The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.
[“You paid for her disabled child?”]
No… I pay her wages every week.
[“Ye TBA, but she’s the 2015 Woman of the Year, isn’t she?.”]
But that’s the thing though.. she’s not.
Daily Life is an online feminist shit sheet written by Fairfax press… and of no significance.
Maybe Crikey will do a man of the year and you can boldly proclaim it’s importance as well.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-has-bill-shorten-at-14pc-in-preferred-pm-stakes/news-story/008fe21277214d337f55c9dba0961d43
According to the graphs on this article, Greens 12%, Coalition 45%, ALP 33%, Other 10%
TPOF
Without knowing all the details it can be a difficult matter but it seems she let the child go and had nothing further to do with it.
The challenge of being a carer is undervalued and I would like to see more done in the area.
TBA, 51
So what’s your point, if you’re not paying for her child? That’s what we’re discussing. I’m sure your clients don’t want daily updates about your private life, just because they pay you.
Big lead still, but the honeymoon is over.
The LNP has been a complete shambles the past week. Defections, Brough’s fraudulence, Abbott attacking Bishop, Workchoices raising its ugly head, Hunt embarrassing us all in Paris, appointing that loser Hockey as Ambo to the US.
If journos could stop rimming Talcum for a minute, they might notice all is not well with the government.
can anyone explain why focus on bankruptcy is a kick start to new economy – post mining – did turnbull himself benefit from bankruptcy provisons in past? doesn’t someone lose out in bankruptcy, eg creditors? aren’t the law already too liberal in this country? why should anyone be rewarded for failing esp with money that is not their own? where is labor on this?
TBA
I believe the child is deceased, but that is according to Wikipedia
TBA did you hear Turnbull invited Triggs for afternoon tea recently. Very cordial I heard.
And to prove my point… Juliar Dillard was “Woman of the Year” 2012.
I mean you can’t make this stuff up
Nice try TBA. Australia is signatory to both the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and the Refugee Convention, and part of the HRC’s role is to ensure that Australia’s commitment to human rights is upheld.
Section 11 of the Australian Human Rights Act 1986 explicitly states that part of the HRC’s role is:
[to examine enactments, and (when requested to do so by the Minister) proposed enactments, for the purpose of ascertaining whether the enactments or proposed enactments, as the case may be, are, or would be, inconsistent with or contrary to any human right, and to report to the Minister the results of any such examination; and
(f) to inquire into any act or practice that may be inconsistent with or contrary to any human right, and:
(i) where the Commission considers it appropriate to do so–to endeavour, by conciliation, to effect a settlement of the matters that gave rise to the inquiry; and
(ii) where the Commission is of the opinion that the act or practice is inconsistent with or contrary to any human right, and the Commission has not considered it appropriate to endeavour to effect a settlement of the matters that gave rise to the inquiry or has endeavoured without success to effect such a settlement–to report to the Minister in relation to the inquiry; and
(g) to promote an understanding and acceptance, and the public discussion, of human rights in Australia]
In investigating and reporting the Abbott Government’s (and yes, the previous Labor Government’s) abuse of the rights of children in detention, the HRC, led by Triggs was simply upholding its legislative duty, as outlined in the act above.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ahrca1986373/s11.html
Triggs kinda embodies the gaping ideological fault line in the LNP. It wont end happily.
TBA
The irony is that the Liberals preselected Sophie Mirrabella and we would be familiar with her alleged behavior over a will.
Surely the Indi Liberals could have found someone with better morals.
Then there is Mal Brough
O dear the skeletons in the LNP closet
[Then there is Mal Brough
O dear the skeletons in the LNP closet]
Not to mention Roy and Pyne – who have not even been touched on yet.
mexicanbeemer@53
As usual you don’t know all the details and yet you are content to disparage.
[Well we had the February revolution in September, when will the October Revolution be?]
It could be one of those Gregorian vs Julian calendar mix-ups.
Bemused
As I explained I have a default position of questioning anyone who is clearly wealthy enough to care for a child yet seems to have disowned the child.
If Triggs came out calling for more support for parents of disabled children I would be the first to congratulate her.
Being a carer is extremely challenging but a wealthy parent should be able to provide something for that child rather than appearing to wipe ones hands of the child as they want to focus on the normal child and their career.
If and she may kept in touch with the child but it seems she didn’t.
This isn’t an anti Triggs statement, I respect the job she does but I just don’t take kindly to the mistreatment of the disabled.
Well I think it is safe to say that the honeymoon is over, and high tide for Turbull, even at neap levels, has been and gone….in only 2-3 months.
What was the swing against the Liberals in North Sydney? And this is supposedly a rolled-gold Liberal area.
On the other hand, to use a well-worn phrase…Bill is just not “cutting through” at the moment.
A better picture will emerge when Turnbull actually does something and/or says something which does not go down well with the electorate.
There is a lot brewing on the LNP side of politics which is messy to say the least.
However, LNP supporters and Labor supporters are happy/sad that Abbott is gone.
As the Bard kind of said…One Turnbull, does not a summer make….or something like that.
[45
Nicholas
The Coalition is sitting pretty on 45%. Labor is flailing about on 33%. Not good.]
True, it’s not good. But it remains to be seen whether those numbers will stay that way. Turnbull has a disunited party as well as his promises to continue with unpopular Abbott era policies to contend with.
Let’s also not forget that he technically leads a first term government, and the public are still hoping that Turnbull succeeds. Consequently, they’re not really listening to Labor.
Nevertheless, Labor has policies in the pipeline and will present a strong alternative at the next election (not to mention the fact that the ALP is actually stable, even in the face of bad polls – this is no small achievement).
Your problem, Nicholas, is that you are too impatient.
Geoffrey #56 my understanding the bankruptcy revision to 12 months only relates to start-up business. It’s meant to encourage more risk-taking at that start-up phase. The theory seems to be that current bankruptcy provisions are a brake on people prepared to take that first step in developing new ideas through to a commercial reality.
mexicanbeemer@67
A child can be so profoundly disabled that it is beyond the capacity of any family to care for. Or the child can have such an impact on the family that the other children are adversely affected as I think was the case.
I suggest you refrain from being so judgemental.
[The theory seems to be that current bankruptcy provisions are a brake on people prepared to take that first step in developing new ideas through to a commercial reality.]
Is there some study perhaps evidence for this? Like how long they will be stuck in bankruptcy is stopping people from starting brilliant innovative businesses. Is is quite silly.
Like the CGT cut, do you really think people are failing to start exciting innovative businesses because there is a CGT if they are super successful.
Both concepts are ridiculous brain fartz that shouldn’t fool anyone.
Mex B
[Without knowing all the details it can be a difficult matter but it seems she let the child go and had nothing further to do with it.]
Quite apart from the fact that this has nothing to do with her duties as Human Rights Commission, the simple fact is that neither of us know enough detail around the circumstances in which she placed her daughter with the other family and the extent of her contacts with her daughter subsequently.
In those circumstances I refuse to pass judgement. Just as I refuse to engage in the salacious gossip around Tony and Marge Abbott. Not relevant, nor appropriate for public discussion.
WB and jules
[Now let’s narrow that down to babies being murdered within proximity of dingos, so that the statistic means something.]
While there are cases of children being attacked by dingoes, there isn’t a single case of a dingo abducting and murdering an infant. There is a very long history of indigenous people living around dingos and it doesn’t appear in their collective history.
Of course that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen but it seems to be a very rare event, compared to a fairly common event. I’m an Occam’s Razor kind of person.
Bemused
If Triggs and I accept she is the Human Rights commissioner, not the disability commissioner, but if she and maybe she has and I’ve missed it, ever started pushing for more support for families of disabled children, I for one would fully support her.
Diogenes@74
Local aborigines had no trouble believing it had happened and tracked the dingo for a distance.
mexicanbeemer@75
Irrelevant waffle.
TPOF
I agree with you and this is why I didn’t go into my issues earlier but Jimmy suggested that I might like to take a look at an article that demonstrated her compassion.
My main point is that I don’t take kindly to the mistreatment of the disabled and would like to see more done to help families in such situations, maybe Triggs can help with that although it might be outside the scope of her current role.
WeWantPaul
Posted Monday, December 7, 2015 at 11:57 pm | PERMALINK
The theory seems to be that current bankruptcy provisions are a brake on people prepared to take that first step in developing new ideas through to a commercial reality.
Is there some study perhaps evidence for this? Like how long they will be stuck in bankruptcy is stopping people from starting brilliant innovative businesses. Is is quite silly.
Like the CGT cut, do you really think people are failing to start exciting innovative businesses because there is a CGT if they are super successful.
Both concepts are ridiculous brain fartz that shouldn’t fool anyone.
————–the intuitive cynic in me thinks this is a base attempt to remove regulation for shady business practices — and that it is in the dna of MT – if so it is paydirt day for the beautiful duckling
i meant groundhog day but actually paydirt is also ok – paydirt for the groundhog — turnbull’s dna is not good blood – it will be his undoing
[LaurieOakes
LaurieOakes – Verified account @LaurieOakes
So much for Malcolm Turnbull’s straight-taking image.#abc730
12:57 AM – 7 Dec 2015
127 RETWEETS91 LIKES]
66
The difference was only 13 days then and it has not changed because 2000 was divisible by 400 and thus a leap year under both calendars.
Yes paying cgt on only half of a massive gain isn’t enough for captain Cayman.
The bankruptcy stuff will play well to the small business set.
[Lenore Taylor @lenoretaylor 29m29 minutes ago
Julie Bishop gives Malcolm Turnbull’s innovation statement an airing on the world stage in Paris http://gu.com/p/4epa9/stw #auspol]
Anything other than Direct Action.
There may be an unintended downside to the bankruptcy changes, banks maybe be concerned about increased bad loans on their books, we know that banks already have higher risk ratings for business loans.
victoria:
Where has Oakes been the last 10 years?
[70
davidwh
my understanding the bankruptcy revision to 12 months only relates to start-up business. It’s meant to encourage more risk-taking at that start-up phase. The theory seems to be that current bankruptcy provisions are a brake on people prepared to take that first step in developing new ideas through to a commercial reality.]
If the new bankruptcy provisions are indeed strictly limited to genuine start-ups attempting innovation (as opposed to shell companies set up with the aim of circumventing taxes and regulations), then that indeed would be a good thing. However, they will amount to nothing unless Turnbull can somehow ‘persuade’ investors and lenders to be less conservative when it comes to investing in new technology and start-up companies.
Turnbull, with his anti-government worldview, would never go for it, but a government bank, similar to ARENA and the CEFC, could have a really positive role in seed funding, so that start-ups could then demonstrate to more conservative investors and lenders that they are a good bet.
Tom
[The difference was only 13 days then and it has not changed because 2000 was divisible by 400 and thus a leap year under both calendars.]
Yes, but we are working on the Abbottian Calendar now.
[LaurieOakes
LaurieOakes – Verified account @LaurieOakes
“@LaLegale: @LaurieOakes @TurnbullMalcolm introduces new paradigm into political discourse. Many resist.”No,old paradigm.Dodging questions.]
the nbn answers tonight were atrocious …. as was his patronising approach to interviewer …. he thinks he can get away with charm
The point of of fiddling with bankruptcy is to encourage experimentation.
88
The Abbottian Calendar.
Every day is revenge day.
Thermidor cannot come soon enough.
There seems to be this image of people getting together and saying “let’s go innovate/invent X”. I think it mostly doesn’t work that way.
MB the revised bankruptcy provisions only apply to start-ups not existing business. I doubt banks will be lending without security over real assets.
displayname
still dont get it
do start ups borrow much or get investments funds – what its ok to spend and not give a return
it is worse than i thought the commonwealth is funding effectively 10% of the risk and then getting zero CGT. it is simply commonwealth funding rich people – it is ridiculous.
unless it only applies to self funding
Diogenes
[Yes, but we are working on the Abbottian Calendar now.]
Where every year is 1956.
Fess
I dont recall what Laurie Oakes was saying about Turnbull when he was OL back in the day. But he doesnt seem impressed witn him now
Requiring that the only businesses that get started in new, experimental fields are those confidently predicted to be successful ahead of time sets an incredibly difficult bar to pass.
victoria:
I caught parts of the 730 interview in news reports. MT was his usual waffler.