Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Turnbull’s stellar personal ratings take a hit in the latest Newspoll, but the two-party result remains unchanged despite the government’s bumpy ride last week.

The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,069 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 22
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  1. WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, December 8, 2015 at 12:20 am | PERMALINK
    it is worse than i thought the commonwealth is funding effectively 10% of the risk and then getting zero CGT. it is simply commonwealth funding rich people – it is ridiculous.

    unless it only applies to self funding

    ——————-yes, and its in MT’s dna to think of this, this is the real person …… forget presentation, this is no job interview, what matters is policy and ideology, and MT is wrong person at top for australia at present

  2. And this from Laurie Oakes over weekend

    [AFTER toppling Tony Abbott in the Liberal leadership ballot on the night of September 14, Malcolm Turnbull held a news conference and then headed for Warren Truss’s office.

    The National Party leader was with colleagues, including his deputy, Barnaby Joyce, and party director Scott Mitchell, plus key staffers, discussing what should be included in a revised Coalition agreement.

    Turnbull stuck his head through the door, looked around the room, and then announced: “I own more cattle than all of you.”]

    The message was plain. He might be a city slicker, Turnbull was saying, and the Nats might not trust him, but he had firm links to rural Australia and several pastoral properties to prove it.

  4. davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, December 8, 2015 at 12:20 am | PERMALINK
    MB the revised bankruptcy provisions only apply to start-ups not existing business. I doubt banks will be lending without security over real assets.

    ——-apparently there’s all this investment money out there for start ups …. so this is an incentive for people to invest? abbott was a boxer, but malcolm for lovechild of start up telco???

  6. [There is a very long history of indigenous people living around dingos and it doesn’t appear in their collective history.]

    It does tho. There are stories warning of the dangers of dingoes. That they attack children and that they abduct and raise them away from their families.

    While these stories seem to be primarily as a way of reinforcing to children and new parents the importance of not letting children too far from camp or supervision some specifically warn of the dangers of dingoes attacking unsupervised kids. I heard one specific one years ago. Tho i’ve forgotten who told it or their country. I know where they weren’t from (Bundjalung) – thats about it.

  7. Looking at Business investment, I am not sure that there is much appetite for risky investment in Australia, we need something to get the investment community engaged, I am not sure making it easier to go bankrupt is necessarily the best way to encourage such investment.

  8. [8.Looking at Business investment, I am not sure that there is much appetite for risky investment in Australia, we need something to get the investment community engaged, I am not sure making it easier to go bankrupt is necessarily the best way to encourage such investment.]

    Nothing will change except types like Malcolm will pay much much less tax after investing in no brainers like ozemail.

  9. It’s more about encouraging experimentation than encouraging investment – though that may be a side effect in some cases. Try something, fail, get back on your feet and try something else. Rather than: try something, fail, get burned out.

    There certainly is little reason to encourage such behaviour in well understood domains/fields or with well understood products/services.

  10. MB that’s only one small part of a more comprehensive range of policies. But look if it’s too hard for Australia then we can just keep inventing spiffy new things and leave it up to the Americans and Chinese to commercially develop the ideas. We have been good at that.

  11. It’s like science. You don’t hear about the thousands of failures, dead ends and backtracks inbetween the great discoveries, so you get an incorrect image of a process that appears far more directed/designed/guided by human intellect than it actually is.

  12. Davidwh

    I don’t have an issue with the idea of encouraging risks, however Australia has become too risk averse in my view, we only need to see how investors start getting nervous when a business looks to expand offshore into the Asian region, despite the clear benefits of having some exposure to the region.

  13. [107
    mexicanbeemer
    I am not sure that there is much appetite for risky investment in Australia, we need something to get the investment community engaged    ]

    Agreed. I think a government bank similar to the CEFC could participate in seed funding with the aim of leading to private investment. Obviously, some seed investments would fail, but just as with the CEFC, this organisation would work to the aim of creating a return.

  14. WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, December 8, 2015 at 12:35 am | PERMALINK
    8.Looking at Business investment, I am not sure that there is much appetite for risky investment in Australia, we need something to get the investment community engaged, I am not sure making it easier to go bankrupt is necessarily the best way to encourage such investment.

    Nothing will change except types like Malcolm will pay much much less tax after investing in no brainers like ozemail.

    ———– thank you point taken ozemail – i forgot the brand. did he loose creditors money?

  16. MB agree completely and we seem to have both Labor and the Libs wanting to change that. It’s a good area for some bi-partisan cooperation.

  17. [There is a very long history of indigenous people living around dingos and it doesn’t appear in their collective history.]

    It does tho. There are stories warning of the dangers of dingoes. That they attack children and that they abduct and raise them away from their families.

    While these stories seem to be primarily as a way of reinforcing to children and new parents the importance of not letting children too far from camp or supervision some specifically warn of the dangers of dingoes attacking unsupervised kids. I heard one specific one years ago. Tho i’ve forgotten who told it or their country. I know where they weren’t from but thats about it.

    Azaria Chamberlain wasn’t the only child to be killed by dingoes, she wasn’t even the most recent child to be killed by dingoes.

    There are dingoes that sometimes hang round my house (when its dry they drink from the troughs and one in particular likes the avocados from the tree at the back door.) We consider them a potential threat to our kid(s), and if I ever get the slightest inkling they considered our kids a potential meal or just something to attack I’ll shoot them without hesitation.

  19. Turnbull’s verbiage about the NBN is not just about ego, it also suggests something of the character of his thought processes regarding innovation.

    His is a centralised model. You foster innovation by pulling all the required parts (people, ideas, material) into one location. This creates a bottleneck and is far from being agile, despite his mindless repetition of the word.

    The (not mutually exclusive) alternative to the above is to build networks, reduce the cost of resources so that they are available to everyone, and provide scaffolding so that individuals or small groups can get by with minimal apparatus.

  20. Shorten can’t even get the ALP voters to support him as PPM.

    ALP stuck on 33 FP despite the train wreck of last week for the LNP.

    It will reach Gillardesque proportions of disaster for the ALP if Turnbull actually does something positive like cut taxes and reduce spending. Albo won’t want the leadership if it came with hot and cold running beer.

    We can kiss goodbye to all the money being wasted in the Innovation statement. It will fail in the same way all previous attempts at this kind of policy has in the past. There are very good reasons why most successful startups will occur out of Silicon Valley – it’s no different to why Soccer and Basketball in Australia will always be second rate compared to the big overseas competitions.

    And to those financial whiz kids saying that Australian Investors and Banks are too risk adverse – complete and utter bollocks. Australia’s investment risk tolerance is no different to other countries. Our resource sector demonstrates that there is significant high risk capital available in Australia.

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher wonders why political parties use terrorism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-need-to-harden-up-unreasonable-fear-of-terrorism-serves-the-enemy-20151207-glhkt0.html
    Peter Reith says Barnaby Joyce should be worried by Macfarlane’s move.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/barnaby-joyce-should-be-worried-the-nationals-might-choose-ian-macfarlane-as-leader-over-him-20151207-glh4cq.html
    Go for it ATO. Go!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/ato-targets-private-school-parents-hiding-secret-offshore-money-20151207-glh558.html
    Mark Kenny says Turnbull is determined to “not be an Abbott”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/charging-the-negative-particles-malcolm-turnbull-positions-himself-as-the-evangelist-of-change-20151206-glgzj9.html
    Pell’s days in the CA Royal Commission are promising to be more and more interesting by the day.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/george-pell-accused-of-joking-about-gerald-ridsdales-abuse-of-children-20151207-glhlmd.html
    Yesterday at the Royal Commission.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/07/george-pell-very-concerned-for-paedophile-victim-david-ridsdale-inquiry-hears
    The medical profession is quite concerned over a new type of “super drug” that has it the streets.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/12/07/drug-testing-stereosonic-deaths/
    Peter Wicks has a whole lot of juicy stuff in this article.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/exs-and-ohs-jackson-investigation-looking-like-a-game-changer/
    Is the sale of Medibank Private proving to be the thin end of the wedge that we thought it might be>
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/sickest-private-patients-may-be-pushed-into-public-system-by-medibank-private-deal-20151207-glhhd6.html
    Employers’ dirty trick to pay you less.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/12/07/drug-testing-stereosonic-deaths/

  22. Section 2 . . .

    Reward for all that hard work!
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/07/former-treasurer-joe-hockey-set-to-be-named-us-ambassador
    Here’s a good firsthand account of the plight of Syrian refugees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/mandy-patinkin-what-i-saw-in-the-faces-of-refugees-20151206-glgxvp.html
    The scourge of international cyberhacking.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-hacking-attacks-are-more-than-just-a-nuisance-20151207-glhc4e.html
    Greg Jericho looks at how the GST could be increased almost fairly.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/07/we-can-raise-the-gst-and-keep-the-tax-system-progressive-but-its-a-tricky-sell
    Could Australia lead the new sustainability boom?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sustainability–its-the-world-boom-that-australia-could-lead-20151206-glgses.html
    Leigh Sales stood up to Turnbull last night.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leigh-sales-shuts-down-malcolm-turnbull-in-abc-730-interview-20151207-glhsbu.html
    A good “View from the Street” this morning.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-innovation-boom–shake-the-room-20151207-glhl8n.html
    Tony Wright with an expose of the dangers of shipping deregulation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/call-to-revoke-licence-for-alcoas-foreign-ship-as-captains-bribes-revealed-20151207-glhids.html
    Dick Smith on Dick Smith.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/dick-smith-not-surprised-dick-smith-shares-have-bombed-20151207-glhgdm.html
    D-Day approaches for the change over to the Opal Card in Sydney and a lot of people are concerned. It’s not so much the system that’s the problem, rather it’s the access to it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/pensioners-stock-up-on-paper-tickets-ahead-of-opal-deadline-20151207-glh85m.html

  23. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    This Chinese restaurant takes the prize – of sorts!
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/how-a-perth-chinese-restaurant-looks-after-years-of-cooking-but-no-cleaning-20151206-glgyb0.html
    David Pope returns to juxtapose innovation and budget policies.

    Ron Tandberg and the weather.

    Mark Knight in the ideas warehouse.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b0a001ca0c07b640740ca34aff5edc33?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    Jon Kudelka on the defection of Ian Macfarlane.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f7a07626102c8219521b040c883c9264
    David Rowe in the innovation laboratory.

  24. TBA @ 33:

    Christ if this is a shot across Mal’s bow.. the HMAS Shorten must be graped shot, greek fired, the captain and crew, hung, drawn and quartered on the deck then fed to the sharks, and the the boat scuttled and sent to the bottom of the deep blue seas.

    I hate to agree with him, but he’s right you know.

  26. Thank you BK.

    A 16 point Netsat turnaround must be close to a poll-to-poll record.

    I am sure that Mr Bowe would know.

    There is only one winner out of this Newspoll: Abbott!

  27. Five point movement in PPM as well.

    Turnbull’s Thousand Year Reich is already looking a bit shaky.

    ‘The Australian’ is busy doing ‘look at Shorten’ but the real story is ‘look at Turnbull’.

    Abbott must be pissing himself laughing.

    He has had a couple of big wins. Turnbull has been whacked in his netsat plus Abbott has got himself a cheap beer fridge.

  30. mexican

    Triggs did not offload her child and never see her again —

    [Professor Triggs said she had initially left Victoria with the carer at weekends but eventually, with work and family commitments increasing, she reversed the arrangement so the carer looked after her during the week.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/print/gillian-triggs-tells-of-giving-up-disabled-daughter/news-story/f7aae1fe235d4e71ae2d1293773d4361

    As for your accusation that this was uncaring behaviour, given that Triggs had two other children, both toddlers, to care for at the time, she would not have been able to give the same level of care to her disabled daughter that a full time carer, with sole responsibility for her, could.

    It would appear that you’d have preferred Triggs to have given up her two other children.

  31. So Margie is putting Tony in the garage! Spare bed, fridge, microwave, exercise bike, treadmill and rower. All he needs. Will Peta stay over?

  33. I posted some tweets from Laurie Oakes last night in response to Truffles with Leigh Sales. Not sure if I posted this one, but it also would describe another former PM

    [LaurieOakes
    LaurieOakes – Verified account ‏@LaurieOakes

    PM was both spinning and spinning away.Blairish.Leigh was right to call him on it .abc730]

  34. Neil Mitchell’s promo on 3aw this morning:

    “While Bill Shorten hits a record low the cracks are appearing for Malcolm Turnbull”.

  35. Mexican

    You are being far too judgemental. A mother with two toddlers is in fact irresponsible to keep a severely disabled child at home, unless there is no other choice. Are the other two children to be deprived of trips to the park, movies, swimming, visits to grandparents, holidays etc because of the need to care for a severely disabled child. That is the reality, especially as the child grows.

    It is hard enough in any family to cope with the demands of the second youngest child, who often feels displaced by the arrival of the baby. What must this be like where the youngest is disabled and takes even more of the parent’s attention?

  36. [ iron ore is now finally trading with a $US30 handle. Ore with 62 per cent iron content delivered to Qingdao fell 2.4 per cent overnight to $US39.06 a dry ton]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/need2know-negative-sentiment-prevails-20151207-glhuki.html#ixzz3tfkcD9fz

    UBS analyst Glyn Lawcock estimates Rinehart’s Roy Hill operation with breakeven iron ore price of $US41 a tonne.

    BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have breakeven prices of $US35 per tonne and $US33 per tonne.

    Fortescue Metals’ break even price is $US57 per tonne, according to UBS research.

    Grange Resources, like Fortescue, has a breakeven price of $US57 per tonne. BC Iron has a breakeven of $US61 per tonne, while Atlas Iron’s $US64 per tonne and Mount Gibson is $US54 per tonne.

    Some of them may have been able to reduce some of their costs in recent times – but still.

    Not good news for the budget either.

  37. Darn

    Keep us posted re Neil Mitchell. I found his rant posted here re JBishop and her $30,000 private jet extravagance very entertaining and on the money.

  38. Just to re-emphasise what a dud metric these popularity polls are, is to refer, once again, to North Sydney where Turnbull’s popularity did nothing to stem the flow of a 14% swing against his Government.

    But I’m sure the chatterers will keep up the chatting.

  40. What was the Albo said about MT being a complete waffler who can’t make a clear statement?

    The 730 report was a good example.

    Talcum comes on as someone smart but ill-prepared. Like he’s mostly winging it in debates.

  43. Good morning all and thank you for this mornings patrol BK.

    It’s nice to see zoomster at 130 and dtt at 135 on the same page for once, especially as I agree with them.

    I have a particular dislike of judging parents – especially mothers. It is a tough job and parents make plenty of mistakes, sometimes very serious ones, out of love, concern and good intentions. Bad parents are the ones who brutalise their children or sexually assault them, not the ones who try to make the best decisions without any knowledge of the future or how things will turn out as their children develop and change.

    In the case of Gillian Triggs, it is a ludicrously false equivalence to judge someone’s public duties as an office holder on the basis of decisions made in their unique personal circumstances.

    As Human Rights Commissioner, her job was to ensure that the Commonwealth’s objective and legal human rights obligations were met, especially in situations where it had a particular duty of care. It was not to judge it by the standard of her personal and private decision-making about her circumstances.

    The attack on her personally by scum like Akerman (and I do not include MB here who made it clear that he was distinguishing between the two) is misogynistic bullying. If Allan Brown (Trigg’s husband) was the HRC, rather than her, you can bet that that nobody would have played the bad father card.

  47. I agree with TPOF, zoomster and DTT. Not everyone has the physical and emotional strength to deal with a disabled child. I know I haven’t. Triggs tried to make the best decision she could under her particular circumstances.

  48. That whole story of Gillian Triggs and her disabled child was a disgusting effort by the Abbott Government and its media allies to force Gillian Triggs’ resignation so that Abbott and Brandis could be ‘rid of this troublesome priest’. Obviously something, probably the only thing, that deep digging by the Liberal-Newscorp dirt units could come up with.

    Why should Gillian defend herself? She was in a terrible situation that few of us have to face. She did the best she could when all choices available were bad. As to those who exploit the issue, they are beneath contempt.

  49. From the loonpond transcript of Turnbull’s interview (thanks Shea McDuff).

    [LEIGH SALES: … but there’s a leak of internal NBN documents to The Australian newspaper showing that the copper network is in such poor shape that the company has to spend 10-fold what it had planned to spend to whip it into shape.
    MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well that’s simply not true.
    LEIGH SALES: Alright. Let’s move on.]

    Point one: I noticed Turnbull was getting a little pink in the face. Uncomfortable with his own fibs, perhaps?

    Point two: These are short interviews, not extended conversations. When faced with a direct denial, an interviewer can make the choice to spend more minutes arguing and eliciting more denials, or can allow the audience to make their own judgement and move on. This has been discussed by a couple of journos (sorry, no reference).

  50. John Setka and his deputy are fronting up to the Melbourne Magistrates court at 9.30 am. Hundreds of CFMEU members are in front of court to support them. The streets surrounding the area have been blocked off and police are guarding the area. Fun and games

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