Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Turnbull’s stellar personal ratings take a hit in the latest Newspoll, but the two-party result remains unchanged despite the government’s bumpy ride last week.

The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,069 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Sorry if this is a stupid question. But if you’re going to take the fibre to the curb or driveway why wouldn’t you go the extra few metres and take it all the way to the premises?

  2. [Sorry if this is a stupid question. But if you’re going to take the fibre to the curb or driveway why wouldn’t you go the extra few metres and take it all the way to the premises?]

    Because you’re a smug moron who took on the job of destroying a truly revolutionary infrastructure project in order to stay close enough to be able to strike when the even bigger moron that replaced you as leader proves himself to be sooo completely stupid that he has to be thrown under the bus and you get to be PM, BUT you’re far too smug and up yourself to admit a mistake so you have to continue doing stupid things to the NBN and hope no one much notices.

  3. Evening all.

    Just been walking around my area lately, and I’ve already started to notice a bunch of campaign boards for my Federal Labor candidate on street corners and such; but I have yet to see any material from any other candidates, even from the sitting member.

    Interesting.

  4. “How’s this for a journo taking no prisoners.”

    A big shift for someone from Age since they were always so supportive of EWLink. Murdoch mob still trying to push this as a Labor fail but what he says is pretty reasonable. Napthine mob should take responsibility. They screwed taxpayer big time.

  5. [Sorry if this is a stupid question. But if you’re going to take the fibre to the curb or driveway why wouldn’t you go the extra few metres and take it all the way to the premises?]

    Not stupid. I dont know a lot about it yet, but, it seems to have to do with savings on equipment, and savings on the works to run the fiber to the house compared to FTTH.

    I’d prefer FTTH fer sure. And frankly want to do more reading on this before i comment too much. 🙂

  6. With fibre to the dp what is a likely cost for the occupier to get at their cost fibre across the setback and into the house on your average suburban lot?

  7. Lance,

    O’Brien is trying to spin this big time. But, there ain’t much love on the twitter. Look for #springst if you are interested.

  8. Just made this comment under the article on East West Link:
    [Rather than the Andrews Govt. costing the state $780 Million, cancellation of the project has save the state almost 12 Billion!

    The project as stated was going to cost $23 Billion with a return of only 45 cents in the dollar.

    So a loss of 55 dents for each dollar spent = $12.65 Billion.

    Deduct the $780 million to cancel and the net saving is $11.87 Billion!

    The behaviour of the former government was an utter disgrace.

    Good financial managers? Pigs arse!]
    Don’t know if it will be published.

  9. GG @ 956

    This is the kicker for me and always has been:

    [As treasurer of this state, O’Brien should have taken this $23 billion project to an election – scheduled to be held just 60 days after the contracts were signed.

    Not one cent would have been wasted if people had been given the chance to vote. If the coalition won, the project went ahead; if it lost, taxpayers were not out of pocket.]

    There was simply no legitimate public interest reason to sign the contract at the time. There may have a lot of sleazy political reasons, but no public interest. I am just astounded that there has not been a Royal Commission around the circumstances in which the contract was signed, when a two month delay would have cost little or nothing.

  10. bemused,

    More power to your arm comrade.

    Get stuck in to O’Brien on Twitter at #springst if you are not already.

    Cheers

  11. WWP
    Fibre on demand is a myth. NBN won’t do it. They will erect ludicrous procedural barriers to prevent you from getting it. It is available in theory only.

  12. TPOF@967

    GG @ 956

    I am just astounded that there has not been a Royal Commission around the circumstances in which the contract was signed, when a two month delay would have cost little or nothing.

    Well there hasn’t been yet. I am still hopeful there will be.

    It was probably a good idea to wait for the Auditor General’s report before doing anything to initiate a Royal Commission.

    There are a number of other matters that could be dealt with by the same RC.

  13. Now what possible reason could there be for the ‘indecent haste’ in getting contracts signed ? Stupidity , incompetence or something more base ?

  14. Roger Miller@970

    WWP
    Fibre on demand is a myth. NBN won’t do it. They will erect ludicrous procedural barriers to prevent you from getting it. It is available in theory only.

    Am I correct that if not everyone opts to connect to the NBN, the old copper telephone network will have to be kept running in parallel to the NBN?

    Yet more cost blowout.

  15. bemused,

    You can be Captain Mainwaring of the Dad’s Army brigade or use the technology to get “up em”. They don’t like it “up em”.

    Your choice.

  16. Bemused
    No. The POTS network gets turned off 18 months after ready for service. Who knows what will happen with FTTN as bugger all is ready for service.

  17. WeWantPaul@963

    With fibre to the dp what is a likely cost for the occupier to get at their cost fibre across the setback and into the house on your average suburban lot?

    A lot more than if all were connected by the NBN contractor doing the other fibre work.

    Plus it will be an up-front cost rather than being a small component of the monthly NBN charge.

    Cost would depend on just how the connection was made.

    Underground would be more expensive than aerial if aerial was allowed – more poles and wires.

  18. And every time there is an electrical storm in Sydney my internet slows down to a snail’s pace! It just wouldn’t happen with a fibre internet. 🙁

  19. Roger Miller@976

    Bemused
    No. The POTS network gets turned off 18 months after ready for service. Who knows what will happen with FTTN as bugger all is ready for service.

    What constitutes ‘ready for service’ with FTTDP?

    Any premises not connected to the DP are certainly not ‘ready for service’ in any meaningful sense.

  20. Cost will depend on what NBN Co decide to charge. There is no guarantee that will bare any relation to the amount of work required.

  21. I’m not sure what game ScoMo thinks he’s playing here, but I can’t see it working out well for the Turncoat government:

    [ Treasurer Scott Morrison has threatened to kill off any reform of the GST, warning state counterparts that if they want to use the extra revenue simply to prop up their budgets, he is not interested in doing a deal.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gst-rise-all-but-dead-as-scott-morrison-says-he-wont-prop-up-states-budgets-20151209-glj426.html

  22. NBN have been working on FTTN for over two years and I don’t think they know how RFS and cut over will work. HCF is hardly on the drawing board yet. Who knows how FTTDp would work.
    In contrast FTTP is a known quantity that NBN could ramp up RIGHT NOW.

  23. [21.WWP
    Fibre on demand is a myth. NBN won’t do it. They will erect ludicrous procedural barriers to prevent you from getting it. It is available in theory only]

    With the current NBN I have no doubt you are right it is run by a group of clowns crooks and lairs handpicked by Captain Cayman.

    But lets say the cost was $250, against a saving to NBN of $100 per premise but at a substantial instal time advantage.

    The perhaps I wouldn’t mind.

    It would be much faster than a stupid node and could be upgraded for need. Assuming of course that they don’t put less fibre capacity in the street to save money

  24. TPOF,

    The GST is a State tax.

    Everything else flows to the Feds.

    It’s a negotiating ploy to force the States to accept the increase in the GST.

    Morrison wants room to provide Tax relief in the Budget so the Libs have a fig leaf.

  25. [The GST is a State tax.]

    It isn’t a states tax at all.

    This is another reason for shorten to increase the GST unilaterally to 12.5% it would put this ridiculous Howard lie to bed forever.

  26. WeWantPaul@994

    The GST is a State tax.


    It isn’t a states tax at all.

    This is another reason for shorten to increase the GST unilaterally to 12.5% it would put this ridiculous Howard lie to bed forever.

    Shorten is LOTO, he can’t do anything.

    Your advocacy of a 12.5% GST is tedious and wrong.

  27. [“Where as campbell led LNP to the worst result in Qld history.”]

    A posting of a moron.

    Campbell led the LNP to a 1 seat defeat, nowhere near worst result in QLD History.

    But I know you do try… a little too hard at time.

  28. Following Turnbulls dramatic plunge in poularity Tony has decided to come out & help the PM as much as possible, by showing the Australian public how very lucky they are that he still isn’t PM.

    Tony is also going to take the Christmas break to do some research on the Islamic Liberal reform movement, he will seek Cardianl Pells advice on this & other issues to do with being a lapsed / sinful Catholic.

    Pell will seek guidance from Tony on how to reform the Catholic Church so it no longer protects pedophiles.

    Australia will be so much better off in the new year due to their efforts, as a reward the new Pesident of the USA , Donald Trump will visit Australia to help launch Tony’s campaigne to be elected PM at the forthcoming Fedral election

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Muslim_movements

  29. TBA,

    How many elections have the LNP run in Queensland.

    You’ve just pwned yourself.

    The fact he had such a commanding majority and pissed it up against the wall should be considered as well.

  30. GG

    The GST is a Commonwealth tax (i.e. levied under Commonwealth law) with the proceeds going to the States and Territories according to a complex formula. Under current Commonwealth legislation, any change to the GST (rate or application) requires the agreement of all the States and Territories. However, both the power to change, any changes themselves and the allocation of any additional proceeds of any changes can be amended by Commonwealth law, without any essential requirement for State/Territory legislation (despite the language of the current Act).

    The allocation of the proceeds of the current tax to the States and Territories was devised as a way of getting them on board and eliminating a slew of inefficient taxes levied by the States and Territories because they needed the money. There is nothing about the GST that is quintessentially a State Tax.

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