of an inferior NBN. But he is burning like 10’s of billions of money because he is an economic vandal.

  11. How has Albanese been undermining Shorten? Just because a clear majority of Labor party branch members, and now voters in opinion polls, would prefer Albanese as leader, does not mean Shorten is being undermined. It might just be that Shorten is being understood.

  12. More comedy gold from Bronwyn. A good independent might do OK in Mackellar.
    [The 73 year-old former Speaker told guests at a Christmas drinks party at her Newport home on Tuesday evening that she had been “exonerated” over the “choppergate” expenses scandal and was energised to serve another three year term as MP.]

    If she was “exonerated” why did she repay the money? Why was the AFP report kept secret?
    Have a good day all. Relax too. No security fears now. Bronwyn is on the job. She will spare no expense in her pursuit of terrorists.

  13. Good Morning all

    Daniel Andrews has indicated he will support a GST. However his conditions are simple.

    The LNP has to take it to an election and win first.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Waleed Aly cuts Bolt’s legs off on “The Project”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/waleed-aly-takes-on-andrew-bolt-over-climate-change-let-me-nip-this-in-the-bud-20151210-gljuj1.html
    Oh, the poor petals!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/mlc-private-sydney-girls-school-in-turmoil-after-30-staff-go-out-the-door-students-launch-petition-20151207-glhlv2.html
    This guy needs to take a good hard look at himself.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-brushes-off-cleaning-debt-20151209-glj9qh.html
    WANTED. A good Independent candidate for the seat of Mackellar.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishop-wants-to-stay-in-parliament-to-fight-terrorism-20151209-gljgvy.html
    Abbott is getting under Turnbull’s skin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-fires-back-at-tony-abbott-over-calls-for-revolution-within-islam-20151209-glj6bi.html
    Fraud seems to be growing at quite a rate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/inside-job-bosses-funding-flash-lifestyles-the-biggest-fraudsters-20151209-glj3wz.html
    This QC says the NSW ICAC must get back to work.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-icac-must-be-allowed-to-get-back-to-business-20151209-glj9mi.html
    Abbott – the new friend of white supremacists.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/muslims-dont-need-western-cultural-supremacists-to-tell-them-what-islam-needs-20151208-glj0d9.html
    “Abbott has a cause, an audience and no restraints”, says Michelle Grattan.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/09/gst-15-rise-would-hit-lowest-earners-hardest-latest-modelling-shows
    This SMH editorial urges the Liberal Party and Warringah electors to consider whether or not they want Abbott to stay in parliament.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/does-australia-want-tony-abbott-to-stay-in-parliament-20151208-glizja.html

  18. Section 2 . . .

    The Victorian Auditor-General has handed down an excoriating report on the debacle of the East West Link. (Isn’t this the project that Abbott was hold up to be a winner?)
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-its-a-mess-michael-obrien-much-of-it-is-your-fault-20151209-glj7lw.html
    The latest modelling from the PBO shows that a 15% GST would affect low income earners the most. Surprise, surprise!
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/09/gst-15-rise-would-hit-lowest-earners-hardest-latest-modelling-shows
    Stephen Koukoulas reckons Labor could offer good value for punters.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/as-turnbull-s-gloss-fades-are-labor-the-better-bet.html
    What say do our elected representatives have in a decision for us to go to war?
    https://theconversation.com/what-say-do-our-elected-representatives-have-in-going-to-war-51860
    Peter Martin says that by the time the government puts its tax options on the table it’s likely a 15% GST won’t be on it.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/off-the-table-why-the-gst-wont-be-lifted-to-15-per-cent-20151209-gljold.html
    A re-energised Labor is finding ways to exploit the tensions appearing in the Coalition.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/12/09/re-energised-alp-takes-govt-task-gst-abbott/
    “View from the Street” has some fun with Abbott. Again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/does-australia-want-tony-abbott-to-stay-in-parliament-20151208-glizja.html
    Donald Trump is acting as a wick to bring the underlying racism of much of America to the surface. He’s also making a mess of the Republican Party which is splitting in all directions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/donald-trump-is-giving-voice-to-angry-america-20151208-gliwpj.html
    Bob Ellis on the last seven days marking the week that the gloss came off Turnbull.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/12/09/seven-days/
    The leaks. The leaks. Was Turnbull telling porkies about MacFarlane’s dropping from the ministry?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leaked-talking-points-admit-liberal-defector-macfarlane-disappointed-not-to-be-reappointed-to-cabinet-20151209-glj650.html

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