Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Turnbull’s stellar personal ratings take a hit in the latest Newspoll, but the two-party result remains unchanged despite the government’s bumpy ride last week.

The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,069 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 13 of 22
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  1. [563
    lizzie@
    TonyAbbottMHR says he will ‘correct the record when the record is falsified’    ]

    Tony Abbott: “When I lie, it’s ok. When other people lie, they are sinners in the eyes of God.”

  2. [Yes, when I first suggested it here there was general laughter.]

    Not my recollection. Most all of us have pegged Turnbull as the puppet of the rightwing and that if he doesn’t do their bidding he’ll be gone. Essentially, the rightwing using him to win the next election and be dumped afterward, replaced by an Abbottobad like Abbott himself or Morrison.

  5. .@TonyAbbottMHR notes @BarackObama referred to Islamic State as a cult of death during his oval office address #pmlive

    Yeah, and it was dumb and reductionist of him to use that term, but a big difference between him and you is that he doesn’t use it in every sentence on the subject, and he doesn’t make this subject the all-consuming focus of his work.

  6. [It is simply trying to be ‘clever’ by supporting a GST incrfease by a lesser amount.
    ]

    It is either a good idea or it is a bad idea, saying it is too clever just looks like you think it is a bad idea but have absolutely nothing to back it up. Perhaps you are just lazy you could easily mount this case.

    12.5% is a good idea because:

    * Labor lacks economic credibility in large part because it promised some 2000 times it would balance the budget and failed spectacularly. Proposing a tax increase measure that would actually help balance the budget would help regain some credibility.

    * Labor lacks economic credibility on the GST because it has consistently said it just would not consider it as an option. Actually taking it as an option would go some way towards removing the view,based on silly things said by labor, that they are ideologically driven rather than fact driven with respect to a GST increase.

    * The scare campaign that the GST would kill the economy has been run before and the lived experiences of most Australian’s will say the claim is bollocks. So if the claim is that a GST increase is going to be really bad for the economy a 12.5% is better than a 15%. If labor can find an economically credible alternative that they have the courage to stand by you could say that 10% is better than 12.5%, but if Labor have this they haven’t really shared it yet.

    Now Turnbull has polled spectacularly well but I think he has actually performed and governed quite weakly. Turnbull may be bad enough to lose it without Labor needing to take an economically credible platform to the election but I doubt it.

  8. [Yeah, and it was dumb and reductionist of him to use that term, but a big difference between him and you is that he doesn’t use it in every sentence on the subject, and he doesn’t make this subject the all-consuming focus of his work.]

    A red letter day young Nick we agree. And Obama recognises he is impotent and powerless and desperate but must walk the path, Abbott walked it because he is an ignorant racist idiot who actually believed that vile racist idiocy he spewed.

  9. [606
    WeWantPaul
    Labor lacks economic credibility on the GST because it has consistently said it just would not consider it as an option.    ]

    You’re saying that Labor will only have credibility on the GST if they support increasing it? That is patently ridiculous.

    Labor’s argument has always been that raising the GST is unfair and unnecessary when multinationals are avoiding taxes and the rich get massive super concessions.

  10. I’ve commented before that the BoM’s weather predictions are increasingly unreliable.

    Here’s their prediction for our area, issued this afternoon —

    [Humid. Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, becoming less likely later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northeasterly in the evening.]

    We have had major thunderstorms, starting in the afternoon, with an estimated four inches falling in a matter of hours (the local farmer who rescued my car says he hasn’t seen anything like it in eighty years). This has caused landslides (including one cutting the road between Myrtleford and Bright), flash flooding (closing roads), and numerous other weather related incidents – yet there isn’t even a warning on the BoM site.

    Equally concerning, none of these incidents are listed (on last check) on the official emergency website for Victoria.

    The SES said the state has gone crazy today, with fires in the west and flash flooding in the east. It seems the various systems aren’t coping much better than they did during the Black Saturday bushfires.

  11. Zoomster

    Wow. Did not realise that we had extreme weather here in Vic. It was Windy, hot and humid here in Melbourne but otherwise okay.

  13. WeWantPaul@606

    It is simply trying to be ‘clever’ by supporting a GST incrfease by a lesser amount.


    It is either a good idea or it is a bad idea, saying it is too clever just looks like you think it is a bad idea but have absolutely nothing to back it up. Perhaps you are just lazy you could easily mount this case.

    12.5% is a good idea because:

    * Labor lacks economic credibility in large part because it promised some 2000 times it would balance the budget and failed spectacularly. Proposing a tax increase measure that would actually help balance the budget would help regain some credibility.

    * Labor lacks economic credibility on the GST because it has consistently said it just would not consider it as an option. Actually taking it as an option would go some way towards removing the view,based on silly things said by labor, that they are ideologically driven rather than fact driven with respect to a GST increase.

    * The scare campaign that the GST would kill the economy has been run before and the lived experiences of most Australian’s will say the claim is bollocks. So if the claim is that a GST increase is going to be really bad for the economy a 12.5% is better than a 15%. If labor can find an economically credible alternative that they have the courage to stand by you could say that 10% is better than 12.5%, but if Labor have this they haven’t really shared it yet.

    Now Turnbull has polled spectacularly well but I think he has actually performed and governed quite weakly. Turnbull may be bad enough to lose it without Labor needing to take an economically credible platform to the election but I doubt it.

    I understand.

    You have a GST obsession and fail to recognise that there are alternatives.

  14. Not well, but I can only blame stupidity.

    We stopped at the edge of the water but were waved through by a neighbour…should have trusted our instincts.

  16. [You’re saying that Labor will only have credibility on the GST if they support increasing it? That is patently ridiculous.]

    No I’m not saying that, I’m just saying they that by saying so often they aren’t prepared to consider it they have damaged themselves and they can only undo that damage by convincing people they have considered it. They might be able to achieve that without increasing it, I just don’t think they can.

  18. zoomster

    [ I’ve commented before that the BoM’s weather predictions are increasingly unreliable. ]

    I blame the Chinese. Ratf#ckers!

    But I hope you are ok.

  19. zoomster@610

    I’ve commented before that the BoM’s weather predictions are increasingly unreliable.

    Here’s their prediction for our area, issued this afternoon —

    Humid. Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, becoming less likely later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northeasterly in the evening.


    We have had major thunderstorms, starting in the afternoon, with an estimated four inches falling in a matter of hours (the local farmer who rescued my car says he hasn’t seen anything like it in eighty years). This has caused landslides (including one cutting the road between Myrtleford and Bright), flash flooding (closing roads), and numerous other weather related incidents – yet there isn’t even a warning on the BoM site.

    Equally concerning, none of these incidents are listed (on last check) on the official emergency website for Victoria.

    The SES said the state has gone crazy today, with fires in the west and flash flooding in the east. It seems the various systems aren’t coping much better than they did during the Black Saturday bushfires.

    An alternate view is that weather systems are becoming more unstable and hard to predict.

    Thunderstorms were predicted for Melbourne and happened. The max temp was a little higher than predicted, but not by much. The cool change arrived pretty much as predicted.

  20. Ben, Actually
    Ben, Actually – Verified account ‏@bencubby

    Tony Abbott comes out fighting, says he ‘would have won next election’. http://bit.ly/1QcbnAK #auspol
    smh.com.au
    smh.com.au
    [Embedded image
    Abbott says he would have won the election

    Tony Abbott has declared he would have led the Coalition to a victory at the next election, while flagging he intends to stay around in Parliament.
    View on web
    2:24 AM – 8 Dec 2015
    15 RETWEETS4 LIKES]

  21. Good on you, Bill Mitchell. You are a national treasure.

    I have written extensively (alone and with others) on the superiority of employment guarantees over income guarantees. Please read my blog – Employment guarantees are better than income guarantees – for more discussion on this point.

    But if you want a deeper, academic discussion, then we have published several peer-reviewed articles on the topic that the above blog merely summarises.

    In summary, I don’t think humans should be treated as meagre ‘consumption units’ and I oppose the use of a Basic Income Guarantees as the primary means of poverty reduction for the following reasons:

    It creates a dependency on passive welfare payments.
    It creates a stigmatised cohort.
    It does not provide any inflation buffer and is inconsistent with the macroeconomic principles spelt out by MMT.
    It does not provide any capacity building. A BIG treats people who are unable to find adequate market-based work as “consumption” entities and attempts to meet their consumption needs. However, the intrinsic social and capacity building role of participating in paid work is ignored and hence undervalued. It is sometimes said that beyond all the benefits in terms of self-esteem, social inclusion, confidence-building, skill augmentation and the like, a priceless benefit of creating full employment is that the “children see at least one parent going to work each morning”. In other words, it creates an intergenerational stimulus that the BIG approach can never create.
    Unlike the BIG model, the Job Guarantee model meets these conditions within the constraints of a monetary capitalist system.

    The JG is a far better vehicle to rebuild a sense of community and the purposeful nature of work. It is the only real alternative if intergenerational disadvantage is to be avoided.

    It also provides the framework whereby the concept of work itself can be broadened to include activities that many would currently dismiss as being leisure, which is consistent with the aspirations of some BIG advocates.

    There has been considerable research done by social scientists which suggests that people still consider work to be a central aspect of life and there are deep-seated views about deservingness and responsibility for one’s circumstances. These views translate into very firm attitudes about mutual obligation and how much support should be provided to the unemployed.

    These attitudes while mostly unhelpful are ingrained and will take time to shift. Further, most unemployed workers indicate in surveys that they prefer to work rather than be provided with income support.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=32498

  22. [ @TonyAbbottMHR says he has had thousands and thousands of messages of support and encouragement ]

    Unfortunately he needs 6,500,001 to win back the Prime Ministership.

  23. bemused

    I agree – which makes the cuts to BoM even harder to justify.

    That the weather would become more unpredictable was – er – predictable. A responsible government would have invested more funds into weather prediction, not less.

  24. zoomster

    [I’ve commented before that the BoM’s weather predictions are increasingly unreliable. ]
    Soundls like the inevitable result of…….
    [Summer of discontent at BOM

    The Bureau of Meteorology is battling to do its job after years of government-imposed funding cuts according to insiders who warn that lives are at risk as Australia faces this year’s “extreme weather season.”

    Successive “efficiency dividend” cuts have left the Bureau of Meteorology short of staff and battling faulty and ageing equipment, according to insiders and unions.

    The growing unease at the bureau, which finished 2013-2014 nearly $74 million in the red, is being exacerbated by delays in offering a new wage deal to its 1700 public servants who have not had a pay rise since July 2013.]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/summer-of-discontent-at-bom-20150201-133m6r.html

  25. zoomster@623

    bemused

    I agree – which makes the cuts to BoM even harder to justify.

    That the weather would become more unpredictable was – er – predictable. A responsible government would have invested more funds into weather prediction, not less.

    I suspect that they are not good at predicting relatively localised events, but I have to say their forecasts for Melbourne have generally been quite good and the time horizon has been extended over the years.

  26. [616
    WeWantPaul
    They might be able to achieve that without increasing it, I just don’t think they can.]

    But that’s just not true. Getting rid of the diesel subsidy would net $10 billion a year, super tax concessions around $25-$30 billion, and a multinational tax avoidance crackdown might net a few billion. That nearly equals the $45 billion that an increased GST will raise, and is actually more because they would not require compensation, because those increases are inherently equitable.

  27. [You have a GST obsession and fail to recognise that there are alternatives.]

    LoL so you don’t understand a freaking thing. I understand lots of alternatives, some I think are actually quite good many would think are as crazy and Nick’s ideas.

    The GST increase isn’t because I think it is good, it is because I think it is a key to winning the election and doing good, and isn’t all that bad. How bad it is being easily overcome by what good Labor could do if it won with a mandate to fix up super, to remove the CGT discount, to tighten up negative gearing, to take real action on BEPS rather than the current governments lipservice. All these things are more important, and only Labor could be trusted to do them. There isn’t a massive difference in reality between 10% and 12.5% but there is a massive difference in perception. A different I think is big enough to make Labor a real prospect at the election.

    you disagree but only have vague insults and abuse and clear indications you don’t have a f*cking clue what it is all about.

  28. [ I like the idea of keeping Tony around. It helps keep Malcolm agile, fragile and facile. ]

    And “innovative” in his messaging. 🙂

  29. [But that’s just not true. Getting rid of the diesel subsidy would net $10 billion a year, super tax concessions around $25-$30 billion, and a multinational tax avoidance crackdown might net a few billion. That nearly equals the $45 billion that an increased GST will raise, and is actually more because they would not require compensation, because those increases are inherently equitable.]

    The multinational crackdown nets SFA over 10 years, but your other point is very important there are alternatives, maybe even very attractive vote winning alternatives.

    Lets just take one. The diesel fuel rebate. How did Labor go last time it took on mining companies? Do you think they’ve found a spine and a fighting spirit since?

  32. [ Getting rid of the diesel subsidy would net $10 billion a year, super tax concessions around $25-$30 billion, and a multinational tax avoidance crackdown might net a few billion. That nearly equals the $45 billion that an increased GST will raise, and is actually more because they would not require compensation, because those increases are inherently equitable. ]

    And are all things that SHOULD be done and SEEN to be done BEFORE any changes to the GST are contemplated. Whats the point of changes to the GST when you have to give more than 1/2 of it back in compo??

  33. WeWantPaul@627

    You have a GST obsession and fail to recognise that there are alternatives.


    LoL so you don’t understand a freaking thing. I understand lots of alternatives, some I think are actually quite good many would think are as crazy and Nick’s ideas.

    The GST increase isn’t because I think it is good, it is because I think it is a key to winning the election and doing good, and isn’t all that bad. How bad it is being easily overcome by what good Labor could do if it won with a mandate to fix up super, to remove the CGT discount, to tighten up negative gearing, to take real action on BEPS rather than the current governments lipservice. All these things are more important, and only Labor could be trusted to do them. There isn’t a massive difference in reality between 10% and 12.5% but there is a massive difference in perception. A different I think is big enough to make Labor a real prospect at the election.

    you disagree but only have vague insults and abuse and clear indications you don’t have a f*cking clue what it is all about.

    I have a very clear idea about the GST, how it works and how an increase would impact people.

    I thought the ALP overdid its opposition to the GST when it was introduced as it replaced WST and other taxes.

    ‘Roll back’ was even crazier.

    My attitude to GST is that it is regressive and enough is enough. We don’t want to increase it.

  34. [And are all things that SHOULD be done and SEEN to be done BEFORE any changes to the GST are contemplated. Whats the point of changes to the GST when you have to give more than 1/2 of it back in compo??]

    I think they can only be done if they are linked with a GST increase.

  35. [627
    WeWantPaul
    The GST increase isn’t because I think it is good, it is because I think it is a key to winning the election and doing good, and isn’t all that bad.]

    That’s fair enough, but I disagree that supporting a GST increase is the key to Labor winning the next election. It would alienate it’s own supporters and blunt its election campaign with swing voters in Sydney and Queensland. Besides the message that’s coming from polling on a GST increase is mixed at best.

    Turnbull is not liked in Western Sydney, and if he, a rich guy living in a waterfront mansion in the Eastern Suburbs, tries to argue that the average Australian should pay more tax at the checkout in order to fund tax cuts on big business, it will kill him.

  36. [I have a very clear idea about the GST, how it works and how an increase would impact people.

    I thought the ALP overdid its opposition to the GST when it was introduced as it replaced WST and other taxes.

    ‘Roll back’ was even crazier.

    My attitude to GST is that it is regressive and enough is enough. We don’t want to increase it.]

    I agree largely but think that path will result in you watching the Libs winning the election and increase it to 15% without much at all if any of the real reforms that are needed and more important.

    But i could be wrong, I often am, but you have to have passion about these things or you start to look and sound like Bill.

  37. Zoomster:

    Were you in the vicinity of Carboor Upper late this afternoon? Not to reveal sources, but I did hear word that a car was plucked out the drink in that area … thankfully everyone inside was OK.

  38. [Turnbull is not liked in Western Sydney, and if he, a rich guy living in a waterfront mansion in the Eastern Suburbs, tries to argue that the average Australian should pay more tax at the checkout in order to fund tax cuts on big business, it will kill him.]

    This is a fundamental point and I hope you are right, but i think your average punter is already of a view that the GST increase to 15% to help the budget is a necessary evil. Noone in their right mind will say they want it, but I think (and i could be wrong I hope I’m wrong) they have accepted that it is coming and that it is needed. I think they would respond to either Malcolm or Bill saying ‘this is needed, if I will I’ll do it.’

    Neither Malcolm or Bill however are showing any sign of an outbreak of courage or honesty, so really the election would be in my view Malcolm’s to win or lose, he is ahead on economic credibility and I don’t think without a courageous platform Bill can bridge that so Malcolm would need to do really badly elsewhere to lose it.

  39. [I’ve commented before that the BoM’s weather predictions are increasingly unreliable.]

    As a weather nerd and someone who watches and gets weather data almost 24/7 I can say with all honesty that this is not my experience.

  40. BOM recently suffered a computer hacking attack. BOM links to government agencies and their new super doper computer make it an attractive target. That attack may be having an effect as they try and make sure it is still secure.

  41. WeWantPaul@636

    I have a very clear idea about the GST, how it works and how an increase would impact people.

    I thought the ALP overdid its opposition to the GST when it was introduced as it replaced WST and other taxes.

    ‘Roll back’ was even crazier.

    My attitude to GST is that it is regressive and enough is enough. We don’t want to increase it.


    I agree largely but think that path will result in you watching the Libs winning the election and increase it to 15% without much at all if any of the real reforms that are needed and more important.

    But i could be wrong, I often am, but you have to have passion about these things or you start to look and sound like Bill.

    So rather than say ‘no’ to a GST increase, you would say ‘yes, but not too much’.

    So you are not arguing a principle any more, just the amount.

    GST could, I suppose, be used as an alternative to garner support for other tax measures. “Agree to dropping the fuel rebate or we will be forced to put up GST” as an example.

  42. WWP – the industry super funds are somewhat supportive of getting rid of the super concessions for the rich, and besides wouldn’t they be stashing their money in self-managed funds any way?

    As for the diesel rebate, there are numerous grounds on whixh it could be justified: climate, equity, budget repair etc. What’s more, a majority of Australians always supported the mining tax, so to this day I don’t understand why Labor lost its nerve. However, whether or not Labor can hold its nerve is not a reason to support increasing the GST when that is clearly inferior policy.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-27/bagwell-super-tax-breaks-must-be-addressed/6887130

  43. [638
    WWP
    Neither Malcolm or Bill however are showing any sign of an outbreak of courage or honesty    ]

    You’re contradicting yourself. If a GST increase is supported by voters as much as you say, to the point that it becomes an issue of credibility, then surely opposing it is a sign of courage?

    Furthermore, Labor has been honest. It’s not playing silly buggers with the GST, but rather has laid out a crystal clear position. Voters get a genuine choice at the next election – if they think a GST increase is necessary, vote Liberal, if they don’t then Labor.

    Besides, Turnbull is only ahead on economic credibility because he hasn’t said anything of substance. As Doyley said, Turnbull is as hardcore a neoliberal as the rest of his party, and once he starts to demonstrate that, he’ll turn voters off very quickly.

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/gst-talk-spooks-malcolm-turnbulls-backbench-20151108-gktxoa?

  44. [“Whats the point of changes to the GST when you have to give more than 1/2 of it back in compo??”]

    We shouldn’t give any “Compo” back for a GST increase, this constant “compensate” certain groups bullshit has to stop.

    A poor person will never pay anything near what a rich person will pay with an increased GST rate, so they don’t need to be “compensated” for anything.

  46. No Jimmy,

    explain to me WHY some groups have to be “compensated” for a tax increase?

    A tax increase should be across the board, not a pick’n’choose affair. Everyones gotta do their bit to pay down Labors debt… everyone.

    If a wealthy person is paying $10,000 more a year in GST, why shouldn’t a poorer person pay $100 bucks more? Why shouldn’t they contribute ANYTHING? Why must they be “compensated”. It’s horse radish.

  48. The GST is supposed to compensate the poor, restore the cuts health and education, pay for tax cuts, AND fix the budget bottom line.

    I suppose the electorate bought Abbott’s magic pudding, I wonder if they will fall for it twice?

  50. Which is more worse:
    The Libs spending 56 Million to dig and refill a hole for a press conference or
    The Libs spending 40 Billion to give us the broadband we already had

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