The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.
In fact losing by 1 seat in the Queensland election would actually make it the best result in history for losing government in Queensland.
Now… back to Keneallys record, lets check it out:
1. Worst Seat loss for ALP in NSW State History
2. Worst Primary vote for ALP in NSW State History
3. Worst amount of total seats won for the ALP in NSW State History
She certainly is a mesiah for the Labor Party true believers though, they really do rally around their A-Class losers like Kirner and Keneally
TPOF,
Lot’s of words not much information.
Morrison/Turnbull want the GST increase to be politically worn by the States. After all, they get the benefit of the proceeds. Then they can say the attached income tax cuts are all about their good economic management.
The States want the money without the responsibility of raising the GST.
Who will win?
‘Treasurer Scott Morrison has threatened to kill off any reform of the GST, warning state counterparts that if they want to use the extra revenue simply to prop up their budgets, he is not interested in doing a deal.’
Who said we wanted ‘reform of the GST’ in the first place!?!
It’s only the Tories that have engineered the need for GST ‘reform’ by asset stripping the Health and Education budgets for the States!
So really, when Morrison tries to heavy the States into capitulating they should just give him the political finger and say, ‘Just try and take it to an election and see how you go, Sunny Jim!’
As far as this goes, ‘ if they want to use the extra revenue simply to prop up their budgets’, well, Mr Jekyll & Hyde Morrison (Nice guy one day, ogre-like dipstick the next), what is ‘propping up the States’ budgets’ to you, is providing services such as Health and Education to them!
This guy really is turning out to be more of an ideological warrior than Hockey! He wants to ramp up the GST by 50% in order to give his mates at the BCA and the IPA and ACCI a nice little earner of a corporate tax cut, and if the States don’t swallow hard and accept it then he’ll cut their Education & Health budgets off at the knees and privatise the lot!
This man is dangerous and needs to be stopped before we turn into a nation where surf morphs into serf. Where ‘only the best will do’ for some, and the rest can eat cake crumbs!
[Your advocacy of a 12.5% GST is tedious and wrong.]
So you’ve said before.
TBA,
The LNP are so excited about Opposition I hear.
Bronwyn Bishop wants to stay in Parliament to ‘fight terrorism’
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishop-wants-to-stay-in-parliament-to-fight-terrorism-20151209-gljgvy.html#ixzz3totRd6nW
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Hilarious, she like Tony has decided to help Mal become the longest serving liberal PM since ww2
If the GST is to increased it should apply to everyone without giving the money back in compensation, which is borderline socialist.
Everyone has to pay their fair share of tax and those making the most money will pay signficantly more than those on low incomes because they will be spending more.
WeWantPaul@1004
And you persist with your folly. 🙁
TrueBlueAussie@1001
You’d think so, but I would say no. 1995 was closer as it came down to one disputed seat with a margin of 16 votes, the result of which was annulled leaving an effective draw until Labor lost the subsequent by-election causing a change of government. Had Labor’s margin in that last seat been even ten votes greater they may have survived the court challenge. Fifty votes greater would have certainly been enough – so 2015 was not in fact the closest Queensland election!
That aside I actually agree that the 2015 result was not the worst ever for the conservatives. Swing should not be the ultimate measure of the badness of a result given how volatile election results are from term to term.
GG @ 1002
[Lot’s of words not much information.]
At least I know where to put my apostrophes. 🙂
More seriously, the whole point is that if ScoMo doesn’t want the proceeds of increasing or broadening the GST to ‘prop up’ the State budgets, why would they have the slightest interest?
ScoMo is aware that the GST is a Commonwealth tax, albeit one which technically and politically requires State/Territory support but he seems to think that the STs will support it if there is nothing in it for them. The man is bizarre.
And C@tmomma at 1003 pretty much nailed it.
[And you persist with your folly. :(]
And you persist in asserting it is wrong but without basis so I’m not even refining my ideas on your input.
As an unrelated aside I’m in a multifunction centre funded by Labor, something the useless school never acknowledged
The concerning thing about Bronwyn is not that she holds these delusional beliefs about her usefulness to the parliament, but that there seem from the article to be preselectors in her electorate whose brains dribble out holes in their ankles as soon as a candidate makes token anti-terror noises.
WeWantPaul@1012
I made the basis clear yesterday.
You are ceding the principle so moving the debate onto just the quantum.
Doesn’t strike me as a smart move.
Should Bronwyn Bishop recontest her seat at the next election?
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishop-wants-to-stay-in-parliament-to-fight-terrorism-20151209-gljgvy.html#ixzz3toycDq6r
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Bugger I voted YES ONLY TO FIND I WAS IN THE MINORITY 7% to 93%
The 2015 election was not even the LNP`s worst election result. They did worse in 2009, their first election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_state_election,_2009
[I made the basis clear yesterday.
You are ceding the principle so moving the debate onto just the quantum.
Doesn’t strike me as a smart move.
]
You are the target market you aren’t going to vote for the Libs and a 15% gst if you so strongly oppose a 12.5% GST or still believe in rollback
I reckon cut the GST to 5%, get rid of the stupid distribution formula, increase income tax and gives the states enough to run their budgets.
You are NOT the target market I mean!
[19.I reckon cut the GST to 5%, get rid of the stupid distribution formula, increase income tax and gives the states enough to run their budgets]
What 2pp vote do you think that would attract in 2016 Australia?
WeWantPaul@1017
I believe we are stuck with the GST so leave it alone at 10%.
I would very much like to see modelling of what could be done to the tax scales to produce the same revenue increases as the various proposed GST changes. Elimination of private health insurance subsidies could be included.
Kevin Bonham @ 1013,
‘ The concerning thing about Bronwyn is not that she holds these delusional beliefs about her usefulness to the parliament, but that there seem from the article to be preselectors in her electorate whose brains dribble out holes in their ankles as soon as a candidate makes token anti-terror noises.’
The invasion of the Japanese Midget Subs appears to have had a long-lasting effect on those people. And you think I’m joking! 😀
[ Fibre on demand is a myth. NBN won’t do it. They will erect ludicrous procedural barriers to prevent you from getting it. It is available in theory only. ]
From what i have read so far, with a FTTdp system, upgrading to FTTP is actually fairly easy. Probably something a premises owner could get done by a contractor. Where as Fiber on demand from a FTTN network is complete bollocks.
FTTP is better and the way we should go, but sounds to me like FTTdp is viable and not the disaster FTTN will be.
Sad. We could have had an NBN under Labor and now am actually happy that a less worst option is out there.
🙁
I do not consider myself a swinging voter, although I do consider my vote.
If Labor had a policy to increase the income tax scales I would vote LNP.
WWP @ 1024,
‘ If Labor had a policy to increase the income tax scales I would vote LNP.’
Do you include the Medicare Levy in that equation?
C@tmomma
The residents of Manly can sleep safe in their beds knowing Air Commodore Bishop will undertake regular helicopter patrols out the heads looking for terrorists
[Do you include the Medicare Levy in that equation?]
If nothing else changed yes. If the surcharge was removed for those without private insurance and the private insurance rebate was removed and redirected into health no.
[Bugger I voted YES ONLY TO FIND I WAS IN THE MINORITY 7% to 93%]
I voted ‘Yes’ also. How many other ‘Yes’ votes are from Labor supporters wishing as much disruption as possible on the Liberals?
Tpof
7%
WWP
Like TBA you want the tax system to be less progressive.
[I believe we are stuck with the GST so leave it alone at 10%.]
People, especially those on limited low incomes, make a lot of spending decisions around ongoing stability in prices. Change the costs of things wholesale and it forces a lot of people to make changes to their lifestyle they don’t want to bother about. Compensation impacts unevenly depending on how people spend their money and how they source their incomes.
GST should be left at 10% – no move either way – and let people get on with their lives without introducing more unnecessary variables.
Labor could possibly allow an increase in the GST after the Government has seriously cut back superannuation concessions for high income earners, agreed to phase out the CGT discount, agreed to phase out the private health insurance rebate, taken serious measures to collect tax from multinationals and started phasing out subsidies for property speculation (a.k.a. Negative gearing).
Otherwise, no way.
[Like TBA you want the tax system to be less progressive.]
Lol yes you understand – no way you are ridiculously wrong.
[33.Labor could possibly allow an increase in the GST after the Government has seriously cut back superannuation concessions for high income earners, agreed to phase out the CGT discount, agreed to phase out the private health insurance rebate, taken serious measures to collect tax from multinationals and started phasing out subsidies for property speculation (a.k.a. Negative gearing).]
Yeah I agree essentially I think the only way Labor can achieve those important outcomes is at least a 12.5% GST. So the GST increase is effectively the sacrificial pawn to take the real prizes
Other things the Government should do before even thinking about raising the GST: drop ideologic boondoggles like the Chapliancy program and Marriage Equality plebiscite. Wind back support for private schools back to where it was in 1996 over a period of about 5 years, with a view to dropping it altogether after about 10-15, i.e. Incorporate religious schools into the public system, as has been done in other polities. Those who don’t want to do that can be on their own.
Man! You blink and Dave Brubeck and Scott Weiland die.
I will never forget the rush of hearing Take Five for the first time….. Wow! Music can sound like that!?
And I will never forget the emotions of riding the V-Line bus to see my girlfriend, listening to Interstate Love Song taped from JJJ.
I must say the biggest inequity in our tax system is its systematic failure to tax or massive under taxation of real wealth. Income flows are a terrible proxy for wealth and every mindless ‘tax high income earners more’ is a really ignorant shallow attack and not on the really wealthy, the really wealthy have their money in the Caymans and almost entirely avoid having to pay tax. Our very own Captain Cayman basically admitting he voluntarily paid income tax because he wanted to be PM while his other rich mates carefully did not pay the same tax.
WeWantPaul@1024
And yet you promote increasing the highly regressive GST. Shame on you!
No Wait! He died 3 years ago! And I missed it!?
If Michelle Grattan’s report is anything to go by, any GST change is dead in the water:
http://theconversation.com/differences-with-states-on-tax-reform-could-be-irreconcilable-morrison-52093
[And yet you promote increasing the highly regressive GST. Shame on you!]
Sometimes to achieve the really important you have to accept some lumps. I know the greens don’t understand this, or don’t admit to it, but I am honestly surprised to find you don’t.
[“Other things the Government should do before even thinking about raising the GST: drop ideologic boondoggles like the Chapliancy program and Marriage Equality plebiscite.”]
Don’t you want Gay Marriage?
Also it’s going to take a lot of axed Chaplaincy programs to pay back Labors $300 Billion in debt they racked up.
TPOF@1040
Peter Martin was saying so on ABC radio Nighlife.
Morrison doesn’t want the states to get any proceeds.
The states would only accept it if they got the money.
Hey TBA – let’s have a plebiscite on the GST increase. Why not? Are the Libs chicken?
WeWantPaul@1041
I similarly just do not comprehend your position.
Scott Morrison seems to be a graduate of the Abbott school of negotiation.
Steve777@1046
A low rent thug.
[I similarly just do not comprehend your position.]
My charming humour would have me say that I’ll just keep trying now, but I wont I shall give up, so if I do comment on the topic it is in hope to learn more from an exchange with someone other than your usually fine self.
[“Hey TBA – let’s have a plebiscite on the GST increase. Why not? Are the Libs chicken?”]
We have already had an election on Gay Marriage… it was rejected by the Australian People.
If it’s rejected for a second time at the next election it should be put to a Plebescite.
If Gay Marriage gets rejected by a Plebescite of the people then it should be dumped as an idea.
A GST Increase has never been put to an election, but if it is put to this election and it is accepted by the Australian people then there is no need for a Plebescite.
[A GST Increase has never been put to an election, but if it is put to this election and it is accepted by the Australian people then there is no need for a Plebescite.]
I largely agree the plebiscite call is idiotic in almost any context.
There is a qualification. If a party wins the HoR with less than 50% tpp there is a real question about what elements they actually have a mandate for. Howard for example did not have a mandate for the GST in the first place, he had less than 50% TPP and he didn’t have the senate where both democrats and labor had sworn black and blue they would opposed it and vote against it come what may. The correct outcome would have been for no GST but Howard rammed it through and the democrats failed to honor their commitment to voters and deserved to be destroyed afterwards as they were.